Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in alumina futures prices, which have dropped below 2500 yuan/ton, raise questions about potential turning points in the market as prices rebounded last Friday [1]. Group 1: Production and Supply - In November, domestic bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.6% month-on-month and a 5.3% year-on-year decline; cumulative production from January to November reached 55.213 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year [1]. - The total production of metallurgical-grade alumina in November was 7.4394 million tons, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 1.4% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November was 81.897 million tons, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year [2]. - As of last Thursday, the total capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina remained at 11.032 million tons/year, with operational capacity at 8.7832 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate slightly increased by 0.15 percentage points to 79.62% [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - The alumina price index reported 2804.9 yuan/ton last Thursday, a decrease of 16.48 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a premium of 300 yuan/ton over the futures settlement price [3]. - Domestic alumina total inventory reached 5.061 million tons, continuing to rise, while electrolytic aluminum plants held 3.516 million tons of alumina inventory, indicating relatively sufficient raw material reserves [2]. Group 3: Import and Inventory Trends - In October, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a month-on-month decrease of 13.3% but a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; cumulative imports from January to October reached 170.96 million tons, up 30% year-on-year, with Guinea accounting for 74% of imports [1]. - As of last weekend, domestic bauxite port inventory was 26.4354 million tons, a significant decrease of 1.475 million tons from the previous week [1].