Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the alumina spot market has tight supply, and the continuous decline in warehouse receipt inventory supports the near - term prices, making them relatively resistant to decline. However, as alumina复产 progresses, the expectation of increased future supply is growing, and the support for near - term prices will gradually weaken. The near - term prices are expected to decline to find a reasonable range. Considering the firm bauxite prices due to Guinea's bauxite supply, the cost support is good, and the downward space is expected to be limited [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/13 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2901 | 2852 | - 49 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3306 | 3287 | - 19 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 279 | 287 | 8 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 363 | 363 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 85.69 | 44.27 | - 41.4 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 92468 | 80143 | - 12325 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 300 | 300 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 75 | 74.5 | - 0.5 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 1.69% last week, closing at 2852 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 3287 Yuan/ton, down 19 Yuan/ton from the previous week. - For bauxite, domestic bauxite supply remains tight. With strong profit recovery expectations for alumina, the procurement of bauxite is cautious, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions, and the price center of domestic bauxite has slightly declined. For imported bauxite, factors such as shipping schedules from Guinea have made enterprises cautious about spot procurement. Sellers still have a certain attitude of holding up prices due to the upcoming rainy season in Guinea, and the price game between supply and demand continues. - On the supply side, some alumina enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, increasing the alumina supply. However, the supply in some regions is still tight, and it is difficult to pick up goods. As of June 12, China's alumina installed capacity was 112.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.05 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.34%. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guizhou have plans to resume production, and those in Yunnan may also release new production capacity. It is expected that the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly next week. - In terms of inventory, last Friday, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12325 tons to 80,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons [4]. Market Outlook - The bauxite supply was basically stable last week. Attention should continue to be paid to the impact of the political situation in Guinea and the rainy season on imported bauxite. On the supply side, some alumina enterprises are promoting the resumption of production, and the operating capacity of alumina has increased. However, after a long - term operation at a low capacity, the spot supply in some regions is slightly tight, and the overall supply pressure has not been clearly shown. The market spot price remains relatively firm. On the consumption side, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, but there is a relatively bearish view on the alumina price, and procurement is cautious. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 12325 tons last week to 80,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons. Overall, the current alumina spot market has tight supply, and the continuous decline in warehouse receipt inventory affects the market, making the near - term prices relatively resistant to decline. But as alumina production resumes, the expectation of increased future supply is growing, and the support for near - term prices will gradually weaken. The near - term prices are expected to decline to find a reasonable range. Considering the firm bauxite prices due to Guinea's bauxite supply, the cost support is good, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. Industry News - Ambassador Yang Renhuo of China to Guinea - Bissau attended the commencement ceremony of the bauxite exploration project of Chinalco in the Boé region of Gabu Province. - A public notice was issued for the new establishment of the mining right for the Xiaozaozhuang block bauxite mine in Zhongyang County, Shanxi Province. The mining right holder is Ningbo Kunye Trading Co., Ltd. The public notice period is from June 9, 2025, to June 20, 2025 [7]. Related Charts The report provides charts including alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [8][9][11].