新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场供需两端格局明显 铜价维持震荡格局 期货行情： 2026-02-10，沪铜主力合约开于 101740元/吨，收于 101560元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.27%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 101,660元/吨，收于 101,730 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.13%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日沪铜现货报价区间为贴水40至升水50元/吨，均价升水5元/吨，较前日下跌30元/吨。主力合约2602 早盘冲高回落，收盘报101210元/吨。市场采销情绪双降，上海地区销售情绪指数2.65，采购指数2.55。持货商报价 分化，其中优质品牌因货源紧张报价坚挺，平水铜及非注册品牌则贴水扩大成交。进口维持亏损，隔月价差在350-450 元/吨。展望后市，随着进口货源到港与下游备货结束，市场呈现供需两淡局面。持货商部分惜售待交割，可流通 资源有限，而买方接货意愿低迷，预计现货升水将继续承压。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，美国总统特朗普周二在接受采访时表示，若与伊朗的谈判失败，他正考虑向中东再派遣一个航母打击 群，以为可能的军事行动做准备。美国与伊朗上周五在阿曼重启谈 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-10 下游企业备货基本结束 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 2026-02-09，沪铜主力合约开于 101000元/吨，收于 101840元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.74%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 101,740元/吨，收于 102,450 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.93%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货报价在贴水30元至升水100元/吨之间，均价升水35元/吨，较前日小幅收窄。期铜主 力合约高开后震荡回落，日内波动于101,300-102,120元/吨区间。市场交投情绪分化，销售情绪指数微升，而采购 情绪略有回落。早间平水铜报价以贴水为主，部分优质品牌如金川、贵溪因货源紧张维持较高升水。至第二交易 时段，持货商普遍挺价，湿法及非注册铜以贴水成交。进口窗口此前开启带来的货源正逐步到港，市场供应预期 趋于宽松。同时，随着春节临近，下游企业备货基本结束，实际采购需求减弱。综合来看，在供应增加而需求转 淡的背景下，预计今日现货升贴水将承压下行。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，美国就业增长数据预计将出现放缓， ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 沪铜市场周报 供给略减需求谨慎，多空分歧铜价震荡 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为+2.1%，振幅13.31%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价103170元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储1月议息会议按下暂停键，维持利率在3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支持降息25个基点；鲍 威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话，并表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政 策，建议继任者远离政治。国内方面，国务院办公厅印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，从激发重点领域发展 活力、培育潜力领域发展动能、加强支持保障三方面提出12条政策举措。方案划出了交通、家政、网络视听、旅居、汽车 后市场、入境消费这些重点服务消费领域。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC现货指数继续下行，铜矿供给仍偏紧，加之地缘政治 方面的影响，原料成本支撑逻 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-22，沪铜主力合约开于 100550元/吨，收于 100700元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.57%，昨日夜盘 沪铜主力合约开于 99，800元/吨，收于 100，270 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.43%。 现货情况： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM1#电解铜现货对当月合约报价贴水260至80元/吨，均价贴水170元/吨，较前一日 小幅上涨10元/吨。现货价格区间为99740-100400元/吨。早盘期铜呈"W"型震荡走势，盘中低点探至 99940元/吨，高点触及100780元/吨，最终收于100270元/吨。市场成交逐步回暖，好铜及平水铜报价有 所调整，部分稀缺湿法货源报价坚挺。下游采购情绪回升，持货商挺价意愿增强，预计明日现货报价将 保持相对稳定。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入 权"。特朗普还威胁称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强 烈报复"。经济数据 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the copper market has cooled down. The copper price is expected to turn into a range - bound pattern to balance supply and demand in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 98,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 12,400 - 13,300 US dollars/ton. The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness, inventory changes, and downstream demand. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to decline, and smelting revenue still relies on by - product sulfuric acid. The processing fee of crude copper remains high. There are labor strikes at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper - gold mine, and Panama plans to decide on the future of the Cobre Panama copper mine by June. The copper production of Luoyang Molybdenum and Ivanhoe Mines in Q4 2025 met expectations. [11] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory of SHFE increased by 33,000 tons to 213,000 tons, LME increased by 6,000 tons to 144,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 19,000 tons to 489,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. [11] - Import and Export: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. [11] - Demand: The copper price remains high, and downstream buyers purchase on dips. The expected increase in fixed - asset investment of the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, while that of cables declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, the substitution of scrap copper remained small, and the operating rate of scrap copper rods only slightly rebounded. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The copper price rose first and then fell. The SHFE copper main contract fell 0.8% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.01% to 12,822.5 US dollars/ton. [18] - Spot Price: Details of spot prices of various copper products such as Yangtze River non - ferrous price, Guangdong Nanhai price, and prices of different copper materials are provided. [20] - Premiums and Discounts: The domestic copper spot basis weakened after the contract change, and on Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the futures. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 61.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. [25] - Market Structure: Relevant figures of SHFE and LME copper market structure are presented. [27] 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate declined to - 46.5 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue. [32] - Import - Export Ratio: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only relevant figures are provided. [34] - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed. [37] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased, and the copper warrant quantity increased by 49,201 tons to 160,417 tons. LME inventory increased, mainly from Asian warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. [40][43][46] 4. Supply Side - Production: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper production in December 2025 increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper production in November 2025 was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.80%. [50] - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. Other import and export data of copper products such as anode copper, refined copper, and recycled copper are also provided. [53][56] 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: The global electrolytic copper consumption is mainly in power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, it is mainly in construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc. [72] - PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in December 2025 strengthened slightly, and Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvement in Japan and the UK, and weakening in the euro area, the US, and India. [75] - Downstream Industry Output: In November 2025, the output of some downstream copper industries such as automobiles, freezers, and washing machines increased year - on - year, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The cumulative output from January to November also showed different trends. [78] - Real Estate Data: In November 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion, and the decline rates widened. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in November. [80] - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: The operating rates of different downstream copper enterprises such as copper rod, copper wire, and copper tube enterprises showed different trends in December 2025 and are expected to change in January 2026. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, the scrap copper rod operating rate slightly recovered, the cable operating rate continued to decline, and the copper strip operating rate slightly rebounded. [83][95][98] - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, and the refined - scrap copper price spread on Friday was reported at 3,391 yuan/ton. [103] 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 76,102 to 1,287,180 lots (bilateral), with the near - month 2602 contract holding 125,612 lots (bilateral). [108] - Foreign Fund Positions: As of January 13, CFTC funds remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 9). [111]

金瑞期货分析称，宏观方面，特朗普称暂缓对关键矿产征税，金属市场有所回落。基本面上，智利 Mantoverde铜矿出现罢工，厄瓜多尔Mirador铜矿二期扩产延期，铜矿紧张矛盾仍存。进出口方面，未 来国内淡季，或仍保持对外出口。消费端，近期下游消费表现仍走弱，减停产情况增加。国内平衡保持 较多过剩。海外方面，CL价差收窄，需持续观察美国进口量，可能影响未来紧张预期。展望后市，暂 缓关税令市场有所降温，但对铜影响可能不大，CL价差未出现明显变化。因此，预期的紧张维持尚未 扭转和证伪看待，铜价总体的偏强震荡可能尚未结束。 广州期货指出，国内央行下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，并强调今年降准降息还有一 定空间，提振市场信心。产业面，铜市紧原料叙事逻辑持续，当前美国已琐死全球一半以上铜库存，非 美市场整体现货流通相对有限，警惕春节前后下游可能的补库行为或引发库存的去化，从而给价格带来 新的上涨驱动，近期LME库存再次转为下降，关注持续性，铜价维持易涨难跌态势。主力合约波动参 考10.1-10.5万。 1月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪铜期货主力合约开盘报103030.00元/吨，今日盘 ...

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 87,400 CNY per ton, showing a discount of 30 CNY per ton compared to the futures main price of 87,430 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 87,430 CNY per ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.41%, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots [2] - The LME executive indicated that due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. copper tariffs, COMEX copper prices are expected to maintain a premium over LME prices for the next 18 months [3] Market Overview - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease in copper futures warehouse receipts, down by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons on November 27, with a cumulative decline of 19,110 tons over the past week, representing a 34.76% drop [3] - In terms of industrial performance, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in China fell by 5.5% year-on-year in October [4] - Freeport's report suggests that copper mine production is expected to remain stable next year, aligning with market expectations, while smelting output is anticipated to decline [4] Consumption and Pricing Dynamics - Recent feedback from downstream sectors indicates that after a drop in copper prices, consumption has shown some improvement, although the extent and sustainability of this recovery remain uncertain [4] - The domestic market has not yet shown significant inventory depletion, and there are expectations of continued export arrangements [4] - The recent macroeconomic environment has led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which may influence copper pricing dynamics in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing slight fluctuations with a minor increase of 0.09% in closing prices, amid easing macroeconomic sentiments and ongoing concerns regarding supply tightness from mining sources [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Copper prices have shown weak fluctuations recently, with a slight retreat from previous high levels, while downstream demand has shown some improvement [1] - Current domestic copper concentrate spot processing fees are hovering around -41 USD per dry ton, with market participants awaiting the results of the Benchmark year-end negotiations [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Tony Wenas, CEO of Freeport Indonesia, announced plans to produce 478,000 tons of cathode copper and 26 tons of gold by 2026, which is lower than the initial targets of approximately 700,000 tons of copper and 45 tons of gold due to ongoing recovery work from a mudslide incident [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent macroeconomic drivers are becoming more stable, and the fundamental contradictions in the copper market are not significant at the moment, although consumption performance remains weak [1] - It is expected that the short-term price focus will maintain a high-level fluctuation, as the market has not yet realized the inventory reduction caused by mining issues [1]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the support from mine - end interference at the lower end, but the demand side lacks a strong performance. The price is likely to fluctuate between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton. Entities can arrange buy or sell hedging based on this range. Arbitrage should be postponed, and the option strategy is short put [7]. Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 13, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 87,100 yuan/ton and closed at 87,550 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session opened at 87,650 yuan/ton and closed at 87,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at 87,040 - 87,380 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 50 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The copper price increase curbed downstream procurement. It is expected that the spot discount will not widen further near the delivery, and today's trading will center around par [2]. - **Important Information**: The US October CPI report was not released as scheduled. The 9 - month employment report may show only new employment data. Some Fed officials are cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation above the 2% target [3]. Mine End Hudbay Minerals maintained its 2025 copper and gold production guidance. It expects copper production to be near the lower limit of 117,000 - 149,000 pounds and gold production near the lower limit of 247,500 - 308,000 ounces. The company lowered the full - year comprehensive cash cost guidance for copper [4]. Smelting and Import Taseko Mines' third - quarter revenue was 174 million Canadian dollars. The core Gibraltar mine increased copper production, with improved grade and recovery rate, and reduced C1 cost. The Arizona Florence Copper project is about to produce the first batch of cathode copper [5]. Consumption In October, China's non - ferrous metal industry prosperity index was 31.8, up 1.4 points from the previous month, remaining in the lower - middle of the "normal" range. The leading index and the coincident index also increased [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts remained at 136,175 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 131 tons to 43,957 tons. On November 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 201,100 tons, up 5,200 tons from the previous week [6]. Price Table Data The report provides data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai - London ratio for different time points from October 15, 2025, to November 14, 2025 [25][26][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the latest data on copper fundamentals, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, and spreads, and also provides macro and industry news to help understand the current situation of the copper market. The copper trend intensity is rated as neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,960, with a daily decline of 0.85%, and the night - session closing price was 87,270, with a decline of 0.78%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,930, down 1.44% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 428,404, an increase of 81,170 from the previous day, and the open interest was 620,126, an increase of 2,982. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 35,174, an increase of 6,044, and the open interest was 333,000, an increase of 5,160 [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 37,437, an increase of 1,692, and the LME Copper inventory was 134,950, a decrease of 400. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 10.54%, a decrease of 0.30% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 19.66, a decrease of 0.12 from the previous day. The Shanghai Copper spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 55, an increase of 5 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Donald Trump in Busan, and the China - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on three aspects. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2% [1]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral International to export copper concentrates. US President Donald Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelters. Anglo American's Q3 copper production was 184,000 tons, up from 181,000 tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% to 526,000 tons. Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% due to lower ore grades. Chile's ENAMI obtained an environmental permit for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter that will process up to 850,000 tons of copper concentrates and produce up to 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].