1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of overseas copper are strong, but there are uncertainties in the macro - environment, and copper prices will continue to fluctuate. The strength analysis is neutral, with a price range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The copper spot is tight, and low domestic and falling LME inventories support near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances such as US tariff policies and the Middle - East situation affect investor sentiment, leading to low volatility in copper prices in four markets. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are decreasing, but the spot premium is narrowing. In June, the off - season characteristics are apparent in consumption, with reduced grid orders and weak consumption in industries like real estate, infrastructure, home decoration, and home appliances. However, lower prices prompt downstream and end - users to buy on dips, reducing inventories. On the supply side, copper concentrate supply is tight, spot processing fees are weakening, and secondary copper supply is short, increasing the probability of smelter production cuts or shutdowns. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, due to the lack of logical resonance between the macro and micro levels, prices are expected to remain volatile. With low domestic and overseas inventories, there is upward potential when copper prices are low. For spread trading, it is recommended to hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets and maintain term - spread long positions in Shanghai copper futures [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: Copper price volatility in four markets remains weak, with COMEX copper price volatility around 17% and LME copper price volatility around 7% [12]. - Term Spread: The B - structure of Shanghai copper term spreads is narrowing, with the spread between Shanghai copper contracts 06 - 07 rising from 80 yuan/ton on June 6th to 340 yuan/ton on June 13th. The LME copper spot premium is expanding, with the LME 0 - 3 spread increasing from a premium of 69.84 US dollars/ton to 73.41 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper is narrowing [16]. - Position: Shanghai copper and COMEX copper positions are decreasing, with Shanghai copper positions reducing by 17,600 lots to 551,900 lots. LME copper and international copper positions are increasing [17]. - Funds and Industry Positions: The net long positions of non - commercial traders in CFTC copper are increasing, rising from 24,094 lots on June 3rd to 26,351 lots on June 10th [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium is narrowing, dropping from a premium of 75 yuan/ton on June 6th to 35 yuan/ton on June 13th. The Yangshan Port copper premium is weakening, and the Southeast Asian premium is falling [28]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories are falling, from 508,300 tons on June 5th to 491,300 tons on June 12th. Domestic social inventories are decreasing, and bonded - area inventories are rising. COMEX inventories are increasing, and LME copper inventories are falling [34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper contract 07 is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and the LME copper position - to - inventory ratio is rising rapidly, indicating tight overseas spot supplies [35]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Supply is increasing, with China's copper concentrate imports in April 2025 reaching 2.9244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. Port inventories are rising, but processing fees are weakening, with the spot TC at - 44.75 US dollars/ton on June 13th [38]. - Secondary Copper: Imports are decreasing year - on - year, and domestic production is also significantly down year - on - year. The premium between refined and secondary copper is narrowing, and import profitability is expanding [41][46]. - Blister Copper: Imports are increasing, and processing fees are at a low level. In April, imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, processing fees were at a historically low level [50]. - Refined Copper: Production is increasing more than expected, with May's output at 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. Imports are decreasing, and with the narrowing of import losses and previous export profitability, domestic supplies may be shipped overseas [55]. 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and that of copper plates and foils was at a neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable slightly rebounded in the week of June 12th [58]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees are falling. Processing fees for copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils are also weakening [63]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [64]. - Finished - Product Inventory: Copper rod finished - product inventories are rising, and wire and cable finished - product inventories are increasing. In May, copper rod finished - product inventories were at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube finished - product inventories were at a relatively low level [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Domestic copper consumption is performing well. From January to May, cumulative actual consumption was 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and apparent consumption was 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important drivers of copper consumption, with grid investment growing rapidly [72]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.251 million units, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [74].