编者按 当一个国家的生产能力、收入水平成长到一定高度后，会越来越频繁地遇到需求不足的挑战。需求不 足的有些危害很直观，如企业收入和盈利下降、新增就业机会减少、社会财富缩水、信心与预期恶化 等，也有些危害不太直观，如营商环境恶化、对外经贸争端增加、收入分配恶化、新生力量受损、金 融风险上升等。 不能必然认为需求不足一定都是中短期的周期性问题，更不能认为拉长时间以后需求不足会自我治 愈。对需求不足的理解至少需要分为经济发展阶段、诱因、市场失灵和政策应对不足四个层面，其中 市场失灵是理解需求不足的重点，决定了如何合理选择应对政策。 解决需求不足的政策，需要满足三个条件：必须是市场以外、超出市场逻辑的力量，必须是瞄准快变 量的强大力量，必须是能够带来广义信贷增长的力量。充分发力的逆周期货币政策和财政政策，是应 对需求不足的标准且有效的药方，却往往难以被社会公众理解和支持。正因为如此，必须要有高度专 业化、能够避免各种外界干扰，且能够接受业界专家问责的决策机构，才能确保治好需求不足。 —— BY张斌 CF40资深研究员、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长 以下，祝开卷有得。 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debate between demand-side and supply-side economics, emphasizing that both are important but often oversimplified in policy discussions [1][2][4] - It highlights the historical context of Keynesian economics and its application during the Great Depression, suggesting that Keynes' ideas have been misinterpreted over time [4][6][7] - The article critiques modern interpretations of Keynesianism, noting that many contemporary economists have lost sight of the complexities of economic systems, leading to ineffective policies [9][11][12] Group 2 - The rise of supply-side economics in the late 20th century is presented as a reaction to perceived failures of Keynesian policies, with a focus on tax cuts and deregulation [11][12][21] - The article argues that both demand-side and supply-side approaches have failed to address the underlying issues in the U.S. economy, particularly the decline of manufacturing and rising inequality [12][21][22] - It concludes that superficial policy measures, such as tariffs and tax cuts, do not address the foundational elements necessary for a robust economy, leading to ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [22][24]

Economic Situation - The local economy is experiencing a significant downturn, with businesses like tea shops seeing a drastic drop in sales and factories operating at reduced capacity [1] - There is a noticeable lack of consumer demand, leading to a halt in production and a rise in unemployment [4][6] Policy Responses - The central bank and finance ministry have opted for Keynesian policies to stimulate demand, emphasizing the need for government intervention to avoid prolonged high unemployment [6] - The central bank has implemented a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which has led to a positive market response, encouraging investments and consumer spending [11] Banking Sector Challenges - There is a concerning trend of increased bank deposits as residents choose to save rather than spend, which could lead to a vicious cycle of reduced consumption and further economic decline [7] - The banking sector is facing operational difficulties due to low loan demand, impacting their ability to generate profits [7] Monetary Tools - The central bank is utilizing various monetary tools, including interest rate cuts and open market operations, to inject liquidity into the economy and stabilize banking operations [12][14] - The reserve requirement ratio is highlighted as a critical tool for managing the money supply, with potential adjustments having significant implications for market liquidity [14] Long-term Strategies - The central bank is cautious about using unconventional tools like quantitative easing, recognizing the potential long-term risks associated with excessive liquidity [17] - It is acknowledged that while monetary policy can address immediate liquidity issues, fiscal policy is essential for directly boosting consumer demand and economic activity [20]

Group 1: Economic Phases - The report divides West Germany's fiscal history from 1945 to 1990 into three phases: 1) 1945-1965 Post-war Reconstruction; 2) 1966-1980 Global Stagflation; 3) 1981-1990 Industrial Transformation[3] - The post-war reconstruction period (1945-1965) is characterized by debt reduction and economic miracles, driven by currency reform and the Marshall Plan, which injected approximately $1.6 billion into West Germany[7][31] - The global stagflation period (1966-1980) saw West Germany facing growth bottlenecks, transitioning from fiscal surplus to deficit, with government leverage increasing from 8% in 1970 to 15% in 1980[9][10] Group 2: Key Economic Policies - The currency reform in 1948 replaced 93.5% of the old currency, stabilizing the economy and eliminating hyperinflation risks[7][28] - The Marshall Plan provided crucial support for coal, steel, and infrastructure, helping West Germany's industrial production index rise from around 20 to nearly 90 by 1949[31][37] - The introduction of supply-side reforms in 1982 under Chancellor Helmut Kohl aimed to restructure the economy, reduce social welfare, and promote re-industrialization[11][12] Group 3: Economic Challenges - The steel crisis during the stagflation period highlighted structural weaknesses in West Germany's economy, leading to high unemployment and a decline in international competitiveness[10] - The government faced challenges in managing inflation and unemployment, with the unemployment rate fluctuating significantly during the 1970s[10][30] - The transition from demand-side management to supply-side reforms marked a significant shift in economic policy, reflecting the need for structural adjustments[11][12]

Group 1 - Debt is a "commitment to deliver currency," influenced by psychological expectations and short-term fluctuations, making it difficult to control [1] - The quantity of money in modern economies is primarily determined by central bank monetary policy [1][2] - A debt crisis becomes inevitable when debt commitments exceed the available currency [2] Group 2 - Central banks face two distinct choices that significantly impact long-term wealth: maintaining "hard" currency or adopting "soft" currency policies [3][4] - A "hard" currency approach involves limiting money supply to hard assets, which can ensure wealth preservation but may lead to widespread defaults and deflationary recessions [5][6][7] - A "soft" currency approach allows for large-scale money printing to address crises, providing liquidity to markets but resulting in currency and debt devaluation [8][9][10] Group 3 - Historical patterns show that central banks often choose to print money and devalue currency to avoid severe market disruptions and economic downturns [11][12][13] - This approach, while temporarily effective, leads to long-term consequences such as reduced purchasing power and increased wealth inequality [18][20][30] Group 4 - The long-term effects of money printing include a decrease in the purchasing power of currency, impacting middle-class savers and low-risk investors [20][22][23] - Wealth concentration increases as asset prices rise disproportionately, benefiting the wealthy while leaving ordinary savers behind [30][32][36] Group 5 - The concept of "antibiotic resistance" applies to monetary policy, where over-reliance on money printing diminishes its effectiveness in addressing economic crises [37][39][40] - In long-term debt cycles, the ability to stimulate the economy through liquidity injections becomes limited as debt levels reach unsustainable limits [41][42][45] Group 6 - The current situation suggests a high probability of significant debt restructuring or monetization in the coming years if long-term debt issues are not addressed [49][50] - The myth of government bonds as risk-free assets may be challenged as currency devaluation impacts real wealth storage [52][53] Group 7 - Historical data indicates that during periods of currency devaluation and debt reduction, assets like gold, commodities, and equities tend to perform well [54][55] - The distinction between nominal wealth growth and real purchasing power stability is crucial, as inflation can erode the value of perceived wealth [56][57]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "stagflation" as a significant economic challenge, highlighting its origins and implications for economic policy [1][3][5] - It outlines the historical context of stagflation, particularly during the 1970s in the United States, where inflation and unemployment rose simultaneously, creating a complex economic environment [3][14] - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of economic downturns, suggesting that stagflation often initiates periods of economic recession [5][19] Group 2 - The piece explains how Keynesian economics was initially embraced by the U.S. government to stimulate the economy, but ultimately led to stagflation due to excessive money supply and government spending [7][11] - It details the political pressures faced by U.S. presidents, who often prioritized short-term economic relief over long-term stability, exacerbating stagflation [11][14] - The article highlights the role of monetary policy in managing stagflation, particularly the contrasting approaches of different administrations, such as Nixon's expansionary policies versus Reagan's tightening measures [16][17] Group 3 - The narrative illustrates the impact of external factors, such as oil crises, on the U.S. economy, which intensified stagflation and challenged policymakers [14][19] - It discusses the importance of restoring public confidence in currency and the economy as a means to combat stagflation, emphasizing the need for decisive action from leadership [17][19] - The article concludes by reflecting on the lessons learned from past stagflation experiences, suggesting that a combination of tight monetary policy and structural reforms may be necessary to address similar challenges in the future [19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The high demand for the US dollar as a global reserve currency leads to its overvaluation, which suppresses the competitiveness of the US manufacturing sector and results in long-term trade deficits [1][2] - The Chinese stock market performs well despite slowing economic growth and low inflation, attributed to phase-specific monetary policy easing, optimistic policy expectations, and liquidity in the market [1][4] - A comprehensive macroeconomic analysis should integrate both financial and real perspectives, focusing on monetary supply, interest rates, capital market dynamics, production capacity, employment, and consumer demand [1][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Currency and Economic Policy - The preference for a strong or weak dollar in the US depends on economic policy goals, such as promoting exports or attracting capital [2] - The relationship between financial cycles and real economic cycles is crucial for macroeconomic regulation, with financial cycles often requiring looser fiscal policies in their later stages [3][23] Section 2: Chinese Stock Market Dynamics - The positive performance of the Chinese stock market can be understood through various lenses, including liquidity, investor confidence, and policy expectations, despite a weak fundamental backdrop [4][30] Section 3: Financial and Real Economic Perspectives - A dual perspective on macroeconomics, considering both financial and real aspects, is essential for accurate predictions and targeted policy recommendations [5][12] - The interaction between financial markets and the real economy is significant, as evidenced by the 2008 financial crisis, which highlighted the risks of neglecting this relationship [7][8][15] Section 4: Unique Aspects of Chinese Fiscal Policy - China's fiscal policy is characterized by its complexity, involving multiple budgets and a variety of quasi-fiscal tools that allow for flexible macroeconomic adjustments [18][19] Section 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The US government debt is projected to reach 140% of GDP in ten years, raising concerns about sustainability, especially in the context of persistent inflation [26]

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that addressing the consumption shortfall is essential for economic growth, highlighting the need for structural changes rather than mere consumption stimulation [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - July CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking a continuous expansion for three months [2]. - July PPI remained at -3.6%, indicating a stabilization in price levels, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in CPI reflecting marginal economic improvement [2]. Consumption and Investment Dynamics - The article argues that consumption-driven economic growth is less effective than investment-driven growth, as consumer preferences and expectations are not easily altered by stimulus policies [3]. - It points out that consumer behavior is influenced by income stability and future expectations, which are not addressed by simple consumption incentives [3]. Policy Recommendations - To enhance economic stability, the article suggests reforming social security and healthcare systems to alleviate public concerns about future uncertainties [4]. - It advocates for tax reforms related to social security contributions and the development of personal pension systems to improve disposable income and consumption patterns [4]. Market and Economic Environment - The article calls for market-oriented reforms to create a unified national market, allowing for greater freedom and flexibility for market participants [5]. - It posits that a supportive economic governance framework, focused on public services, will foster a competitive environment that encourages innovation and collective economic growth [5].

Group 1 - The current economic push requires addressing consumption shortcomings as a crucial factor for growth [1] - July's CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0%, with core CPI rising 0.8%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economy [1] - PPI remained unchanged at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting the effectiveness of recent anti-involution measures [1] Group 2 - Economic stimulus policies rarely focus on consumption due to the lack of direct correlation between policy and consumer preferences [2] - Stimulating consumption does not effectively change consumer preferences or demand elasticity, leading to potential future demand shortages [2] - The need to shift focus from traditional investment-driven growth to creating a consumption-friendly institutional environment is emphasized [2] Group 3 - Urgent reforms in social security and healthcare are necessary to stabilize public confidence in future income and security [3] - Proposals include tax reforms for social security fees and enhancing personal pension systems to address social security gaps [3] - Market-oriented reforms and the establishment of a unified national market are essential for fostering innovation and improving investment returns [3] Group 4 - These reforms will significantly alter economic demand elasticity, making consumption a true driver of economic growth [4] - The focus should shift from utilitarian approaches to a governance model centered on public service, fostering fair competition [4] - Collaborative efforts among market participants will lead to collective wisdom, propelling economic advancement [4]