Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The price of bauxite will face short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the support of import costs. The current oversupply pattern in the smelting end continues, and there are still many new production capacities to be put into operation next year, so the bauxite price at the cost end becomes the core factor determining the bottom of alumina. Since this year, with the continuous reaching of production of bauxite projects in Guinea and non - mainstream countries, China's imports of overseas bauxite have increased significantly. The price reversal of bauxite depends on a large - scale contraction of overseas supply, and the import cost of Guinea bauxite is the key price support level [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. China's Bauxite Import Analysis - The alumina futures price has been continuously oscillating downward recently. Since November, the alumina weighted index has fallen by 3.7% to 2,710 yuan/ton. As of October this year, China has cumulatively imported 17,140 tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 30.11%. The main incremental countries include Guinea, Guyana, Malaysia, and Brazil, while Australia has a slight decline [5]. - In Guinea, China imported 12,743 tons of bauxite in the first ten months, a year - on - year increase of 38.37%. After entering the rainy season, Guinea's shipments were blocked, resulting in a continuous three - month decline in imports, and it is expected to gradually recover in November [5]. - In Australia, China imported 3,160 tons of bauxite in the first ten months, a year - on - year decline of 4.23%, mainly because the local alumina restart has increased the local consumption of bauxite [5]. - From other non - mainstream source countries, China imported 1,237 tons of bauxite in the first ten months, a year - on - year increase of 85.98% [5]. 2. Has the Bauxite Price Reached the Bottom? - After the large - scale expansion of bauxite production capacity, the supply has gradually become oversupplied. Coupled with the continuous contraction of the profits of alumina smelters, the smelters' willingness to lower prices has increased. The price of Guinea bauxite has dropped from over $120/ton at the beginning of the year to $71/ton. Although there was a phased rebound due to the rainy season, the price has started to oscillate downward recently [21]. - As of November 28, the floating inventory of bauxite has increased from the previous 1.192 million tons to 1.38 million tons. Although the arrival volume decreased from August to October, the port inventory of bauxite remained at a high level, which will further increase the pressure on the bauxite price after the rainy season. The bauxite price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [21]. - The price reversal of bauxite depends on a large - scale contraction of overseas supply. The import cost of Guinea bauxite is the key price support level. The FOB cost of Guinea bauxite is in the range of $20 - $50/ton, and the cost of $40 is a relatively concentrated price. The sea freight from Guinea to China is currently fluctuating in the range of $20 - $25/ton. After the commissioning of Simandou iron ore, the sea freight may strengthen. Overall, $60 - $65 is expected to be a relatively strong support for the CIF price of Guinea bauxite, corresponding to an alumina price cost support of 2,450 - 2,550 yuan/ton. If the ore price falls below this range, it is expected to drive mining enterprises to contract supply [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure. Although the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, the downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely due to the oversupply of alumina, and the consumption increment is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to rise, adding pressure to the market. Attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/12 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3006 | 2914 | -92 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3166 | 3099 | -67 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 202 | 224 | 22 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 355 | 333 | -22 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -1.30 | 123 | 124.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 112306 | 138692 | 26386 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 3.06% last week, closing at 2914 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market was reported at 3099 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In the bauxite market, the overall supply of domestic ores remains severe. The regular inspections and the slow resumption of closed mines have kept the operating rate of inland mines low, with limited spot circulation in the market, which supports the price. The inventory of imported ores at Chinese ports has started to decline, but the overall supply of imported ores in China is still slightly excessive. Enterprises will continue to make purchases based on rigid demand in the short term, and the differences in price views between supply and demand sides will lead to continued price competition in the market [5]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north that were affected by environmental protection measures and reduced production have slightly increased production this week. As of September 11, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [5]. - On the consumption side, last week, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, while other electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintained stable production. Overall, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable compared with the previous week, and the demand for alumina did not change significantly [5]. - In terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 11,000 tons last Friday, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [2][5][7]. Market Outlook - The Chinese bauxite market showed no significant changes last week. The interaction of multiple bullish and bearish factors led to no substantial adjustment in prices. On the supply side, some previously shut - down production capacities resumed operation last week, resulting in a slight increase in operating capacity. On the consumption side, the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. However, due to the oversupply of alumina, downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with limited consumption increment. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 11,000 tons during the week, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, and considering the current weighted average cost of alumina, there is still some profit. It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will remain high in the future. The consumption side remains stable, and with sufficient supply, buyers have a strong mindset of pressing down prices. The rising warehouse receipt inventory also adds pressure, so alumina will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. Industry News - Vedanta announced an investment of over 125 billion rupees to enhance its metal manufacturing capabilities, aiming to strengthen the domestic supply of key materials necessary for electric vehicle production to meet the needs of India's rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) industry and contribute to India's vision of sustainable and clean transportation. The investment involves expanding the aluminum smelting business, increasing the added value of aluminum products, building a new zinc alloy factory, installing a zinc roasting furnace, and expanding the ferrochrome production capacity [8]. - Jiaokou County Wangzhuang Pig Iron Co., Ltd. won the exploration right of the Fengjiagang block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with the highest bid of 3.1728 billion yuan [8]. - Metro Mining's operating data for August 2025 showed that the shipment volume of its Queensland bauxite mine project increased by 6% year - on - year to 753,101 wet tons. As of now, Metro Mining's total bauxite shipment volume has reached 3.4 million wet tons, and its target shipment volume for 2025 is 6.5 - 7 million wet tons [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term geopolitical factors may increase transportation costs, supporting the ore price and providing good cost support for alumina. The intention of unreactivated alumina production capacity to resume production is low as prices fall and profits are squeezed. The alumina market is in a game between supply and demand, with alumina expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the low - level persistence of warehouse receipt inventory, especially the potential liquidity risk during the delivery month [2][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/6/13 | 2025/6/20 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2852 | 2890 | 38 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3287 | 3197 | - 90 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 287 | 202 | - 85 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 363 | 363 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 44.27 | - 31.93 | - 76.2 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 80143 | 42928 | - 37215 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 300 | 300 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures rose 1.33% last week, closing at 2890 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price fell 90 Yuan/ton to 3197 Yuan/ton. Domestic bauxite is tight, and the procurement is cautious. The price game between supply and demand of imported bauxite continues. The alumina supply decreased slightly, and the demand remained high. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 37,000 tons to 43,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained unchanged at 300 tons [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - The bauxite supply was stable last week. If the transportation is affected by the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab - el - Mandeb, the transportation cost of imported bauxite from Guinea will increase. A Guangxi alumina enterprise cut production by 500,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminum capacity increased slightly, and the procurement was mainly based on long - term contracts. The cost support for alumina is good, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the low - level persistence of warehouse receipt inventory [6] 3.4 Industry News - In May 2025, China exported 207,800 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 104.6%, and imported 67,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.3%. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative alumina imports decreased by 85.4% year - on - year, and exports increased by 79.4% year - on - year. In May 2025, China imported 1.7514 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 15.32% and a year - on - year increase of 29.43% [7] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, spot prices, spot premiums, cross - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina costs and profits, and alumina exchange inventories [8][12][13][15][16]