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累库趋势难改,期价维持弱势震荡
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 14:13
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of supply - side contraction policies for alumina still needs observation. Given the low proportion of backward capacity and new production coming online this year, the over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. With the ebb of short - term commodity buying sentiment and the alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to warrant registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of August 8, the alumina index had risen 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. In mid - and early July, the expectation of supply - side contraction policies, a strong commodity buying atmosphere, and low warrant registration volumes drove the futures price up. As sentiment faded and the spot market loosened, the price dropped due to the oversupply situation [12][23]. - **Spot Price**: In July, the "anti - involution" policy expectation led to a sharp increase in alumina spot prices. As of August 8, 2025, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 3325 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, 3225 yuan/ton, 3215 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton, and 3520 yuan/ton respectively, up 155 yuan/ton, 145 yuan/ton, 135 yuan/ton, 125 yuan/ton, 165 yuan/ton, and 180 yuan/ton from early July [12][20]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory had increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [12][75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply - side contraction policy implementation needs further observation. The over - capacity pattern of alumina may persist. With the ebb of short - term buying sentiment and the alleviation of spot shortages, short positions on rallies are recommended. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Futures and Spot End - **Futures Price**: As of August 8, the alumina index rose 7.1% since June 30 to 3182 yuan/ton. The early - July price increase was driven by policy expectations and low warrant registration, while the subsequent decline was due to the return to the fundamental logic of oversupply [23]. - **Basis**: The basis decreased significantly this month and then gradually recovered. As of August 8, the Shandong spot price was at a premium of 45 yuan/ton over the alumina main contract price [23]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts first rose and then fell. As of August 8, it was - 12 yuan/ton [23]. 3. Raw Material End - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite prices remained flat this month. As of August 8, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 74 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian bauxite was 69 US dollars/ton. Due to the impact of the rainy season and previous bans on Guinea's shipments, the arrival volume of imported ores is expected to decline, and ore prices are expected to be supported in the short term [29]. - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 519 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 3039 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.29%. In June, bauxite imports were 1812 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.86% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 10340 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.68% [31][33]. - **Guinea Bauxite Import**: In June 2025, China imported 1332 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 40.18% and a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 7967 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.49%. Recent low shipments from Guinea may lead to a decline in imports after June, but the annual supply remains in surplus [36]. - **Bauxite Supply - Demand Balance**: Based on shipping schedules and seasonal shipments from Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to tighten in July and experience significant inventory reduction in September and October. If the AXIS mining area does not resume production this year, China's bauxite import growth is expected to decline from 4000 tons to 2000 tons. However, due to the large surplus in the first five months and sufficient inventories in most alumina plants, the basic production of alumina enterprises is not expected to be significantly affected [37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the global bauxite floating inventory reached a new low of 1455 tons. China's bauxite port inventory was 2819 tons, and the inventory accumulation trend slowed down. With the expected decline in ore arrivals, port inventories are expected to decrease [40]. 4. Supply End - **Alumina Production**: In June 2025, alumina production was 733 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34% and a month - on - month increase of 3.14%. The cumulative production in the first six months was 4349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.01% [47]. - **Operating Capacity**: In June 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 9000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.36% and a month - on - month increase of 6.38%. The recovery of smelting profits led to the resumption of previously shut - down capacity [50]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, the total new alumina production capacity is expected to be 1430 tons. Some projects have been put into production and are gradually releasing output, while the fourth - quarter new production has uncertainties [51][52]. - **Smelting Profit**: Based on the August 8 spot price, the production profit in Guangxi can reach 570 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the profit using Australian and Guinea ores is 395 yuan/ton and 440 yuan/ton respectively. The profit in Shanxi and Henan using Guinea ore is 185 yuan/ton and 235 yuan/ton respectively [54]. 5. Import and Export - **Alumina Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, alumina had a net export of 6.97 tons, maintaining a net export status. The import volume increased from 6.75 tons in the previous month to 10.13 tons, and the export volume decreased from 20.78 tons to 17.1 tons. The cumulative net export in the first six months was 107.5 tons. A small net export is expected to become the norm [58]. - **Import Window**: As of August 8, the FOB price of Australian alumina rose 13 US dollars/ton to 374 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 72 yuan/ton. The import window remained closed [61]. 6. Demand End - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 377.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% and a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. The cumulative production in the first seven months was 2560 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [66]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Utilization Rate**: In July 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4419 tons, an increase of 16 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.55% month - on - month to 97.24% [69]. 7. Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of August 8, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 28.5 tons to 414.4 million tons. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 11.8 tons, 3 tons, 10.5 tons, and 3.2 tons respectively [75]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41 tons to 2.62 tons compared to early July, and the delivery inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.98 tons to 8.5 tons. As the spot market loosens, the registration volume of warehouse receipts is expected to increase [77].
氧化铝:供需仍偏宽松&下方存支撑,期价或震荡为主
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-23 11:57
Group 1: Alumina Price Trends - Alumina prices experienced a slight rebound in May due to increased maintenance and production cuts among companies facing losses, alongside disruptions from revoked mining licenses in Guinea. However, the overall supply remained loose, leading to a decline in prices, with the alumina weighted index falling to around 2820 yuan/ton in mid-June, still above the absolute low of late April [1] - As of June, the average production cost of alumina hovered around 2840 yuan/ton, with cash costs at approximately 2630 yuan/ton. The average profitability for alumina companies remained positive, particularly in Henan and Shandong, where theoretical profits were around 300 yuan/ton [4] Group 2: Bauxite Supply and Production - In May, China's bauxite production reached 5.3664 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.96%. However, production in June may be impacted by environmental inspections [2] - Bauxite imports in May totaled 17.5145 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.3% but a year-on-year increase of 29.4%. Cumulatively, imports for the first five months reached 85.176 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%, with Guinea accounting for approximately 77.8% of imports [2] Group 3: Electrolytic Aluminum Production - The production capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in May slightly increased by 0.26% to 96.99%, with theoretical production profits reaching 4000 yuan/ton. The production remained stable, with no significant hindrances expected in the short term [5][6] - In May, the national electrolytic aluminum output was 3.828 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.97% and a year-on-year increase of 5% [5] Group 4: Inventory and Export Dynamics - As of June 20, the total inventory of alumina in delivery warehouses decreased to 90,295 tons, with registered warehouse receipts below 50,000 tons, indicating a low inventory level. The total alumina inventory at ports was around 3.84 million tons, with electrolytic aluminum plants holding approximately 2.826 million tons [7] - In May, China maintained a net export status for alumina, with exports of 20.78 thousand tons and imports of 6.75 thousand tons, resulting in a net export of 14.03 thousand tons, a decrease compared to April [7][8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The overall supply of bauxite is expected to remain loose in the short term, with stable bauxite prices. However, the lack of recovery from the Axis mine in Guinea and the impending rainy season may tighten supply in the medium term. Alumina production profits are recovering, and new projects are steadily increasing, although some production cuts are still present [8] - The demand for alumina remains stable due to good profitability in the downstream electrolytic aluminum sector, with high operating capacity. The low inventory levels may provide some support for prices, but the overall market is likely to experience fluctuations without significant upward movement [8]
供应端复产继续,氧化铝承压震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the alumina spot market has tight supply, and the continuous decline in warehouse receipt inventory supports the near - term prices, making them relatively resistant to decline. However, as alumina复产 progresses, the expectation of increased future supply is growing, and the support for near - term prices will gradually weaken. The near - term prices are expected to decline to find a reasonable range. Considering the firm bauxite prices due to Guinea's bauxite supply, the cost support is good, and the downward space is expected to be limited [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/13 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2901 | 2852 | - 49 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3306 | 3287 | - 19 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 279 | 287 | 8 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 363 | 363 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 85.69 | 44.27 | - 41.4 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 92468 | 80143 | - 12325 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 300 | 300 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 75 | 74.5 | - 0.5 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 1.69% last week, closing at 2852 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 3287 Yuan/ton, down 19 Yuan/ton from the previous week. - For bauxite, domestic bauxite supply remains tight. With strong profit recovery expectations for alumina, the procurement of bauxite is cautious, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions, and the price center of domestic bauxite has slightly declined. For imported bauxite, factors such as shipping schedules from Guinea have made enterprises cautious about spot procurement. Sellers still have a certain attitude of holding up prices due to the upcoming rainy season in Guinea, and the price game between supply and demand continues. - On the supply side, some alumina enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, increasing the alumina supply. However, the supply in some regions is still tight, and it is difficult to pick up goods. As of June 12, China's alumina installed capacity was 112.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.05 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.34%. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guizhou have plans to resume production, and those in Yunnan may also release new production capacity. It is expected that the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly next week. - In terms of inventory, last Friday, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12325 tons to 80,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons [4]. Market Outlook - The bauxite supply was basically stable last week. Attention should continue to be paid to the impact of the political situation in Guinea and the rainy season on imported bauxite. On the supply side, some alumina enterprises are promoting the resumption of production, and the operating capacity of alumina has increased. However, after a long - term operation at a low capacity, the spot supply in some regions is slightly tight, and the overall supply pressure has not been clearly shown. The market spot price remains relatively firm. On the consumption side, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, but there is a relatively bearish view on the alumina price, and procurement is cautious. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 12325 tons last week to 80,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons. Overall, the current alumina spot market has tight supply, and the continuous decline in warehouse receipt inventory affects the market, making the near - term prices relatively resistant to decline. But as alumina production resumes, the expectation of increased future supply is growing, and the support for near - term prices will gradually weaken. The near - term prices are expected to decline to find a reasonable range. Considering the firm bauxite prices due to Guinea's bauxite supply, the cost support is good, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. Industry News - Ambassador Yang Renhuo of China to Guinea - Bissau attended the commencement ceremony of the bauxite exploration project of Chinalco in the Boé region of Gabu Province. - A public notice was issued for the new establishment of the mining right for the Xiaozaozhuang block bauxite mine in Zhongyang County, Shanxi Province. The mining right holder is Ningbo Kunye Trading Co., Ltd. The public notice period is from June 9, 2025, to June 20, 2025 [7]. Related Charts The report provides charts including alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [8][9][11].
【期货热点追踪】进口同比大增42.2%!几内亚铝土矿停产或推动氧化铝价格持续上涨?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-21 01:46
Core Viewpoint - The suspension of operations at the Guinea Axis mine is significantly impacting alumina prices, with domestic alumina contracts rising by 1.55% to 3138 yuan/ton due to supply concerns from Guinea, which is China's largest bauxite import source [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea remains the largest source of bauxite imports for China, with imports increasing to 67.77 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [1]. - The Guinea Axis mine, with an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, has been ordered to halt operations, affecting an estimated 2.3 million tons of production in 2024 [2]. - The suspension of the Axis mine could shift the alumina supply-demand balance from surplus to shortage if the halt continues, as Guinea's bauxite shipment volume was previously expected to increase by 25 to 28 million tons [2]. Group 2: Domestic Production and Market Conditions - Domestic alumina production from January to April 2025 reached 28.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, although April's production saw a month-on-month decline of 11.3% [3]. - The total operational capacity for alumina in China decreased to 84.12 million tons per year, with a weekly operating rate down by 2.66 percentage points to 77.02% [3]. - Recent production cuts due to maintenance have tightened the spot market for alumina, leading to a rebound in spot prices as production costs decrease with falling bauxite prices [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the short-term price increase for alumina may be limited, as there is a high probability that mining companies will reach agreements with the Guinea government, potentially mitigating long-term supply concerns [4]. - The market sentiment is currently influenced by the supply disruptions from Guinea, with expectations of strong fluctuations in alumina prices due to ongoing negotiations and potential recovery timelines for the affected mines [5][7]. - The recent withdrawal of mining licenses by the Guinea government has raised concerns about the duration and scale of supply disruptions, which could lead to significant changes in the alumina market dynamics [8][9].
几内亚收回EGA采矿权消息推动氧化铝触及涨停,上方还有多少空间?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-19 04:03
Group 1 - The main contract for alumina opened slightly lower but remained stable above the 3000 mark, with a significant increase observed in the previous night session [2] - Guinea's government has revoked mining licenses for 46 companies, signaling a warning to large mining operators, although these companies are not major producers in Guinea's mining sector [2][3] - The Axis mining area has been ordered to halt operations, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, with the recovery timeline currently unknown [3] Group 2 - Guinea exported approximately 146.4 million tons of bauxite last year, with expectations to exceed 200 million tons this year, representing a 35% increase from the previous record [3] - Domestic alumina production is expected to increase to 86.96 million tons in May, with a production volume of 7.35 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% and a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [4] - The alumina operating rate has decreased by 2.66% to 77.02%, with maintenance activities reported in several regions [4] Group 3 - Recent data indicates a weekly decrease in alumina inventory by 36,900 tons, while social inventory has increased slightly [5] - Analysts suggest that the recent revocation of mining licenses and production cuts may lead to a potential upward trend in alumina prices, despite the risk of oversupply due to increased imports [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain a strong price trend for alumina in the short term, with prices projected to range between 2850 and 3050 yuan per ton [7][8]