1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is available in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of沪铜shows a fluctuating trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weaker basis. In the raw material aspect of the fundamentals, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrates remains at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply will have a long - lasting effect on the copper smelting end, providing cost support. In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, is still relatively good, making up for some profit losses of smelters. Although the operating rate of smelters has rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous maintenance, the increase is only slight due to raw material shortages. In terms of demand, boosted by macro - expectations, the copper price has been strong in the short term, but the high price has suppressed the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who have become more cautious, and social inventories have slightly accumulated. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.0111, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. The report suggests light - position short - term long - buying at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of沪铜is 92,820 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 900 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,680 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 88 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of沪铜is 223,974 lots, a daily increase of 6,600 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of沪铜is - 32,306 lots, a daily increase of 1,775 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,600 tons, a daily increase of 725 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 89,389 tons, a weekly increase of 484 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 64,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,000 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 44,877 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,145 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 445 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 92,285 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 290 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 45.5 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 675 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 455 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.52 dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 5.13 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, a monthly decrease of 13.56 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.08 dollars/thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.22 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 82,200 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 82,900 yuan/metal ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,400 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.4 million tons, a monthly decrease of 6.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,790 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 300 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,750 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 350 yuan. The output of copper products is 200.4 million tons, a monthly decrease of 22.8 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 482.434 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 44.627 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7859.1 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 502.83 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4.39 million pieces, a monthly increase of 213,000 pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of沪铜is 18%, a daily increase of 0.13%. The 40 - day historical volatility of沪铜is 17.2%, a daily increase of 0.11%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 18.15%, a daily increase of 0.0117. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, a daily increase of 0.0111. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The relevant person in charge of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office explained the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that expanding domestic demand is the top priority next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides, and coordinate to boost consumption and expand investment. In addition, efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market from both supply and demand sides next year. On the supply side, new supply should be strictly controlled, existing inventory should be revitalized, and inventory digestion should be accelerated. On the demand side, more targeted measures should be taken to fully release the rigid and improvement - oriented housing demand of residents. - According to China Securities Journal, the core tone of the implementation of monetary policy in 2025 has always been "supportive". Looking forward to 2026, this tone is expected to continue. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, adhere to precise policies and coordinated efforts, flexibly use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. It will also better use structural monetary policy tools to precisely support key areas and weak links of the real economy. In addition, it will continue to explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions, maintain the stability of the financial market, and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States increased by 64,000 in November, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high since September 2021. In addition, non - farm payrolls in October decreased significantly by 105,000, far exceeding the expected decrease of 25,000, and the figures for August and September were also revised down by a total of 33,000. The average hourly wage in November increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021. - The preliminary value of the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a five - month low. The preliminary value of the Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all reaching six - month lows. [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 92,400.00 | -1680.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,646.00 | +131.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -90.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 165,808.00 | -22841.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -32,229.00 | +3407.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 165,900.00 | +50.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 89,389.00 | +484.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 66,000.00 | -650.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 42,226.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 92,265.00 | -1330.00↓ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the fundamental raw material segment, copper concentrate processing fees remain in the negative range, and the continuous tight supply of raw materials still supports copper prices. On the supply side, after the previous concentrated maintenance, smelting capacity may be released again, but the tight supply of raw materials will limit the capacity to some extent, so the domestic refined copper supply will only increase slightly. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season for consumption is gradually emerging, and the relatively high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption. In this context, downstream purchasing sentiment may be more cautious. In terms of inventory, the overall social inventory remains at a medium - low level, but there may be some inventory accumulation due to the off - season. In terms of consumption, the year - end rush of domestic power infrastructure and the year - end sales push of the new energy vehicle industry support the demand to some extent. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, up 0.0683 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis and the green bars are contracting. The overall view is to conduct light - position volatile trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,253 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the open interest of the main contract is 223,984 lots, down 1,622 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34,929 lots, down 7,914 lots; the LME copper inventory is 161,800 tons, up 2,375 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 97,930 tons, down 12,673 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 28,969 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 88,980 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 89,085 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 39 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the CU main contract is - 230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 69.18 US dollars/ton, up 0.08 US dollars; the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons; the weekly TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.75 US dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 79,020 yuan/metal ton, down 440 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 79,720 yuan/metal ton, down 440 yuan; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons; the weekly social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 60,840 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons; the cumulative monthly investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan; the cumulative monthly real estate development investment is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.96%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.20%, down 0.09%; the at - the - money implied volatility is 17.45%, down 0.0114; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, up 0.0683 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie said in a signed article that the "15th Five - Year Plan" will prioritize the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and developing emerging and future industries, and accelerating the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy; US President Trump plans to announce the next Fed Chair nominee in early 2026, and it is reported that he has "pre - selected" White House National Economic Council Director Hassett; the OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% and 2.9% in the next two years, with the US economy growing 2% and 1.7% and the eurozone economy growing 1.3% and 1.2%; the UNCTAD predicts that the global economic growth will slow to 2.6% in 2025, lower than 2.9% in 2024, and emphasizes the impact of financial market volatility on global trade [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The raw material supply of copper concentrate remains tight, and the high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. The supply of refined copper may converge due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters. The downstream demand is still weak as the downstream开工率 only slightly rebounds after the decline in October, and the downstream is cautious due to high copper prices. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,893.50 dollars/ton, up 75.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 204,728 hands, up 5,146 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 22,921 hands, up 4,551 hands. The LME copper inventory is 156,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 5,625 tons, up 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 39,825 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,655 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,745 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 31.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 9.52 dollars/ton, down 15.36 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,990 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,690 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.36%, down 2.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.38%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.69%, down 0.0045; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, down 0.0042 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots, covering traditional and emerging fields. The National Data Bureau will support data exchange and trading service system construction. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October, the cumulative power market trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of the total social power consumption. In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles, with Tesla's new car registrations down 48%, BYD's up 195%, SAIC Group up 56%, and Toyota down 10.8%. A Fed governor said the current monetary policy hinders economic development and the US economy needs significant interest rate cuts. In September, the US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, and retail sales rose 0.2% month - on - month but significantly slowed down. The China - US presidential call was initiated by the US side with a positive atmosphere [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate supply in the raw material end of the fundamentals remains tight, and the copper cost support logic still exists. On the supply side, smelters' profit environment is poor due to weak processing fees and high costs, and smelting capacity may be limited. The total domestic refined copper supply is still at a high level but the growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the high copper price may suppress the downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows down and the demand is temporarily stable, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are slightly expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,829.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 22.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 179,927 lots, a decrease of 12,366 lots. The LME copper inventory is 135,725 tons, a decrease of 450 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 109,407 tons, a decrease of 5,628 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 32 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.50 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, a decrease of 17.20 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 77,400 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 78,100 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan. The rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.21 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.17 dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, a decrease of 3.50 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, an increase of 1.00 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative value of grid infrastructure investment is 4,378.07 billion yuan, an increase of 582.31 billion yuan; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 73,563 billion yuan, an increase of 5,857.29 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,180,000 thousand pieces, a decrease of 191,236.10 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.89%, a decrease of 0.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.46%, a decrease of 0.08%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 15.8%, a decrease of 0.0030; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.26, an increase of 0.0363. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply is converging and demand is gradually improving, with positive industry expectations and orderly inventory reduction. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; LME 3 - month copper was 10,652 dollars/ton, down 11.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper was 217,024 lots, down 10,525 lots. The futures' top 20 open interest of Shanghai copper was - 27,120 lots, down 1,478 lots. LME copper inventory was 133,900 tons, up 300 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 116,140 tons, up 11,348 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 10,925 tons, down 200 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 42,561 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 85,335 yuan/ton, down 1,255 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 85,430 yuan/ton, down 1,215 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis was - 335 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread was - 17.2 dollars/ton, down. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, down. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 30.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.55 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi was 75,720 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,420 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan. The rough copper processing fee in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in the north, it was 900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. 产业情况 - The refined copper output was 1.266 million tons, down 35,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social copper inventory was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 59,190 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 72,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 下游及应用 - The copper product output was 2.232 million tons, up 10,000 tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 23.66%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 15.6%, down 0.0216%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was - 0.13, down. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.39%, up 0.0007%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.28, up 0.0007 [2]. Industry News - In October, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. Tesla China's shipments were 61,497, a 9.9% year - on - year decline and a 32.3% month - on - month decline. The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government "shutdown" entered the 35th day. The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, and it announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on November 5. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, emphasizing expanding mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation of copper concentrates has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the impact of overseas mine disturbances persists, keeping ore prices firm. - On the supply side, due to many maintenance cases and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. In addition, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid shows signs of decline, which also affects smelting profits, and the operating rate may decline, leading to a gradual convergence of domestic refined copper supply. - On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, adopting a wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. High copper prices suppress downstream demand. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.0238 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converge. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 85,380 yuan/ton, up 990 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,665 dollars/ton, up 60.5 dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 226,910 lots, up 11,337 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 10,843 lots, down 3,770 lots; the LME copper inventory is 137,225 tons, down 225 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 7,825 tons, up 275 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 41,319 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,630 yuan/ton, up 855 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot is 85,920 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. - The basis of the CU main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 16.83 dollars/ton, down 5.67 dollars. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.97 dollars/kiloton, down 0.61 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,190 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,890 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The output of refined copper is 1.301 billion tons, up 31 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,990 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 71,550 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.2219 billion tons, up 52.6 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6.7706 trillion yuan, up 739.681 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4.37 billion pieces, up 119,712.9 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.79%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.96%, up 0.19%. - The at - the - money implied volatility (IV) of the current month is 19.2%, down 0.0153%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.0238 [2]. Industry News - The head of the Financial Stability Bureau of the central bank said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's financial risks are generally controllable, financial institutions operate steadily, and the financial market runs smoothly, providing strong support for high - quality economic development. - Fed's Musalem said that if employment faces more risks and inflation is under control, he may support another rate - cut path. - US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in a recent interview, suggesting that the door remains open. The Trump administration is quietly relaxing a number of tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks and proposing to exclude more products from tariffs when countries reach trade agreements with the US. - The People's Bank of China and other departments have created two monetary policy tools to support the capital market - stock repurchase and increase re - loans and swap facilities, with an initial quota of 800 billion yuan in total. In the past year, the two monetary tools have injected hundreds of billions of yuan into the market through counter - cyclical adjustment, effectively boosting investors' confidence, reducing the volatility of the A - share market, and enhancing the internal stability of the capital market. - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increased positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, copper mine supply is tightened due to mine shutdowns, and domestic smelting capacity may converge. On the demand side, supported by the traditional peak season and policies, the industry's overall outlook is positive. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, refined copper demand may increase significantly, and the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decline. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding red bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a bullish bias and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,750 yuan/ton, up 3,640 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,864 dollars/ton, up 195 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 221,715 lots, up 7,856 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 6,648 lots, up 1,387 lots. LME copper inventory is 139,200 tons, down 225 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 95,034 tons, down 3,745 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 8,125 tons, down 175 tons; the warrants of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 29,703 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,740 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,915 yuan/ton, up 2,815 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 29.52 dollars/ton, up 7.21 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,200 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,900 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,040 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 70,550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,795.76 billion yuan, up 480.79 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.52%, up 5.97 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.36%, up 3.95 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 24.79%, up 0.0346 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, up 0.1057 [2] Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that officials are willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy easing may be appropriate this year, and inflation is expected to remain high in the short term and then gradually fall to 2%. Fed's Logan expects a slight rise in unemployment and advocates caution in interest - rate cuts; Goolsbee warns against premature rate cuts. S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook and may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points per week. It is expected that there will be two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of this year and another 50 - basis - point easing in 2026. China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out pilot projects on new consumption models and improve the international consumption environment, with central financial subsidies for pilot cities for two years. Many new - energy vehicle companies released September delivery data, with some achieving high - growth or record - high results. The International Copper Study Group predicts a 178,000 - ton surplus in global refined copper in 2025 and a 150,000 - ton shortage in 2026. It expects global copper mine output to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and global refined copper output to grow by about 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 copper price forecast from $10,000/ton to $10,500/ton, maintains the 2027 forecast at $10,750/ton, and expects copper prices to stay at $10,000/ton for the rest of 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper price cost support logic remains due to tight supply of copper concentrates and a decline in raw material imports. Domestic copper production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend due to tight raw material supply. The copper industry outlook has improved, and the downstream copper product start - up situation will significantly recover. The refined copper demand may increase significantly, and the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decrease. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low levels with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 82,370 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,266 dollars/ton, up 84.5 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract was 213,792 lots, down 15,258 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 15,120 lots, down 8,410 lots. The LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 98,779 tons, down 7,035 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 9,875 tons, down 450 tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 25,603 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper was 82,210 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper was 82,315 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 spread was - 38.91 dollars/ton, down 7.36 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 72,580 yuan/metal ton, down 280 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 73,280 yuan/metal ton, down 280 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,840 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 70,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment was 3,796 billion yuan, up 481.03 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2]. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.37%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.25%, unchanged. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 21.64%, down 0.0141. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.42, down 0.0104 [2]. Industry News - Eight departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry from 2025 to 2026, an average annual growth of about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals, and positive progress in the development of domestic resources such as copper, aluminum, and lithium, with the output of recycled metals exceeding 20 million tons. In July, due to US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, remaining at a high level. The US core PCE price index in August met expectations. The actual consumer spending in August increased for the third consecutive month, exceeding expectations. From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and in August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a decline in the previous month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of copper concentrate is still tight, and the cost - support logic for copper prices remains. Domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge, while demand has increased slightly due to the decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines below the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,960 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,964.50 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 172,444 lots, down 850 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are - 16,618 lots, down 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, down 400 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,775 tons, down 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 27,419 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,045 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,070 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 59.50 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 85 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73.11 dollars/ton, down 0.67 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.80 dollars/kiloton, up 0.50 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 70,340 yuan/metal ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,040 yuan/metal ton, up 20 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are both 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,314.97 billion yuan, up 404.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.29%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.09%, unchanged. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 13.02%, up 0.0008; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.27, down 0.064 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the policy rate is still slightly restrictive, and "Fed Whisperer" pointed out that this may open the door for further interest rate cuts. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Chinese diplomats and leaders met with a US congressional delegation, and the Sino - US relationship shows a stabilizing trend. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to cultivate emerging industries and open up new tracks such as humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information [2].