碳酸锂现货
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碳酸锂期货日报-20260227
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 01:41
碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 研究员:彭婧霖 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 图1:碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2:碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货冲高回落,总持仓小增 2957,市场继续交易津巴布韦锂矿禁令,日内 雅化集团、华友钴业以及中矿资源回应,一度缓解市场对该禁令的担忧,多头有 止盈离场。钢联晚盘现货电碳报价涨 10700 至 176000,澳矿涨 90,锂云母涨 155, 三元持平,铁锂涨 2000-2100,产业链涨价潮持续,本周碳酸锂社库较节前去库 2839 吨至 100093 吨。短期随着供应端炒作 ...
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260212
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 09:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may show a situation of weak supply and demand due to the influence of the pre - holiday period. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 106,902 hands, a decrease of 1,086 hands; the position of the main contract is 353,975 hands, a decrease of 2,556 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 3,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,940 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZFE is 37,282 hands, an increase of 1,755 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 11,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,840 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,950 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 6,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly output of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, a decrease of 33,700 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 130,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate is 47,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 197,500 yuan/ton; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 0%, a decrease of 50 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 0%, a decrease of 60 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,041,000 vehicles, a decrease of 677,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 945,000 vehicles, a decrease of 765,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 40.28%, a decrease of 7.65 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 945,000 vehicles, an increase of 1,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, an increase of 152,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 102,942 contracts, an increase of 6,101 contracts; the total holding of put options is 93,278 contracts, an increase of 4,780 contracts; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 90.61%, a decrease of 0.7727 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.65%, an increase of 0.0320 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - In January, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The sales volume of power batteries was 102.7 GWh, accounting for 69.0% of the total sales, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 63.2%; the sales volume of energy - storage batteries was 46.1 GWh, accounting for 31.0% of the total sales, a month - on - month decrease of 17.0% and a year - on - year increase of 164.0%. The domestic power battery loading volume was 42.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 48.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 32.7 GWh, accounting for 77.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 59.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [2] - Most key automobile enterprises have compressed the payment period to within 60 days, with an average payment period of about 54 days (about 10 days shorter than the same period last year), and 4 enterprises have an average payment period of less than 50 days [2] - Sichuan Province supports automobile replacement and renewal. In 2026, individual consumers who transfer their registered passenger cars through sale and purchase new - energy passenger cars in the "Catalogue of New - Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax" or fuel - powered passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less will be given a one - time subsidy. For those who exchange for eligible new - energy passenger cars, a subsidy of 8% of the new - car sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan; for those who exchange for eligible fuel - powered passenger cars, a subsidy of 6% of the new - car sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 13,000 yuan [2] - In January 2026, the automobile industry in China maintained stable operation. The production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with the production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and the sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. The new - energy automobile market maintained stable operation, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. The commercial vehicle market continued the positive trend, with both production and sales maintaining double - digit growth year - on - year in January. In terms of automobile exports, it continued to grow. The export of new - energy vehicles maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 vehicles exported, a year - on - year increase of 100% [2] 3.8 Technical Analysis - The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2]
华泰期货:碳酸锂期货盘面冲高回落,未来预期持续向好
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 01:39
Market Overview - As of January 30, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures closed at 148,200 CNY/ton, with a monthly price increase of 21.9% [2][12] - The highest price during the month reached 181,520 CNY/ton [2] - The average market price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate (99.0%) was 167,000 CNY/ton, up 41.53% year-on-year [2][12] - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 170,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 41.67% increase year-on-year [2][12] Supply Side - Domestic lithium carbonate production in January was 104,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% month-on-month [3][13] - Stringent regulations from the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" have led to production cuts in some enterprises, particularly in Jiangxi [3][13] - Supply is expected to remain constrained into February due to pre-holiday production adjustments and shutdowns [3][13] Demand Side - Demand has exceeded expectations, driven by policy changes that reduced export tax on battery products, stimulating "export rush" [4][13] - The release of policies for large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs has improved demand forecasts for the new energy vehicle market [4][13] - Despite traditional seasonal demand declines in January, the overall market for terminal power and energy storage has performed well [4][13] Cost and Profitability - Costs have continued to rise, with prices exceeding 11,000 USD/ton [14] - Profit margins have improved for companies with their own mines and salt lakes, while contract manufacturing fees have seen slight increases [14] Inventory Levels - Total inventory decreased to 107,500 tons, with lithium salt plant inventory stable and downstream inventory slightly reduced [14] Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced a new capacity pricing mechanism, which is expected to positively impact storage demand and lithium carbonate prices [5][14] Strategy Outlook - The new capacity pricing policy is anticipated to boost demand expectations, with lithium carbonate prices likely to continue rising [6][15] - However, caution is advised due to previous price increases and potential risks of market corrections [6][15]
供应扰动再发酵,碳酸锂尾盘涨停!高波动行情或仍将延续
券商中国· 2026-01-20 14:54
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has experienced a significant rebound, with the main contract reaching a limit-up of 8.99% on January 20, driven by supply concerns and improved supply-demand dynamics compared to previous periods [1][2]. Supply Concerns - Supply worries have resurfaced, leading to a sharp increase in lithium carbonate prices, with the main contract closing at 160,500 yuan/ton and a daily increase of 4,020 contracts, bringing total open interest to 415,400 contracts [2]. - The mining projects of Jiangxi's Ganxian and Guoxuan Electronic are facing potential production halts due to ongoing environmental assessments and permit applications, raising market concerns about supply disruptions [2][3]. - The tightening of supply is further exacerbated by the publication of the "Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Action Plan," which emphasizes tailings management as a critical focus for lithium production [2]. Market Dynamics - The current supply-demand structure for lithium carbonate has shown significant improvement, with January exhibiting "not a dull season" characteristics due to strong export demand, resulting in a decrease of 263 tons in inventory [4]. - Positive signals from the overseas electric vehicle market, such as Canada granting quotas for Chinese electric vehicles and Germany planning to resume electric vehicle subsidies, are contributing to a healthier demand structure [4]. - The recent price adjustments have led to increased purchasing activity from downstream enterprises, with a notable daily transaction volume of 7,480 tons, indicating effective support for price levels [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The core market contradiction lies in locked inventories and limited available spot supplies, with traders holding back stock, while short positions remain rigid [5]. - There is potential for further price increases driven by news stimuli, but the current high valuation of lithium prices suggests a volatile market environment [5]. - The market has entered a high-volatility phase, making short-term trend trading more challenging, and industry clients are advised to focus on hedging strategies and position management [5].
南华期货碳酸锂数据日报-20260114
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 09:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. The report seems to be a comprehensive data - driven analysis of the lithium carbonate market, presenting various data on futures, spot, basis, and cost - profit aspects. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - The strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 68.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 94.9% [3] - The closing price of the main contract is 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan (3.02%) daily and up 19,640 yuan (13.80%) weekly. The trading volume is 589,019 lots, down 19,158 lots (3.15%) daily and up 168,612 lots (40.11%) weekly. The open interest is 452,583 lots, down 7,698 lots (1.67%) daily and down 53,937 lots (10.65%) weekly [4] - The closing price of the weighted - index contract is 162,418 yuan/ton, down 5,025 yuan (3.00%) daily and up 19,892 yuan (13.96%) weekly. The trading volume is 1,086,844 lots, down 95,128 lots (8.05%) daily and up 349,719 lots (47.44%) weekly. The open interest is 886,318 lots, down 15,033 lots (1.67%) daily and down 77,914 lots (8.08%) weekly [4] - The price differences between different contracts (e.g., LC2605 - LC2607, LC2605 - LC2609, LC2607 - LC2609) have different daily and weekly changes [4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 26,898 lots, up 928 lots (3.57%) daily and up 3,757 lots (16.24%) weekly [4] 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium ore segment, prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene from different sources have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest average price of 2 - 2.5% lithium mica is 4,990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.81%) daily [22] - In the lithium salt segment, prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.24%) daily [22] - For cell materials, prices of some materials increased while others remained unchanged. For example, the price of energy - storage lithium iron phosphate is 57,190 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan (1.69%) daily [23] - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.978, up 0.0033 (0.05%) [23] - The differences between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and domestic prices also have corresponding daily and weekly changes [26] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and the near - month contract of lithium carbonate are presented in the form of historical charts [29][30] - Different lithium carbonate brands have different basis quotes for the LC2601 contract, with some having zero daily changes and some having non - zero changes [31] - The total number of warehouse receipts is 26,898 lots, up 928 lots. Different storage locations have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35] 3.4 Cost - Profit Data - The production profits of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) are presented in historical charts [37] - The production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticizing method and smelting method are presented in historical charts [37] - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are presented in historical charts [38][39]
碳酸锂期货突破15万元大关 机构提示追高风险
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-12 18:09
Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged significantly due to changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the main contract reaching a new high of 156,060 yuan/ton on January 12, marking a 9% increase for the day [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On January 12, the lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the daily limit, breaking through the 150,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative increase of over 160% since the low point in June 2025 [2][3]. - The surge in prices is primarily driven by market reactions to adjustments in export tax rebate policies for lithium battery products, which are expected to lead to a concentrated "export rush" [2][3]. - The current low inventory levels across the supply chain are providing significant support for prices, as downstream companies are adjusting their production and procurement strategies in anticipation of policy changes [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, driven by steady growth in electric vehicle sales and expanding demand in the energy storage sector, which is seen as a potential variable for exceeding expectations [3][4]. - The supply side is facing constraints, with new supply primarily relying on leading companies' lithium mining capacity, which is hindered by long construction cycles and stricter environmental regulations [4]. - Institutions believe that the lithium industry is transitioning from a phase of oversupply to a "tight balance" state, with 2026 potentially being a pivotal year for supply-demand relationships [4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Sentiment - Despite the overall positive market sentiment, there are warnings about potential supply-side elasticity and the risks of price volatility due to excessive speculative behavior [5][6]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculation, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange taking action against clients exceeding trading limits on lithium carbonate contracts [5][6].
供需博弈加剧!碳酸锂期货突破12万元/吨,广期所发布风控措施,机构提示回调风险
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-12-26 10:13
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by supply-side disruptions, particularly the proposed cancellation of mining rights in Yichun, which has raised concerns about supply constraints, despite a stable increase in lithium production [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On December 24, the main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 113,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,360 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 5.23% [1]. - As of December 25, the price settled at 119,840 yuan/ton, indicating ongoing volatility in the market [1]. - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau announced the potential cancellation of 27 mining licenses, which has contributed to market concerns about supply reduction [2]. - Despite these concerns, domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by approximately 3% month-on-month in December, indicating no substantial supply-demand imbalance [1][3]. Production and Inventory Trends - The total lithium carbonate production for the week was reported at 22,045 tons, with a slight increase from the previous week [6]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased to 110,425 tons, down 1,044 tons from the previous week, suggesting a continued trend of inventory reduction [6][7]. - The comprehensive operating rate of lithium salt plants in December was around 68%, showing a slight increase, with no signs of production cuts anticipated [7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, with downstream material manufacturers actively signing contracts and preparing for the upcoming Spring Festival [6][9]. - However, there is a cautious sentiment among downstream manufacturers regarding current spot prices, with procurement primarily focused on essential needs rather than speculative buying [9]. - The market is currently experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, with potential over-speculation noted [10]. - Future price movements will depend on supply-side developments, including the status of major mining projects and the import volume of lithium concentrate [10].
碳酸锂期货日报-20251225
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 03:48
1. Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Carbonate lithium futures rose to a new high in two years, with total positions decreasing by 9,244 lots and increasing capital exit sentiment. The spot price increased by 2,000 to 101,500, Australian ore rose by 30 to 1,435, mica rose by 85 to 3,210, ternary materials rose by 700 - 800, lithium iron phosphate rose by 470 - 490, and electrolyte prices remained flat. The industry chain price increase trend continued, and there was still fundamental support. However, the short - term deviation between futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium was large. As the LC2601 contract was about to enter delivery, the pressure of futures - spot convergence might slow down the short - term upward pace of lithium prices [11] 3. Industry News Summary - On December 24, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that it had acquired two salt lake lithium mines in Argentina at low cost at the bottom of the industry cycle, and 100% equity transfer procedures had been completed. The two salt lake lithium mines were still in the exploration and construction stage [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued several opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation. They supported new energy bases such as large - scale "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new energy bases for external transmission, water - wind - solar bases for external transmission, and various self - use bases with suitable technical and economic conditions to carry out solar thermal power station project construction. They would scientifically determine the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation in the bases, optimize and improve the base regulation capacity, increase the proportion of green electricity in the base, reduce the average carbon emissions per kilowatt - hour of the base, strengthen the stable transmission of new energy, and actively explore the role of technically and economically feasible solar thermal power stations as supporting and regulating power sources in large bases [12]
碳酸锂期货日报-20251223
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 07:22
Group 1: General Information - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures reached a new high this year, with total positions increasing by 26,408 lots, and the 05 - 01 spread widening to 1,900. Spot electric carbon rose 1,350 to 99,000. The trade market's premium/discount to the main contract was reported at (-3,500, -1,500). Australian ore rose 50 to 1,385, lithium mica ore rose 85 to 2,920, ternary materials rose 500 - 1,000, iron - lithium rose 315 - 330, and electrolyte remained flat [9]. - The slowdown in demand at the end of the year was obvious. The weekly production of power lithium batteries, ternary, and iron - lithium all slowed down last week, and the weekly de - stocking volume slowed down for three consecutive weeks [9]. - Overall, there was an expected difference on the supply side of carbonate lithium, and demand slowed down slightly. It was expected that the de - stocking intensity of carbonate lithium would stop falling and rise, and carbonate lithium futures were prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. Group 3: Industry News - Over 60% of global key mineral demand was met through international trade, making the global supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, export controls, and refining bottlenecks. The supply - side vulnerability was increasing as the demand for major energy - transition minerals was expected to rise sharply by 2040. Copper and nickel markets might face shortages in the mid - 2030s, and lithium supply was concentrated in a few countries, with the concentration of the refining segment increasing from about 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024. Governments had accelerated their responses, with the number of key mineral policies issued since 2020 nearly doubling that of the previous two decades [12]. - Battery metals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt had faced a third difficult year, struggling to digest the supply wave after the 2022 price surge. However, the electric vehicle revolution continued, and the demand for batteries and battery - forming metals was still growing rapidly. Chinese companies were leading a technological revolution to develop more powerful batteries at lower costs. Not all battery metals would succeed in the intense competition. In the first 11 months of 2025, global electric vehicle sales increased by 21% year - on - year to 18.5 million. The Chinese electric vehicle market was mainly dominated by lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which were safer, cheaper, and had a narrowing performance gap compared to NCM batteries. In 2024, LFP batteries accounted for 48% of global electric vehicle batteries, and Macquarie Bank expected this proportion to rise to 65% by 2029 [13].
碳酸锂期货日报-20251218
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 03:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures rose, with the intraday gain of the main contract approaching the daily limit. The market continued to trade on the disturbance in Yichun's mining end. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor announced the proposed cancellation of its Shiziling mining area, which pushed up the lithium price. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800, and the prices in the industrial chain showed a stable upward trend. With the short - term supply - side disturbance, the market's bullish sentiment was high, breaking through the previous high, and a new round of upward trend in lithium prices was expected [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the intraday gain of the main contract almost hit the daily limit. The market focused on the mining - end disturbance in Yichun. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of the Shiziling mining area led to the high - opening and high - walking of the lithium price during the day. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1200 to 97050, the price of spodumene rose by 70 to 1330, the price of lepidolite increased by 85 to 2785, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 300, and the price of lithium iron phosphate rose by 280 - 295. The upward trend in the industrial chain was stable, and the lithium price was expected to continue rising [11]. 3.2. Industry News - A joint report by global consulting firm Kearney and the World Economic Forum showed that the global lithium supply can only meet one - third (35%) of the predicted demand in 2035. The report warned that the pace of global electrification, digitalization, and emission reduction is faster than the supply speed of mineral resources. The lithium supply needs to more than double by 2035, and the production of rare - earth elements and copper must increase by over 50%. By 2035, electric vehicles will account for 86% of the total lithium demand, 55% of the cobalt demand, and one - third of the total rare - earth consumption. Even if all announced projects are implemented, existing mines and smelters can only meet 35 - 45% of the predicted demand for lithium and graphite. There is a significant time mismatch in the value chain due to the long development cycle (10 - 20 years) of new mining projects compared to the 1 - 3 - year scale - up time for battery and motor factories. To achieve electrification goals, 60 million kilometers of transmission lines need to be newly built or replaced by 2035, and the grid infrastructure will account for 22% of the global copper demand, 29% of the vanadium demand, and 7% of the lithium demand [12]. - J.P. Morgan's latest report predicted that the average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 will be $17,500 per ton, a 43% increase from the previous forecast, and $22,000 per ton in 2027, a 66% increase. It is estimated that the lithium production of Chilean lithium producer SQM in 2026 will reach 275,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with 250,000 tons from Chile and 25,000 tons from Australia. The demand for energy - storage system batteries in 2026 is expected to reach 900 gigawatt - hours, a 17% increase from the previous forecast, and energy - storage systems will account for 34% of the total lithium demand in 2026, rising to 42% by 2030 [12]. - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau recently issued a public notice on the proposed cancellation of 27 mining rights, which attracted wide attention in the domestic lithium - battery industry, and some involved enterprises raised objections. Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining area in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, is one of the 27 mining rights to be cancelled. On the evening of December 16, Jiangte Motor announced that it had submitted an objection application to the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau, proposed relevant solutions, and tried its best to renew the mining license for the Shiziling mining area. The company also stated that the notice is a proposed cancellation notice, and the final decision depends on the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau. The company obtained the mining license for the Shiziling mining area in 2014 and renewed it in 2019, with an annual production scale of 1.2 million tons and a mining area of 0.1114 square kilometers [13].