1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The raw material supply of copper concentrate remains tight, and the high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. The supply of refined copper may converge due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters. The downstream demand is still weak as the downstream开工率 only slightly rebounds after the decline in October, and the downstream is cautious due to high copper prices. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,893.50 dollars/ton, up 75.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 204,728 hands, up 5,146 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 22,921 hands, up 4,551 hands. The LME copper inventory is 156,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 5,625 tons, up 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 39,825 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,655 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,745 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 31.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 9.52 dollars/ton, down 15.36 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,990 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,690 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.36%, down 2.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.38%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.69%, down 0.0045; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, down 0.0042 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots, covering traditional and emerging fields. The National Data Bureau will support data exchange and trading service system construction. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October, the cumulative power market trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of the total social power consumption. In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles, with Tesla's new car registrations down 48%, BYD's up 195%, SAIC Group up 56%, and Toyota down 10.8%. A Fed governor said the current monetary policy hinders economic development and the US economy needs significant interest rate cuts. In September, the US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, and retail sales rose 0.2% month - on - month but significantly slowed down. The China - US presidential call was initiated by the US side with a positive atmosphere [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate supply in the raw material end of the fundamentals remains tight, and the copper cost support logic still exists. On the supply side, smelters' profit environment is poor due to weak processing fees and high costs, and smelting capacity may be limited. The total domestic refined copper supply is still at a high level but the growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the high copper price may suppress the downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows down and the demand is temporarily stable, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are slightly expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,829.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 22.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 179,927 lots, a decrease of 12,366 lots. The LME copper inventory is 135,725 tons, a decrease of 450 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 109,407 tons, a decrease of 5,628 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 32 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.50 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, a decrease of 17.20 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 77,400 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 78,100 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan. The rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.21 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.17 dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, a decrease of 3.50 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, an increase of 1.00 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative value of grid infrastructure investment is 4,378.07 billion yuan, an increase of 582.31 billion yuan; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 73,563 billion yuan, an increase of 5,857.29 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,180,000 thousand pieces, a decrease of 191,236.10 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.89%, a decrease of 0.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.46%, a decrease of 0.08%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 15.8%, a decrease of 0.0030; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.26, an increase of 0.0363. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply is converging and demand is gradually improving, with positive industry expectations and orderly inventory reduction. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; LME 3 - month copper was 10,652 dollars/ton, down 11.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper was 217,024 lots, down 10,525 lots. The futures' top 20 open interest of Shanghai copper was - 27,120 lots, down 1,478 lots. LME copper inventory was 133,900 tons, up 300 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 116,140 tons, up 11,348 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 10,925 tons, down 200 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 42,561 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 85,335 yuan/ton, down 1,255 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 85,430 yuan/ton, down 1,215 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis was - 335 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread was - 17.2 dollars/ton, down. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, down. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 30.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.55 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi was 75,720 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,420 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan. The rough copper processing fee in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in the north, it was 900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. 产业情况 - The refined copper output was 1.266 million tons, down 35,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social copper inventory was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 59,190 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 72,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 下游及应用 - The copper product output was 2.232 million tons, up 10,000 tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 23.66%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 15.6%, down 0.0216%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was - 0.13, down. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.39%, up 0.0007%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.28, up 0.0007 [2]. Industry News - In October, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. Tesla China's shipments were 61,497, a 9.9% year - on - year decline and a 32.3% month - on - month decline. The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government "shutdown" entered the 35th day. The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, and it announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on November 5. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, emphasizing expanding mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation of copper concentrates has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the impact of overseas mine disturbances persists, keeping ore prices firm. - On the supply side, due to many maintenance cases and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. In addition, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid shows signs of decline, which also affects smelting profits, and the operating rate may decline, leading to a gradual convergence of domestic refined copper supply. - On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, adopting a wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. High copper prices suppress downstream demand. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.0238 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converge. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 85,380 yuan/ton, up 990 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,665 dollars/ton, up 60.5 dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 226,910 lots, up 11,337 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 10,843 lots, down 3,770 lots; the LME copper inventory is 137,225 tons, down 225 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 7,825 tons, up 275 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 41,319 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,630 yuan/ton, up 855 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot is 85,920 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. - The basis of the CU main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 16.83 dollars/ton, down 5.67 dollars. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.97 dollars/kiloton, down 0.61 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,190 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,890 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The output of refined copper is 1.301 billion tons, up 31 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,990 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 71,550 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.2219 billion tons, up 52.6 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6.7706 trillion yuan, up 739.681 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4.37 billion pieces, up 119,712.9 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.79%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.96%, up 0.19%. - The at - the - money implied volatility (IV) of the current month is 19.2%, down 0.0153%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.0238 [2]. Industry News - The head of the Financial Stability Bureau of the central bank said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's financial risks are generally controllable, financial institutions operate steadily, and the financial market runs smoothly, providing strong support for high - quality economic development. - Fed's Musalem said that if employment faces more risks and inflation is under control, he may support another rate - cut path. - US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in a recent interview, suggesting that the door remains open. The Trump administration is quietly relaxing a number of tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks and proposing to exclude more products from tariffs when countries reach trade agreements with the US. - The People's Bank of China and other departments have created two monetary policy tools to support the capital market - stock repurchase and increase re - loans and swap facilities, with an initial quota of 800 billion yuan in total. In the past year, the two monetary tools have injected hundreds of billions of yuan into the market through counter - cyclical adjustment, effectively boosting investors' confidence, reducing the volatility of the A - share market, and enhancing the internal stability of the capital market. - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increased positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, copper mine supply is tightened due to mine shutdowns, and domestic smelting capacity may converge. On the demand side, supported by the traditional peak season and policies, the industry's overall outlook is positive. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, refined copper demand may increase significantly, and the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decline. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding red bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a bullish bias and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,750 yuan/ton, up 3,640 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,864 dollars/ton, up 195 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 221,715 lots, up 7,856 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 6,648 lots, up 1,387 lots. LME copper inventory is 139,200 tons, down 225 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 95,034 tons, down 3,745 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 8,125 tons, down 175 tons; the warrants of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 29,703 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,740 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,915 yuan/ton, up 2,815 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 29.52 dollars/ton, up 7.21 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,200 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,900 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,040 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 70,550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,795.76 billion yuan, up 480.79 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.52%, up 5.97 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.36%, up 3.95 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 24.79%, up 0.0346 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, up 0.1057 [2] Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that officials are willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy easing may be appropriate this year, and inflation is expected to remain high in the short term and then gradually fall to 2%. Fed's Logan expects a slight rise in unemployment and advocates caution in interest - rate cuts; Goolsbee warns against premature rate cuts. S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook and may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points per week. It is expected that there will be two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of this year and another 50 - basis - point easing in 2026. China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out pilot projects on new consumption models and improve the international consumption environment, with central financial subsidies for pilot cities for two years. Many new - energy vehicle companies released September delivery data, with some achieving high - growth or record - high results. The International Copper Study Group predicts a 178,000 - ton surplus in global refined copper in 2025 and a 150,000 - ton shortage in 2026. It expects global copper mine output to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and global refined copper output to grow by about 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 copper price forecast from $10,000/ton to $10,500/ton, maintains the 2027 forecast at $10,750/ton, and expects copper prices to stay at $10,000/ton for the rest of 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The copper price cost support logic remains due to tight supply of copper concentrates and a decline in raw material imports. Domestic copper production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend due to tight raw material supply. The copper industry outlook has improved, and the downstream copper product start - up situation will significantly recover. The refined copper demand may increase significantly, and the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decrease. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low levels with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 82,370 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,266 dollars/ton, up 84.5 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract was 213,792 lots, down 15,258 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 15,120 lots, down 8,410 lots. The LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 98,779 tons, down 7,035 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 9,875 tons, down 450 tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 25,603 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper was 82,210 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper was 82,315 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 spread was - 38.91 dollars/ton, down 7.36 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 72,580 yuan/metal ton, down 280 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 73,280 yuan/metal ton, down 280 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee in the north was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,840 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 70,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment was 3,796 billion yuan, up 481.03 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2]. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.37%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.25%, unchanged. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 21.64%, down 0.0141. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.42, down 0.0104 [2]. Industry News - Eight departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry from 2025 to 2026, an average annual growth of about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals, and positive progress in the development of domestic resources such as copper, aluminum, and lithium, with the output of recycled metals exceeding 20 million tons. In July, due to US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, remaining at a high level. The US core PCE price index in August met expectations. The actual consumer spending in August increased for the third consecutive month, exceeding expectations. From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and in August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a decline in the previous month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of copper concentrate is still tight, and the cost - support logic for copper prices remains. Domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge, while demand has increased slightly due to the decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines below the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,960 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,964.50 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 172,444 lots, down 850 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are - 16,618 lots, down 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, down 400 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,775 tons, down 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 27,419 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,045 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,070 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 59.50 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 85 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73.11 dollars/ton, down 0.67 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.80 dollars/kiloton, up 0.50 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 70,340 yuan/metal ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,040 yuan/metal ton, up 20 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are both 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,314.97 billion yuan, up 404.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.29%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.09%, unchanged. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 13.02%, up 0.0008; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.27, down 0.064 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the policy rate is still slightly restrictive, and "Fed Whisperer" pointed out that this may open the door for further interest rate cuts. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Chinese diplomats and leaders met with a US congressional delegation, and the Sino - US relationship shows a stabilizing trend. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to cultivate emerging industries and open up new tracks such as humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot at par, and a strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by cost from the mine end, and supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is tight, limiting smelter capacity. Macro - factors like Fed rate cuts keep the copper price at a high level. However, strong copper prices suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, with light trading in the spot market. The boost from the peak season on demand is not yet evident, and consumption recovery is slow. In the options market, sentiment is bullish, and implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double lines below the 0 - axis with the emergence of green bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, paying attention to rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 80,940 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,086 dollars/ton, up 18.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 179,256 lots, down 7,620 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 7,538 lots, down 1,884 lots. LME copper inventory is 154,175 tons, down 875 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 94,054 tons, up 12,203 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 20,725 tons, down 125 tons; the warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,560 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 80,940 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 80,995 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 54 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 0 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 73.42 dollars/ton, down 11.88 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 41.30 dollars/kiloton, down 0.45 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,290 yuan/metal ton, up 810 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,990 yuan/metal ton, up 810 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South and North is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 425,000 tons, down 55,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 56,190 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,650 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,030.9 billion yuan, up 672.923 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250 million pieces, down 439,220.7 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.31%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.73%, down 0.95%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 15.69%, up 0.0374. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.38, down 0.0115 [2]. Industry News - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year and in January, April, and July 2026. According to FedWatch, there is a 93.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut at this week's FOMC meeting. In August 2025, new RMB loans increased by 590 billion yuan, 310 billion yuan less year - on - year; the increment of social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less year - on - year; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. A policy document to promote private investment is in the works. The eight - department plan aims to boost automobile consumption. The Ministry of Finance has sufficient fiscal policy space, with a 500 - billion - yuan special treasury bond issued this year expected to leverage about 6 trillion yuan in credit [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. - Fundamentally, the supply from overseas mines has increased, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. - In terms of supply, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively strong operation of the spot market, smelters are more active in production, and the domestic supply has increased. - In terms of demand, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened. As it transitions from the off - season to the peak season, consumption has slightly improved. Downstream inquiries have become more active, and there is some demand for advance stocking, with the demand outlook turning positive. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with inventory remaining at a medium - low level, and the industry outlook is improving. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, both lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous period. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,751.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.50 US dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 140,367 lots, a decrease of 7,066 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 5,580 lots, an increase of 1,394 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,375 tons, a decrease of 150 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,498 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 96.75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, a decrease of 4.58 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,430 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 70,130 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,910.66 billion yuan, an increase of 870.80 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, an increase of 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220.70 thousand pieces, an increase of 183,435.30 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.03%, a decrease of 0.01%. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, a decrease of 0.06%. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month is 8.92%, a decrease of 0.0029%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008. [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council emphasized the need to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and stabilize market expectations. Stimulate consumption potential, clean up restrictive measures in the consumption field, and cultivate and expand new consumption growth points. Expand effective investment, and take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on Friday. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. - The Ifo Institute: Economists from many countries generally expect that the global inflation level will remain at a relatively high level in the next few years. The surveyed economists expect the global average inflation rate in 2025 to be 4.0%, the same as the previous quarter's expectation. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses in the first half of the year, and the problem of tight liquidity spread throughout the circulation industry. Looking forward to 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat performance, but their expectations for growth are lower than those at the end of last year. - According to Shanghai Securities News, China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth period to a stable development period, and urban development is shifting from a large - scale incremental expansion stage to a stage mainly focused on improving the quality and efficiency of the stock. Urban renewal has become an important turning point in urban development, which helps to improve the quality and efficiency of the stock, activate domestic demand, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals show that the TC spot index of copper concentrate has slightly rebounded but still operates in the negative range, and port inventories have slightly increased. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the quotation of copper ore slightly. On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials recently and the good price of by - product sulfuric acid from smelters, smelters' production willingness remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply volume may increase steadily and slightly. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. In terms of inventory, domestic social inventories have slightly accumulated but still operate at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually being repaired. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1204, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,849 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 1,583 lots, up 2,935 lots. LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, down 100 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,575 tons, down 1,500 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 25,507 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 15 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 66.96 dollars/ton, down 13.2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,030 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,730 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.57%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.02%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 12.4%, up 0.0291; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.53, down 0.1204 [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the national economy generally operated steadily and improved. The more proactive fiscal policy has achieved remarkable results. In the second half of the year, to promote consumption and investment, the fiscal policy will continue to act proactively. The LPR in China remained unchanged in July for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect that there is room for further decline in LPR in the second half of the year. International rating agency Fitch said that policy risks cast a shadow over the US credit outlook. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates [2].