280亿关税背后，谁的钱包正在被掏空？真相绝了！ "关税涨到280亿？老美欢呼雀跃，觉得这波赢麻了！ 可你别急，钱从谁口袋里哗哗流走？ 根本不是你想象的那样！ 高盛最新报告实锤：十月起，超六成成本直接转嫁到消费者头上！ 衣服电器全面涨价，工资却不动静…… 所以这关税大战，到底打了谁的脸？" 这几个月，美国关税数字飙得比火箭还猛，七月直接冲到280亿美元，同比暴涨273%！白宫那头掌声雷动，好像赢了全世界一样。 但你稍微扒开这数据的华丽外衣，往里瞅一眼—— 咦？说好的"外国买单"呢？怎么最后账全都算到了自己人头上？！ 企业不扛价，老百姓成"接盘侠" 财政部的规矩明明白白：进口商先交税。 但纽约联储可不惯着——调查显示，只有25%的企业愿意自己消化成本，其余75%统统选择涨价！ 啥意思？你买的衣服、电器、日用品……甚至汽车零件，价格标签悄悄换了数字。 高盛六月统计还显示企业承担了64%的关税成本，可一到十月，剧情彻底反转——消费者扛67%！ 不信你去超市转一圈：鞋帽涨37%，家电紧跟其后。你的钱包，正在默默流泪。 真正的输家根本不是外国厂商 有人说，"关税是薅外国羊毛"？别天真了！ 劳工统计局数据啪啪打脸——进口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The further decline of US Treasury yields before September may be primarily driven by weaker economic data leading to higher expectations of interest rate cuts, or by the "see - saw effect" triggered by the weakness of other assets. The 10 - year yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 4.00 - 4.30%, but inflation and the "Big and Beautiful" Act may impede the decline of long - term yields [4][14]. - In the two - week period from July 18 to August 1, 2025, affected by the US July non - farm payroll report, global investors' risk - aversion increased, resulting in a double - kill situation in the US stock and bond markets. Different asset classes showed various trends, including significant declines in US and UK government bond yields, a new high in the Japanese stock market, a slump in the US stock market, an upward trend in the coking coal index, a decline in Chicago agricultural product futures prices, and a depreciation of the ruble and the euro [5][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. What Conditions are Needed for the Further Decline of US Treasury Yields? - **Monetary Policy**: At the July FOMC meeting, the interest rate and other monetary policies remained at the June level, in line with market expectations. Waller and Bowman voted against interest rate cuts, citing signs of weakness in the labor market, and Kugler, who was set to leave early, did not attend or vote. Kugler's early departure may increase Trump's influence on the Fed and lead to more divided views within the Fed [1][10]. - **Growth**: Q2 GDP showed a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.0%, but the main drivers were a decline in imports and accelerated consumer spending. Private consumption and investment weakened, with PDFP growing by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter, lower than the 1.9% in Q1 [2][10]. - **Inflation**: In June, inflationary pressures emerged, with CPI at 2.7%, core CPI at 2.9%, PCE at 2.6%, and core PCE at 2.8%, all reaching the highest levels since March [2][10]. - **Employment**: In July, the ADP employment figure rebounded unexpectedly, but the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, which greatly disrupted the interest rate market expectations, causing the 1 - year yield to decline by about 17bp on August 1 [2][11]. - **Policy Stance**: Some Fed presidents still recognize the resilience of the economy and employment and maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, denying the risk of recession and affirming the risk of stagflation [3][12]. 2. Bi - weekly Overseas Macro - analysis - **Interest Rates**: In the past two weeks, US Treasury yields declined significantly, with the 1 - year and 10 - year yields both dropping 21bp to 3.87% and 4.23% respectively. Affected by US Treasuries, UK government bond yields also declined on August 1, increasing investors' risk - aversion [5][16]. - **Equities**: The Japanese stock market reached a new high, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 2.46% in the past two weeks, driven by the US - Japan trade agreement on July 23. However, trading volume was low in July. The US stock market slumped after the release of the July non - farm payroll report, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2.29% on the night of the report release [17]. - **Commodities**: The coking coal index rose 12.07% in the past two weeks after the central government emphasized governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. Chicago agricultural product futures prices fell across the board, pressured by high expectations of a bumper US autumn harvest [18]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The ruble depreciated by 3.44% in the past two weeks after the Russian central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points on July 25. The euro fell 1.24% due to the impact of the US - EU trade agreement and a decline in investor confidence [19]. 3. Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts, including the bi - weekly fluctuations of global major economies' government bond yields, global major stock indices, major commodities, and global major foreign exchange rates (against the RMB), as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, and the yield curves and inflation trends of US, Japanese, and German government bonds [24][28][30][32][35][41][45].