国泰君安期货首席分析师邵婉嫕认为，碳酸锂期货价格上涨的主要原因是当前市场情绪向好。 中信建投期货分析师张维鑫表示，当前碳酸锂的价格中枢处在上升趋势中，消息面利多更容易引发市场看涨情绪升温。 "在宏观预期向好的情况下，市场开始不断上调对2025年及2026年碳酸锂的需求预期。"兴业期货分析师刘启跃表示，当前碳酸锂期货价格上涨，主要原因 是需求预期较为乐观。具体来看，动力电池方面，2026年新能源车购置税减免政策退坡导致今年年末出现动力电芯抢装现象，预计11—12月新能源车渗透 率将进一步增长至60%左右；储能电池方面，市场普遍预计2026年装机增速超过40%，需求增量可观。 从基本面来看，当前碳酸锂市场呈现供需双强的态势。供应方面，根据SMM数据，国内碳酸锂月度产量继续大幅增长，10月产量环比增长5.7%，至9.23 万吨。需求方面，储能端表现亮眼，今年1—10月储能电芯产量为409.4GWh，同比增长55%。 中信期货分析师杨飞表示，预计11月下旬到12月碳酸锂需求保持强势，需密切关注明年一季度淡季的需求表现。 "当前，市场普遍预期宁德时代枧下窝锂矿短期难以复产，今年年底供应增量有限，加之需求表现亮眼，碳酸锂 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side is affected by the shutdown of Ningde Jianxiawo Mine for 3 months and the mine - right transfer re - review notices in Yichun and Qinghai. Although the domestic carbonate lithium production in October increased by 10% month - on - month and the imported lithium concentrate in September was 711,000 tons, a 14.7% month - on - month increase, the import of carbonate lithium in September decreased by 10.3% month - on - month. The cost of some manufacturers using imported lithium ore is upside - down, while self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have some profit support [5][6]. - The demand side is strong. In October, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month. In September, the production of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. The production, export, and sales of power and other batteries all showed significant growth. The new energy vehicle market is expected to continue to grow rapidly due to policies. The inventory of carbonate lithium is in a destocking state this week [6]. - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium remain in a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. With the strong demand in the energy storage terminal, the production of ore - extracted lithium continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and inventory is transferred downstream. The price of carbonate lithium is expected to be supported. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the progress of Yichun mine certificates and the resumption of production of Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views Supply - Last week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 145 tons to 23,465 tons, and the production in October increased by 10% month - on - month to 105,040 tons. Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is shut down for 3 months, and enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received mine - right transfer re - review notices. In the third quarter, Australian mines controlled costs, and the space for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 [5]. - In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, that from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, that from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month, and that from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons. The import of carbonate lithium in September was 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost upside - down for some carbonate lithium manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - In October, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, and in September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month increase and a 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month increase and a 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month increase and a 42.2% year - on - year increase. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,075 tons, market inventory decreasing by 1,273 tons, and futures inventory decreasing by 289 tons [6]. Strategy Recommendations - Considering the supply side, with the ongoing shutdown of Ningde Jianxiawo Mine, the domestic production of carbonate lithium in October increased by 10% month - on - month, and the import of lithium concentrate in September increased by 14.7% month - on - month, while the import of carbonate lithium decreased by about 10% month - on - month but increased by 20% year - on - year. The downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand remain in a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply [6]. - From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. In September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month, and the production schedule of cathode materials in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. With profit restoration, the production of ore - extracted lithium continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and inventory is transferred downstream. The price of carbonate lithium is expected to be supported. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the progress of Yichun mine certificates and the resumption of production of Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and factory monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of different types of batteries and cathode materials, average production cost of carbonate lithium, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, etc. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the time series and data ranges of these data are shown [8][10][11][15][17][20][21][23][26][27][30][34][36][38][40].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing price fluctuations, with futures prices showing a 10.87% increase in October, while the spot prices for battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate have also risen [1][2]. Supply Side - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October is expected to exceed 100,000 tons, driven by increased production capacity in Sichuan, Qinghai, and Jiangsu, despite some production disruptions due to a mine shutdown in Jiangxi [2]. - The import volume of lithium carbonate is projected to decline slightly due to reduced exports from Chile in September, with the main import sources being Chile and Argentina [2]. Consumption Side - The consumption of lithium carbonate continues to exceed expectations, particularly in the power and energy storage sectors, leading to increased procurement activities in the second half of October [2][4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong, with significant increases in orders for cathode materials observed mid-month, indicating a robust market [2][4]. Cost Side - Lithium ore prices have been volatile, with reports indicating prices nearing $1,000 per ton, impacting the cost structure for companies reliant on external lithium ore sources [3]. - Companies with self-supply advantages are maintaining high operational loads, while those dependent on purchased lithium ore face ongoing cost pressures [3]. Inventory Side - Total inventory levels have decreased significantly, with a reported drop of nearly 10,000 tons in October, indicating a tightening market [3]. - The lithium hydroxide market has seen price increases, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide averaging 77,375 yuan/ton by the end of October [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a price range of 75,000 to 85,000 yuan/ton for battery-grade lithium carbonate in the near term, with potential inventory turning points anticipated in late November [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction. The price of lithium carbonate may be supported. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a change rate of +5.05% and an amplitude of 7.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 79,520 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macro Aspect**: The communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas miners continue to support prices. The current demand of lithium salt plants is good, and the ore price rises with the lithium price. The smelters maintain a high production schedule, and the domestic lithium carbonate supply shows a stable growth trend. The downstream material factories have good production and order situations. The power battery benefits from the peak consumption season of the new energy vehicle industry, and the energy storage market also maintains a high growth rate. The domestic demand for lithium carbonate is strong, and the industrial inventory is gradually reduced [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control trading rhythm to manage risks [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 79,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,820 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,050 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 4,120 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,770 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Spodumene**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 897 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1221, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% [24]. - **Lepidolite**: As of the latest data, the average price of lepidolite (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,835 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 112 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 8,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 700 yuan/ton [31]. 3.4 Industry Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons from August, a decline of 10.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.49%. The monthly export volume was 150.816 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons from August, a decline of 59.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.07% [34]. - **Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from August, an increase of 2.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 47.59%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [34]. 3.5 Downstream Demand - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price was 95,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, an increase of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25% [38]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 246,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from August, an increase of 2.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 35.93%. The monthly operating rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [41]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 63,140 tons, a decrease of 2,720 tons from August, a decline of 4.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.56%. The monthly operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to strengthen [46]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,920 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from August, a decline of 3.97%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.52%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [51]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,080 tons, an increase of 100 tons from August, an increase of 0.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 103.23% [54]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% and a year - on - year increase of 7.52%. The monthly production was 1,617,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 16.25%, and the monthly sales were 1,604,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 14.98%. The cumulative export volume was 1.758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 89.44% [56][61]. 3.6 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying is 0.23, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is characterized by over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the lithium carbonate market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost - side 6% concentrate CIF price has decreased daily and is lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern will shift to demand - led. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract will fluctuate in the range of 72,280 - 74,400 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in August 2025 was 85,240 physical tons, and next month's production is expected to be 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 74,486 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.22%, with a production income of 2,006 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 77,806 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.59%, with a production income of - 7,315 yuan/ton, also resulting in a loss. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average [8]. - **Basis**: On October 9th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 210 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 42,440 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.61%. The total inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Expected**: It is expected that the import volume of lithium carbonate next month will be 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74%. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract will fluctuate in the range of 72,280 - 74,400 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis**: Most of the futures closing prices showed an increase, with an increase range of 0.74% - 1.15%. The basis of most contracts decreased, with a decrease range of 72.00% - 119.30%. The registered warehouse receipts were 42,379 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% [14]. - **Upstream Price**: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 1.75% to 843 US dollars/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.08% to 1,835 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Price**: The prices of most positive materials and lithium batteries increased. For example, the price of 523 polycrystalline consumer - type positive materials increased by 2.81% to 87,725 yuan/ton, and the price of 523 single - crystal power - type ternary precursors increased by 2.14% to 81,100 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply**: The monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate have increased to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production increased by 17.74% to 311,670 tons, and the monthly import volume increased by 57.79% to 21,846.92 tons. However, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32% to 470,599 tons [17]. - **Demand**: The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh, and the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased. The production volume increased by 11.91% to 1,391,000 vehicles, and the sales volume increased by 10.54% to 1.395 million vehicles [17]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has changed. In August 2025, the balance was 2,695 tons, showing a surplus [17]. 3.4 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium ore in China have also changed. The production of spodumene mines in Chinese samples and the total domestic lepidolite production have shown different trends in different years [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and inventory of lithium carbonate have changed. The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the monthly import volume from Chile has increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate in different links has also changed [29][31]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and the monthly export volume has increased in some months [37]. 3.5 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The production of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate and lepidolite is in a loss state. The daily production profit of purchased spodumene concentrate is - 2,006 yuan/ton, and the daily production profit of purchased lepidolite is - 7,315 yuan/ton [8]. - The cost and profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from different types of black powder also vary. For example, the profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from purchased ternary battery black powder (Li: 3.0% - 3.5%) has fluctuated [44]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate in different links has changed. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 3.62% to 101,848 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary material sample enterprises increased by 2.00% to 17,896 tons [8]. 3.7 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed. The monthly production of power battery cells has increased, and the monthly loading volume of power batteries has also increased [53]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed. The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the production has increased in some months [58]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed. The price of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the weekly start - up rate has also changed [64]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium**: The price, cost, and production of phosphorus iron/phosphorus iron lithium have changed. The price of phosphorus iron/phosphorus iron lithium has fluctuated, and the monthly production of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium has also changed [69]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have increased. The production of new energy vehicles increased by 11.91% to 1,391,000 vehicles, and the sales volume increased by 10.54% to 1.395 million vehicles [17][77].

Core Viewpoint - As of October 9, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remains stable, while futures continue to fluctuate, indicating a cautious market outlook amid increasing supply and strong demand in both the power and energy storage sectors [1] Supply Summary - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 73,446 yuan/ton, down by 42 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 73,550 yuan/ton, and for industrial-grade lithium carbonate, it is 71,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous working day [1] - New production lines for spodumene and salt lake lithium are coming online, suggesting an increase in total lithium carbonate production in October [1] Demand Summary - The demand in the power market is driven by an increase in new energy vehicle sales, while the energy storage market is experiencing robust supply and demand [1] - Despite an increase in supply in October, strong demand from both the power and energy storage sectors is expected to lead to significant inventory reductions, potentially resulting in a temporary supply tightness [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a bottom. Although the supply pressure remains as the weekly production reached a record high last week, the demand growth is higher than the supply, leading to inventory reduction. It is expected that it is difficult for lithium carbonate to open a downward space in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures hit a bottom and then rebounded. The main contract dropped to a minimum of 72,360 during the session. All industrial products fell during the session, and lithium carbonate futures followed suit, but it turned positive first driven by downstream point - price purchases at low points. The spot electric carbon price remained flat at 73,850, and the spot still had a slight premium over the futures. The price of Australian ore remained flat at 832.5, and the price of lithium mica remained flat at 1,900. The production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 2,759, and the production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium mica remained flat at 8,521. Although salt plants are currently making losses, it does not affect their production enthusiasm [10]. 3.2. Industry News - On September 22, Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to the Comptroller General's Office (CGR) to approve the modification of the contract for the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA and the OMA mineral lease contract, extending the contract validity to 2030. It also submitted a new mineral lease contract for the Atacama Salt Lake with Codelco and its subsidiary Minera Tarar SpA, with a contract validity from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Field in northern Chile this year, marking the local's first large - scale entry into lithium production [13]. - Jiuzhou Hi - Tech (300631.SZ) announced that it signed a procurement contract worth 81.5 million yuan (including 13% VAT), with a tax - free amount of 72.1239 million yuan, with SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. for the "Membrane Treatment System Procurement" project of the expansion and renovation project for comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake. The signing of this contract is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future performance [13].

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate within the current range in the next one to two weeks. The supply - demand situation shows no significant changes, so the price is likely to remain volatile. Although the capacity utilization rate has increased, there is uncertainty in lithium mine复产, and the cost side remains stable. The demand side is supported by the positive data of the new - energy vehicle market, and the inventory is decreasing, but the decline is not large [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 22, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 540 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The basis was reported at - 120 yuan/ton, 540 yuan/ton stronger than on September 19. The main contract's open interest was 271,624 lots, a decrease of 9,640 lots compared to September 19, and the trading volume was 396,645 lots, an increase of 26,286 lots or 7.1% [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September 12 to 19, the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 6,390 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 66.41% to 71.31%, a rise of 4.9 percentage points. From September 1 - 14, the retail and wholesale data of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The prices of power ternary materials and power lithium iron phosphate increased slightly. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 138,512 physical tons to 137,531 physical tons, a decrease of 0.71% [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: From September 19 to 22, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 540 yuan/ton or 0.73%, the basis increased by 540 yuan/ton or 81.82%, the open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,640 lots or 3.43%, and the trading volume increased by 26,286 lots or 7.1%. The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The prices of power ternary materials and power lithium iron phosphate increased by 200 yuan/ton and 80 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On September 22, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,842 yuan/ton, up 308 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to rise in a volatile manner. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to fluctuate, and the main contract oscillated between 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. The market in September showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and a temporary supply shortage was expected [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 14, the national new - energy passenger vehicle market retail was 43.8 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 59.8%. The national new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale was 44.7 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 21%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 57.7% [7]. - **Industry News**: Multiple factors such as the tight supply of nickel sulfate, the expected change in the cobalt export policy in the DRC, and the unclear follow - up adjustment of domestic lithium mining policies have increased the uncertainty of the ternary material price trend. There were rumors of the restart of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine, but whether it can restart as scheduled is uncertain [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that domestic lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 102,000 tons by August 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 7.49%, setting a new historical high [1] - Current lithium carbonate inventory remains above 140,000 tons, but the available days have been decreasing over the past six months, leading to increased price elasticity [1] - Specific demand drivers include a month-on-month increase of 8% in lithium carbonate demand from lithium iron phosphate, significant growth in energy storage demand estimated at 40%-50% for 2026, and a 12% increase in demand from ternary materials due to downstream replenishment [1] Group 2 - The market atmosphere indicates a rapid increase in warehouse receipts, with the virtual-to-real ratio returning to a low level, suggesting significant resistance to upward price breakthroughs unless explosive news arises [3] - Potential short-selling opportunities include the production ramp-up of major salt lake projects and the possibility that reductions in Jiangxi may not meet expectations, likely leading to an increase in domestic lithium carbonate production [3] - Overall, before the National Day holiday, the market is expected to continue a tug-of-war between strong realities and weak expectations, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating around 70,000 yuan [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Increase at Peak Season, Lithium Price May Be Supported" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with industrial inventory depletion and positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position and control risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the carbonate lithium main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change rate of - 3.78% and an amplitude of 8.16%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 74,260 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro Situation**: China's economic prosperity level continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the raw material side, there is still uncertainty in domestic mining area supply, and overseas miners still have the sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell. Due to the continuous weakening of the carbonate lithium spot, the lithium ore quotation has been adjusted. In terms of supply, new production lines of domestic smelters have been put into operation, and the production enthusiasm has increased, so the domestic supply is expected to increase. In terms of demand, it is currently the traditional peak consumption season, and downstream material factories have purchasing needs. The recent decline in lithium prices may strengthen the trading sentiment in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the inventory of upstream smelters has continued to decline, and the inventory of downstream has increased, with the overall inventory showing a slight decline [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 74,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,920 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 460 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 74,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,900 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 490 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Spodumene**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 922 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of US dollars against the RMB was 7.1402, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02% [20]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The average price of amblygonite was 7,125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 525 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77%, and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. As of August 2025, the monthly output of carbonate lithium was 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons from July, an increase of 2.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.09%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31]. 3.5 Downstream Market - **Demand Side**: - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price was 56,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 yuan/ton. As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94%, and a year - on - year increase of 44.16% [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price was 34,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials continued to weaken [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price was 32,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price was 230,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton [49]. - **Application Side**: - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of July 2025, the penetration rate was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly output was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%; the sales volume was 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [51][56]. 3.6 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.28, with a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of the option at - the - money contract and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on an increase in volatility [59].