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宏观情绪降温,丙烯弱势整理
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no specific rating for inter - period and inter - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment has eased, but the fundamentals of propylene have not improved significantly, and the propylene market is mainly in a weak consolidation. Supply pressure persists, demand is lack of resilience, and the cost side has short - term support but also uncertainties. Propylene prices may continue to fluctuate weakly [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6545 yuan/ton (-25), East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (+0), North China spot price is 6245 yuan/ton (-5), East China basis is -195 yuan/ton (+25), and North China basis is -300 yuan/ton (+20) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene operating rate is 73% (-1%), PDH capacity utilization has increased, and production has increased month - on - month. The profit margins of different production methods vary, and the operating rates of related production methods also show different trends [1][2] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Propylene import profit is -257 yuan/ton (-74), and the price differences between different regions (such as South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR) are presented [1][39] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Different downstream products have different operating rates and profit margins. For example, PP powder operating rate is 36% (-2.95%) with a production profit of 105 yuan/ton (+5); epoxy propane operating rate is 73% (+0%) with a production profit of -26 yuan/ton (+104), etc. [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - Propylene factory inventory is 31750 tons (+1520) [1]