汽车产业新旧动能转换

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关于产能,中国车企的机遇与使命
Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang· 2025-07-01 01:16
Core Viewpoint - The global automotive industry is facing severe overcapacity, prompting companies like Geely to halt the construction of new factories and focus on resource reorganization to utilize existing global overcapacity [2][8]. Group 1: Global Automotive Capacity Utilization - Global automotive production is projected to decline from approximately 94 million units in 2023 to about 93 million units in 2024 due to weak demand in various regions [3]. - The capacity utilization rate in the U.S. automotive and parts sector has remained below the 70% "international healthy line" since October of the previous year, with a forecasted decline to 63% by 2035 [3][4]. - In Europe, the average capacity utilization rate for automotive factories is below 65%, a decrease of 20 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic levels [3][4]. Group 2: Domestic Automotive Industry Insights - The domestic automotive industry has differing views on overcapacity, with existing fuel vehicle capacity around 30 million units and new energy vehicle capacity at about 20 million units, while only 2-3 million units of fuel vehicle capacity have been absorbed [4][6]. - Some domestic leading automakers have high capacity utilization rates, with figures reaching 98.3%, 86.7%, and 72.4% for the top three self-owned brands [12]. - The restructuring of production lines from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles is becoming common, with companies like GAC Group repurposing facilities previously used for traditional vehicles [13][14]. Group 3: Global Resource Integration and Opportunities - Chinese automakers are increasingly engaging in overseas acquisitions to utilize idle production capacity, as seen with Geely's investment in Renault's Brazilian subsidiary [8][10]. - The closure of factories by multinational companies like Nissan and Volkswagen due to declining sales presents opportunities for Chinese companies to acquire and utilize these idle capacities [9][10]. - The strategy of acquiring idle production capacity abroad is seen as a cost-effective way to enter local markets and optimize supply chains, reducing transportation costs significantly [11][12]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments and Industry Transformation - Companies are advised to focus on internal restructuring and optimizing capacity utilization rather than building new factories, as highlighted by Geely's decision to stop new factory constructions [16][17]. - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation, with a shift towards high-quality development and collaboration rather than competition based on expansion [17][18]. - The successful repurposing of existing facilities, as demonstrated by companies like Li Auto and GAC, shows the potential for significant economic contributions and job creation through effective capacity management [14][15].