1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical sentiment related to the Middle - East conflict has subsided, and the futures - spot price spread has converged. The futures price of alumina has declined due to the cooling of the US - Iran conflict and high futures premiums. The spot price has rebounded in most regions due to production capacity overhauls and increased delivery demand. The bauxite price has increased due to multiple factors, and the alumina supply is tightening in the short - term but remains in a long - term surplus situation. The market should adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on March 27, the alumina index fell 2.85% to 2966 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 23,000 lots to 421,000 lots. The futures price oscillated downward due to the cooling of the US - Iran conflict and high futures premiums. The Shandong spot price was 2715 yuan/ton, at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 52 yuan/ton [11][23] - **Spot Price**: This week, the alumina spot prices in various regions rebounded. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 5 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and remained flat respectively. Some production capacity overhauls continued, and the premium in the futures market led to increased delivery demand, keeping the circulating spot supply tight [11][20] - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 12,000 tons to 5.846 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 23,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 37,000 tons, and decreased by 38,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 15,000 tons to 414,100 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 475,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last week [11][69][71] 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The alumina spot prices in various regions rebounded this week. The tight supply was due to ongoing production capacity overhauls and increased delivery demand caused by the futures premium [20] - **Futures Price and Basis**: The alumina index fell 2.85% to 2966 yuan/ton this week. The Shandong spot price was at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and the spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 52 yuan/ton [23] - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite prices remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite increased by $2.5/ton to $67.5/ton, and that of Australian bauxite increased by $5/ton to $62/ton. The price increase was due to the Middle - East conflict, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the temporary closure of two Australian bauxite mines by Rio Tinto [27] 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In February 2026, China's bauxite production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.92%. The cumulative production in the first two months was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16%. In February, bauxite imports were 16.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.61% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.95%. The cumulative imports in the first two months were 36.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.23% [31][33] - **Bauxite Inventory**: In February, China's bauxite inventory increased by 960,000 tons to 58.86 million tons, remaining at a high level in the past five years. The inventory in Shanxi and Henan increased by 70,000 tons respectively, and the inventory increase mainly came from Shandong and Guangxi [40] - **Alumina Production**: In February 2026, China's alumina production was 7.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.77% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%. The cumulative production in the first two months was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.52%. As of March 27, 2026, the weekly alumina production was 1.782 million tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons from last week [42][43] - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The alumina spot price rebounded, but the cost of bauxite and caustic soda also increased, leading to a contraction in the profit of alumina plants. According to the alumina spot price on March 27, the production profit in Guangxi was 150 yuan/ton; the profit in Shandong using Australian and Guinea ore was 230 yuan/ton and 250 yuan/ton respectively. Alumina plants in inland areas using overseas ore had a loss of 30 yuan/ton in Shanxi and a profit of 60 yuan/ton in Henan [46] - **Alumina Import and Export**: In February 2026, the net import of alumina was 34,600 tons. As of March 27, the FOB price in Australia increased by $18/ton to $320/ton, and the import loss was 37 yuan/ton, closing the import window, mainly due to the impact of the Australian cyclone [49][51] - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In February 2026, overseas alumina production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%. The cumulative production in the first two months was 10.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59% [53] 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.71%. The cumulative production in the first two months was 7.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.25% [58] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In February 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. The operating rate increased by 0.13% to 97.08% [61] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina balance sheet shows the supply - demand situation from February to December 2026 (estimated). The supply generally exceeds the demand, and the net export situation is relatively stable [64] 3.6 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 12,000 tons to 5.846 million tons this week, with different changes in various sub - inventories [69] - **Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 15,000 tons to 414,100 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 475,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last week [71]