本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,750.00 | +3640.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,864.00 | +195.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -70.00 | -70.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 221,715.00 | +7856.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -6,648.00 | +1387.00↑ LME铜 ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2025/9/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 82,370.00 | -100.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,266.00 | +84.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 213,792.0 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 79,960.00 | +40.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,964.50 | -10.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 20.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 172,444.00 | -850.00↓ | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -16,618.00 | -3174.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 144,975.00 | -400.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 105,814.00 | +11760.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 11,775.00 | -100.00↓ | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 27,419.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/9/15 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) 80,940.00 | -120.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,086.00 | +18.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) 30.00 | +50.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 179,256.00 | -7620.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. - Fundamentally, the supply from overseas mines has increased, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. - In terms of supply, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively strong operation of the spot market, smelters are more active in production, and the domestic supply has increased. - In terms of demand, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened. As it transitions from the off - season to the peak season, consumption has slightly improved. Downstream inquiries have become more active, and there is some demand for advance stocking, with the demand outlook turning positive. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with inventory remaining at a medium - low level, and the industry outlook is improving. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, both lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous period. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,751.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.50 US dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 140,367 lots, a decrease of 7,066 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 5,580 lots, an increase of 1,394 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,375 tons, a decrease of 150 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,498 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 96.75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, a decrease of 4.58 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,430 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 70,130 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,910.66 billion yuan, an increase of 870.80 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, an increase of 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220.70 thousand pieces, an increase of 183,435.30 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.03%, a decrease of 0.01%. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, a decrease of 0.06%. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month is 8.92%, a decrease of 0.0029%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008. [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council emphasized the need to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and stabilize market expectations. Stimulate consumption potential, clean up restrictive measures in the consumption field, and cultivate and expand new consumption growth points. Expand effective investment, and take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on Friday. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. - The Ifo Institute: Economists from many countries generally expect that the global inflation level will remain at a relatively high level in the next few years. The surveyed economists expect the global average inflation rate in 2025 to be 4.0%, the same as the previous quarter's expectation. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses in the first half of the year, and the problem of tight liquidity spread throughout the circulation industry. Looking forward to 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat performance, but their expectations for growth are lower than those at the end of last year. - According to Shanghai Securities News, China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth period to a stable development period, and urban development is shifting from a large - scale incremental expansion stage to a stage mainly focused on improving the quality and efficiency of the stock. Urban renewal has become an important turning point in urban development, which helps to improve the quality and efficiency of the stock, activate domestic demand, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals show that the TC spot index of copper concentrate has slightly rebounded but still operates in the negative range, and port inventories have slightly increased. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the quotation of copper ore slightly. On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials recently and the good price of by - product sulfuric acid from smelters, smelters' production willingness remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply volume may increase steadily and slightly. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. In terms of inventory, domestic social inventories have slightly accumulated but still operate at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually being repaired. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1204, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,849 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 1,583 lots, up 2,935 lots. LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, down 100 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,575 tons, down 1,500 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 25,507 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 15 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 66.96 dollars/ton, down 13.2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,030 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,730 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.57%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.02%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 12.4%, up 0.0291; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.53, down 0.1204 [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the national economy generally operated steadily and improved. The more proactive fiscal policy has achieved remarkable results. In the second half of the year, to promote consumption and investment, the fiscal policy will continue to act proactively. The LPR in China remained unchanged in July for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect that there is room for further decline in LPR in the second half of the year. International rating agency Fitch said that policy risks cast a shadow over the US credit outlook. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, still operates in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,090 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,614.50 dollars/ton, down 4.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 169,930 hands, down 2,274 hands. The LME copper inventory is 109,625 tons, up 900 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 77,995 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 78,185 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The imported quantity of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The imported quantity of unwrought copper and copper products is 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.8 billion yuan, up 1,042.416 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,510 million pieces, up 275 million pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.34%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.33%, unchanged. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.32%, down 0.0061%. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.68, up 0.018 [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting. The balance of broad money (M2) at the end of June was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In the first half of the year, the number of newly registered motor vehicles in China was 16.88 million, among which the number of newly registered new - energy vehicles was 5.622 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. Industrial inventories are accumulating but still at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,639.50 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 6,478 lots to 172,204 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper increased by 6,397 lots to - 1,607 lots [2]. - LME copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 25 tons to 40,975 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 34,379 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,455 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market 1 copper spot was 78,520 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. The CIF price of Shanghai electrolytic copper (bill of lading) was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper increased by 2.5 dollars to 45.5 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was 55 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 21.57 dollars/ton, down 20.62 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters increased by 0.46 dollars to - 43.79 dollars/thousand tons. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,800 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,500 yuan/metal ton, down 210 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The production of refined copper was 1.254 billion tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 34,000 tons to 464,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan to 55,290 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products increased by 1.5 million tons to 209.6 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure increased by 63.169 billion yuan to 203.986 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development increased by 85.0427 billion yuan to 362.3384 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly production of integrated circuits increased by 68,000 pieces to 4,235,000,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper decreased by 0.29% to 10.25%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.04% to 9.33%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month increased by 0.0011% to 11.93%, and the put - call ratio of the at - the - money option decreased by 0.0213 to 1.66 [2]. Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have confused the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's proposed interest rate cuts [2]. - Data from the National Information Center showed that in the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple fields such as consumption, investment, industrial production, and business operations in China continued to improve. The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.5% year - on - year, the online retail sales of major household appliances increased by 28.0%, the national project winning bid amount increased by 23.4% month - on - month, and the business vitality indexes of start - up enterprises and technology - innovative enterprises increased by 38.3% and 28.2% year - on - year respectively [2]. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2]. - Yuyuantan Tian published an article pointing out that in 2025, the global trade pattern is at a critical turning point. The unpredictability of US tariff policies has created uncertainty but also promoted the global trade system to develop towards true diversification. Although the US is still an important participant in global trade, its influence is gradually weakening, and developing countries and emerging economies, especially those in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, are becoming new growth points in global trade [2]. - Fu Bingfeng, the executive vice - president and secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that as of now, the proportion of new energy vehicles in China has reached 10%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 16 million this year, and the proportion of new vehicle sales is expected to exceed 50% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,640 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, up 41 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 149,902 lots, down 7,527 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper were 3,115 lots, up 4,480 lots. The LME copper inventory was 95,875 tons, down 3,325 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 22,425 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,485 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 61 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 37.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was 274.99 dollars/ton, up 141.63 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 44.78 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,780 yuan/metal ton, up 100 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 69,480 yuan/metal ton, up 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 2,040 billion yuan, up 631.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,235,000 million pieces, up 68,000 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.47%, down 0.13%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.91%, down 0.27%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.79%, up 0.0019%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.05, up 0.0053 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 36.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 10.8 billion kilowatts, an increase of 56.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 5.7 billion kilowatts, an increase of 23.1%. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance met with the delegation of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. Many places have broadened the proposed investment fields of special bonds. The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June remained stable at 52, the highest since February. The Fed's vice - chair said that a rate cut might be supported as early as July [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a weak supply - demand situation. The options market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position range trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 78,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,633 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 157,429 lots, down 9,453 lots. The LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, down 4,125 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,325 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 35 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 68,680 yuan/metal ton and 69,380 yuan/metal ton respectively, both down 70 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The prices of 1 bright copper wire and 2 copper in Shanghai are down 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The real estate development investment is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai copper are 8.61% and 9.18% respectively, up 0.08% and 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.6%, up 0.0023%, and the at - the - money option purchase - put ratio is 1.04, down 0.0538 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's macro - policies are precisely regulated, and the economy shows strong resilience. The GDP growth target of over 5% in the first half of 2025 is almost certain, and the Q2 growth rate may reach about 5.3%. The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. China's central bank keeps the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged [2]