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PTA:供需逐步转弱但成本端偏强 PTA略偏强震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-18 02:01
Supply and Demand - PTA supply has increased significantly, with operating rates rising to 83% (+1.7%) [3] - Polyester operating rates remain stable at approximately 90.9% (-0.2%), with mixed impacts from maintenance and restarts [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in oil prices, affecting long fiber prices and production sales [3] Market Outlook - The supply-demand balance for PTA is expected to weaken, with downstream polyester manufacturers anticipating further production cuts [4] - Despite a tight spot market, the expectation of a decline in basis due to weakening supply-demand dynamics is noted [4] - The upcoming maintenance schedules for PTA facilities are limited, and new installations are expected to support PX demand, maintaining price support [4] - Oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances are anticipated to keep PTA prices relatively strong in the short term [4] Pricing and Costs - As of June 17, PTA spot processing fees are around 232 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 is 344 CNY/ton [2] - Spot market transactions for PTA are reported at prices between 4965 and 5050 CNY, with July and August contracts also showing varying price ranges [1]