近期碳酸锂期货主力合约延续强劲上涨态势，12月24日，主力合约以113900元/吨开盘后震荡拉升，收 盘价达120360元/吨，当日涨幅5.23%。不过，在持续上涨后，碳酸锂期货多空博弈加剧，短期波动风险 升温。截至12月25日午间收盘，碳酸锂期货报收于119840元/吨。 "近期碳酸锂期货持续上涨，这与短期内供给端干扰因素驱动有关。12月中旬江西宜春市自然资源局公 示拟注销27个过期锂矿采矿权，引发市场对供应收缩的担忧。不过，锂盐厂生产仍保持环比增长，12月 国内碳酸锂产量预计环比增约3%，表明碳酸锂的供需并未出现实质性失衡，显然，市场在进一步定价 未来的供需。"西安交大客座教授景川在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 供应预期扰动锂价行情 12月12日，宜春市自然资源局网站信息公开显示，根据《中华人民共和国矿产资源法》《矿产资源开采 登记管理办法》《自然资源部关于进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记管理的通知》《关于过期勘查许可 证采矿许可证数据清理工作的通知》，拟对27宗采矿许可证予以注销，现向社会公示，公示时间30个工 作日，公示期满后予以公告注销，注销后生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履行。 华夏时报记者 叶青 ...

1. Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Carbonate lithium futures rose to a new high in two years, with total positions decreasing by 9,244 lots and increasing capital exit sentiment. The spot price increased by 2,000 to 101,500, Australian ore rose by 30 to 1,435, mica rose by 85 to 3,210, ternary materials rose by 700 - 800, lithium iron phosphate rose by 470 - 490, and electrolyte prices remained flat. The industry chain price increase trend continued, and there was still fundamental support. However, the short - term deviation between futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium was large. As the LC2601 contract was about to enter delivery, the pressure of futures - spot convergence might slow down the short - term upward pace of lithium prices [11] 3. Industry News Summary - On December 24, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that it had acquired two salt lake lithium mines in Argentina at low cost at the bottom of the industry cycle, and 100% equity transfer procedures had been completed. The two salt lake lithium mines were still in the exploration and construction stage [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued several opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation. They supported new energy bases such as large - scale "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new energy bases for external transmission, water - wind - solar bases for external transmission, and various self - use bases with suitable technical and economic conditions to carry out solar thermal power station project construction. They would scientifically determine the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation in the bases, optimize and improve the base regulation capacity, increase the proportion of green electricity in the base, reduce the average carbon emissions per kilowatt - hour of the base, strengthen the stable transmission of new energy, and actively explore the role of technically and economically feasible solar thermal power stations as supporting and regulating power sources in large bases [12]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures reached a new high this year, with total positions increasing by 26,408 lots, and the 05 - 01 spread widening to 1,900. Spot electric carbon rose 1,350 to 99,000. The trade market's premium/discount to the main contract was reported at (-3,500, -1,500). Australian ore rose 50 to 1,385, lithium mica ore rose 85 to 2,920, ternary materials rose 500 - 1,000, iron - lithium rose 315 - 330, and electrolyte remained flat [9]. - The slowdown in demand at the end of the year was obvious. The weekly production of power lithium batteries, ternary, and iron - lithium all slowed down last week, and the weekly de - stocking volume slowed down for three consecutive weeks [9]. - Overall, there was an expected difference on the supply side of carbonate lithium, and demand slowed down slightly. It was expected that the de - stocking intensity of carbonate lithium would stop falling and rise, and carbonate lithium futures were prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. Group 3: Industry News - Over 60% of global key mineral demand was met through international trade, making the global supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, export controls, and refining bottlenecks. The supply - side vulnerability was increasing as the demand for major energy - transition minerals was expected to rise sharply by 2040. Copper and nickel markets might face shortages in the mid - 2030s, and lithium supply was concentrated in a few countries, with the concentration of the refining segment increasing from about 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024. Governments had accelerated their responses, with the number of key mineral policies issued since 2020 nearly doubling that of the previous two decades [12]. - Battery metals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt had faced a third difficult year, struggling to digest the supply wave after the 2022 price surge. However, the electric vehicle revolution continued, and the demand for batteries and battery - forming metals was still growing rapidly. Chinese companies were leading a technological revolution to develop more powerful batteries at lower costs. Not all battery metals would succeed in the intense competition. In the first 11 months of 2025, global electric vehicle sales increased by 21% year - on - year to 18.5 million. The Chinese electric vehicle market was mainly dominated by lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which were safer, cheaper, and had a narrowing performance gap compared to NCM batteries. In 2024, LFP batteries accounted for 48% of global electric vehicle batteries, and Macquarie Bank expected this proportion to rise to 65% by 2029 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures rose, with the intraday gain of the main contract approaching the daily limit. The market continued to trade on the disturbance in Yichun's mining end. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor announced the proposed cancellation of its Shiziling mining area, which pushed up the lithium price. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800, and the prices in the industrial chain showed a stable upward trend. With the short - term supply - side disturbance, the market's bullish sentiment was high, breaking through the previous high, and a new round of upward trend in lithium prices was expected [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the intraday gain of the main contract almost hit the daily limit. The market focused on the mining - end disturbance in Yichun. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of the Shiziling mining area led to the high - opening and high - walking of the lithium price during the day. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1200 to 97050, the price of spodumene rose by 70 to 1330, the price of lepidolite increased by 85 to 2785, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 300, and the price of lithium iron phosphate rose by 280 - 295. The upward trend in the industrial chain was stable, and the lithium price was expected to continue rising [11]. 3.2. Industry News - A joint report by global consulting firm Kearney and the World Economic Forum showed that the global lithium supply can only meet one - third (35%) of the predicted demand in 2035. The report warned that the pace of global electrification, digitalization, and emission reduction is faster than the supply speed of mineral resources. The lithium supply needs to more than double by 2035, and the production of rare - earth elements and copper must increase by over 50%. By 2035, electric vehicles will account for 86% of the total lithium demand, 55% of the cobalt demand, and one - third of the total rare - earth consumption. Even if all announced projects are implemented, existing mines and smelters can only meet 35 - 45% of the predicted demand for lithium and graphite. There is a significant time mismatch in the value chain due to the long development cycle (10 - 20 years) of new mining projects compared to the 1 - 3 - year scale - up time for battery and motor factories. To achieve electrification goals, 60 million kilometers of transmission lines need to be newly built or replaced by 2035, and the grid infrastructure will account for 22% of the global copper demand, 29% of the vanadium demand, and 7% of the lithium demand [12]. - J.P. Morgan's latest report predicted that the average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 will be $17,500 per ton, a 43% increase from the previous forecast, and $22,000 per ton in 2027, a 66% increase. It is estimated that the lithium production of Chilean lithium producer SQM in 2026 will reach 275,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with 250,000 tons from Chile and 25,000 tons from Australia. The demand for energy - storage system batteries in 2026 is expected to reach 900 gigawatt - hours, a 17% increase from the previous forecast, and energy - storage systems will account for 34% of the total lithium demand in 2026, rising to 42% by 2030 [12]. - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau recently issued a public notice on the proposed cancellation of 27 mining rights, which attracted wide attention in the domestic lithium - battery industry, and some involved enterprises raised objections. Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining area in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, is one of the 27 mining rights to be cancelled. On the evening of December 16, Jiangte Motor announced that it had submitted an objection application to the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau, proposed relevant solutions, and tried its best to renew the mining license for the Shiziling mining area. The company also stated that the notice is a proposed cancellation notice, and the final decision depends on the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau. The company obtained the mining license for the Shiziling mining area in 2014 and renewed it in 2019, with an annual production scale of 1.2 million tons and a mining area of 0.1114 square kilometers [13].

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货上涨，总持仓增 22591 手至 106 万手，现货电碳涨 800 至 93500，贸 易市场现货贴水扩大至 2800，短期期货价格快速上涨但现货跟涨有限，本周碳酸 锂周度产量增 59 吨至 21998 吨，主要增量来自于锂辉石端，云母产碳酸锂量跌至 2876 吨，本周社库去库 2133 吨，去库量较前一周有所下滑，维持前期去库力度 将减弱判断，而且短期期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of green columns. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 96,940 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 171,173 hands, up 6,764 hands; the position of the main contract is 543,633 hands, up 16,635 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 560 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 8,222 hands/ton, up 2,781 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 91,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,590 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,230 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 10,525 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,894 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 59.51%, down 0.1%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 45.26%, down 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 279,793 contracts, up 4,316 contracts; the total put position is 276,207 contracts, up 19,248 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 98.72%, up 5.4405%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.36%, down 0.0047% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a symposium on power and energy - storage battery manufacturing enterprises, aiming to promote high - quality development of the industry [2] - The deputy secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted that China's annual automobile sales will exceed 34 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 16 million vehicles and automobile exports expected to exceed 6.8 million vehicles [2] - Russian President Putin said that Chinese electric vehicles are more competitive than European ones [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The carbonate lithium futures price rose and then fell, with the decline expanding at the end of the session, closing at 95,850. The spot price increased by 500 to 93,300. The prices of Australian ore, mica, 6F, ternary and lithium iron electrolytes, ternary materials, and lithium iron materials all increased. The short - term carbonate lithium futures price is expected to be supported by the spot price, with limited downward space, but it is difficult to break the previous high after the emotional release [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the closing price at 95,850. The spot price rose to 93,300. The prices of upstream and downstream products in the industrial chain continued to increase. The futures market has large fluctuations due to emotions, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The short - term futures price is supported by the spot price, with limited downward space and difficult to break the previous high [11]. 2. Industry News - Critical Resources expanded the land holding area of its Mavis Lake project by 25% to over 400 square kilometers, strengthening its position in the emerging lithium corridor in north - western Ontario. It has identified 8 million tons of inferred mineral resources with a Li2O content of 1.07% and completed over 58,000 meters of drilling [12]. - At the 2025 Second China International Lithium Industry Conference, it was shown that the energy storage market has become the core growth pole of lithium demand. The global energy storage new - installed capacity in 2025 is expected to reach 268GWh, a year - on - year increase of 48%, with a compound growth rate of over 20% in the next decade. The carbonate lithium price has rebounded to over 90,000 yuan/ton, and the inventory days have dropped to a nearly three - year low of 32 days. The supply - demand pattern has turned to a tight balance. Some companies are accelerating the layout of solid - state batteries. The industry predicts that the global lithium demand will reach 2 million tons of carbonate lithium equivalent in 2026, and the price center may continue to rise [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Guangxi Futures Exchange regarding the adjustment of trading fees for lithium carbonate futures has led to a significant increase in trading activity and prices, with the main contract LC2601 reaching a new high of 99,300 yuan/ton [1][11]. Trading Fee Adjustment - Starting from November 20, 2025, the trading fee for the LC2601 contract will be adjusted to 0.12% of the transaction amount, which is expected to impact speculative trading behavior [1]. - The adjustment comes amid a backdrop of rising prices, with the main contract LC2601 increasing by 4.97% to 99,300 yuan/ton as of November 19 [1]. Market Activity and Speculation - The trading activity in lithium carbonate futures has surged, with a notable increase in the "transaction to open interest ratio," which reached a peak of 2.22 on November 19, indicating heightened speculative trading [4][8]. - The overall open interest for lithium carbonate futures rose by 77,500 contracts, corresponding to an influx of 2.894 billion yuan, making it the most active futures product in China [6]. Stock Market Impact - Lithium mining stocks have seen significant gains, with companies like Jinyuan Co. experiencing three consecutive days of trading limits, making the lithium sector a major focus in the stock market this week [2][11]. - The rise in lithium carbonate futures has driven the A-share lithium mining sector to new heights, with small-cap stocks experiencing notable price increases [11]. Current Price Trends - As of November 19, the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in the domestic market was reported at 88,900 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of approximately 8,000 yuan/ton since the beginning of the month [12]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has been reported as high as 93,000 to 97,000 yuan/ton by different market tracking agencies, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [12]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the current market sentiment among downstream enterprises remains cautious, with many opting for just-in-time purchasing rather than speculative buying [15][16]. - The potential for further regulatory measures by the exchange to curb excessive speculation remains, as historical data shows that trading fees have previously been set higher [11][17].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing price fluctuations, with futures prices showing a 10.87% increase in October, while the spot prices for battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate have also risen [1][2]. Supply Side - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October is expected to exceed 100,000 tons, driven by increased production capacity in Sichuan, Qinghai, and Jiangsu, despite some production disruptions due to a mine shutdown in Jiangxi [2]. - The import volume of lithium carbonate is projected to decline slightly due to reduced exports from Chile in September, with the main import sources being Chile and Argentina [2]. Consumption Side - The consumption of lithium carbonate continues to exceed expectations, particularly in the power and energy storage sectors, leading to increased procurement activities in the second half of October [2][4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong, with significant increases in orders for cathode materials observed mid-month, indicating a robust market [2][4]. Cost Side - Lithium ore prices have been volatile, with reports indicating prices nearing $1,000 per ton, impacting the cost structure for companies reliant on external lithium ore sources [3]. - Companies with self-supply advantages are maintaining high operational loads, while those dependent on purchased lithium ore face ongoing cost pressures [3]. Inventory Side - Total inventory levels have decreased significantly, with a reported drop of nearly 10,000 tons in October, indicating a tightening market [3]. - The lithium hydroxide market has seen price increases, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide averaging 77,375 yuan/ton by the end of October [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a price range of 75,000 to 85,000 yuan/ton for battery-grade lithium carbonate in the near term, with potential inventory turning points anticipated in late November [4].

Report Overview - Report Type: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The carbonate lithium futures continued to rise, with total positions increasing by 36,888 to 912,869 hands. Although the afternoon rally narrowed due to increased market selling pressure after the China-US summit in Busan, the upward trend is expected to continue. The current strong demand in the carbonate lithium market drives inventory reduction, and price transmission is smooth, with the price increase being acceptable to the industry. Moreover, the weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 228 tons to 21,080 tons, and it is expected to decline further in November and December. The weekly inventory decreased by 3,008 tons to 127,358 tons, indicating an accelerating de-stocking process [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: Carbonate lithium futures rose, with total positions increasing by 36,888 to 912,869 hands. The afternoon rally narrowed due to market selling pressure after the China-US summit in Busan [9]. - **Spot Market**: The carbonate lithium spot price increased by 850 to 80,000, Australian ore rose by 30 to 985, lithium mica rose by 50 to 2,180, ternary materials rose by 100 - 300, lithium iron phosphate rose by 200 - 255, and electrolytes rose by 500 - 850, showing a continuous price increase in the industrial chain [9]. - **Production and Inventory**: Weekly carbonate lithium production decreased by 228 tons to 21,080 tons, mainly due to a 270 - ton decrease in the production of carbonate lithium from spodumene. It is expected that production will decline in November and December. Weekly inventory decreased by 3,008 tons to 127,358 tons, with an accelerating de - stocking speed [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **New宙邦**: On October 29, at the performance briefing, New宙邦 stated that since the third quarter of 2025, the electrolyte industry has gradually rebounded from the historical low in the first half of the year. The price transmission of hexafluorophosphate to electrolytes is gradually taking effect. As some customers still have annual or semi - annual long - term contracts, the fourth quarter is a price transition period, but new contracts will fully refer to the latest hexafluorophosphate price, and the transmission efficiency will further improve [13]. - **Nandu Power Supply (300068)**: On October 29, during an institutional survey, Nandu Power Supply said that with the strategic layout of countries for large - scale grid connection of renewable energy and improved energy security, the energy storage market is growing rapidly. The company currently has about 8.9 billion yuan in unshipped orders, including about 5.5 billion yuan in large - scale energy storage orders (4 billion yuan domestic and 1.5 billion yuan overseas), about 1.67 billion yuan in data center lithium - battery orders (all overseas), about 380 million yuan in unshipped orders for civilian lithium - battery products, about 470 million yuan in communication lithium - battery orders (with a small overseas proportion), and about 790 million yuan in lead - acid battery orders (mostly domestic). The company's overseas large - scale energy storage orders mainly come from countries and regions such as Australia, Europe, and the UK [13][14].