The bitcoin treasury company now expects to report between a loss of $5.5 billion and profit of $6.3 billion for the year, down from its October guidance for a profit of $24 billion. ...

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a decline for the third consecutive week, with Bitcoin dropping below $95,000 and a total market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion since October 10 [4] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $390 million [2] Bitcoin Dynamics - Significant selling pressure from "whales" (holders of over 1,000 Bitcoins) and long-term holders has been observed, with approximately 815,000 Bitcoins sold in the last 30 days, marking the highest sell-off level since early 2024 [4] - Whales holding Bitcoin for over seven years are reportedly selling at a rate exceeding 1,000 Bitcoins per hour [4] MicroStrategy Insights - Speculation regarding MicroStrategy potentially selling Bitcoin has increased, with on-chain fund movements raising concerns among market observers [4] - MicroStrategy's stock has declined nearly 32% over the past month, with a market capitalization of $59 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings stands at $62.3 billion [5] - Despite the stock decline, MicroStrategy's co-founder Michael Saylor reiterated the company's strategy of continuous buying, pausing only at the end of each fiscal quarter for new purchase announcements [5] Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the potential absence of key economic data releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment statistics for October, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [5] - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan indicated that she does not support further interest rate cuts unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in U.S. inflation [5] - Concerns about inflation and labor market risks have led to a cautious stance among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping as much as 7.4% and falling below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, with a total decline of over 20% from its historical high a month ago [1][2] - The recent downturn is primarily driven by the selling activities of "super whales" holding between 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoins, rather than forced liquidations from leveraged positions [1][2] Group 1 - Approximately 400,000 bitcoins, equivalent to $45 billion, have been sold by long-term holders in the past month, leading to a supply-demand imbalance in the market [1] - In the last 24 hours, around $2 billion in cryptocurrency positions were liquidated, which is significantly lower than the $19 billion liquidated during the October crash [1] - The open interest in Bitcoin futures remains low, while options traders are betting on a price decline with put options targeting $80,000 [1] Group 2 - Over 319,000 bitcoins have been reactivated in the past month, primarily from holders who have kept their assets for 6 to 12 months, indicating a trend of profit-taking since mid-July [2] - The continuous selling by long-term holders and insufficient new buyers is exacerbating market sentiment issues, potentially leading to a further decline in market confidence [2] - The overall accumulation by investors holding between 100 to 1,000 bitcoins has significantly decreased, with large holders not entering the market [2] Group 3 - There is a warning that the current selling trend may persist until spring next year, with large holders having previously sold over 1 million bitcoins during the 2021-2022 bear market [2] - While a catastrophic crash is not predicted, there is an expectation of further downward movement, with a target price of $85,000 as the maximum downside [2]