1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, alumina is expected to be strong due to cost and supply support. However, in the long - term, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina due to a large number of new domestic and foreign production capacities to be put into operation [2][6] - The price of imported ore is expected to continue rising, and the cost support for alumina is constantly increasing. The supply pressure is not significant in the short term as some domestic production has been cut and new production capacities have not yet reached full capacity [2][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The closing price of the main alumina futures contract last week was 3,041 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market on Friday was 2,752 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous week [4] - The price of Australian alumina FOB increased from 297 to 320 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased from 85.12 to - 73.21 yuan/ton [3] - The inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts last Friday was 414,000 tons, an increase of 14,971 tons from the previous week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 2,700 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons [2][4][6] 3.2 Market Review - In the bauxite market, the domestic bauxite market still has a low operating rate of inland mines. The price of imported ore may continue to rise and may exceed 70 US dollars/ton. Attention should be paid to Guinea's policy on bauxite export volume [4] - On the supply side, the production of alumina enterprises is relatively stable. As of March 26, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 89 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.14% [4] - On the consumption side, the production of the electrolytic aluminum industry continues to show a slight increase, and there is no production reduction or resumption. The new production capacity of an enterprise in Inner Mongolia is still being put into operation, and the demand for alumina has slightly increased [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the ore segment, Guinea's Ministry of Mines has spoken again about reducing bauxite export volume, and the probability of reduction is high, but the quantity has not been determined [2][6] - On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the maintenance plan of a Guizhou alumina plant at the end of the month, and the operating capacity of alumina may decline slightly in the short term [2][6] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises purchase alumina as needed. There is a large amount of spot delivery, and the circulating supply is tight [2][6] 3.4 Industry News - On March 24, Guinea's Mining Minister Bouna Syla said that they will reduce bauxite export volume to create more fiscal revenue for the country and ensure the sustainable operation of mining operators [7] - From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 441,400 tons of alumina and exported a total of 334,500 tons, with a net import of 106,900 tons [7] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premium, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, steam coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [8][10][13][15][17][18][21]