甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月25日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 | 11月24日 | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2077 | 2004 | 73 | 3.64% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2198 | 2138 | 60 | 2.81% | | | MA15价差 | -121 | -134 | 13 | -9.70% | | | 太仓基差 | -12 | -13 | 1 | -7.69% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1988 | 1985 | 3 | 0.13% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2045 | 2018 | 28 | 1.36% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2045 | 1995 | 50 | 2.51% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 58 | 10 | 48 | 475.00% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 0 | -23 | 23 | -1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [2][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4506, the highest was 4532, the lowest was 4392, and the closing price was 4402, a weekly decline of 132 or 2.92% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton production capacity, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to September 2025, domestic PX production was 28.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.82%; imports were 7.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.02%. In August, the PX social inventory was 3.9179 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. This month, PX imports were high and downstream device operating loads were low, leading to an increase in PX social inventory [5] - The domestic PX load decreased by 0.81% to 87.4%, and the Asian PX load increased by 0.96% to 77.92%. This week's PX output was 733,100 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared with last week. During the period, the average PX - N was $225.68/ton, a month - on - month increase of $6.9/ton [5] - This week, Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 - million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month; Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. Overseas, the PX of Indonesia's TPPI refinery was still operating after a fire, and South Korea's SK refinery's PX device was not affected by a fire. Next week, PTT and Satorp will have devices for planned maintenance, and the overseas PX load is expected to decrease. There will be few Asian PX device maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the load of Asian and domestic PX is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with PXN under pressure [6] 2.2 Increased PTA Maintenance Intensity - From January to September 2025, domestic PTA production was 54.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This week, domestic PTA production was 1.3983 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with last week and 7,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. The average PTA cost was 4,234.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 127.46 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 277.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton; the average processing fee was 182.27 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton [8] - This week, Hengli Petrochemical reduced production as planned, Yisheng New Materials increased load in the middle of the week, the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased, and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device slightly reduced load. The domestic supply met expectations, and the domestic overall production inventory decreased this period. The current PTA social inventory is 3.1984 million tons, a decrease of 61,200 tons or 1.88% compared with last week. With the recovery of some PTA device loads and news of new device commissioning, the PTA spot basis weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches the risk - free arbitrage point and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce device loads, the subsequent basis decline space is limited [8] 2.3 High Polyester Operating Load - From January to September 2025, domestic polyester production was 58.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 91.18 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester production), a year - on - year increase of 15.8% [12] - This week, China's polyester industry output was 155,400 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 0.04% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. Longzhong predicts that next week, China's polyester industry output is expected to be around 155000 - 156000 tons, a slight increase compared with this period. At present, after the previous device commissioning and the restart of long - stopped devices, the load will gradually increase, and there are also device commissioning plans next week. It is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will increase slightly next week [12] - As of October 17, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%. As of October 17, the inventory of grey cloth of East China weaving enterprises was 30.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 day. As of October 17, the inventories of POY, FDY, bottle chips, and staple fibers were 16.8 days, 22.1 days, 16.0 days, and 6.1 days respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms first decreased and then increased, the downstream polyester load was relatively stable, the market production and sales structure was differentiated, the filament inventory accumulated, and the staple fiber inventory decreased month - on - month. However, recently, trade frictions have escalated, terminal export orders have declined. As the terminal demand enters the off - season, it is expected that the loads of filaments and staple fibers may decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [14]

Supply and Demand - As of August 29, PTA operating rate is at 70.4%, a decrease of 2.5% [3] - As of August 29, polyester operating rate has increased to 90.3%, an increase of 0.3% [3] - Downstream polyester production has seen a decline due to lack of orders and high temperatures, with inventory levels being acceptable but overall stock being high [3] Price and Profitability - On September 1, PTA spot processing fee is around 170 CNY/ton, while TA2511 and TA2601 futures processing fees are 317 CNY/ton and 313 CNY/ton respectively [2] - The main spot trading range is between 4710 and 4735 CNY, with some transactions at a basis of 40 to 48 [1] Market Outlook - The low processing margin has led to increased unplanned maintenance of PTA facilities in August and September, improving supply-demand expectations, although the execution of maintenance is not meeting expectations [4] - There is still a demand expectation for September and October, with polyester and terminal loads recovering compared to previous periods, providing some support to demand [4] - Short-term strategies suggest focusing on support around 4700 CNY, with a short-term bullish outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in PTA futures, which have seen a slight decline of 1.07% to 4830.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Supply Analysis - Supply dynamics indicate that several companies, including Jiatuo and Jiahua Petrochemical, are undergoing maintenance, which has affected production levels. Additionally, Hainan Yisheng and Dushan Energy are also in maintenance, while Helong Petrochemical has planned an unscheduled shutdown. The second production line of Helun Petrochemical has been launched [1] Demand Analysis - Demand for PTA is showing signs of improvement, with polyester operating rates slightly increasing and production levels remaining high. The terminal weaving operating rates have also seen a minor recovery, leading to a moderate replenishment of stocks by downstream factories. Overall, terminal order conditions are gradually improving [1] Market Outlook - The market outlook suggests that despite significant fluctuations in oil prices, the cost support for PTA remains average. However, with a reduction in PTA supply and a rebound in downstream polyester factory loads, the supply-demand situation for PTA is expected to improve. Short-term PTA prices are anticipated to follow cost fluctuations [1]

Supply and Demand - As of August 14, PTA operating rates are at 76.4%, an increase of 1.7% due to the restart of facilities from Weilian Chemical (2.5 million tons) and Jiaxing Petrochemical (2.2 million tons) [3] - Polyester operating rates have slightly increased to 89.4%, up by 0.6%, with local improvements in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regarding terminal operating rates and shipment volumes [3] - New orders for grey fabric show mixed results, with some local "hot-selling" products performing well, while overall procurement remains average [3] Pricing and Profitability - On August 14, PTA spot processing fees are around 212 RMB/ton, with processing fees for TA2509 and TA2601 futures at 258 RMB/ton and 331 RMB/ton respectively [2] - The spot market for PTA is experiencing a general trading atmosphere, with prices ranging from 4620 to 4680 RMB, and a main spot basis around 09-14 [1][4] Market Outlook - The PTA supply-demand situation is expected to improve due to increased maintenance plans amid low processing margins, but medium-term expectations remain weak with the new PTA facility from Helen Petrochemical coming online [4] - Overall, PTA prices are anticipated to remain weak due to supply-demand concerns and crude oil trends, although the low processing fees and limited pressure from raw material PX may limit downward movement [4] - Strategies include monitoring support around 4600 RMB for TA01 and considering high-level hedging for TA1-5, while focusing on expanding low processing fees around 250 RMB [4]

Supply and Demand - As of August 7, PTA supply has improved with the restart of 150,000 tons and 120,000 tons facilities by Taiwan Chemical, while Jiaxing Petrochemical's 220 tons facility is under scheduled maintenance. Yisheng Materials' 720,000 tons facility has restored its load, and INEOS's 235,000 tons facility is operating at reduced capacity. Overall, PTA load has recovered to 76.2%, an increase of 3.6% [3] - On the demand side, new facilities that started at the end of July and previously shut down facilities have increased production. Additionally, some factories in long and short fiber sectors have slightly increased their load, with polyester's overall load rising to approximately 88.8%, an increase of 0.7%. However, the order atmosphere for grey cloth remains weak, and the market's inventory turnover is slow, limiting overall operating rates [3] Profitability - As of August 7, PTA's spot processing fee is around 166 yuan per ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures is 263 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - Despite a recent improvement in PTA supply and demand in August, the outlook remains weak due to the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Hailun Petrochemical and a continued weak order situation at the terminal. The PTA basis is expected to operate weakly. Overall, with a weak supply-demand outlook and limited support from crude oil, the rebound potential for PTA is insufficient. However, there is still some short-term support due to the overall improvement in domestic commodity sentiment and low PTA processing fees [4] - The strategy suggests a short-term trading range for TA between 4600-4800, with a recommendation for TA1-5 to hedge against high prices and to expand PTA processing fees at low levels around 250 [4]

Group 1 - The main PTA futures contract closed at 4978 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest by 86,628 contracts [1] - During the week, PTA futures opened at 4820 yuan/ton, peaked at 5074 yuan/ton, and dipped to a low of 4696 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 4.01% [1] Group 2 - A 450,000-ton PTA plant in South China is gradually shutting down for maintenance, expected to last around two months, while a 220,000-ton plant in Northeast China is already offline [2] - The overall operating rate of major weaving production bases in China has declined, with the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region's chemical fiber weaving rate and the East China dyeing factory operating rate also showing a high-level retreat [2] - The textile enterprises' order days have slightly rebounded to 9.9 days, down by 0.5 days, while the transaction volume in Light Textile City was 504 million meters, a decrease of 65 million meters [2] Group 3 - According to Ningzheng Futures, the supply side of PTA is expected to increase, while polyester production is showing a slight decline, indicating a weakening supply-demand expectation for PTA [3] - Hualian Futures noted a significant recovery in the supply side due to the commissioning of a 250,000-ton plant and the restart of several major plants, while the demand side for polyester is slightly down [3] - The overall industry inventory remains stable, but there is a potential for accumulation in the future, with strong cost support from crude oil influenced by geopolitical factors [3]

Supply and Demand - PTA supply has increased significantly, with operating rates rising to 83% (+1.7%) [3] - Polyester operating rates remain stable at approximately 90.9% (-0.2%), with mixed impacts from maintenance and restarts [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in oil prices, affecting long fiber prices and production sales [3] Market Outlook - The supply-demand balance for PTA is expected to weaken, with downstream polyester manufacturers anticipating further production cuts [4] - Despite a tight spot market, the expectation of a decline in basis due to weakening supply-demand dynamics is noted [4] - The upcoming maintenance schedules for PTA facilities are limited, and new installations are expected to support PX demand, maintaining price support [4] - Oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances are anticipated to keep PTA prices relatively strong in the short term [4] Pricing and Costs - As of June 17, PTA spot processing fees are around 232 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 is 344 CNY/ton [2] - Spot market transactions for PTA are reported at prices between 4965 and 5050 CNY, with July and August contracts also showing varying price ranges [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

Market Overview - On May 21, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a stable basis for spot prices. The trading range for May cargo was between 4855 and 4935, with some transactions slightly higher, while June cargo was traded at a basis of 120-140 [1][4]. Cost Analysis - As of May 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 355 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 356 CNY/ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates increased to 76.9%, up by 4.4% from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The comprehensive operating rate for polyester rose to 95%, an increase of 0.8%. Despite forecasts of production cuts due to high raw material prices, the demand for polyester remains relatively stable, with low inventory levels in the polyester factories. The price of polyester yarn has shown mixed trends, but overall sales remain weak [3]. Market Outlook - In late May, PTA facilities are expected to restart, but future maintenance plans remain unclear. With rising raw material prices and increasing losses in downstream polyester products, there is a tendency for production cuts among some polyester factories. This has led to a weakening expectation in the supply-demand balance for PTA, resulting in a noticeable decline in basis this week. However, following the maintenance of a PTA facility in East China, the basis has stabilized somewhat. Short-term oil price increases are limited, and the intention for production cuts in downstream polyester factories puts pressure on PTA prices. The strategy suggests limited downside potential for TA as long as the supply-demand tightness persists and oil prices do not fall significantly, with a focus on support around 4600 [4].