Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "stagflation" as a significant economic challenge, highlighting its origins and implications for economic policy [1][3][5] - It outlines the historical context of stagflation, particularly during the 1970s in the United States, where inflation and unemployment rose simultaneously, creating a complex economic environment [3][14] - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of economic downturns, suggesting that stagflation often initiates periods of economic recession [5][19] Group 2 - The piece explains how Keynesian economics was initially embraced by the U.S. government to stimulate the economy, but ultimately led to stagflation due to excessive money supply and government spending [7][11] - It details the political pressures faced by U.S. presidents, who often prioritized short-term economic relief over long-term stability, exacerbating stagflation [11][14] - The article highlights the role of monetary policy in managing stagflation, particularly the contrasting approaches of different administrations, such as Nixon's expansionary policies versus Reagan's tightening measures [16][17] Group 3 - The narrative illustrates the impact of external factors, such as oil crises, on the U.S. economy, which intensified stagflation and challenged policymakers [14][19] - It discusses the importance of restoring public confidence in currency and the economy as a means to combat stagflation, emphasizing the need for decisive action from leadership [17][19] - The article concludes by reflecting on the lessons learned from past stagflation experiences, suggesting that a combination of tight monetary policy and structural reforms may be necessary to address similar challenges in the future [19]

随着美联储内部分歧日益加剧，市场预期鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放明确信号。 据追风交易台消息，美银分析师Stephen Juneau、Shruti Mishra在最新研报中表示，尽管美联储内部分歧 严重，但市场仍应将焦点牢牢锁定在主席鲍威尔身上。 鲍威尔话语权仍占主导地位，市场静待杰克逊霍尔年会 尽管美联储内部分歧明显，美银仍强调鲍威尔的沟通仍具有压倒性权重。尽管鲍威尔的任期即将结束， 但他对委员会的影响力依然举足轻重，最近一次会议上9：2的投票结果就是力证。 因此，报告指出，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会的年度演讲将至关重要。该论坛历史上曾多次被美联储 主席用作宣告重大政策框架调整的舞台。例如，鲍威尔在2022年8月的演讲中就表达了其强硬对抗通胀 的"沃尔克时刻"（Volcker moment），为后续的激进加息奠定了基调。 鹰鸽两派阵营分明，政策前景愈发模糊 7月就业报告公布后，美联储结束静默期，官员们密集发声。据美银统计，周三就有四名官员—— Kashkari、Collins、Cook和Daly发表讲话。未来一周，预计还将有更多官员包括Musalem和Barkin发表 意见。 报告分析称，美联储内部 ...