1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Sell put options 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are oscillating between geopolitical games and fundamental support. Tightness at the mine end and deteriorating smelting profits provide bottom support, but macro uncertainties limit the upside. The unexpected reduction of domestic social inventories shows the resilience of domestic demand. It is recommended to maintain an interval operation strategy next week, with the main Shanghai copper contract focusing on the operating range of 91,000 - 97,500 yuan/ton, and mainly conduct buy hedging on dips. Spot enterprises are advised to purchase as needed, avoid chasing high prices, and lock in forward supplies when the import window opens [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 31, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 96,100 yuan/ton and closed at 95,340 yuan/ton, a -0.44% change from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 95,730 yuan/ton and closed at 96,760 yuan/ton, a 1.28% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - Yesterday morning, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2604 oscillated in a narrow range between 95,310 - 95,890 yuan/ton and closed at 95,440 yuan/ton. The monthly spread and import profit and loss were both in a small range. The purchasing and selling sentiment of Shanghai electrolytic copper weakened slightly. In the morning, the quotes of suppliers were differentiated, with different discounts for flat - water copper, high - grade copper, and non - registered copper. In the afternoon, the quotes were further lowered due to weak inquiries. The supply of wet - process copper was limited. It is expected that the Shanghai copper spot will recover stage by stage today. Purchasing at the beginning of the month and pre - holiday stocking will boost inquiry and transactions, supporting the convergence of discounts. However, abundant inventory and sufficient supply will still limit the repair range. The narrow brand spread also reflects the consumption - dominated market pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical situation: The US and Iran have released signals of easing. The US is seeking an agreement to end the war, and Iran is willing to end the war on the premise that its demands are met, but currently, no formal negotiation has started [3]. - Mine end: The CSPT decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RCs) in the second quarter of 2026. Codelco and Anglo American have obtained approval from the Chilean antitrust regulatory agency to jointly operate the Andina and Los Bronces copper mines. The joint plan is expected to increase the annual output of copper concentrate by 120,000 tons from 2030 to 2051, with a cumulative additional release of 2.7 million tons of copper and an expected additional pre - tax value of at least $5 billion [4]. - Smelting and import: The Canadian federal government and Quebec are taking action to save the Horne Smelter. The Quebec government has proposed legislative amendments to give Glencore more time to meet stricter emission targets, and the federal government is considering Glencore's request for about C$150 million in environmental upgrade financial support [5]. - Consumption: Terminal consumption shows the characteristic of "domestic demand supporting the domestic inventory reduction process well". The actual consumption demand dominates the market, and social inventory is accelerating the reduction. The social inventory in Shanghai is 275,800 tons, a decrease of 45,300 tons from last Thursday. The inventory in Guangdong has also decreased significantly, and the spot has returned to a premium state. The spot market in Shandong is weak, and the consumption in North China has cooled down. Next week, the Shanghai copper spot market will continue the supply - demand game. The supply side has the expectation of a large number of non - registered copper arriving at the port, and the demand side's purchasing rhythm depends on copper prices [6][7]. - Inventory and warrants: LME warrants decreased by 175 tons to 362,425 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warrants decreased by 9,710 tons to 221,261 tons. On March 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 403,100 tons, a decrease of 24,300 tons compared with the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be in a stage of rising supply and demand and accumulating inventory, with an overall positive industry outlook It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change rate of - 2.76%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 101,050 yuan/ton [6] - **International Situation**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The Fed's Beige Book shows an optimistic economic outlook, with most regions expecting slight to moderate economic growth in the coming months [6] - **Domestic Situation**: Affected by the Spring Festival, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, down 0.3 ppts; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 ppts; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 ppts [6] - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate TC spot index is weakening, and the supply of copper ore is tight. Smelters are resuming production, and domestic refined copper supply may increase. Downstream demand is expected to pick up with the "Golden March and Silver April" season, and the price correction may boost downstream restocking. Due to the difference in the resumption rhythm of supply and demand, copper industry inventory is still accumulating [6] 2. Spot - Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of March 6, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1855 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 101,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2870 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 195,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 8117 lots [13] - **Spot Prices**: As of March 6, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,965 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 760 yuan/ton [16] - **Cross - Period Quotes**: As of March 6, 2026, the cross - period quote of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 510 yuan/ton [16] - **Copper Premium and Positions**: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 43 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 75,885 lots, a decrease of 6184 lots from the previous week [25] 3. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: As of March 6, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility [30] - **Put - Call Ratio**: As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.7361, compared with 0.1208 last week [30] 4. Upstream Situation - **Quotes and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was quoted at 91,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The southern copper scrap processing fee was quoted at 2300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [32] - **Imports and Price Spreads**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, an increase of 178,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.05%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.24%. The price spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 4668.18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1050 yuan/ton [38] - **Production and Inventory**: As of November 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.923 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from October, a decline of 0.57%. The global copper concentrate capacity utilization rate was 78.8%, an increase of 1.9% from October. The domestic seven - port copper concentrate inventory was 5.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 460,000 tons [43] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of December 2025, the domestic monthly output of refined copper was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.28%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 6.76%. The global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.431 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.96%. The refined copper capacity utilization rate was 80.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from November [45] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a decrease of 6677.56 tons from November, a decline of 2.19%, and a year - on - year decline of 27%. The import profit and loss amount was 1246.98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3059.13 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Social Inventory**: The LME total inventory increased by 28,500 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory decreased by 1879 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 24,894 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 584,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 tons [57] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3100 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.33%, and a year - on - year decline of 21.43% [64] - **Power and Appliance Applications**: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65%. The year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% [68] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of December 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion amount was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 484.279481 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [75] 7. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of December 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 173,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 98,000 tons [80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Suspended [9] - Options: Sell put options [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has distinct supply - demand patterns, and copper prices maintain a volatile pattern. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand is continuously withdrawing, and the price of precious metals is still highly volatile. The price of copper is expected to range between 97,800 yuan/ton and 106,600 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 101,740 yuan/ton and closed at 101,560 yuan/ton, a - 0.27% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,660 yuan/ton and closed at 101,730 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease from the afternoon close [2]. Spot Situation - The spot quotation range of Shanghai copper was a discount of 40 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The main contract 2602 rose in the morning and then fell, closing at 101,210 yuan/ton. Market buying and selling sentiment both declined. The sales sentiment index in Shanghai was 2.65, and the purchase index was 2.55. Sellers' quotes were divided. High - quality brands had firm quotes due to tight supply, while discounts for flat - water copper and non - registered brands widened. Import remained at a loss, and the inter - month spread was between 350 - 450 yuan/ton. In the future, as imported goods arrive at the port and downstream stocking ends, the market will show a situation of weak supply and demand. Sellers may hold back some goods for delivery, and available resources will be limited, while buyers' willingness to take delivery is low. It is expected that the spot premium will continue to be under pressure [3]. Important Information Summary - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump said he was considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The US and Iran restarted negotiations in Oman last Friday, and Trump expected the second round of talks to be held next week [4]. - Federal Reserve aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker both indicated that the Fed's policy stance is approaching a neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm payroll data [4]. - Mining end: Congo (Kinshasa) requires all metal mining enterprises to prove that at least 5% of the company's shares are held by Congolese employees, and enterprises need to submit compliance certificates by July 31, 2026. The British Columbia provincial government is launching a series of measures to repair the mining permit system, with a special fund of 3 million Canadian dollars. The province has included several mining projects in the priority approval list and needs to complete three key tasks in 2026 to consolidate industry confidence [5]. - Smelting and import: The US has quietly built up the largest copper inventory in decades. Traders are rushing to ship copper to the US due to concerns about possible import tariffs on refined copper. As of February 6, Comex copper inventory was about 534,405 tons, more than five times higher than a year ago. The total US copper reserve is estimated to be about 1 million tons, which can meet about 7 months of demand [5]. - Consumption: Jinchuan Tonggui Wire and Cable Company successfully produced copper rods for ultra - fine enameled wires with a diameter of 0.05 mm, which marks an improvement in product quality and technical level. Fujian Province has identified 1570 key projects in 2026, with a total investment of 4.01 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 722.6 billion yuan, including 11 copper - related projects [6][7]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 1025.00 tons to 189,100 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 8811 tons to 165,939 tons. On February 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 331,300 tons, a change of - 45,000 tons from the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: Sell put [8] Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand continues to decline, and the price of precious metals remains volatile. The price of copper is expected to fluctuate between 97,800 yuan/ton and 106,600 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On February 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,000 yuan/ton and closed at 101,840 yuan/ton, a 1.74% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 101,740 yuan/ton and closed at 102,450 yuan/ton, a 0.93% increase from the afternoon close [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of electrolytic copper was between a discount of 30 yuan/ton and a premium of 100 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 35 yuan/ton, slightly narrowing from the previous day. The main contract of copper futures opened higher and then fluctuated lower, with an intraday range of 101,300 - 102,120 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment was divided, with the sales sentiment index slightly rising and the purchasing sentiment slightly falling. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken, so the spot premium is expected to decline [3]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, but it does not mean a weakening of the economic growth momentum. The UK political situation has changed, with the resignation of the Prime Minister's chief of staff and public relations director, and calls for the Prime Minister to resign [4]. - **Mining End**: On February 6, US Virtus Minerals announced a $30 million acquisition of Congolese copper - cobalt miner Chemaf, with a plan to inject $7.5 billion in capital. The acquisition still needs the approval of the Congolese government and state - owned mining company Gecamines [5]. - **Smelting and Import**: Last week, LME copper inventories continued to rise to a nine - month high, SHFE copper inventories increased by 6.83% to a ten - month high, international copper inventories increased by 2,554 tons, and New York copper inventories continued to accumulate to a new high [5]. - **Consumption**: Jinchuan Tonggui successfully produced ultra - fine enameled copper rods with a diameter of 0.05 mm. Fujian Province announced 1570 key projects in 2026, including 11 copper - related projects [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,700 tons to 184,300 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 3,044 tons to 157,128 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 331,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is in a stage of slightly converging supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 2.1% and an amplitude of 13.31%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 103,170 yuan/ton [7] - **International Situation**: The Fed's January interest - rate meeting paused, keeping the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate is at the upper end of the neutral range [7] - **Domestic Situation**: The General Office of the State Council issued a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, proposing 12 policy measures in three aspects [7] - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to decline, and the supply of copper mines remained tight. The supply of domestic copper may slightly decrease, while downstream demand may have some bargain - hunting inventory replenishment needs but is still cautious. Domestic copper inventory shows seasonal accumulation [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of January 30, 2026, the Shanghai copper main contract was quoted at 103,680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,340 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 222,932 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 8,505 lots. The basis was - 2,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 740 yuan/ton [12] - **Spot Price**: As of January 28, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 101,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 830 yuan/ton [20] - **Cross - period Spread**: As of January 30, 2026, the inter - month cross - period spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 730 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 240 yuan/ton [20] - **Premium and Position**: The CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper increased to 27 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai copper was - 67,473 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6,497 lots [24] - **Option Market**: As of January 30, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main - contract at - the - money options was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option open interest was 0.7272, a week - on - week increase of 0.0609 [30] 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Copper Concentrate and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 94,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton [33] - **Imports and Price Difference**: In December 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 178,000 tons, an increase of 7.05% and a year - on - year increase of 7.24%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 6,380.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 107.97 yuan/ton [38] - **Global Production and Inventory**: In November 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.923 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, a decrease of 0.57%. The global capacity utilization rate was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 569,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons [43] 3.3.2 Supply Side - **Refined Copper Production**: In December 2025, the domestic refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons, an increase of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. In November 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.371 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% [45] - **Refined Copper Imports**: In December 2025, the import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,677.56 tons, a decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27%. The import profit and loss was - 4,080.22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,629.37 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Social Inventory**: The LME total inventory increased by 4,375 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 12,528 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,058 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 335,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons [57] 3.3.3 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: In December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons, an increase of 2.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.43% [63] - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of November 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by - 1.8% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. In December 2025, the monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% year - on - year respectively [67] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of December 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 484.279481 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [74] 3.3.4 Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, in November 2025, the global refined copper supply was in surplus, with a surplus of 94,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 100,100 tons [79]

Market Overview - On January 22, 2026, the main copper futures contract opened at 100,550 CNY/ton and closed at 100,700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous trading day [2] - The night session saw the main copper contract open at 99,800 CNY/ton and close at 100,270 CNY/ton, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] Spot Market - SMM reported that the spot price for 1 electrolytic copper was quoted at a discount of 260 to 80 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average discount of 170 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton from the previous day [3] - The spot price range was between 99,740 and 100,400 CNY/ton, with trading activity gradually improving and downstream purchasing sentiment recovering [3][13] Economic and Geopolitical News - U.S. President Trump stated that the Greenland agreement would grant the U.S. "all desired military access," and threatened strong retaliation if European countries sold U.S. assets due to tariff threats related to Greenland [4] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth of 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [4] - The core PCE price index for November rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations [5] Mining Sector Developments - Chile's newly elected President José Antonio Kast caused a stir by merging the mining department into the economy ministry, raising concerns about the government's understanding of the mining sector's importance [5][15] - The new minister, Daniel Man, lacks direct mining experience, leading to criticism regarding the decision's implications for the mining industry's leadership [15] Copper Supply and Demand - As of January 20, 2026, copper inventories at the Comex exceeded 500,000 tons for the first time, reaching 554,904 short tons (approximately 50.34 million tons), a 1.3% increase from January 16 [6] - This inventory level is historically high, being more than three times that of LME copper inventories and close to one-third of the projected U.S. refined copper consumption of 1.58 million tons in 2024 [6] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper production of 2.37 million tons and consumption of 2.28 million tons for November 2025, resulting in a surplus of 9.4 million tons [6][16] Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks changed by 3,100 tons to 168,250 tons, while SHFE stocks decreased by 2,408 tons to 143,173 tons [7][17] - Domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory stood at 330,200 tons, a slight increase of 800 tons from the previous week [17] Market Strategy - The outlook for copper is neutral, with recent tariffs on semiconductors affecting demand for non-ferrous metals, including copper, which has seen limited price corrections despite high prices and weak downstream demand [8] - Current copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 99,500 CNY/ton to 110,000 CNY/ton [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the copper market has cooled down. The copper price is expected to turn into a range - bound pattern to balance supply and demand in the short term, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 98,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 12,400 - 13,300 US dollars/ton. The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness, inventory changes, and downstream demand. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to decline, and smelting revenue still relies on by - product sulfuric acid. The processing fee of crude copper remains high. There are labor strikes at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper - gold mine, and Panama plans to decide on the future of the Cobre Panama copper mine by June. The copper production of Luoyang Molybdenum and Ivanhoe Mines in Q4 2025 met expectations. [11] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory of SHFE increased by 33,000 tons to 213,000 tons, LME increased by 6,000 tons to 144,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 19,000 tons to 489,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. [11] - Import and Export: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. [11] - Demand: The copper price remains high, and downstream buyers purchase on dips. The expected increase in fixed - asset investment of the State Grid during the "15th Five - Year Plan" provides demand support. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, while that of cables declined. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, the substitution of scrap copper remained small, and the operating rate of scrap copper rods only slightly rebounded. [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The copper price rose first and then fell. The SHFE copper main contract fell 0.8% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 1.01% to 12,822.5 US dollars/ton. [18] - Spot Price: Details of spot prices of various copper products such as Yangtze River non - ferrous price, Guangdong Nanhai price, and prices of different copper materials are provided. [20] - Premiums and Discounts: The domestic copper spot basis weakened after the contract change, and on Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the futures. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a premium, reporting a premium of 61.5 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. [25] - Market Structure: Relevant figures of SHFE and LME copper market structure are presented. [27] 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate declined to - 46.5 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue. [32] - Import - Export Ratio: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only relevant figures are provided. [34] - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed. [37] - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 846,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 106,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. SHFE inventory increased, and the copper warrant quantity increased by 49,201 tons to 160,417 tons. LME inventory increased, mainly from Asian warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. [40][43][46] 4. Supply Side - Production: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper production in December 2025 increased by about 75,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper production in November 2025 was 1.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.80%. [50] - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase, and the annual cumulative imports were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 22.0%, with the annual cumulative imports of 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. Other import and export data of copper products such as anode copper, refined copper, and recycled copper are also provided. [53][56] 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: The global electrolytic copper consumption is mainly in power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, it is mainly in construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc. [72] - PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in December 2025 strengthened slightly, and Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvement in Japan and the UK, and weakening in the euro area, the US, and India. [75] - Downstream Industry Output: In November 2025, the output of some downstream copper industries such as automobiles, freezers, and washing machines increased year - on - year, while that of air conditioners, color TVs, and AC motors decreased. The cumulative output from January to November also showed different trends. [78] - Real Estate Data: In November 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion, and the decline rates widened. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline in November. [80] - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: The operating rates of different downstream copper enterprises such as copper rod, copper wire, and copper tube enterprises showed different trends in December 2025 and are expected to change in January 2026. This week, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rebounded, the scrap copper rod operating rate slightly recovered, the cable operating rate continued to decline, and the copper strip operating rate slightly rebounded. [83][95][98] - Refined - Scrap Copper Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread first widened and then narrowed, and the refined - scrap copper price spread on Friday was reported at 3,391 yuan/ton. [103] 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 76,102 to 1,287,180 lots (bilateral), with the near - month 2602 contract holding 125,612 lots (bilateral). [108] - Foreign Fund Positions: As of January 13, CFTC funds remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds slightly decreased (as of January 9). [111]

Group 1 - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 103,030.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.26% [1] - Market sentiment has cooled due to the temporary suspension of tariffs on key minerals by the U.S., while supply concerns persist due to ongoing strikes in Chile [2] - The recent downtrend in copper prices is influenced by weak downstream consumption and increased production halts, leading to an overall surplus in the domestic market [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, indicating potential for further rate cuts to boost market confidence [3] - The copper market narrative remains focused on tight raw material supplies, with the U.S. controlling over half of the global copper inventory, which may lead to price increases due to potential restocking behavior before and after the Spring Festival [3] - Recent declines in LME inventory suggest a potential for price increases, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 101,000 and 105,000 CNY [3]

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 87,400 CNY per ton, showing a discount of 30 CNY per ton compared to the futures main price of 87,430 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 87,430 CNY per ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.41%, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots [2] - The LME executive indicated that due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. copper tariffs, COMEX copper prices are expected to maintain a premium over LME prices for the next 18 months [3] Market Overview - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease in copper futures warehouse receipts, down by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons on November 27, with a cumulative decline of 19,110 tons over the past week, representing a 34.76% drop [3] - In terms of industrial performance, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in China fell by 5.5% year-on-year in October [4] - Freeport's report suggests that copper mine production is expected to remain stable next year, aligning with market expectations, while smelting output is anticipated to decline [4] Consumption and Pricing Dynamics - Recent feedback from downstream sectors indicates that after a drop in copper prices, consumption has shown some improvement, although the extent and sustainability of this recovery remain uncertain [4] - The domestic market has not yet shown significant inventory depletion, and there are expectations of continued export arrangements [4] - The recent macroeconomic environment has led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which may influence copper pricing dynamics in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing slight fluctuations with a minor increase of 0.09% in closing prices, amid easing macroeconomic sentiments and ongoing concerns regarding supply tightness from mining sources [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Copper prices have shown weak fluctuations recently, with a slight retreat from previous high levels, while downstream demand has shown some improvement [1] - Current domestic copper concentrate spot processing fees are hovering around -41 USD per dry ton, with market participants awaiting the results of the Benchmark year-end negotiations [1] Group 2: Company Insights - Tony Wenas, CEO of Freeport Indonesia, announced plans to produce 478,000 tons of cathode copper and 26 tons of gold by 2026, which is lower than the initial targets of approximately 700,000 tons of copper and 45 tons of gold due to ongoing recovery work from a mudslide incident [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent macroeconomic drivers are becoming more stable, and the fundamental contradictions in the copper market are not significant at the moment, although consumption performance remains weak [1] - It is expected that the short-term price focus will maintain a high-level fluctuation, as the market has not yet realized the inventory reduction caused by mining issues [1]