Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market may oscillate due to the current weak supply - demand situation and positive future expectations [6] - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a state of temporary supply - demand weakness, with industrial inventory accumulating, but domestic macro - control may gradually repair consumption expectations [6] - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading rhythm and risks [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - The Shanghai copper main contract showed a slightly stronger weekly oscillation, with a weekly increase of 3.95% and an amplitude of 4.09%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 87,720 yuan/ton [6] - Internationally, the US federal government "shutdown" may lead to the suspension of the food - stamp program in November, affecting 42 million low - income people. Domestically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [6] - Fundamentally, copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and the ore price is firm. Domestic smelting capacity has decreased due to many maintenance operations and tight raw - material supply, and refined - copper supply has slightly tightened. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, and currently, downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid demand and are highly watchful [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of October 24, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,685 yuan/ton. The main - contract price was 87,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,330 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 275,672 lots, a week - on - week increase of 60,099 lots [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of October 24, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 86,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 690 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [15] - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 24,968 lots, a decrease of 14,125 lots from last week [24] 3. Option Market - As of October 24, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main - contract at - the - money option fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.7873, a week - on - week increase of 0.0388 [29] 4. Upstream Situation - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: The quotes of upstream copper mines have strengthened, and the processing fees of blister copper have weakened. As of the latest data this week, the quote of copper concentrate in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 76,710 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 520 yuan/ton. The processing fee of southern blister copper this week was 900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23% and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 3,425.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 483.43 yuan/ton [36] - **Global Production and Inventories**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 468,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,000 tons [41] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined - Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined - Copper Imports**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 1,608.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,053.96 yuan/ton [50][51] - **Social Inventories**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 300 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 1,917 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,778 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 189,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons [54] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95% and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - **Applications**: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.54% and 13.99% respectively. As of September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% respectively [64] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of September 2025, the cumulative completed investment in real - estate development was 6.770571 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 381.88702 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.37% [71] 7. Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance of refined copper showed an oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 256,500 tons [76][77]

供给收敛需求提振，沪铜或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 「2025.10.10」 沪铜市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为+3.37%，振幅4.19%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价85910元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，矿业巨头自由港披露，其旗下印尼Grasberg矿区遭遇泥石流事故，造成人员伤亡，并且对该矿区 的开采设施造成不同程度损坏，受此影响该矿区暂停营运。国内方面，国家统计局公布，9月中国制造业PMI为49.8%，环 比上升0.4个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快。基本面矿端，TC 费用持续运行于负值区间，铜矿供给受海外矿区停工影响，令原本紧缺的供给再度收紧。供给端，在原料趋紧的背景下， 冶炼厂产能预计将有所受限，加之原料成本的上涨、冶炼副产品硫酸价格的回落，侵蚀冶炼厂利润，生产意愿亦将有所回 落，国内精铜供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is entering a new stage with slowing supply growth, steady demand recovery, and positive consumption expectations, and the fundamental support is gradually strengthening. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract showed a volatile trend, with a weekly increase or decrease of - 0.28% and an amplitude of 1.27%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 77,220 yuan/ton [4]. - **International News**: Trump relaxed automobile tariff policies, and the US reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country, while Europe was not actively involved in tariff issues [4]. - **Domestic News**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued the second batch of 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds this year to support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones, and urged the review and payment of allocated funds [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate processing fee has continued to decline, indicating tight supply at the mine end. The import of US scrap copper has stagnated due to high tariffs, and the supply of smelting raw materials is generally tight. Supply growth may slow down slightly, and the increase in domestic refined copper supply may be limited. The downstream copper processing开工率 is expected to remain high, and social inventory is accelerating to decline [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: This week, Shanghai copper contracts weakened, and the spot premium increased. As of April 30, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 715 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 77,220 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 670 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 168,554 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,501 lots [5][9]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, spot prices weakened. As of April 30, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 77,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 195 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Premium and Position**: The CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper increased, and the net long position of the top 20 increased. As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 113 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton, and the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 3,160 lots, an increase of 17,787 lots compared with last week [17][21]. 3.3 Option Market - The short - term implied volatility of at - the - money Shanghai copper options may converge. As of April 30, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the main at - the - money option contract of Shanghai copper fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of option open interest was 1.2239, a week - on - week increase of 0.186 [22][26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Quotes and Processing Fees**: The quotes of upstream copper mines and the processing fees of blister copper weakened. As of the latest data, the quote of copper concentrate in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton, and the processing fee of southern blister copper was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 400 yuan/ton [27][29]. - **Imports and Price Difference**: The import volume of copper ore decreased slightly, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper widened slightly. As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3939 million tons, an increase of 211,000 tons from February, a growth rate of 9.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. As of the latest data, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 970.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 945 yuan/ton [30][34]. - **Production and Inventory**: Global copper mine production decreased, and port inventory increased. As of February 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.803 million tons, a decrease of 117,000 tons from January, a decline of 6.09%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.9%, an increase of 2.9% from January. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 750,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125,000 tons [35][39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Supply - Refined Copper**: Domestic production increased, and the global capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of March 2025, the monthly production of refined copper was 1.248 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from December, a growth rate of 0.48%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.81%. As of February 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from January, a decline of 7.95%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.1%, an increase of 1% from January [40][43]. - **Supply - Import**: The import of refined copper increased, and the import profit and loss decreased slightly. As of March 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 354,275.469 tons, an increase of 49,142.39 tons from February, a growth rate of 16.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. As of the latest data, the import profit and loss amount was 394.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 632.52 yuan/ton [46][51]. - **Supply - Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly. As of the latest data, the total LME inventory decreased by 925 tons compared with last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 6,240 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 16,799 tons. The total social inventory was 418,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons [52][55]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Demand - Copper Products**: Production decreased, and imports increased month - on - month. As of March 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1252 million tons, a decrease of 147,600 tons from December, a decline of 6.49%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 470,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from February, a growth rate of 11.9%, and a year - on - year decline of 0% [58][62]. - **Application - Power and Home Appliances**: Power grid investment increased year - on - year, and the production of mainstream home appliances varied. As of March 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid was - 2.5% and 24.8% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 11.9%, - 4.3%, - 12.1%, and - 2.4% year - on - year respectively [64][68]. - **Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: Real estate investment decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative production of integrated circuits increased year - on - year and month - on - month. As of March 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 199.041692 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 85.68%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 10,946,586.3 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 42.68% [70][74]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of February 2025, the global refined copper supply was in a state of surplus, with a monthly surplus of 61,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of February 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 75,900 tons [76][80].