氯碱日报 | 2026-03-13 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2489元/吨（+6）；山东32%液碱基差-442元/吨（-6）。 乙烯法降负，电石法提负 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5620元/吨（+49）；华东基差0元/吨（+271）;华南基差90元/吨（+61）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价5620元/吨（+320）；华南电石法报价5710元/吨（+110）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格685元/吨（+0）；电石价格2910元/吨（+30）；电石利润72元/吨（+30）；PVC电石法生产 毛利267元/吨（+426）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-235元/吨（+48）；PVC出口利润155.1美元/吨（+57.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存37.7万吨（-8.1）；PVC社会库存63.2万吨（-0.4）；PVC电石法开工率81.89%（+1.48%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.00%（-6.24%）；PVC开工率78.49%（-0.93%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量109.2万吨（+20.2）。 烧碱： 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价655元/吨（+0）；山东50% ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Chlor - Alkali (PVC and Caustic Soda) Daily Report [2] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Qin [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - PVC: The domestic PVC spot market is oscillating downward. The anti - dumping tax decision in India will reduce China's PVC exports, and the supply - demand situation is weakening. In the absence of substantial policies, the strategy is to short on rebounds [5][7]. - Caustic Soda: There may be short - term callback pressure, but the medium - term outlook is positive. The 01 contract is expected to rise, and the strategy is to buy on dips [8][9]. Group 4: Related Data Summary PVC - related - Futures Prices: V2605 decreased by 44 to 5255 (-0.83%), V2509 decreased by 52 to 4802 (-1.07%), V2601 decreased by 50 to 4949 (-1.00%) [4]. - Main Position: Increased by 5.3 to 111.0 (4.97%) [4]. - Warehouse Receipts: Increased by 0.01 to 8.25 (0.18%) [4]. - Basis and Spread: V9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 to - 147 (1.38%), V1 - 5 spread decreased by 6 to - 306 (2.00%) [4]. - Spot Prices: Most domestic PVC spot prices decreased, such as East China SG - 5 decreased by 50 to 4710 (-1.05%) [4]. - Spot Spreads: South China - East China SG5 spread increased by 20 to 40 (100%), East China - North China SG5 spread decreased by 40 to 190 (-17.39%) [4]. - Cost and Profit: Northwest self - produced calcium carbide PVC profit decreased by 10 to - 639 (1.6%) [4]. Caustic Soda - related - Futures Prices: SH509 increased by 15 to 2548 (0.59%), SH510 decreased by 4 to 2658 (-0.15%), SH601 decreased by 4 to 2699 (-0.15%) [4]. - SH01 Position: Increased by 0.2 to 12.01 (1.37%) [4]. - Warehouse Receipts: Remained unchanged at 114 (0.00%) [4]. - Basis and Spread: SH9 - 1 spread increased by 19 to - 151 (-11.18%), SH10 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 41 (0.00%) [4]. - Spot Prices: Some 32% and 48% liquid caustic soda prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang increased, while most prices remained stable [4][6]. - Spot Spreads: Jiangsu 50% - 32% spread increased by 68 to 208 (48.15%), Guangdong flake caustic soda - Guangdong 50% spread increased by 25 to 635 (4.10%) [4]. - Cost and Profit: 50% caustic soda export profit decreased by 3 to - 128 (2.43%) [4]. Group 5: Market Review - PVC: The domestic PVC spot market oscillated downward, affected by the decline of the black sector and high supply with no bright spots in demand [5]. - Caustic Soda: The domestic liquid caustic soda market had fair transactions. Some regions' prices increased due to factors such as alumina demand and plant maintenance [6]. Group 6: Related Information - No related information provided [7] Group 7: Logical Analysis PVC - The anti - dumping tax decision in India will significantly reduce China's PVC exports, and the supply - demand situation is weakening. New production capacity is under pressure, and demand is weak [7]. Caustic Soda - Short - term callback pressure exists, but the medium - term outlook is positive due to high alumina production capacity, export expectations, and manageable inventory [8]. Group 8: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short PVC on rebounds; buy caustic soda 01 contract on dips [9]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on hold [9]. - Options: Temporarily on hold [9]. Group 9: Related Graphs - The report includes graphs of PVC and caustic soda futures prices, basis, spreads, positions, warehouse receipts, spot prices, costs, and profits over time [12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][27][28][29][30][31][32][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][42][43][44][45]