光大期货表示，炼厂冬储政策逐渐落地，百川盈孚预计，综合炼厂产能利用率、库存率以及成本利润情 况，今年冬储价格大概率会下跌至近五年较低水平，预测冬储沥青价格在2800-2900元/吨。近期沥青价 格在3000元/吨左右反复震荡，暂时有一定支撑，但也不排除油价重心继续下移之下拖累沥青价格下 跌，短期对盘面仍以低位震荡的观点对待，关注冬储释放情况。 建信期货分析称，扬子石化短暂复产后暂未有继续生产沥青的计划，镇海炼化以、东明石化和胜星石化 均有计划复产沥青，预计沥青装置开工率将出现小幅反弹。需求端冷空气再度影响我国大部分地区，东 北西北道路需求已经停滞，但山东等地区仍有赶工需求，预计需求稳定。油价暂无支撑，沥青供需两 弱，短期市场偏谨慎，观望为主。 12月11日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，沥青期货主力合约开盘报2954.00元/吨，今日盘中高位 震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沥青主力最高触及2997.00元，下方探低2943.00元，涨幅达1.81%。 目前来看，沥青行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沥青后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 新湖期货指出，山东市场部分品牌推涨情绪明显，市场挺价氛围初步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures prices are experiencing a continuous decline due to dual pressures from costs and demand, with oversupply expectations weakening cost support from international crude oil prices and a decrease in demand as northern regions conclude their construction activities [1][3][9]. Group 1: Cost Factors - The expectation of oversupply has led to a downward shift in international crude oil prices, reducing cost support for asphalt [1][2]. - As of November 30, the average capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 34.0%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The asphalt production in November is estimated at 2.23 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% [3]. Group 2: Demand Factors - With the temperature dropping, the construction demand in northern regions is tapering off, leading to intensified competition in the spot market for limited demand [1][6]. - The overall demand is expected to decline as northern regions weaken while southern regions maintain relatively stable demand [6][9]. - As of December 1, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample plants in China was 626,000 tons, a decrease of 14.01% from the end of October [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The asphalt market is characterized by low price fluctuations and weak supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on the winter storage market [8][9]. - The current market prices for 70 asphalt in various regions are reported as follows: Shandong and Hebei at 2960-2970 CNY/ton, Guangdong at 3030 CNY/ton, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang at 3150-3220 CNY/ton [8]. - There are differing opinions on the winter storage market, with some believing that refinery profit conditions may allow for larger storage volumes than last year, while others anticipate constraints due to weak international crude oil prices and subdued market demand expectations [8][9].