甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月25日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 | 11月24日 | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2077 | 2004 | 73 | 3.64% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2198 | 2138 | 60 | 2.81% | | | MA15价差 | -121 | -134 | 13 | -9.70% | | | 太仓基差 | -12 | -13 | 1 | -7.69% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1988 | 1985 | 3 | 0.13% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2045 | 2018 | 28 | 1.36% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2045 | 1995 | 50 | 2.51% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 58 | 10 | 48 | 475.00% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 0 | -23 | 23 | -1 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [2][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4506, the highest was 4532, the lowest was 4392, and the closing price was 4402, a weekly decline of 132 or 2.92% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton production capacity, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to September 2025, domestic PX production was 28.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.82%; imports were 7.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.02%. In August, the PX social inventory was 3.9179 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. This month, PX imports were high and downstream device operating loads were low, leading to an increase in PX social inventory [5] - The domestic PX load decreased by 0.81% to 87.4%, and the Asian PX load increased by 0.96% to 77.92%. This week's PX output was 733,100 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared with last week. During the period, the average PX - N was $225.68/ton, a month - on - month increase of $6.9/ton [5] - This week, Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 - million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month; Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. Overseas, the PX of Indonesia's TPPI refinery was still operating after a fire, and South Korea's SK refinery's PX device was not affected by a fire. Next week, PTT and Satorp will have devices for planned maintenance, and the overseas PX load is expected to decrease. There will be few Asian PX device maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the load of Asian and domestic PX is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with PXN under pressure [6] 2.2 Increased PTA Maintenance Intensity - From January to September 2025, domestic PTA production was 54.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This week, domestic PTA production was 1.3983 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with last week and 7,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. The average PTA cost was 4,234.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 127.46 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 277.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton; the average processing fee was 182.27 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton [8] - This week, Hengli Petrochemical reduced production as planned, Yisheng New Materials increased load in the middle of the week, the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased, and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device slightly reduced load. The domestic supply met expectations, and the domestic overall production inventory decreased this period. The current PTA social inventory is 3.1984 million tons, a decrease of 61,200 tons or 1.88% compared with last week. With the recovery of some PTA device loads and news of new device commissioning, the PTA spot basis weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches the risk - free arbitrage point and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce device loads, the subsequent basis decline space is limited [8] 2.3 High Polyester Operating Load - From January to September 2025, domestic polyester production was 58.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 91.18 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester production), a year - on - year increase of 15.8% [12] - This week, China's polyester industry output was 155,400 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 0.04% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. Longzhong predicts that next week, China's polyester industry output is expected to be around 155000 - 156000 tons, a slight increase compared with this period. At present, after the previous device commissioning and the restart of long - stopped devices, the load will gradually increase, and there are also device commissioning plans next week. It is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will increase slightly next week [12] - As of October 17, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%. As of October 17, the inventory of grey cloth of East China weaving enterprises was 30.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 day. As of October 17, the inventories of POY, FDY, bottle chips, and staple fibers were 16.8 days, 22.1 days, 16.0 days, and 6.1 days respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms first decreased and then increased, the downstream polyester load was relatively stable, the market production and sales structure was differentiated, the filament inventory accumulated, and the staple fiber inventory decreased month - on - month. However, recently, trade frictions have escalated, terminal export orders have declined. As the terminal demand enters the off - season, it is expected that the loads of filaments and staple fibers may decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [14]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with paraxylene (PX) futures experiencing a slight increase, reaching a high of 6852.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 1.70% [1] - Recent supply of PX has increased, while PTA operating rates remain stable, leading to a marginal weakening of PX fundamentals. However, terminal demand is expected to recover seasonally in August and September, with an anticipated increase in polyester operating rates [1] - Overall, while terminal demand shows marginal improvement and short-term supply-demand dynamics provide some support, PX valuations have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, suggesting limited upward potential and a likely period of volatility ahead, particularly in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The decline in crude oil prices has led to an overall correction in the energy and chemical sector, with PTA facilities experiencing reduced production due to low processing fees, resulting in limited recovery [2] - Despite the recent tightening of PX supply, the PX-N price spread remains robust at 254 USD, while PX prices in the external market have seen a slight rebound to 833 USD, indicating a continued volatile market environment [2] - The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation as stakeholders await changes in PTA facility operations [2]

Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates decreased to 81% (-2.8%), while Asian PX operating rates increased to 74.1% (+1.1%) [2] - PTA operating rates rose to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] Price Trends - On July 9, Asian PX prices increased by $3/ton to $850/ton, equivalent to RMB 7009/ton [1] - The current spot market for PX is under pressure due to limited downstream polyester consumption and insufficient supply-side support [1] Market Outlook - PX supply-demand expectations remain tight due to new PTA production forecasts, while oil prices are expected to trend strong in the short term [4] - Strategies suggest a short-term long position for PX around 6600 [4]

Supply and Demand - PTA supply has increased significantly, with operating rates rising to 83% (+1.7%) [3] - Polyester operating rates remain stable at approximately 90.9% (-0.2%), with mixed impacts from maintenance and restarts [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in oil prices, affecting long fiber prices and production sales [3] Market Outlook - The supply-demand balance for PTA is expected to weaken, with downstream polyester manufacturers anticipating further production cuts [4] - Despite a tight spot market, the expectation of a decline in basis due to weakening supply-demand dynamics is noted [4] - The upcoming maintenance schedules for PTA facilities are limited, and new installations are expected to support PX demand, maintaining price support [4] - Oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances are anticipated to keep PTA prices relatively strong in the short term [4] Pricing and Costs - As of June 17, PTA spot processing fees are around 232 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 is 344 CNY/ton [2] - Spot market transactions for PTA are reported at prices between 4965 and 5050 CNY, with July and August contracts also showing varying price ranges [1]

Supply and Demand - The supply of PX has increased, with Asian PX operating rates rising to 87% (+4.9%) and domestic PX rates at 75.1% (+3.1%) [2] - Demand for PTA has also improved, with operating rates around 84%, as several PTA plants are restarting operations [2] Market Outlook - Following the recovery of PX profitability, supply has increased due to delayed maintenance and higher operating rates, leading to a weakening supply-demand balance [3] - Despite the recent pressure on PX prices, strong short-term demand from PTA restarts and new capacity coming online may limit further price declines [3] - The short-term strategy suggests monitoring support around 6400, with potential for price fluctuations, and a focus on short-term spread trades [3] Spot Market - On June 10, Asian PX prices rebounded, with spot prices for July at 815 and August at 813, while paper prices for September were at 800/805 [1] - The cost of PX rose by 9 USD/ton to 817 USD/ton, equivalent to 6765 RMB/ton [1]

Supply and Demand - Asian PX supply has increased, with overall load rising to 69.4% (+1.9%) and domestic PX load reaching 78% (+3.9%) [2] - Demand has seen a decrease, with PTA load dropping to 75.7% (-1.4%) due to the restart of 1 million tons of PTA capacity by Energetic and 1.5 million tons by Taiwan Chemical, while Dushan Energy's 3 million tons facility is under maintenance [2] Market Performance - On May 29, Asian PX prices rose by $16/ton to $852/ton, equivalent to 7061 RMB/ton, with PXN near $282/ton [1] - The current spot market for PX remains strong, with July prices negotiating at +20/+30, August at +13, and September at +10/+17 [1] - The market sentiment is buoyed by reduced tariff risks and rumors of some PTA manufacturers cutting PTA contract volumes due to PX shortages [1][3] Market Outlook - Despite the recent recovery in PX profitability and the gradual restart of previously maintained facilities, there is an expectation of weakening supply-demand dynamics due to downstream polyester production cuts [3] - Short-term PX market remains tight, with upward price movement limited by the anticipated supply-demand shift [3] - Strategies include monitoring pressure above 6800 for PX and looking for opportunities in PX-SC spread trading [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

Supply and Demand - Asian PX prices have significantly increased due to unexpected losses in multiple PX facilities, tightening near-term supply and demand expectations [1] - Asian PX operating rates have improved to 70.6% (+2.7%), while domestic PX operating rates have risen to 78.6% (+5.6%) following the restart of some PX facilities [2] - PTA operating rates have decreased to 72.5% (-5.2%) due to planned shutdowns of certain facilities [2] Market Outlook - Recent progress in US-China trade negotiations has improved market sentiment, supporting a rebound in oil prices, although there are concerns about potential downward pressure due to Iran's willingness to negotiate and OPEC+ production increases [3] - PX supply is expected to tighten in the second quarter due to increased unexpected losses in PX facilities and delayed maintenance in some PTA plants, which supports short-term PX demand [3] - Despite potential short-term pressures on PX prices due to weak oil price momentum and expanded losses in downstream polyester, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain strong, leading to a bullish outlook for PX prices in the near term [3]