最近铜价偏弱震荡，期价重心较前期高位略有回落，下游需求有所好转，现货维持升水局面，社会库存 也出现小幅去化。金瑞期货表示，近期下游反馈铜价回落后，消费表现有所改善，但幅度和持续性有待 观察，对价格有一定敏感性，国内平衡暂未明显去库。展望后市，近期宏观驱动趋于缓和，基本面目前 矛盾不大，消费表现不强，尚未兑现矿山导致的非美去库，预计短期价格重心保持高位震荡。 （文华综合） 沪铜早间小幅高开，日内持续偏强震荡，收盘微涨0.09%。最近宏观情绪有所缓和，铜市矿端紧张担忧 仍在，最近价格回落需求略有好转，但仍需关注持续性。 印尼自由港公司首席执行官Tony Wenas周一表示，因泥浆溃涌事故后的恢复工作仍在进行中，该公司计 划在2026年生产47.8万吨阴极铜和26吨黄金，低于其最初计划。该公司最初目标是生产约70万吨铜和45 吨黄金。目前国内铜精矿现货加工费徘徊在-41美元/干吨附近，参与者普遍等待Benchmark年终谈判结 果。 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the support from mine - end interference at the lower end, but the demand side lacks a strong performance. The price is likely to fluctuate between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton. Entities can arrange buy or sell hedging based on this range. Arbitrage should be postponed, and the option strategy is short put [7]. Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 13, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 87,100 yuan/ton and closed at 87,550 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session opened at 87,650 yuan/ton and closed at 87,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at 87,040 - 87,380 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 50 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The copper price increase curbed downstream procurement. It is expected that the spot discount will not widen further near the delivery, and today's trading will center around par [2]. - **Important Information**: The US October CPI report was not released as scheduled. The 9 - month employment report may show only new employment data. Some Fed officials are cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation above the 2% target [3]. Mine End Hudbay Minerals maintained its 2025 copper and gold production guidance. It expects copper production to be near the lower limit of 117,000 - 149,000 pounds and gold production near the lower limit of 247,500 - 308,000 ounces. The company lowered the full - year comprehensive cash cost guidance for copper [4]. Smelting and Import Taseko Mines' third - quarter revenue was 174 million Canadian dollars. The core Gibraltar mine increased copper production, with improved grade and recovery rate, and reduced C1 cost. The Arizona Florence Copper project is about to produce the first batch of cathode copper [5]. Consumption In October, China's non - ferrous metal industry prosperity index was 31.8, up 1.4 points from the previous month, remaining in the lower - middle of the "normal" range. The leading index and the coincident index also increased [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts remained at 136,175 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 131 tons to 43,957 tons. On November 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 201,100 tons, up 5,200 tons from the previous week [6]. Price Table Data The report provides data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai - London ratio for different time points from October 15, 2025, to November 14, 2025 [25][26][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the latest data on copper fundamentals, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, and spreads, and also provides macro and industry news to help understand the current situation of the copper market. The copper trend intensity is rated as neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,960, with a daily decline of 0.85%, and the night - session closing price was 87,270, with a decline of 0.78%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,930, down 1.44% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 428,404, an increase of 81,170 from the previous day, and the open interest was 620,126, an increase of 2,982. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 35,174, an increase of 6,044, and the open interest was 333,000, an increase of 5,160 [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 37,437, an increase of 1,692, and the LME Copper inventory was 134,950, a decrease of 400. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 10.54%, a decrease of 0.30% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 19.66, a decrease of 0.12 from the previous day. The Shanghai Copper spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 55, an increase of 5 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Donald Trump in Busan, and the China - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on three aspects. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2% [1]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral International to export copper concentrates. US President Donald Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelters. Anglo American's Q3 copper production was 184,000 tons, up from 181,000 tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% to 526,000 tons. Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% due to lower ore grades. Chile's ENAMI obtained an environmental permit for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter that will process up to 850,000 tons of copper concentrates and produce up to 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report takes a neutral view of copper prices, with an expected trading range of RMB 81,600/ton to RMB 86,600/ton this week [7] Core View of the Report - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, strong precious metal prices, and frequent disruptions at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. The overall demand on the demand side is difficult to improve significantly, and copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 21, 2025, the Shanghai Copper main contract opened at RMB 85,220/ton and closed at RMB 85,400/ton, up 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at RMB 85,300/ton and closed at RMB 85,020/ton, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - On the previous day, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at par to a premium of RMB 100/ton, with an average premium of RMB 50, down RMB 10 from the previous day. The copper price ranged from RMB 85,560 - 85,900/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was divided. High copper prices suppressed purchasing willingness, and it is expected that the demand will not improve under high prices, and the spot premium will remain under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical risks are easing as European leaders support a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations. Japan's new female Prime Minister, Takamori Sanae, is considering a supplementary budget to address high prices [3] Mine - end - BHP's Escondida copper mine produced 328,900 tons in Q3 2025, an 8% year - on - year increase and unchanged quarter - on - quarter. The increase was due to record processing volume and improved recovery, partially offset by lower ore grades. The 2026 fiscal year production guidance remains at 1.15 - 1.25 million tons, and the expected annual ore grade is about 0.85% [4] Smelting and Import - In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,079.92 tons, a 2.67% month - on - month increase and a 14.84% year - on - year increase. Japan and Thailand were the top two import sources [5] Consumption - In September 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. The operating rates of domestic refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded last week but were still below pre - holiday levels and down over 15 percentage points year - on - year. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and the overall recovery space is limited [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 137,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,641 tons to 37,678 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [6] Arbitrage and Options - Arbitrage: Put on hold - Options: Short put @ RMB 81,000/ton [7]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a closing drop of 0.79%, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and general demand for copper, alongside accumulating social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to strong market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the end of the year, despite ongoing risks such as the U.S. government shutdown and fluctuating U.S.-China trade tensions [1] - Supply-side disruptions previously caused a spike in copper futures, with ongoing concerns about tight mining supplies and persistently low processing fees for domestic copper concentrate [1] Group 2: Pricing and Supply Dynamics - Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, is proposing to sell copper to European customers at a record premium of $325 per ton for next year, marking a 39% increase from this year [1] - Global mining supply remains tight, with domestic refined copper production cooling and limited rebound in social inventory, indicating strong resilience in the domestic market [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20250922: Pre-holiday Stockpiling and High Prices May Cause Copper Prices to Fluctuate" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The Fed's future interest rate cut path is hawkish, but pre-holiday stockpiling before the National Day and high copper prices affect downstream purchasing willingness, which may cause Shanghai copper prices to fluctuate at high levels [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,910, up 290 from the previous day; trading volume was 48,845 lots, a decrease of 41,669 lots; open interest was 116,552 lots, a decrease of 11,308 lots; inventory was 31,838 tons, a decrease of 631 tons; the basis was 80, down 290 [3] - **LME Copper**: On September 19, 2025, the 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,996.5, up 50.5; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 64.9, up 6.19; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 153.2, up 7.081 [3] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.6305, up 0.01; total inventory was 316,774, an increase of 3,932 [3] Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The tight supply - demand expectation of scrap copper leads to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in demand in some copper processing industries [3] - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [3] Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the pressure level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the pressure level around 10,200 - 10,500 for LME copper, the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the pressure level around 4.8 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [3]

Group 1 - Since the end of June, copper prices have experienced two phases of fluctuation, initially rising and then declining, with a peak of 80,990 yuan/ton and a subsequent low of 77,700 yuan/ton by July 15 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth stabilization plan for key industries, which positively impacted copper prices, although further details are awaited [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold three meetings in the second half of the year, with macroeconomic factors likely to have a significant impact on copper prices, leaning towards a bullish outlook [1] Group 2 - CSPT decided not to set a reference standard for copper concentrate processing fees for Q3 2025 due to unsustainable distortions in the current spot market [2] - New copper mines are expected to contribute to copper concentrate supply in the second half of the year, potentially alleviating tight supply conditions [2] - Domestic smelters are anticipated to face a peak maintenance period from September to November, which may affect production capacity [2] Group 3 - The U.S. copper tariff policy has been finalized, leading to increased volatility in U.S. copper prices, but it is unlikely to cause significant changes in global copper inventory structures [3] - The cable industry is currently in a low season, and high temperatures and rainy weather are disrupting production for some cable companies [3] - The automotive market is experiencing a consumption peak, with production and sales expected to accelerate [3] Group 4 - Overall, the financial attributes of copper prices are strengthening, and a return to a fluctuating market pattern is anticipated [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US tariff increase on semi-finished copper products has limited direct impact on the Chinese copper industry, and it is expected to have a certain negative impact on the Shanghai copper price, but the overall impact is not significant [3][14][35] - The price of copper may mainly show a volatile trend due to various factors such as China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory [35][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In June, affected by the dissipation of the negative impact of tariff policies, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly volatile and weakening trend, with a price range of about 77,650 yuan/ton to 80,780 yuan/ton [7] - The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,555 - 10,020 US dollars/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products starting from August 1st, while copper input materials and copper scrap are not subject to relevant tariffs [11] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Different types of enterprises had different profit changes, and there were also significant differences in profit changes among industries [15][16] - On July 30th local time in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was the fifth consecutive time to maintain the interest rate unchanged [3][35] 3. Supply Side - As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. As of July 25th, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was -4.26 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was -42.73 US dollars/kiloton [17] - As of July 31st, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 78,535 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper was -1,160 yuan/ton [23] 4. Demand Side - As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [26] 5. Inventory Side - As of July 25th, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 11,133 tons from the previous week. As of July 30th, 2025, the LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 12.4%. The COMEX copper inventory increased by 2,517 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 500 tons from the previous week [31] 6. Outlook - The factors affecting copper price trends include China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc., with different degrees of influence [34] - Considering various factors, the copper price may mainly show a volatile trend [35][36][37]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The copper price has faced upward resistance and has not broken through the oscillation range. The supply side remains stable, while the downstream demand is marginally weakening, and the inventory depletion has slowed down. Geopolitical conflicts have increased macro - uncertainty. Currently, the copper price is in the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the subsequent focus is on the implementation of Sino - US copper tariffs [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Geopolitical tensions have increased economic uncertainty. The year - on - year increase in domestic social retail sales reached the highest since December 2023, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year. From January to May, urban fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [1]. - On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has increased, and the negative value of domestic smelting fees has expanded, indicating a potential reduction in production. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, the market is cautious at high prices, the downstream operating rate has slowed down, and the household appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk [1]. - Overall, the supply is stable, the downstream demand is weakening, the inventory depletion has slowed down, and the copper price has not broken through the oscillation range. It is expected to remain in the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range in the short term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed slightly higher, at 78,570. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,558 to 127,151 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,873 to 115,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China was 220 yuan/ton. On June 16, 2025, the LME official price was $9,670/ton, and the spot premium was $68/ton [4]. Supply Side As of June 13, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.91/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.40 cents/pound [5]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 36,300 tons, an increase of 3,484 tons from the previous period. As of June 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 54,500 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 107,600 tons, a slight increase of 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 197,400 short tons, an increase of 1,315 short tons from the previous period [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of overseas copper are strong, but there are uncertainties in the macro - environment, and copper prices will continue to fluctuate. The strength analysis is neutral, with a price range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The copper spot is tight, and low domestic and falling LME inventories support near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances such as US tariff policies and the Middle - East situation affect investor sentiment, leading to low volatility in copper prices in four markets. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are decreasing, but the spot premium is narrowing. In June, the off - season characteristics are apparent in consumption, with reduced grid orders and weak consumption in industries like real estate, infrastructure, home decoration, and home appliances. However, lower prices prompt downstream and end - users to buy on dips, reducing inventories. On the supply side, copper concentrate supply is tight, spot processing fees are weakening, and secondary copper supply is short, increasing the probability of smelter production cuts or shutdowns. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, due to the lack of logical resonance between the macro and micro levels, prices are expected to remain volatile. With low domestic and overseas inventories, there is upward potential when copper prices are low. For spread trading, it is recommended to hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets and maintain term - spread long positions in Shanghai copper futures [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: Copper price volatility in four markets remains weak, with COMEX copper price volatility around 17% and LME copper price volatility around 7% [12]. - Term Spread: The B - structure of Shanghai copper term spreads is narrowing, with the spread between Shanghai copper contracts 06 - 07 rising from 80 yuan/ton on June 6th to 340 yuan/ton on June 13th. The LME copper spot premium is expanding, with the LME 0 - 3 spread increasing from a premium of 69.84 US dollars/ton to 73.41 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper is narrowing [16]. - Position: Shanghai copper and COMEX copper positions are decreasing, with Shanghai copper positions reducing by 17,600 lots to 551,900 lots. LME copper and international copper positions are increasing [17]. - Funds and Industry Positions: The net long positions of non - commercial traders in CFTC copper are increasing, rising from 24,094 lots on June 3rd to 26,351 lots on June 10th [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium is narrowing, dropping from a premium of 75 yuan/ton on June 6th to 35 yuan/ton on June 13th. The Yangshan Port copper premium is weakening, and the Southeast Asian premium is falling [28]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories are falling, from 508,300 tons on June 5th to 491,300 tons on June 12th. Domestic social inventories are decreasing, and bonded - area inventories are rising. COMEX inventories are increasing, and LME copper inventories are falling [34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper contract 07 is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and the LME copper position - to - inventory ratio is rising rapidly, indicating tight overseas spot supplies [35]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Supply is increasing, with China's copper concentrate imports in April 2025 reaching 2.9244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. Port inventories are rising, but processing fees are weakening, with the spot TC at - 44.75 US dollars/ton on June 13th [38]. - Secondary Copper: Imports are decreasing year - on - year, and domestic production is also significantly down year - on - year. The premium between refined and secondary copper is narrowing, and import profitability is expanding [41][46]. - Blister Copper: Imports are increasing, and processing fees are at a low level. In April, imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, processing fees were at a historically low level [50]. - Refined Copper: Production is increasing more than expected, with May's output at 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. Imports are decreasing, and with the narrowing of import losses and previous export profitability, domestic supplies may be shipped overseas [55]. 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and that of copper plates and foils was at a neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable slightly rebounded in the week of June 12th [58]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees are falling. Processing fees for copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils are also weakening [63]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [64]. - Finished - Product Inventory: Copper rod finished - product inventories are rising, and wire and cable finished - product inventories are increasing. In May, copper rod finished - product inventories were at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube finished - product inventories were at a relatively low level [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Domestic copper consumption is performing well. From January to May, cumulative actual consumption was 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and apparent consumption was 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important drivers of copper consumption, with grid investment growing rapidly [72]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.251 million units, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [74].