1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase, with slightly improved supply - demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances to copper prices. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged, and the adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is under pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mining and smelting ends. The smelting cost will support zinc prices. The demand is relatively stable, and there is a possibility of opening up the export space. The zinc price has limited room for further significant decline, and the main contract is supported around 23,000 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated, and the downstream consumption is gradually recovering. With the improvement of market risk preference, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long positions, and subsequent attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon price has a negative impact. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of trying long at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. The price may fall towards the minimum cash cost, and it is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long after the price stabilizes and pay attention to position control and stop - loss [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices. The electrolytic aluminum price has strong anti - decline attributes, and the short - term core operating range is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The Indonesian policy, macro - expectations, and raw material contradictions support the price, but the slow inventory digestion restricts it. The nickel price is expected to oscillate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to operate in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, following the fluctuation of electrolytic aluminum [16]. Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw material shortages. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply disturbance expectations are repeated, the short - term marginal driving force of the fundamentals is weakened but still has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range, and the main contract is expected to be between 153,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%. The import volume was 15.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.95% [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.99%. The import volume was 0.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81.26% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The SMM 1 tin premium is 2,000 yuan/ton [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is - 510 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In February, the tin ore import was 17,144 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.91% [8]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.54%. The basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 10.42% from the previous day [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 8,352 yuan/ton, down 1.47% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in March was 32.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.66%. The Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 20.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.94% [10]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, down 1.91% from the previous day. The N - type material basis is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 22.22% from the previous day [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, down 3.69% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in February was 7.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.61%. The import volume was 0.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.97% [12]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 100 yuan/ton [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The AL 2604 - 2605 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In March, the alumina production was 729.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.56%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 383.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.73% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, down 21.05% from the previous day [14]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 2,700 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in February was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45%. The import volume was 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.63% [14]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Jiangxi Baotai network ADC12 - A00 spread is - 410 yuan/ton, down 24.24% from the previous day [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 35.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 20.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99% [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 410 yuan/ton, up 64.00% from the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 105 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in April was 190.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.07%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 37.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.84% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 163,000 yuan/ton, down 0.91% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate basis is 5,800 yuan/ton, up 181.46% from the previous day [21]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2604 - 2605 spread is 840 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The demand was 111,503 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bullish [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The issue in the Middle East is tending to ease, but the reduction of electrolytic aluminium production in the Middle East has actually occurred, and there is still a possibility of further production cuts. Overseas consumption has not been substantially affected, and domestic aluminium rod and alloy inventories are declining, laying the foundation for future aluminium ingot destocking. The long - term outlook for fundamentals and macro - expectations remains optimistic [6]. - The export limit policy of bauxite in Guinea is yet to be clearly introduced. Although it is not clear whether it will cause a supply shortage, the policy - oriented price limit strengthens the support for alumina prices. The alumina supply - demand situation remains in surplus, and the price fluctuates with crude oil prices in the short term and will shift upward in the long term due to raw material disturbances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminium is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 100 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminium is 24,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminium is 24,520 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminium spot premium/discount changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On March 31, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,585 yuan/ton, closed at 24,875 yuan/ton, with a change of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,905 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,580 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 357,773 lots, and the holding volume was 258,839 lots [2]. Aluminium Inventory - As of March 31, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 1.373 million tons, with a change of 24,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 416,607 tons, with a change of 4,155 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 416,775 tons, with a change of - 1,900 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 31, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,805 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,810 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,810 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 315 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 31, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,931 yuan/ton, closed at 2,827 yuan/ton, with a change of - 102 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 3.48%. The highest price reached 2,941 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 399,634 lots, and the holding volume was 199,275 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On March 31, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminium was 18,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminium was 18,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 44,900 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 80,400 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,927 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 273 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase. The supply - side copper mine TC is at a record low, and the port inventory is seasonally low. Refined copper production is expected to remain high. Demand has recovered, but downstream procurement sentiment is still weak when prices rebound. Global visible inventories are starting to decline. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to long - term long - order layout opportunities, with the main contract focusing on the 97,000 - 98,000 pressure level [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mine end and the smelting end. The zinc mine TC in the first quarter of 2026 is weak. Although the smelting profit is under pressure, the smelting end has not seen large - scale production cuts due to high by - product profits. The demand side is relatively stable, and the processing industry's operating rate has continued to rise in the first quarter. If overseas prices strengthen, the zinc ingot export space may open again. Considering the low ratio of finished product inventory to raw material inventory in the processing industry, there is room for restocking. The domestic zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The zinc price is supported by smelting costs, and the downward space is limited. The main contract should pay attention to the support around 23,000 [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated. The processing fees of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased, and the cumulative import volume of tin ore from January to February has increased significantly. The JFX exchange trading volume in February is expected to stabilize Indonesia's export level. The downstream consumption of tin is gradually recovering, with some traditional consumption being slightly weak, and the photovoltaic demand has slightly improved. With the market risk preference restored, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long orders and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon prices has spread panic to the industrial silicon sector. The supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large. Low - price and loss - making situations will suppress the resumption of production in the southwest region. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - side fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to try long positions at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. Many enterprises have production increase expectations, which will open up the downward space for spot prices. The current spot price is approaching the unit cost and moving towards the cash cost. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing. It is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss settings [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a stage of relative over - capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line in the long - term. The new low - cost capacity in Guangxi will be gradually released in the second quarter, which will put pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices in the short - term. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by the supply - side due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The LME aluminum inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic market demand has recovered. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April. The short - term core operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The nickel market has a complex situation. The Indonesian government plans to levy export taxes on nickel products, and the raw material supply is tight. The high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong, but the steel mills have a strong price - pressing attitude. The supply of refined nickel still has pressure. The overseas market is gently de - stocking, while the domestic market is still accumulating inventory. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the second quarter, the demand for casting aluminum alloy is seasonally weak, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The industry is in a weak - balance state. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and it follows the electrolytic aluminum price. It is necessary to track macro events and domestic tax policy changes [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is affected by macro and raw material news. The raw material supply is tight, and the high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong. The steel mills' production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The short - term price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fell significantly. The policy news from Zimbabwe has affected the market sentiment. The fundamental data of lithium carbonate remains resilient, with both supply and demand increasing. The upstream salt - factory supply is gradually increasing, and the demand is generally optimistic. The social inventory has started to accumulate. The short - term market may adjust, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 153,000 - 160,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference is - 251 yuan/ton, with a significant decline [1]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.153 million tons, a decrease of 24.95% month - on - month [1]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The import copper concentrate index is - 68.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.27% week - on - week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 0.5747 million tons, an increase of 12.25% week - on - week. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate is 83.17%, an increase of 1.66% week - on - week; the recycled copper rod operating rate is 5.83%, a decrease of 8.99% week - on - week [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 0.4031 million tons, a decrease of 13.81% week - on - week; the bonded area inventory is 0.0582 million tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the SHFE inventory is 0.3591 million tons, a decrease of 12.64% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import profit and loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.67 yuan compared with the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.0045 million tons, a decrease of 81.26% month - on - month; the export volume was 0.0039 million tons, an increase of 91.58% month - on - month [5]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The galvanizing operating rate is 58.88%, a decrease of 0.82% week - on - week; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate is 51.80%, an increase of 0.19% week - on - week; the zinc oxide operating rate is 55.50%, an increase of 0.14% week - on - week [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 0.2482 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.115 million tons, a decrease of 0.67% day - on - day [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The import profit and loss is - 6,623.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% [8]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, a decrease of 3.69% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month; the refined tin import volume was 2,168 tons, an increase of 96.91% month - on - month; the refined tin export volume was 1,216 tons, a decrease of 24.14% month - on - month [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHEF inventory is 8,400 tons, a decrease of 16.35% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,102 tons, a decrease of 17.08% week - on - week; the SHEF warehouse receipt is 6,775 tons, a decrease of 3.75% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis (based on SI5530) is 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.42% [10]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 329,900 tons, an increase of 19.66% month - on - month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 209,800 tons, an increase of 25.94% month - on - month; the Yunnan industrial silicon production is 14,800 tons, an increase of 10.86% month - on - month; the Sichuan industrial silicon production is 900 tons, an increase of DIV/0! month - on - month [10]. - **Inventory Data**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory is 33,200 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week; the social inventory is 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.27% week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.91%. The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% [12]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer production is 11.38 GM, a decrease of 3.40% week - on - week; the multi - layer silicon production is 19,400 tons, an increase of 2.11% week - on - week [12]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month; the polysilicon import volume is 1,600 tons, an increase of 54.97% month - on - month; the polysilicon export volume is 2,200 tons, an increase of 20.51% month - on - month [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The polysilicon inventory is 332,000 tons, a decrease of 3.49% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory is 26.98 CM, a decrease of 2.42% month - on - month; the polysilicon warehouse receipt is 11,030 tons, an increase of 0.09% day - on - day [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 4,741 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.3 yuan compared with the previous value [13]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In March, the alumina production was 7.2974 million tons, an increase of 10.56% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8311 million tons, an increase of 10.73% month - on - month; the overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.5725 million tons, an increase of 8.46% month - on - month [13]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The alumina operating rate is 76.43%, a decrease of 0.27% week - on - week; the aluminum profile operating rate is 59.00%, an increase of 7.27% week - on - week; the aluminum cable operating rate is 66.00%, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.373 million tons, an increase of 2.69% week - on - week; the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory is 0.3215 million tons, a decrease of 5.86% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.417 million tons, a decrease of 0.45% day - on - day [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.05% [14]. - **Cost Data**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% month - on - month; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowon nickel is 141,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.34% month - on - month [14]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, an increase of 84.63% month - on - month [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE inventory is 64,479 tons, an increase of 1.28% week - on - week; the social inventory is 89,808 tons, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 281,526 tons, a decrease of 0.02% day - on - day [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference is - 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.24% [16]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 209,300 tons, a decrease of 30.99% month - on - month; the scrap aluminum production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 33.68% month - on - month [16]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate is 31.34%, a decrease of 41.87% week - on - week; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate is 44.73%, a decrease of 23.59% week - on - week [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 33,700 tons,

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Long - term fundamentals of aluminum are still optimistic, although there are short - term concerns about domestic export markets due to transportation disruptions in the Middle East. For alumina, the price will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term and the price center will rise in the long term due to raw material disturbances [6][8] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Aluminum Spot - On March 30, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,530 yuan/ton, a change of 720 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 90 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by - 20 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,430 yuan/ton, a change of 710 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On March 30, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,815 yuan/ton, closed at 24,725 yuan/ton, a change of 820 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,840 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 438,973 lots, and the open interest was 263,928 lots [2] Inventory - As of March 30, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.373 million tons, a change of 24,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 412,452 tons, a change of 4,255 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 418,675 tons, a change of - 2,200 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On March 30, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,805 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,810 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,775 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,810 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 315 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On March 30, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,945 yuan/ton, closed at 2,941 yuan/ton, a change of 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of 1.00%, a maximum price of 2,956 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,908 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 353,124 lots, and the open interest was 202,711 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 30, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 44,900 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 80,400 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,135 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 665 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the Middle East, the electrolytic aluminum in Abu Dhabi, UAE was completely shut down due to bombing. As of now, the production cut in the Middle East has exceeded 2 million tons, and there may be further production cuts due to raw material or energy supply problems. Overseas consumption has not been substantially affected, overseas inventory is still declining, and the LME premium is rising. Although the Middle East issue is not resolved, the market sentiment is becoming more stable. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum alloy has decreased, laying the foundation for the future destocking of aluminum ingots [6] Alumina - In Guangxi, two transactions on the same day were at 2,870 yuan/ton and 2,730 yuan/ton, with trading volumes of 3,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively. The export limit policy of bauxite in Guinea is not clear. One large - scale mine has stopped one excavator, reducing the daily output by 9,000 tons. The policy may support the cost. The supply of alumina is still in surplus, the social inventory is slightly rising, and the domestic and foreign market prices are strengthening. In the short term, the alumina price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and in the long term, the price center will rise due to raw material disturbances [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, with no change from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week. Demand remained low. The polysilicon inventory was 332,000 tons, at a high level. The silicon wafer production was at a loss, while the battery cell production was profitable, and the component production was also profitable. The silicone inventory was 58,500 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of 2,430 yuan/ton, an overall operating rate of 68.6%, unchanged from the previous week and higher than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 44,900 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 2,487 yuan/ton. The A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi had a freight and profit of 623.12 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate was 59.5%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 670 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease from the previous week. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,390 - 8,570 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for March was predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.38GW, a 3.39% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 269,800 tons, a 2.42% decrease from the previous week. The silicon wafer production was at a loss. The production schedule for March was 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase from the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase from the previous week, and the production was profitable. The production schedule for March was 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase from the previous month. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for March was 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory was 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase from the previous month. The component production was profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income was - 810 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On March 30, the price of N - type dense material was 38,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase, while the demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to increase in the short - term and decline in the medium - term. Overall demand showed a continuous decline. Cost support remained stable. The polysilicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,475 - 37,625 [8]. Overall Logic - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production [11]. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint [3][5][7] - Industrial silicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview [14] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of decline compared to the previous values. Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. Inventory data showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. Production and operating rate data also showed different changes [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview [16] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of increase or remained unchanged compared to the previous values. Prices and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. showed different trends, and inventory data also changed [16]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends [18] - Showed the historical trends of the main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon [19]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory [21] - Presented the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the registered warrant volume [22][23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends [25] - Showed the historical trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of sample enterprises [26][27][28]. 7. Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends [30] - Presented the historical trends of electricity prices in main production areas, silicon stone prices in main production areas, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [31]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends [33] - Showed the historical cost trends of 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, as well as the cost differences between them [34][35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [37] - Analyzed the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, and actual consumption [38]. 10. Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [40] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [41]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - DMC Price and Production Trends [43] - Showed the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost, weekly production, and price [44]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Downstream Price Trends [45] - Presented the historical price trends of 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [46][47][48]. 13. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Import - Export and Inventory Trends [49] - Showed the historical trends of DMC monthly import, export, and inventory [50][52]. 14. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation [54] - Presented the historical trends of scrap aluminum recycling, scrap aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, Chinese unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [55]. 15. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends [57] - Showed the historical trends of monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy ingot social inventory [58]. 16. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels) [60] - Presented the historical trends of monthly automobile production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [61]. 17. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends [64] - Showed the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [65]. 18. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [67] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [68]. 19. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends [70] - Presented the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export of single - crystal and poly - silicon wafers [71]. 20. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends [73] - Showed the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [74]. 21. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends [76] - Presented the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly component production, and component export [77]. 22. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends [79] - Showed the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [80]. 23. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm) [82] - Showed the historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit - cost, battery cell profit - cost, and component profit - cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. 24. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends [83] - Presented the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, distributed photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The spot price is stable, while the futures price has declined due to the failure to reach production control. In the second quarter, it is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [1] Tin - In the short - term, tin prices may show a weak and volatile trend due to the Middle - East situation. In the long - term, there is a bullish logic. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices. [2] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in April. The market is currently inactive, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Copper - Copper prices have entered an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, and the inventory pressure has weakened. However, the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. [5] Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The smelting cost supports the zinc price, and there is potential for downstream restocking and export. The price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound can be considered. [7] Nickel - The Indonesian policy and raw material contradictions support the nickel price, but the slow digestion of inventory restricts it. The nickel price is expected to run in a strong range. [9] Aluminum - Alumina is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by the Middle - East situation and is expected to run in the range of 23,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw materials. The demand is gradually recovering, but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. [13] Lithium Carbonate - The supply - side news has boosted the market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient. It is expected to run in a strong range. [15] Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to run in the range of 22,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. [17] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged on March 27 compared to March 26, while the basis of some varieties increased. [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.26% on March 27 compared to March 26, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and the production of related downstream products all decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon also decreased. [1] - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly. [1] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased, while the SMM 1 tin premium decreased. [2] - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased slightly, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. [2] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The import of tin ore, the production of refined tin, and the开工率 of related enterprises changed. The export volume of refined tin decreased, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin increased. [2] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories in SHEF, social, SHEF warehouse receipts, and LME all decreased. [2] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. [3] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price increased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [3] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of silicon wafers decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased on a weekly basis but decreased on a monthly basis. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed. [3] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased. [3] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of electrolytic copper decreased slightly, and the premium of some varieties changed. The refined - scrap price difference decreased significantly. [5] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of electrolytic copper decreased. The import copper concentrate index decreased, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic ports increased. The开工率 of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [5] Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the premium changed. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of refined zinc decreased, while the export volume increased. The开工 rates of related industries changed slightly. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the LME inventory decreased slightly. [7] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of nickel decreased, and the premium of some varieties decreased. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased slightly, and the futures import profit increased significantly. The Shanghai - London ratio increased. [9] - **Electrowinning Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrowinning nickel changed. [9] - **New Energy Material Price**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the prices of other new energy materials remained unchanged. [9] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel decreased, while the import volume increased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [9] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze A00 aluminum increased. The prices of alumina in different regions increased slightly. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. Some monthly spreads changed. [11] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum decreased. The开工 rates of related industries changed. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [11] Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. The prices of some raw materials decreased slightly. [13] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The import, export, and net export volumes of stainless steel changed significantly. The inventories of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The basis decreased. The prices of lithium ore increased. [15] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [15] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased. The import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased. The capacity increased slightly, and the开工 rate decreased. The total inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased. [15] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of aluminum alloy increased. The average monthly price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased. Some monthly spreads changed. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum decreased. The import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The开工 rates of related industries decreased. The social inventory, factory - finished inventory, and raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The daily inventories in different regions changed. [17]

Group 1: Medical and Biological Sector - The core conclusion is that Yingke Medical (300677.SZ) is a global leader in disposable protective gloves, with significant cost, capacity, and financial advantages, leading in production and revenue scale in China and globally [6][7] - The disposable glove industry is experiencing a supply-demand improvement, with the company expanding nitrile glove production capacity, enhancing market share and profitability, leading to a strong growth outlook [6][7] - The company’s revenue for 2024 and Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 37.6% and 4.6%, respectively, with profits increasing by 282.6% and 34.5% [6] Group 2: Media Sector - Xindong Company (02400.HK) reported a revenue of 57.64 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, and a net profit of 15.35 billion yuan, up 89.2% [9] - The gaming business revenue reached 37.96 billion yuan, growing by 10.5%, driven by several successful new games [9][10] - The TapTap platform revenue increased by 24.7% to 19.68 billion yuan, with user engagement metrics showing positive trends [10] Group 3: Construction and Decoration Sector - China Energy Construction (601868.SH) achieved a revenue of 4529.30 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.71%, but net profit decreased by 30.44% [12][13] - The company’s overseas business showed strong growth, with a 34.65% increase in revenue from international operations [12] - The company is focusing on hydrogen energy, energy storage, and computing power, with significant investments in these areas [13] Group 4: Non-ferrous Metals Sector - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) reported a revenue of 2066.8 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 3.0%, while net profit increased by 50.3% [16][17] - The company’s copper production reached 741,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, positioning it among the top ten copper producers globally [17] - The company is pursuing a dual-core strategy focusing on copper and gold, with significant acquisitions planned to enhance production capacity [18] Group 5: Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors (9868.HK) reported total revenue of 767.2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 87.7%, with a significant improvement in gross margin [20][21] - The company achieved a delivery volume of 429,400 vehicles, a 125% increase year-on-year, contributing to a substantial rise in automotive sales revenue [20] - The service and other income reached 83.4 billion yuan, growing by 65.6%, driven by technology services and government subsidies [21] Group 6: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) reported a revenue of 1441.45 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.49%, but net profit decreased by 13.39% [24][25] - The company’s pig production volume increased by 19.10% year-on-year, but low pig prices negatively impacted overall profitability [25][26] - The slaughtering business achieved its first annual profit, with a capacity utilization rate of 98.8% [25] Group 7: Non-bank Financial Sector - New China Life Insurance (601336.SH) reported a net profit of 362.8 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [31][32] - The company’s new business value (NBV) increased by 57.4%, indicating strong growth in its insurance sales channels [31] - Total investment income rose by 30.9% to 104.3 billion yuan, significantly contributing to profitability [32] Group 8: Aluminum Sector - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) achieved a revenue of 600.43 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%, with net profit rising by 37.24% [35][36] - The company’s gross margin improved to 16.79%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [35] - The company plans to develop a full industrial chain focusing on green aluminum production, with production targets set for 2026 [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with polysilicon showing a weak and volatile trend. For industrial silicon, the supply remains relatively stable, demand is stable within a certain range, and high inventories are difficult to reduce, so the market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand structure is weak, inventories are accumulating slightly and remaining at a high level, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract rebounded from a low - level oscillation, closing at 8625 yuan/ton on March 27 [2][8] - **Supply**: Northwest China has stable production, the expectation of electricity price increase for large factories in Xinjiang has completely subsided. Yunnan and Sichuan are restricted by high electricity prices during the dry season, with low start - up rates and weak willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate remains stable. Due to the self - discipline of silicon enterprises, the market has rebounded to some extent [2] - **Demand**: The weekly start - up rate of polysilicon enterprises is basically stable, with a limited increase in production in April and limited incremental demand for industrial silicon. The weekly start - up rate of organic silicon has declined slightly, and some monomer plants are under maintenance, with cautious procurement of industrial silicon. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and terminal consumption has limited improvement. In February, industrial silicon exports were 47,500 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous month and a 7% increase year - on - year [2] - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon has increased slightly this week [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 560,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week [2] - **Price Difference**: As of March 27, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [12] - **Output**: As of March 27, 2026, the number of open furnaces for national industrial silicon was 209, unchanged from last week; the start - up rate was 25.93%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly output was 78,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week [19] Polysilicon - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of N - type dense material was 41,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton from last week; the futures main contract continued to decline, closing at 35,680 yuan/ton on March 27 [3][15] - **Supply**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and both upstream and downstream enterprises are relatively pessimistic about the future market. Polysilicon production may increase to some extent in April, but the overall increase is limited [3] - **Demand**: The recovery of terminal installation demand is slow. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish stocks for刚需. Some silicon material enterprises are forced to accept low - price orders due to inventory and capital pressure. Silicon wafer prices continue to decline, and procurement demand is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude. In February, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,622.13 tons, a 55% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2,214.66 tons, a 21% increase from the previous month [5] - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 333,200 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from last week [4][23] Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of March 27, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.015, 1.015, 1.115 and 1.315 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. The silicon wafer market continued to operate weakly, with the actual transaction center moving down slightly and lacking effective support [27] - **Battery Cells**: As of March 27, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.39, 0.39, 0.39 and 0.39 yuan/watt respectively, a decrease of 0.02, 0.02, 0.02 and 0.015 yuan/watt from last week. The transaction price of the battery cell market continued to decline. Although leading enterprises still maintained prices, second - and third - tier enterprises sold at reduced prices, and low - price supplies affected the overall price [31] - **Components**: As of March 27, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.79, 0.805, 0.79 and 0.805 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The component market was generally stable, with few transactions, and there was an expectation of price reduction in the future [34] - **Organic Silicon**: As of March 27, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up rate of organic silicon enterprises decreased slightly, and procurement became more cautious [37] - **Aluminum Alloys**: As of March 27, 2026, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises was supported, but the incremental pull was limited [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, alumina is expected to be weak first and then stable. In April, the concentrated arrival of imported alumina and the launch of new production capacity in Guangxi will put pressure on alumina. From May onwards, the tightening of Guinea's ore - end policies will gradually take effect. After the industry's profits turn negative, the new production will slow down comprehensively, and the market is expected to stop falling. There is a risk of an over - fall rebound due to unexpected production cuts caused by domestic losses. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline first and then rise. In early April, the geopolitical impact in the Middle East is dominant, and demand has not fully recovered. With the different inventory trends at home and abroad, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets cannot be quickly reversed. In late April, the peak - season effect will gradually increase, and the inflection point of domestic inventory reduction will appear. Domestic funds are ready, and it is time for domestic prices to follow the upward trend. After May, with domestic consumption - stimulating policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, prices are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, the actual realization of downstream demand, and the dynamics of the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - In the first quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated strongly. As of March 27, the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 8.9%. The Shanghai aluminum futures also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 24020 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 7.2%. The aluminum alloy futures also showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract closing at 22810 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 6.64% [6][8][10]. - In the first quarter, the spot discount of alumina widened from 59 yuan/ton to 286 yuan/ton. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum narrowed from 210 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, and the near - far month spread narrowed from 80 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Supply - **Alumina**: In the first quarter, the domestic production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 21.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The operating capacity decreased to 86.24 million tons, and the operating rate decreased to 78.2%. Domestically, the supply of domestic ore has slightly improved, and the import of ore has continued to increase. New production capacity is about to be launched in Guangxi, while production in Shanxi and Guizhou has decreased, and manufacturers in Henan have resumed production after maintenance. Abroad, due to the continuous conflict in the Middle East, Iran has made preventive production cuts, Qatar Aluminum has shut down 40% of its production, and Bahrain Aluminum has shut down three production lines [4][6]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: In the first quarter, the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum was 11.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The operating capacity increased to 44.3 million tons, the operating rate increased to 96.6%, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased to 64.4%. Some overseas aluminum plants have production changes. For example, the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozambique aluminum plant has been shut down due to the failure to reach an agreement on the power contract, while the 50,000 - ton idle capacity of the Mt. Holly aluminum plant is expected to resume production in April and reach full production by the end of the second quarter; the Icelandic aluminum plant will resume production at the end of April and reach full production by the end of July. Domestic and Indonesian projects are ramping up production, and the daily output of electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase at a high level [4][6]. 3.3 Demand - In the first quarter, the orders in March were diluted by the Spring Festival holiday. The overall start - up was stable, but there were significant structural differences. The average start - up rate in the first quarter was 59.69%, a 2.11% decrease from the previous quarter and a 0.83% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of plates, strips, and foils was relatively weak compared with the same period last year, while the start - up of cables increased significantly, providing support. The average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI from January to February was 40.8, a decrease of 6.34 from the previous quarter and a decrease of 11.7 year - on - year. It is expected that there will be room for growth in April. The processing fees of aluminum rods have increased across the board by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the processing fees of aluminum bars have increased in Wuxi and Baotou by 90 - 130 yuan/ton and decreased in Xinjiang, Henan, Linyi, and Guangdong by 20 - 170 yuan/ton [4][6]. 3.4 Inventory - **Exchange inventory**: In the first quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 162,000 tons to 284,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 324,000 tons to 454,600 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 88,700 tons to 423,000 tons. - **Social inventory**: In the first quarter, the alumina social inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 235,000 tons; the aluminum ingot inventory increased by 689,000 tons to 1.349 million tons; the aluminum bar inventory increased by 202,500 tons to 341,500 tons [4][7]. 3.5 Capacity - **Domestic alumina capacity**: There are large increments in new projects, increasing the over - supply pressure. The total planned capacity of new domestic alumina projects is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons put into production in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [67]. - **Overseas alumina capacity**: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned capacity of new overseas alumina projects is 14.4 million tons, with 2.6 million tons put into production in 2025, 1.4 million tons in 2026, and 10.4 million tons in 2027 and beyond [68][69]. - **Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity**: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned capacity of new domestic electrolytic aluminum projects is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons put into production in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [70]. - **Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity**: There are regional differences and a lag in the rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into production in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [71]. 3.6 Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina has changed from surplus to shortage. From January to February, the production of overseas alumina and primary aluminum was 9.71 million tons and 4.8 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and 0.4% [91]. - It is expected that in the second quarter, the surplus pattern of alumina will intensify; after the marginal reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory, the supply - demand pattern will improve [92][93].