1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to oscillate, with strong resistance at 3,200 yuan/ton and potential support around 3,000 yuan/ton. It's advised to take profits on long positions near the resistance level and be cautious about short - selling [143][144][147]. - The Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) is expected to oscillate in the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with the current industrial fundamentals providing support, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [144][147]. - The aluminum alloy price is expected to oscillate under the support of cost and the suppression of weak demand [144][147]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Macro - economic data**: In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.4%), and in June, industrial added value grew 6.8% year - on - year (previous value: 5.8%), while retail sales grew 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 6.4%). From January to June, fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year (previous value: 3.7%), real estate investment decreased 11.2% year - on - year (previous value: - 10.7%), and broad infrastructure investment grew 8.9% year - on - year (previous value: 10.4%), and manufacturing investment grew 7.5% year - on - year (previous value: 8.5%). In the US, overall retail sales in June increased 0.6% month - on - month, far exceeding the expected 0.1% [8]. - **Important news**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises, but these were long - idle mining rights [8]. - **Spot market**: As of July 18, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,185.06 yuan/ton, up 42.67 yuan/ton from July 11. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 20,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from July 11 [11]. - **Supply side**: As of July 17, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 80.74%, up 0.82% from the previous week. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [11]. - **Demand side**: As of July 17, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.8%, up 0.2% from the previous week, driven by a slight rebound in the operating rates of the aluminum profile and aluminum cable sectors [11]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,838 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit expanded to about 337 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,615 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit narrowed to about 3,954 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory side**: As of July 17, the aluminum ingot inventory was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from July 10, with de - stocking during the week after unexpected inventory accumulation on Monday. The aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from July 10. As of July 18, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 66,548 tons, an increase of 14,568 tons from July 11. From July 11 to July 17, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 26,925 tons to 427,200 tons [12]. - **Overall market trend**: This week, alumina oscillated strongly, SHFE Aluminum oscillated weakly, and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly [15]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: As of July 18, the domestic alumina spot price continued to rise, and the spot was still tight with strong price - holding sentiment in the market [28]. - **Supply**: As of July 17, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 80.74%, up 0.82% from the previous week. There were both production cuts and restarts in the alumina supply side. In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, and the cumulative production from January to June was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [32]. - **Import and export**: As of July 17, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The import profit window for alumina was gradually opening [34]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,838 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit expanded to about 337 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the alumina port inventory was 21,000 tons, down 5,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 4 - year low. In June 2025, China's alumina exports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [43]. - **Futures inventory**: The alumina futures inventory has gradually recovered from a low level but is still at a relatively low historical level [51]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost side**: As of July 18, coal prices in major regions increased, and the single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/degree. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas remained stable during the week [55][58]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,615 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from July 11, mainly due to the increase in alumina prices. The industry average profit narrowed to about 3,954 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply side**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level [64]. - **Spot**: As of July 18, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 20,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from July 11 [67]. - **Aluminum price trend and premium/discount**: LME Aluminum oscillated strongly during the week with a spot discount, and the SHFE Aluminum main contract oscillated strongly with a spot discount in the spot market [72][74]. - **Demand side**: As of July 17, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.8%, up 0.2% from the previous week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, below the boom - bust line, and the off - season effect of demand deepened [76]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the aluminum ingot inventory was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from July 10, with de - stocking during the week. The aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from July 10. In June, the industry's aluminum - to - liquid ratio was 75.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [84]. - **Futures inventory**: As of July 18, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 66,548 tons, an increase of 14,568 tons from July 11. From July 11 to July 17, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 26,925 tons to 427,200 tons [87]. - **Import and export**: The import profit window for aluminum ingots was closed. In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [90][93]. - **Terminal demand**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the performance of new - energy vehicles is relatively bright. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 26% [95][98]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw materials**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight during the off - season, and the price is high. The cost of aluminum alloy has continued to rise, and the loss has expanded [102][104]. - **ADC12**: The cost and profit of ADC12 are affected by factors such as scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper costs. The spot price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and the overseas ADC12 price and import profit also have corresponding changes [109][111][114]. - **Supply**: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy have their own characteristics. In June, the production of aluminum alloy increased month - on - month [116][117]. - **Demand**: The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [120][123]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloy includes social inventory and factory inventory, and the current inventory situation has an impact on the market [132]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [137]. 3.5 Future Outlook - **Macro - level**: The "anti - involution" policy continues to affect industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles, and there is also a game space in the market before and after the overseas tariff policy window period. The non - ferrous metal sector led by copper and aluminum still maintains high volatility [142]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to oscillate, with strong resistance at 3,200 yuan/ton and potential support around 3,000 yuan/ton. It's advised to take profits on long positions near the resistance level and be cautious about short - selling [143]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to oscillate in the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with the current industrial fundamentals providing support, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [144]. - **Aluminum alloy**: It is expected to oscillate under the support of cost and the suppression of weak demand [144].