智通财经APP获悉，乘联分会秘书长崔东树于《2025年12月汽车细分市场走势和厂家竞争表现分析》中提到，2025年宏观经济保持较强增长，在国家促销 费政策推动下汽车市场保持强势增长，2025年全国汽车市场总体走势较强，卡车市场和客车市场回暖明显。由于去年政策力度超强，今年政策收缩明显， 2024年12月的零售大幅强于批发，导致今年12月乘用车零售负增长，但因出口和库存增量，12月厂家销量增速相对较好。12月新能源车走势较强，汽车出 口市场持续走强，厂商库存变化较大，行业压力仍较大。2025年商用车市场出现设备更新补贴推动的结构性增长特征，高补贴带来物流运输类电动化加 速，商用车景气度较高。 1、2025年汽车乘商走势分化 近几年乘商分化特征明显，随着房地产持续下滑，商用车走弱，乘用车消费改善。2025年市场受政策因素推动，乘用车增速9%相对较好，商用车受电动 化推动，新能源商用车走势较去年明显走强，包含微客的客车市场实现较强增长。以旧换新政策对乘用车拉动较好，尤其是政策进入期效果好，近期绝大 部分暂停补贴，行业综合治理"内卷"工作取得积极进展，车市总体走势放缓。 2、2025年汽车市场降温 3、主力车企集团的 ...

Core Insights - The automotive market in China is expected to maintain strong growth in 2025, driven by macroeconomic factors and government policies promoting consumption [1] - The differentiation between passenger and commercial vehicles is becoming more pronounced, with passenger vehicle sales projected to grow by 13% in 2025, while commercial vehicles benefit from the electrification trend [4][6] - The performance of major automotive groups is showing significant divergence, with some state-owned enterprises lagging behind, while private companies like BYD and Chery are performing well [8][11] Group 1: Market Trends - The overall automotive market in September showed strong performance, with total sales reaching 3.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [6] - The commercial vehicle market is experiencing a structural growth driven by electrification, particularly in logistics and pickup segments [1][4] - The passenger vehicle market is benefiting from trade-in policies, with strong sales growth expected as regions resume previously paused incentives [4][11] Group 2: Sales Performance - From January to September 2025, total automotive sales reached 24.21 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12% [6] - In September 2025, narrow passenger vehicle sales totaled 2.8 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [16] - The sales of new energy passenger vehicles in September reached 1.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% [24] Group 3: Company Performance - BYD leads the market, followed by Geely and Chery, with significant growth in their sales figures [18] - Traditional fuel vehicle sales are under pressure, with a projected decline of 10% in 2024, while new energy vehicles continue to gain market share [29][31] - The commercial vehicle segment is seeing strong performance from leading manufacturers like FAW and Heavy Truck, with significant year-on-year increases in sales [40]