Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot at par, and a strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by cost from the mine end, and supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is tight, limiting smelter capacity. Macro - factors like Fed rate cuts keep the copper price at a high level. However, strong copper prices suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, with light trading in the spot market. The boost from the peak season on demand is not yet evident, and consumption recovery is slow. In the options market, sentiment is bullish, and implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double lines below the 0 - axis with the emergence of green bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, paying attention to rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 80,940 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,086 dollars/ton, up 18.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 179,256 lots, down 7,620 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 7,538 lots, down 1,884 lots. LME copper inventory is 154,175 tons, down 875 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 94,054 tons, up 12,203 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 20,725 tons, down 125 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,560 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 80,940 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 80,995 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 54 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 0 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 73.42 dollars/ton, down 11.88 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 41.30 dollars/kiloton, down 0.45 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,290 yuan/metal ton, up 810 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,990 yuan/metal ton, up 810 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South and North is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 425,000 tons, down 55,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 56,190 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,650 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,030.9 billion yuan, up 672.923 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250 million pieces, down 439,220.7 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.31%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.73%, down 0.95%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 15.69%, up 0.0374. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.38, down 0.0115 [2]. Industry News - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year and in January, April, and July 2026. According to FedWatch, there is a 93.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut at this week's FOMC meeting. In August 2025, new RMB loans increased by 590 billion yuan, 310 billion yuan less year - on - year; the increment of social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less year - on - year; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. A policy document to promote private investment is in the works. The eight - department plan aims to boost automobile consumption. The Ministry of Finance has sufficient fiscal policy space, with a 500 - billion - yuan special treasury bond issued this year expected to leverage about 6 trillion yuan in credit [2].