交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨 环比增长0 75% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， 。 . , | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为101848吨 环比增加3 62% 上周三元材 ， . , | | | | | | | 料样本企业库存为17896吨 | 环比增加2 00% ， 。 . | | | | | | 基本面: | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为74486元/吨 日环比减少1 22% ...

【10月9日碳酸锂现货价格暂时持稳，期货延续震荡】10月9日，电池级碳酸锂指数价格73446元/吨，环 比降42元/吨；电池级碳酸锂均价7.355万元/吨，工业级碳酸锂均价7.13万元/吨，均与上一工作日持平。 碳酸锂期货主力合约在7.26 - 7.53万元/吨震荡，节后首日市场成交清淡，上下游观望。供应上，锂辉石 和盐湖端有新产线投产，10月碳酸锂总产量或增长。需求端，动力市场新能源车商乘用齐增，储能市场 供需两旺。总体而言，10月供应虽增，但动力与储能需求强，市场将大幅去库，或现阶段性供应偏紧。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a bottom. Although the supply pressure remains as the weekly production reached a record high last week, the demand growth is higher than the supply, leading to inventory reduction. It is expected that it is difficult for lithium carbonate to open a downward space in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures hit a bottom and then rebounded. The main contract dropped to a minimum of 72,360 during the session. All industrial products fell during the session, and lithium carbonate futures followed suit, but it turned positive first driven by downstream point - price purchases at low points. The spot electric carbon price remained flat at 73,850, and the spot still had a slight premium over the futures. The price of Australian ore remained flat at 832.5, and the price of lithium mica remained flat at 1,900. The production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 2,759, and the production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium mica remained flat at 8,521. Although salt plants are currently making losses, it does not affect their production enthusiasm [10]. 3.2. Industry News - On September 22, Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to the Comptroller General's Office (CGR) to approve the modification of the contract for the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA and the OMA mineral lease contract, extending the contract validity to 2030. It also submitted a new mineral lease contract for the Atacama Salt Lake with Codelco and its subsidiary Minera Tarar SpA, with a contract validity from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Field in northern Chile this year, marking the local's first large - scale entry into lithium production [13]. - Jiuzhou Hi - Tech (300631.SZ) announced that it signed a procurement contract worth 81.5 million yuan (including 13% VAT), with a tax - free amount of 72.1239 million yuan, with SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. for the "Membrane Treatment System Procurement" project of the expansion and renovation project for comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake. The signing of this contract is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future performance [13].

供需缺乏明显矛盾，碳酸锂后市仍需关注锂矿进展 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：9月22日碳酸锂主力合约价格收73420元/吨，小幅回落 540元/吨，下跌0.73%。基差报-120元/吨，较9月19日走强540元/吨。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量为271624手，较9月19日减少9640手；主力合 约成交量为396645手，较9月19日扩大26286手，变化率为7.1%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：锂辉石精矿和锂云母精矿市场价在9月19-22日维持稳定，分别为 6390元/吨和3400元/吨。碳酸锂产能利用率从9月12日的66.41%提升至9月 19日的71.31%，提升了4.9个百分点。 需求端：9月1-14日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售和批发数据同比和环比均 有增长，零售43.8万辆，同比增长6%，较上月同期增长10%；批发44.7万 辆，同比增长10%，较上月同期增长21%。动力型三元材料和动力型磷酸铁 锂价格在9月19 - 22日有小幅上扬，分别上涨200元/吨和80元/吨。下游电 芯价格部分有小幅度上涨。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂库存从9月12日的138512实物吨降至 ...

本文来源：鑫椤锂电 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库统计， 2025年8月份国内碳酸锂总需求量达到10.2万吨，环比增长7.49%，再创历史新高。 虽然目前碳酸锂库存仍在14万吨之上，但近半年来可用天数持续下降，价格弹性随之增强。 从具体需求看， 磷酸铁锂对碳酸锂需求环比增幅达到 8%，储能方面拉动明显，2026年储能需求增幅保守估计 40%-50%；三元材料受下游补库带动，8月份对碳酸锂需求环比增幅高达12%；钴酸锂随着3C数码进入"金 九银十"旺季，对碳酸锂需求环比增幅也达到7%左右，有迹象表面，数码采用锰酸锂的情况也在逐渐增多。 不过，从当前市场氛围来看，近期仓单增长较快，虚实盘比基本又回到了低位，如果没有一些爆炸性的消息（比如 9.30后几个锂云母矿是否停产）， 短期行情向上突破的阻力较大。 本文作者：钱先生/13621911373 会议详情： END 而且，空头可炒作的也并不少，比如9月紫金（3Q）、盐湖股份两大盐湖项目开始投产爬坡、江西减产可能不及预期， 国内碳酸锂产量大概率将同步增长。 总体来看， 在国庆节之前， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Increase at Peak Season, Lithium Price May Be Supported" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of carbonate lithium may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with industrial inventory depletion and positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position and control risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the carbonate lithium main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change rate of - 3.78% and an amplitude of 8.16%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 74,260 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro Situation**: China's economic prosperity level continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the raw material side, there is still uncertainty in domestic mining area supply, and overseas miners still have the sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell. Due to the continuous weakening of the carbonate lithium spot, the lithium ore quotation has been adjusted. In terms of supply, new production lines of domestic smelters have been put into operation, and the production enthusiasm has increased, so the domestic supply is expected to increase. In terms of demand, it is currently the traditional peak consumption season, and downstream material factories have purchasing needs. The recent decline in lithium prices may strengthen the trading sentiment in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the inventory of upstream smelters has continued to decline, and the inventory of downstream has increased, with the overall inventory showing a slight decline [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 74,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,920 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 460 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 74,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,900 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 490 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Spodumene**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 922 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of US dollars against the RMB was 7.1402, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02% [20]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The average price of amblygonite was 7,125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 525 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77%, and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. As of August 2025, the monthly output of carbonate lithium was 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons from July, an increase of 2.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.09%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31]. 3.5 Downstream Market - **Demand Side**: - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: As of September 5, 2025, the average price was 56,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 yuan/ton. As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94%, and a year - on - year increase of 44.16% [34]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price was 34,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials continued to weaken [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price was 32,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price was 230,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton [49]. - **Application Side**: - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of July 2025, the penetration rate was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly output was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%; the sales volume was 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [51][56]. 3.6 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.28, with a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of the option at - the - money contract and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on an increase in volatility [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - On August 27, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 78,860 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous trading day, with short - term directional divergence. The basis was 2,640 yuan/ton, a slight weakening of 40 yuan compared to the previous day, and the basis center in the past week showed a downward trend, indicating that the downward pressure on the spot price was transmitted to the futures market [1]. - The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 0.52% to 351,000 lots, while the trading volume significantly rebounded by 30.4% to 729,000 lots, indicating intensified short - term capital games and fierce competition between long and short sides around key price levels [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, reaching 66.41% in the week of August 22. The accelerated release of lithium production from salt lakes partially offset the impact of the suspension of lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi. However, potential supply disruptions due to the re - application for mining licenses by Jiangxi mines before the end of September should be noted [2]. - Demand side: Downstream demand was divided. According to the Passenger Car Association, the year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle retail and wholesale in August were 9% and 18% respectively, indicating demand resilience. However, the cathode material market was weak, with the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropping for four consecutive weeks to 35,590 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remaining stable, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remaining flat for three consecutive weeks. Mid - stream procurement became more cautious, and the stocking demand weakened [2]. - Inventory and warrants: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 713 tons to 141,500 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level in the past five weeks [2] c. Market Summary - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased from 79,020 yuan/ton to 78,860 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%. The basis decreased from 2,680 yuan/ton to 2,640 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1.49%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.52% to 351,322 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly by 30.39% to 729,645 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24% to 81,500 yuan/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% to 35,590 yuan/ton, while the prices of ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 63.92% to 66.41%, an increase of 3.9%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.5% to 141,543 tons. The prices of some battery cells showed small fluctuations, with the cobalt - acid lithium cell price increasing by 3.6% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotes - On August 27, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,300 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to pre - stocking by some downstream material factories, the procurement scale this week was smaller than last week. The current downstream procurement attitude is cautious, and they are waiting for further price drops. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downstream demand has certain rigid support, and the short - term spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain relatively high and continue to fluctuate within a range [6] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 - 17, the retail volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 58.0%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] c. Industry News - Since the official suspension of the Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiawo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and transformation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of Xinjiang Guotou Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan. This project will help the company improve its market share and technical control ability in the salt lake lithium extraction industry [9]. - On August 15, the Jianxiawo mining area of Ningde Times stopped production due to the expiration of the mining license. Eight local mines in Yichun need to re - apply for mining licenses before September 30 this year [9] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - Market data analysis: The main contract price decreased slightly, the basis weakened, the open interest increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly, indicating intensified market competition between long and short sides [30]. - Industry chain analysis: On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate increased, but the suspension of the Yichun mining area may cause supply shortages, which may be partially offset by new salt lake lithium extraction projects. On the demand side, new energy vehicle sales increased, but the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, indicating more cautious downstream procurement. The inventory decreased slightly, which may support the price [30][31][32]. - Price trend judgment: In the next one to two weeks, the market may maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The pressure comes from increased supply and demand hesitation, but the inventory decline may limit the decline [32]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the lithium carbonate market, particularly focusing on the impact of the shutdown of the Jianxiawo mining area on supply and demand dynamics in the lithium carbonate industry [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo mining area has resulted in a supply shortage of over 6,000 tons of lithium carbonate in August, leading to a significant decrease in inventory levels. Despite an increase in imports in September and October, it is unlikely to fill the supply gap, which may cause lithium carbonate prices to rebound to around 90,000 yuan per ton in the short term [1][3]. - If the Jianxiawo and other mica mines remain shut down after September 2025, the total supply of lithium carbonate for 2025 is expected to drop to 1.53 million tons, exacerbating supply tightness [1][3]. - For 2026, if the Ningde and other mica mines are assumed to be shut down for six months, the total supply could reach 1.8 million tons, with a potential increase to 1.85 million tons if Ningde resumes production mid-year. The additional supply will primarily come from South American salt lakes, African mines, and domestic salt lakes [1][3]. - Despite the anticipated increase in supply in 2026, the excess supply is expected to widen to 200,000 to 300,000 tons, indicating that a market reversal is not imminent and will require a longer period of active clearing under profit pressure [1][5]. Demand Side Changes - Recent demand-side changes have exceeded expectations, particularly after the resumption of production at the end of Q1 2025. A significant cost reduction was observed in Q2, leading to a decline in lithium prices until late June. However, following regulatory notifications and production halts in July, market sentiment shifted, resulting in a 10%-15% increase in demand-side production scheduling [4][5]. Future Demand and Supply Predictions - Global demand for power batteries is projected to grow at 18% in 2026, while energy storage batteries are expected to grow at 25%, leading to a combined growth rate of nearly 20%. The demand for lithium carbonate is forecasted to increase by 13% [5]. - Even with improved supply dynamics in 2026, if mica mines continue to be shut down until the end of the year, the excess supply could still expand to 200,000 to 300,000 tons, indicating that a market reversal is not expected until 2027 or later [5]. Investment Opportunities - In the current environment of domestic mining regulatory compliance risks, the focus is on leading companies with high-quality overseas resources, specifically Tianqi, Ganfeng, Zhongmin, and Shengxin. Tianqi has the lowest self-supply cost, followed by Ganfeng, while Zhongmin and Shengxin also show strong competitiveness [2][6]. - Shengxin is noted for having the highest profit elasticity, with Tianqi and Ganfeng following. If Shengxin's molybdenum project is launched in 2028, its total cost could be as low as 50,000 yuan per ton [6][7].

Supply Side - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2,120 tons week-on-week to 20,358 tons, with July production up 5.8% to 85,690 tons[4] - The shutdown of the Ningde Jianshan Mine for three months and the review of mining rights in Yichun and Qinghai are impacting supply[4] - In June 2025, China's lithium ore imports decreased by 4.8% to 576,000 tons, with imports from Australia down 31% to approximately 256,000 tons[4] Cost and Pricing - The CIF price of imported spodumene concentrate rose week-on-week, leading to cost pressures for some lithium carbonate producers[4] - Lithium hydroxide manufacturers are facing significant cost pressures, while self-owned mines and salt lake enterprises have some profit support[4] Demand Side - Overall production in August increased by 7% for large battery manufacturers, with total battery production in June reaching 129.2 GWh, up 4.6% month-on-month and 51.4% year-on-year[5] - The introduction of vehicle replacement policies and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support rapid growth in China's new energy vehicle market[5] Inventory and Market Outlook - Lithium carbonate inventory increased by 465 tons at factories, 1,171 tons in the market, and 12,224 tons in futures[5] - The recent production cuts at the mining level and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers suggest that lithium carbonate prices will continue to show strong fluctuations[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate futures prices have fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 68,900 yuan/ton on August 1, reflecting a weekly decline of 5.85% [1] - The domestic lithium carbonate production in July exceeded 80,000 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 4%, primarily due to significant recovery in spodumene production and the release of recycling capacity [3] - Demand for lithium carbonate is under pressure, with retail sales of new energy vehicles in July declining by 17% month-on-month, and the prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showing slight decreases [3] Group 2 - The market outlook suggests that lithium carbonate prices are likely to remain weak in the short term, with a focus on the production changes of mica and salt lake resources, which could influence price movements [3] - Current market conditions indicate high supply and inventory levels for lithium carbonate, with limited support for prices due to declining demand growth [4] - The potential for price increases in the future may depend on the implementation of anti-involution policies, resource clearing in the upstream sector, and the resolution of price wars within the industry [4]