Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of long overseas and short domestic positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and long overseas and short domestic positions; in the long term, pay attention to actual demand as overseas supply is the main variable [2]. - For zinc, in the short term, it shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment. Long overseas and short domestic positions can be continued to hold, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of inter - month long positions [3]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average. The opportunity for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. In the short term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectations, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [12]. - For lead, it is expected that battery manufacturers will replenish their stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [13]. - For tin, in the short term, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as there are both raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [14]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the supply - demand balance has been achieved in August, and it may turn to surplus if one of the southwest region or Hesheng reaches full production. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, it will still oscillate at a low level [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices were supported around 78,000 yuan, and downstream purchasing improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and low domestic refined - scrap spreads, copper prices were strong, attempting to break through 79,000 yuan on Friday night [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. August is a seasonal off - peak for demand, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand declined significantly. In August, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while imported TC is rising slowly. In August, the increase in smelting production was further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand weakened seasonally, and most spot prices outside Shanghai turned to discounts. Overseas, European demand is average, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventory is rising, while overseas LME inventory is decreasing rapidly [3]. Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged [8]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have cut production passively, and some in the north are affected by the parade. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged [12]. Lead - This week, lead prices declined. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries is tight. The recycling rate of recycled lead remains low. On the demand side, the inventory of finished batteries is high, and the market's expectation of the peak season has fallen short of reality. The domestic social inventory is rising, and LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased [13]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fees at the mine end are low, and some domestic smelters are reducing production and entering the maintenance period. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but the recruitment is difficult. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the terminal electronics and photovoltaic sectors are expected to slow down. Domestic inventory is rising, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level, with a risk of short - squeezing [14]. Industrial Silicon - In the short term, the supply - demand balance has been achieved in August, and it may turn to surplus if one of the southwest region or Hesheng reaches full production. In the long - term, the over - capacity situation is still serious, and it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, due to resource - end compliance disturbances and the approaching downstream peak season, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the long - term, if the resource - end risk is resolved, it will still oscillate at a low level [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The copper price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. The aluminum market has a short - term good fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to demand and anti - arbitrage opportunities. The zinc price fluctuates upward, and attention should be paid to the squeeze - out market and arbitrage opportunities. The nickel market has a general short - term fundamental situation, and attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to policy trends. The lead price has a slight correction, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. The tin price fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to change from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and the disk is expected to fluctuate. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate, and the downward inflection point needs to see significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the spot premium had a change of - 30, the waste - refined copper price difference had a change of - 67, the SHFE inventory had a change of 648, etc. - **Market Situation**: Domestically, the GDP data in the second quarter is good, and the "anti - involution" policy on commodities boosts the non - ferrous market. The refined - waste price difference has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod operating rate has rebounded, and the spot premium and downstream restocking sentiment are good. The spot import window has opened once this week, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of long - position import logistics in the third and fourth quarters. The market is insensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest - rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream operating rate is okay in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of copper logistics reversal [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 120, the domestic alumina price increased by 4, the SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3300. - **Market Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. The demand in July is expected to weaken seasonally, with flat supply and demand. The inventory is expected to be balanced in July. The short - term fundamental situation is okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In the context of low inventory, attention should be paid to the inter - month and internal - external anti - arbitrage [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the zinc price fluctuated upward, the domestic social inventory was stable, and the LME inventory decreased by 1575. - **Market Situation**: In July, the domestic TC increased, and some smelters had maintenance, but new production capacity in the southwest and central China was put into operation. Domestic demand weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe was weak. The domestic social inventory increased slowly, and the LME inventory decreased after May, increasing the risk of short - squeezing. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see the sustainability of the short - squeezing market and manage positions. In the long - term, it is advisable to short on rallies. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 700. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premium is stable. The domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamental situation is general, and the macro - situation is favorable for commodities. Attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, etc., remained unchanged. - **Market Situation**: Since late May, some steel mills have reduced production passively. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [3] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the lead price decreased slightly, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 6175. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has weak scrap volume, tight waste battery demand, and low operating rate of recycled lead. The demand side has high battery inventory, flat battery operating rate, and weakening peak - season expectation. The refined - waste price difference is 0, and the inventory in Jiyuan is tight. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly in July, and there will be inventory accumulation. Affected by the supply - side reform sentiment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [6] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the tin price fluctuated widely, the domestic inventory increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has low processing fees at the mine end, some domestic smelters reducing production and entering the maintenance period, and possible slight decline in domestic smelting output in July and August. Overseas, there are signals of production resumption in Wa State, and the import volume from the DRC in June exceeded expectations. The demand side has limited solder elasticity, strong expectation of decline in terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth, and increasing domestic inventory. The LME inventory is at a low level, but the inventory - accumulation inflection point is emerging. The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 165, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 165. - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power - station problems, and there is no expected resumption date. There is slight production resumption in Yunnan and Sichuan, with low operating rate in Yunnan. The monthly output in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous significant increase, and the supply - demand balance has changed to inventory reduction. The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating downstream speculative and restocking sentiment. The industrial silicon disk is expected to fluctuate if the operating rate does not recover significantly in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 18 to 24, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 100, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 100. - **Market Situation**: Affected by factors such as warehouse - receipt game, supply - side news disturbance, and weak - demand expectation repair, the lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise. The basis has weakened slightly, and the market trading is mainly in the trader segment. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate link is gradually accumulating. The upstream has weak delivery willingness, and the downstream large enterprises actively receive goods. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate, and the downward inflection point needs to see significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [12]

| 变化 | -20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | 2025/06/26 | -1301.91 | -1273.21 | 140 | -2 | 119850 | 30775 | | 2025/06/27 | -1338.95 | -1398.26 | 140 | -0 | 119225 | 27900 | | 2025/06/30 | -1440.41 | -1376.43 | 140 | -10 | 117475 | 27150 | | 2025/07/01 | -1256.15 | -1305.67 | 140 | -19 | 114900 | 25600 | | 2025/07/02 | -1028.32 | -1131.52 | 140 | -22 | 113425 | 24225 | | 变化 | 227.83 | 174.15 | 0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of overseas copper are strong, but there are uncertainties in the macro - environment, and copper prices will continue to fluctuate. The strength analysis is neutral, with a price range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The copper spot is tight, and low domestic and falling LME inventories support near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances such as US tariff policies and the Middle - East situation affect investor sentiment, leading to low volatility in copper prices in four markets. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are decreasing, but the spot premium is narrowing. In June, the off - season characteristics are apparent in consumption, with reduced grid orders and weak consumption in industries like real estate, infrastructure, home decoration, and home appliances. However, lower prices prompt downstream and end - users to buy on dips, reducing inventories. On the supply side, copper concentrate supply is tight, spot processing fees are weakening, and secondary copper supply is short, increasing the probability of smelter production cuts or shutdowns. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, due to the lack of logical resonance between the macro and micro levels, prices are expected to remain volatile. With low domestic and overseas inventories, there is upward potential when copper prices are low. For spread trading, it is recommended to hold long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets and maintain term - spread long positions in Shanghai copper futures [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: Copper price volatility in four markets remains weak, with COMEX copper price volatility around 17% and LME copper price volatility around 7% [12]. - Term Spread: The B - structure of Shanghai copper term spreads is narrowing, with the spread between Shanghai copper contracts 06 - 07 rising from 80 yuan/ton on June 6th to 340 yuan/ton on June 13th. The LME copper spot premium is expanding, with the LME 0 - 3 spread increasing from a premium of 69.84 US dollars/ton to 73.41 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper is narrowing [16]. - Position: Shanghai copper and COMEX copper positions are decreasing, with Shanghai copper positions reducing by 17,600 lots to 551,900 lots. LME copper and international copper positions are increasing [17]. - Funds and Industry Positions: The net long positions of non - commercial traders in CFTC copper are increasing, rising from 24,094 lots on June 3rd to 26,351 lots on June 10th [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium is narrowing, dropping from a premium of 75 yuan/ton on June 6th to 35 yuan/ton on June 13th. The Yangshan Port copper premium is weakening, and the Southeast Asian premium is falling [28]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories are falling, from 508,300 tons on June 5th to 491,300 tons on June 12th. Domestic social inventories are decreasing, and bonded - area inventories are rising. COMEX inventories are increasing, and LME copper inventories are falling [34]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper contract 07 is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and the LME copper position - to - inventory ratio is rising rapidly, indicating tight overseas spot supplies [35]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Supply is increasing, with China's copper concentrate imports in April 2025 reaching 2.9244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. Port inventories are rising, but processing fees are weakening, with the spot TC at - 44.75 US dollars/ton on June 13th [38]. - Secondary Copper: Imports are decreasing year - on - year, and domestic production is also significantly down year - on - year. The premium between refined and secondary copper is narrowing, and import profitability is expanding [41][46]. - Blister Copper: Imports are increasing, and processing fees are at a low level. In April, imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, processing fees were at a historically low level [50]. - Refined Copper: Production is increasing more than expected, with May's output at 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. Imports are decreasing, and with the narrowing of import losses and previous export profitability, domestic supplies may be shipped overseas [55]. 3.3 Demand End - Operating Rate: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and that of copper plates and foils was at a neutral level. The operating rate of wire and cable slightly rebounded in the week of June 12th [58]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees are falling. Processing fees for copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils are also weakening [63]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [64]. - Finished - Product Inventory: Copper rod finished - product inventories are rising, and wire and cable finished - product inventories are increasing. In May, copper rod finished - product inventories were at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube finished - product inventories were at a relatively low level [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Domestic copper consumption is performing well. From January to May, cumulative actual consumption was 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and apparent consumption was 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important drivers of copper consumption, with grid investment growing rapidly [72]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.251 million units, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [74].