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华泰期货碳酸锂月报:短期消费仍有支撑,关注库存拐点及复产进展
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-03 02:16
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing price fluctuations, with futures prices showing a 10.87% increase in October, while the spot prices for battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate have also risen [1][2]. Supply Side - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October is expected to exceed 100,000 tons, driven by increased production capacity in Sichuan, Qinghai, and Jiangsu, despite some production disruptions due to a mine shutdown in Jiangxi [2]. - The import volume of lithium carbonate is projected to decline slightly due to reduced exports from Chile in September, with the main import sources being Chile and Argentina [2]. Consumption Side - The consumption of lithium carbonate continues to exceed expectations, particularly in the power and energy storage sectors, leading to increased procurement activities in the second half of October [2][4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong, with significant increases in orders for cathode materials observed mid-month, indicating a robust market [2][4]. Cost Side - Lithium ore prices have been volatile, with reports indicating prices nearing $1,000 per ton, impacting the cost structure for companies reliant on external lithium ore sources [3]. - Companies with self-supply advantages are maintaining high operational loads, while those dependent on purchased lithium ore face ongoing cost pressures [3]. Inventory Side - Total inventory levels have decreased significantly, with a reported drop of nearly 10,000 tons in October, indicating a tightening market [3]. - The lithium hydroxide market has seen price increases, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide averaging 77,375 yuan/ton by the end of October [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a price range of 75,000 to 85,000 yuan/ton for battery-grade lithium carbonate in the near term, with potential inventory turning points anticipated in late November [4].