Core Insights - The long-term rental market in first-tier cities is experiencing a phenomenon of high occupancy rates alongside declining rental prices since 2025 [1][2] - The high occupancy rates, exceeding 85% in major cities, indicate strong rental demand, particularly from the "Z generation" who prefer long-term leases [2][8] - The decline in rental prices is primarily driven by the large-scale entry of affordable rental housing, which has a downward effect on overall market rents [7][11] Rental Market Overview - The occupancy rates for long-term rental apartments in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou have consistently exceeded 85% [2][8] - Guangzhou leads with a 96% occupancy rate, followed by Shenzhen at 91%, Beijing at approximately 88%, and Shanghai at 85% [2][8] - Rental prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have decreased by 1% to 5%, while Guangzhou saw a slight increase of 2.08% [4][11] Factors Influencing Rental Prices - The introduction of affordable rental housing has significantly impacted the average rental prices, particularly in Shanghai where new affordable units are priced about 30% lower than the market average [7][11] - Increased market competition has forced rental companies to adjust their pricing strategies, contributing to the overall decline in rental prices [7][11] City-Specific Trends - In May, Beijing had the highest rental price at 189.3 CNY per square meter, with a slight increase of 0.16% month-on-month [8] - Guangzhou had the lowest rental price at 88.5 CNY per square meter, while Shanghai's rental price decreased by over 5% compared to 2024 [4][8] - Shenzhen's rental prices have returned to 2022 levels, with a current price of 101.7 CNY per square meter, reflecting a continuous decline over three years [11] Market Evolution - The rental market is transitioning from "having a place to live" to "living well," indicating a maturation of the market [13] - This shift suggests that the long-term rental industry will enter a phase of "quality competition and precise matching" [13] - Tenants are currently in a favorable position to negotiate better rental terms, especially in non-core areas, with potential discounts of 5% to 10% [13]