银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 【市场回顾】 【重要资讯】 力市场仍处于平衡状态。 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021675 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号： Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号： Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 贵金属 2.美联储观点：①威廉姆斯：5 月和 6 月非农数据异常大幅下调才是焦点，对 9 月降息 持开放态度。②美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼发文回应为何反对美联储不降息，均提及劳动 力市场出现疲软。③哈玛克：就业报告"令人失望"，但不意味着上周应该降息；劳动 1 / 16 北京：010-68569781 银河有色 有色研发报告 3.美联储观察：美 ...

Core Insights - The lithium market is experiencing an oversupply, leading to a significant increase in inventory levels and a downward trend in prices due to the seasonal slowdown in electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current imbalance between supply and demand in the lithium market is raising concerns about how to address the oversupply situation [1] - Inventory levels have surged, indicating a potential glut in the market that could affect pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The downward price trend in lithium is expected to continue as electric vehicle sales enter a seasonal lull, impacting overall demand [1] - The market is closely monitoring when this price decline will stabilize and what factors could influence a recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of lemons has surged dramatically this summer, with reports indicating a rise of 3-5 times compared to the same period last year, leading to increased costs for lemon-based beverages like lemon water and lemon tea [1][3][4]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of lemons has doubled, with the supply price in Anju County, Sichuan, reaching around 8 yuan per jin, which is a direct doubling from last year [6]. - In Beijing, the wholesale average price of lemons increased from 3.75 yuan per jin in early 2025 to 8 yuan per jin in just half a month, marking a 113% increase [6]. - As of June 23, 2025, the national average wholesale price for lemons was 12.75 yuan per kilogram, up 28.3% from April and 61.4% from the previous year [6]. Comparison with Other Fruits - On June 24, the wholesale price of lemons was higher than that of lychees, with lemons priced at 13.44 yuan per kilogram compared to lychees at 12.38 yuan per kilogram [7]. Retail Prices - Retail prices for lemons are significantly higher, with prices in a supermarket in Beijing reaching approximately 17 yuan per jin [7]. - The price for a single lemon from Sichuan Anju was reported at 2.7 yuan, equating to about 15 yuan per jin when calculated [11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in lemon prices is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by extreme weather conditions affecting major lemon-producing regions globally, leading to reduced yields [22]. - Countries like Turkey, South Africa, and Argentina have reported decreased lemon production due to adverse weather, while demand for lemons has increased due to their essential role in summer beverages and culinary uses [22]. Export Opportunities - Despite the price surge, China's lemons, particularly from Anju, have seen a significant increase in export volume, nearing the total sales of the previous two months within just half a month [23]. - The article suggests that if domestic lemon producers can capitalize on this opportunity and maintain quality, they could gain recognition in the global market [23]. Impact on Beverage Industry - The rising prices of lemons are affecting the beverage industry, particularly for lemon tea, which is a popular summer item [24]. - Larger tea brands with their own lemon production bases are less affected, while smaller brands face more significant challenges due to the price increases [26]. - Some beverage shops are considering temporarily removing lemon-based products from their menus due to cost concerns [24].