专题报告 2025-12-03 氧化铝：海外铝土矿供应分析 报告要点： 核心观点：铝土矿价格短期将承压，关注进口成本支撑 当前冶炼端供应过剩格局持续，叠加明年仍有较多新建产能待投产，过剩趋势短期较难逆 转，因此成本端铝土矿价格成为了决定氧化铝底部的核心因素。今年以来，随着几内亚和非主 流国家铝土矿项目的持续达产，中国进口海外铝土矿大幅增加。截止今年 10 月，中国累计进 口铝土矿 17140 万吨，同比去年增长 30.11%，其中主要增量国包括几内亚、圭亚那、马来西亚、 巴西，澳洲小幅下滑。 尽管前期因雨季影响，铝土矿价格出现阶段性反弹，但随着近期发运恢复，铝土矿价格开 始震荡下行。铝土矿价格反转需依赖于海外供应大规模收缩，几内亚铝土矿的进口成本成为关 键的价格支撑位。根据阿拉丁调研了解，几内亚铝土矿 FOB 成本在 20-50 美元/吨区间，40 美 金成本是较为密集的价位，包括了运营成本、税收和陆地运输成本。几内亚至中国海运费目前 则在 20-25 美元/吨区间波动，西芒杜铁矿石投产后或将推动海运费走强。综合来看，60 美元 -65 美元预计会成为几内亚铝土矿 CIF 价格较为有力的支撑，对应氧化铝价格成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure. Although the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, the downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely due to the oversupply of alumina, and the consumption increment is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to rise, adding pressure to the market. Attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/12 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3006 | 2914 | -92 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3166 | 3099 | -67 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 202 | 224 | 22 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 355 | 333 | -22 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -1.30 | 123 | 124.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 112306 | 138692 | 26386 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 3.06% last week, closing at 2914 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market was reported at 3099 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In the bauxite market, the overall supply of domestic ores remains severe. The regular inspections and the slow resumption of closed mines have kept the operating rate of inland mines low, with limited spot circulation in the market, which supports the price. The inventory of imported ores at Chinese ports has started to decline, but the overall supply of imported ores in China is still slightly excessive. Enterprises will continue to make purchases based on rigid demand in the short term, and the differences in price views between supply and demand sides will lead to continued price competition in the market [5]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north that were affected by environmental protection measures and reduced production have slightly increased production this week. As of September 11, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [5]. - On the consumption side, last week, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, while other electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintained stable production. Overall, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable compared with the previous week, and the demand for alumina did not change significantly [5]. - In terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 11,000 tons last Friday, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [2][5][7]. Market Outlook - The Chinese bauxite market showed no significant changes last week. The interaction of multiple bullish and bearish factors led to no substantial adjustment in prices. On the supply side, some previously shut - down production capacities resumed operation last week, resulting in a slight increase in operating capacity. On the consumption side, the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. However, due to the oversupply of alumina, downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with limited consumption increment. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 11,000 tons during the week, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, and considering the current weighted average cost of alumina, there is still some profit. It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will remain high in the future. The consumption side remains stable, and with sufficient supply, buyers have a strong mindset of pressing down prices. The rising warehouse receipt inventory also adds pressure, so alumina will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. Industry News - Vedanta announced an investment of over 125 billion rupees to enhance its metal manufacturing capabilities, aiming to strengthen the domestic supply of key materials necessary for electric vehicle production to meet the needs of India's rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) industry and contribute to India's vision of sustainable and clean transportation. The investment involves expanding the aluminum smelting business, increasing the added value of aluminum products, building a new zinc alloy factory, installing a zinc roasting furnace, and expanding the ferrochrome production capacity [8]. - Jiaokou County Wangzhuang Pig Iron Co., Ltd. won the exploration right of the Fengjiagang block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with the highest bid of 3.1728 billion yuan [8]. - Metro Mining's operating data for August 2025 showed that the shipment volume of its Queensland bauxite mine project increased by 6% year - on - year to 753,101 wet tons. As of now, Metro Mining's total bauxite shipment volume has reached 3.4 million wet tons, and its target shipment volume for 2025 is 6.5 - 7 million wet tons [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term geopolitical factors may increase transportation costs, supporting the ore price and providing good cost support for alumina. The intention of unreactivated alumina production capacity to resume production is low as prices fall and profits are squeezed. The alumina market is in a game between supply and demand, with alumina expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the low - level persistence of warehouse receipt inventory, especially the potential liquidity risk during the delivery month [2][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/6/13 | 2025/6/20 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2852 | 2890 | 38 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3287 | 3197 | - 90 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 287 | 202 | - 85 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 363 | 363 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 44.27 | - 31.93 | - 76.2 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 80143 | 42928 | - 37215 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 300 | 300 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures rose 1.33% last week, closing at 2890 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price fell 90 Yuan/ton to 3197 Yuan/ton. Domestic bauxite is tight, and the procurement is cautious. The price game between supply and demand of imported bauxite continues. The alumina supply decreased slightly, and the demand remained high. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 37,000 tons to 43,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained unchanged at 300 tons [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - The bauxite supply was stable last week. If the transportation is affected by the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab - el - Mandeb, the transportation cost of imported bauxite from Guinea will increase. A Guangxi alumina enterprise cut production by 500,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminum capacity increased slightly, and the procurement was mainly based on long - term contracts. The cost support for alumina is good, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the low - level persistence of warehouse receipt inventory [6] 3.4 Industry News - In May 2025, China exported 207,800 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 104.6%, and imported 67,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.3%. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative alumina imports decreased by 85.4% year - on - year, and exports increased by 79.4% year - on - year. In May 2025, China imported 1.7514 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 15.32% and a year - on - year increase of 29.43% [7] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, spot prices, spot premiums, cross - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina costs and profits, and alumina exchange inventories [8][12][13][15][16]