碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 8 月 27 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货探底回升，总持仓总成交继续下降，市场交投情绪下降。盘面持续 back 结构，交割月临近，09 合约对现货继续报贴水，日内现货电碳跌 800 至 81700， 贴水幅度缩窄至 2440，下游采购及点价行为较昨日略有增多。但部分厂商因此前 有大量采购行为，本周采购量级较上周相比有所收窄。下游整体采购心态转向谨 慎，普遍观望等待价格进一步下调。澳矿继续持平920，锂 ...

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 每日报告 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂震荡微跌，总持仓总成交均下降，市场交投情绪下降，现货电碳跌 1400 至 82500，现货继续对盘面升水近 3000，下游采购及点价行为较上周趋于平稳。 因上周市场成交活跃，下游库存量级有所增多。今日成交量出现回落，下游采购 心态转向谨慎，普遍观望等待价格进一步下调。澳矿持平920，锂云母跌60至1995， 外购锂辉石盐厂盈利缩窄至 2516，外购锂云母盐厂亏损扩 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Carbonate lithium futures rose significantly, with the main contract breaking through 90,000 yuan during the session. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan, Australian ore rose by 45 to 1,035, lithium mica ore rose by 85 to 2,185, 5-series power-type ternary materials rose by 500, and lithium iron phosphate rose by 515. The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 1,069, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica expanded to 4,968. The current futures price has a premium of over 4,000 yuan over the spot price [12]. - **Main Drivers**: The rise was mainly due to the news that the mining license of Qinghai Xitai Jinaier Salt Lake of CITIC Guoan expired, and short - term disturbances in the resource side were the main cause of lithium price fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: The high supply is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, but the market's short - term trading sentiment is still concentrated on the production cuts and suspensions in the lithium resource sector. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium is likely to rise and difficult to fall [12]. Group 3: Industry News - **Ganfeng Lithium**: On August 18, Ganfeng Lithium stated on the interactive platform that the future reversal of lithium prices depends on the intensity of supply - side clearance and the pace of demand growth. The company is optimistic about long - term lithium demand, will adjust production capacity flexibly and optimize hedging strategies, and the current volume of carbonate lithium futures hedging is low [13]. - **India's Policy Proposal**: India proposed to reduce the goods and services tax for entry - level two - wheelers, small cars, and hybrid passenger cars, and the proposal is expected to be implemented before October [13]

Group 1 - The recent news of the suspension of lithium mining by CATL has led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, which in turn has caused a surge in the stock prices of domestic lithium mining companies, with Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares rising over 22% at one point this week [1] - Eight major dry-process lithium battery separator companies, including Xingyuan Material and Zhongxing New Material, have reached several agreements to combat industry overcapacity, including price discipline, scientific capacity release, and halting expansion [1] - According to Citic Securities' chief analyst Wu Weichen, the battery sector's performance is expected to exceed expectations due to improved supply and demand dynamics, with additional profit elasticity from lower raw material costs and increased operating rates anticipated by Q2 2025 [1] Group 2 - Wu Weichen expresses a strong outlook on the allocation value of China's core battery assets, highlighting that these assets have significant advantages over Japanese and Korean companies, and the valuation of Chinese battery assets is expected to rise further as more battery companies list H-shares [3]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on lithium carbonate futures dated August 13, 2025, written by the Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of CCB Futures Research and Development Department [2][4][6] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The market traded supply - side disturbances. There was an unconfirmed rumor of Albemarle's Chilean production line shutdown, which drove the futures price up to 88,000, but the gain narrowed at the end of the session [12] - Spot prices increased, with electric carbon rising 3,500 to 78,000. Market sentiment improved, downstream inquiries increased, and procurement willingness strengthened, leading to better trading volume [12] - The production loss of mica salt plants using purchased materials narrowed to 5,942, while that of lithium spodumene salt plants using purchased materials widened to 1,176. Salt plants' production enthusiasm is high, and the impact of the Jiaxiaowo mine shutdown on the market is weakening. There is a risk of a short - term peak and decline [12] Group 3: Industry News - Mercedes - Benz opened a lithium - ion battery recycling plant in Germany. It uses Primobius GmbH technology, has an annual processing capacity of 2,500 tons, and can produce materials for over 50,000 Mercedes - Benz EV battery modules [13] - There was market news that Albemarle's lithium carbonate production line in Chile was partially shut down due to safety issues, causing the futures price to rise by over 3,000 yuan. Albemarle's total lithium carbonate capacity in Chile is 80,000 tons per year, but the news was unconfirmed [13][14] - In July, new - energy vehicle sales reached 1.262 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [14]

Market Overview - On August 11, Hong Kong's three major indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.19% to 24,906.81 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.01% to 5,460.02 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.08% to 8,888.08 points [1] - The market saw active performance in the metals and pharmaceuticals sectors, while the new consumption sector experienced widespread declines [1] - Notable individual stock movements included Bilibili rising nearly 2.5%, Alibaba increasing by nearly 2%, and declines in Huahong, Meituan, and Xiaomi [1] Southbound Capital - On August 11, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 0.38 million HKD into Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of 900.84 billion HKD year-to-date, significantly surpassing the total net inflow for the entire previous year [1][2] Overnight US Market - The US stock market saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.45%, the S&P 500 down by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.3% [1] - Major tech stocks such as Apple and Amazon also experienced declines, with Apple down by 0.83% and Amazon by 0.62% [1] Lithium Market Dynamics - On August 11, the suspension of lithium mining operations by CATL triggered a market surge, with all futures contracts for lithium carbonate hitting the upper limit, leading to significant increases in domestic lithium carbonate spot prices and lithium mining stocks [2] - Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares saw an intraday increase of over 22% [2] Automotive Industry Performance - In July, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7% [2] - New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, with year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4% [2] - Exports of new energy vehicles totaled 225,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 120% [2] Investment Trends - The Chinese stock market has seen increased trading activity, with significant inflows into thematic ETFs and a notable recovery in the issuance of actively managed equity funds since July [2] - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have exceeded 900 billion HKD this year, setting a historical record [2] Short Selling Data - On August 11, a total of 636 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with a total short-selling amount of 22.138 billion HKD [3] - The top three stocks by short-selling amount were Meituan, Xiaomi Group, and Tencent Holdings, with short-selling amounts of 1.136 billion HKD, 1.04 billion HKD, and 1.007 billion HKD, respectively [3] Institutional Insights - According to recent market strategies from China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong stock market may enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a focus on potential rebound opportunities in tech stocks [4] - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains bullish due to factors such as the economic cycle being at a low point, supportive monetary policies, ample liquidity, and low valuations [4] - The upcoming earnings disclosures from leading tech companies in mid-August may serve as a catalyst for a new wave of tech market activity [4]

Report Overview - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Key Points 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market's hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled over time. The focus of the spot market has shifted slightly downward, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures market rose and then fell. The market hype about the mining end in Yichun has cooled. The spot market focus has shifted slightly downward, with the electric carbon price dropping by 150 to 71,200. The downstream production of cathodes and cells is growing optimistically, and procurement demand has increased, but actual transactions are mainly for essential needs due to the strengthening basis. The market is cautious and waiting for the upstream lithium resource production suspension situation to be clarified, so short-term cautious observation is recommended [12]. 3.2 Industry News - Chang'an Qiyuan announced its new car sales in July 2025, with 28,568 vehicles delivered in July and cumulative sales exceeding 190,000 from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 30%. The cumulative sales of Qiyuan Q07 exceeded 40,000, and Qiyuan A06 will be officially launched in the second half of the year [13]. - Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. produced 10,745 vehicles in July 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%, and sold 10,280 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6.38%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 78,754 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 162.05%, and the cumulative sales were 77,432 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 98.58% [13]. - On August 1, 2025, Tieling Economic Development Zone signed a contract with Guosheng Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 3 billion yuan and an area of 230 mu. The industrial park will be built in two phases to create a complete industrial chain, including the production and recycling of positive and negative electrode materials for high-performance solid-state batteries, cell manufacturing, and Pack lines. The project will also enter cutting-edge fields such as heterojunction tandem perovskite and new energy high-end equipment R & D and manufacturing [13].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline, hitting a low of 66,720. The spot price was relatively resistant to decline, with the electric carbon price dropping by 950 to 72,000. The spot price remained at a premium to the futures price. The downstream market was still cautious, and the actual trading volume did not increase significantly. The ore price followed the decline, and the production profit of salt factories using spodumene decreased, while the loss of those using mica increased. The supply was expected to remain high in the short term, and the fundamentals were not supportive of the price. The futures price mainly followed the market's trading of the anti - involution logic, and the downside space was expected to be limited due to the spot price being higher than the futures price [11] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Trend: The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline and closed with a long lower - shadow doji. The lowest price of the main contract reached 66,720 [11] - Spot Market: The electric carbon price dropped by 950 to 72,000, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price. The downstream inquiry activity increased, but the actual trading volume did not increase proportionally, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [11] - Ore Price: The Australian ore price dropped by 17.5 to 762.5 US dollars per ton, and the mica price dropped by 25 to 1,750 yuan per ton. The production profit of salt factories using spodumene decreased to 2,075, and the loss of those using mica expanded to 7,136 [11] - Supply Outlook: The production of carbonate lithium from spodumene was expected to increase further, while the production from mica needed to monitor the shutdown situation in Jiangxi. The supply was expected to remain high in the short term [11] Group 5: Industry News - Ningde Times: In Q2 2025, its combined sales of power and energy storage batteries were close to 150 GWh, a year - on - year increase of over 30%. The energy storage accounted for about 20%. It had over 10 years of R & D experience in solid - state batteries and had an industry - leading R & D team. The scientific problems in the solid - state battery industry were basically solved, but commercialization was still some way off [14] - South Korean Electronics Company and Tesla: A South Korean electronics company reached a 4.3 - billion - dollar supply agreement with Tesla to supply LFP energy storage batteries from 2027 for a three - year period with an option to extend to seven years. The batteries will be produced in a Michigan factory, helping Tesla reduce its dependence on Chinese - imported batteries. The South Korean company planned to increase its North American energy storage battery production capacity to 30 GWh by 2026 [14][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply during the session, closing up 0.43%. The spot price slightly declined, with electric carbon dropping by 200 to 72,950. The ore price remained flat. The production profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene decreased by 78 to 2,411 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica narrowed by 186 to 6,782 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and the fundamentals are difficult to support the lithium carbonate price. Due to the market's enthusiasm for the anti - involution theme, the lithium carbonate price is more likely to rise than fall, and the support level for the futures price is around 68,000 [11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, rising 0.43% at the close. After the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution again, the futures turned from rising to falling during the session, with the lowest point at 68,500, but rebounded at the end of the session. The spot price slightly declined, and the current spot price is still at a premium to the futures. The production profit of spodumene - based salt plants decreased, and the production loss of mica - based salt plants narrowed. The supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and the price is supported at around 68,000 [11]. 2. Industry News - Super - battery Group's "Yuanwang Energy Storage Technology Agricultural Photovoltaic Complementary 46MW/92.16MWh Lead - Carbon Energy Storage Project" started in Tai'an, Shandong [14]. - LG Energy Solution won a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery supply project worth about 43 billion US dollars (5.9442 trillion won), accounting for 23.2% of its 2024 annual sales. The contract will take effect on August 1, 2025, with a term of three years and can be extended [14]. - Sungrow signed a cooperation agreement with European energy storage solution provider SUNOTEC to provide 2.4GWh of battery energy storage systems for its European solar projects, with the first batch of projects in Bulgaria, etc., which will accelerate the intelligent upgrade of the regional power system [13][15].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures market rose due to the overnight announcement of Jiangte Motor's production line maintenance and the fermentation of the anti-involution logic. The spot market also slightly followed the increase. The downstream's willingness to accept the price was low, but the procurement intention improved marginally. The rising price of lithium carbonate drove the profit repair of the upstream resource end and salt factories, but the price performance was suppressed by the arbitrage space. However, under the current sentiment, lithium carbonate is expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures opened higher. The main contract reached a maximum of 74,480 and closed at 72,880. The total position increased by 40,000 hands to 718,000 hands. The spot price of electric carbon rose by 1,100 to 69,100. The downstream's acceptance of the price was low, but the procurement intention improved. The price of Australian ore rose by 10 US dollars/ton to 767.5 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica rose by 45 to 1,590 yuan/ton. The production profit of salt factories using purchased lithium spodumene expanded to 833 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt factories using purchased lithium mica narrowed to 5,969 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industry News - Argentina's CAMMESA's first-round battery energy storage system tender received 27 projects from 15 companies, totaling 1.3 GW of bidding plans, far exceeding the 500 MW tender capacity. The winning results are expected to be announced in August 2025, and the contracts will be signed in September [14]. - On the morning of July 17, Jiangsu Weili Energy Technology Co., Ltd. launched a project with a total investment of 500 million yuan to process 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode materials per year. The first phase is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual revenue of 550 million yuan and more than 200 new jobs [15].