期货研究报告 2025年12月01日 周报 PTA期货：供需结构阶段性仍较好 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面呈现4600-4800区间震荡偏强。上周PTA两套装置提负，整体PTA开工 率仍低，国内PTA供应持续收紧，周期内虹港250万吨PTA装置重启，中泰120万吨PTA装置提负，PTA负荷调整 至73.7%，增2.7%，而需求端变化不大，聚酯开工率维持高位，织造端订单和开机率相对回落。PTA供需维持 偏紧格局。原料端：PX供应依然偏紧走势偏强，PXN坚挺，然原油走势转弱。原油不稳定导致PTA追涨动力不 足。 2、近期PTA供应减量较预期增加，且聚酯开工在内外需支撑下降负预期延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后， PTA出口有望增加，长丝产销明显放量，库存去化至低位，另外10月底的中美谈判释放利好，降低10%芬太尼 关税，或能带动一定外需订单下单，PTA供需预期明显修复。织造端订单和开机率相对回落，但春节时间尚 早， 针织品的成品库存也不高，涤丝下游开机率回落预期或有限。整体上，PX供需偏紧叠加PTA供需结构阶 ...

Supply and Demand - As of November 21, domestic PX operating rates reached 89.5%, an increase of 2.7% [2] - Asian PX operating rates were at 79.7%, up by 1.2% [2] - PTA operating rates decreased to 71%, down by 4.7% [3] Market Overview - On November 26, Asian PX prices increased by $3/ton to $829/ton, equivalent to RMB 6765/ton [1] - The market sentiment is supported by rumors of maintenance at a major PX plant in East China, although downstream product changes remain unclear [1] - The market trading atmosphere is generally average, with January spot prices expected to float around -3 and February around -2/-1 [1] Price Outlook - Recent changes in some isomerization units have occurred, but some factories are relying on MX to supplement PX operations, keeping PX supply at a high level [4] - The demand side is facing weakness due to concentrated PTA plant maintenance and gradually weakening terminal demand [4] - Despite short-term supply and demand being weak, medium-term expectations for PX supply and demand remain tight, indicating strong support for PX prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol Industry - The inland market will see a continuous increase in production. The marginal devices in the inland area are in a loss - making state. The market sentiment has improved due to some Iranian devices starting to shut down due to gas restrictions. The price and basis have both strengthened. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rebounded due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the unsuccessful Russia - Ukraine negotiations. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil remains weak. Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [5]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, there is a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The supply has recovered due to fewer maintenance, and the inventory has decreased slightly. For PE, there is a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Although the unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, the imported goods are abundant, and the demand is generally weak. The 01 contract is still under great pressure [8]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern. The weekly production has declined due to some devices reducing their loads, and the soda ash factories have reduced their inventory stage by stage. In the medium term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand situation will be further pressured without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. Glass has a short - term positive performance driven by cold - repair benefits, but in the long term, it is still under pressure due to the weakening demand and the surplus pattern [9]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the supply is generally loose, and the demand support is limited. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - demand expectation is generally loose. The price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. For styrene, the supply of goods is limited, and the demand support is expected to be limited. The rebound space is restricted [10]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply cost is strongly supported, but the inventory is increasing seasonally, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. The downstream enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline further. The natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda has certain supply - demand pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. PVC has a surplus supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [12]. Polyester Industry - PX has limited short - term drive but strong medium - term support. PTA's supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. Bottle - chip's supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [13]. LPG Industry - The LPG price has declined, the inventory has increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed. The overall market situation needs further attention [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, with increases of 3.64% and 2.81% respectively. The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 475.00% [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased, with decreases of 2.86%, 4.16%, and 3.91% respectively [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased by 0.38%, while that of overseas upstream enterprises increased by 0.30%. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices remained unchanged [1]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, with increases of 1.29% and 1.34% respectively. The refined oil cracking spreads of different regions showed different changes [5]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and other contracts increased to varying degrees. The L15 and PP15 spreads increased by 14.75% and 12.82% respectively [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.51%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.60% [8]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with decreases of 4.89% and 4.23% respectively [8]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price and Spread**: Glass 2601 price increased by 2.63%, and soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices increased by 1.11% and 1.20% respectively [9]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 4.85%, and the weekly production decreased by 4.86%. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.98% [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 2.15%, and the soda ash factory's inventory decreased by 0.93% [9]. Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased. The price of styrene's EB2601 decreased by 1.1% [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased by 11.6% and 10.7% respectively [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.7%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4% [10]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased by 1.36%, and the full - latex basis increased by 24.49% [11]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The production of natural rubber in some regions decreased, and the operating rates of automobile tire factories decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the warehouse - receipt inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE increased by 3.60% and 1.01% respectively [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.6%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.5% [12]. - **Operating Rate**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.0% [12]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 2.1% [12]. Polyester Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some polyester products such as POY150/48 decreased, and the price of CFR China PX increased by 0.2% [13]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.5%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.8% [13]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased by 14.4% [13]. LPG Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512 and PG2601 decreased. The PG12 - 01 spread increased by 21.67% [15]. - **Inventory**: The LPG port inventory increased by 6.28%, and the port storage - capacity ratio increased by 6.29% [15]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 3.35%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 2.93% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (not explicitly stated in a clear rating system but based on the context of market analysis) [6] - Methanol: Consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread, but with caution [6] - Pure Benzene: Bearish bias, consider option configuration [3] - Styrene: Price supported but limited upside [3] - Polypropylene: Slight bearish due to supply increase and weak demand [2] - Plastic: Bearish due to increased supply and weak demand [2] - PVC: Follow cost - end changes, supply high and demand weak [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation, follow profit changes [7] - PX: Strong before new capacity, short - term supply - demand weakening [5] - PTA: Cost - driven, reduced inventory build - up expectation [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term rebound expected but limited space [5] - Short Fiber: Price follows raw materials, no new investment pressure [5] - Bottle Chips: Cost - driven, long - term over - capacity pressure [5] - Soda Ash: Bullish short - term, oversupply long - term [8] - Glass: Limited downside, consider long - glass short - soda strategy [8] Core Views - The overall chemical market is complex, with different products showing various trends based on supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment factors. Some products have short - term bullish or bearish trends, while others face long - term challenges such as over - capacity [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts are fluctuating around the 5 - day moving average. Plastic and polypropylene futures are weak due to increased supply and weak demand. Polyethylene supply pressure increases with reduced maintenance and more shipments, and demand from downstream industries is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are weak, and the rebound is bearish. Consider option configuration. Styrene price is supported by tight supply - demand balance but has limited upside due to uncertain cost and demand support [3] Polyester - PX is strong before new capacity but short - term supply - demand is weakening. PTA is cost - driven with reduced inventory build - up expectation. Ethylene glycol has a short - term rebound expectation but limited space. Short fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle chips are cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol can consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread due to overseas production cuts and low valuation, but be cautious of weak reality. Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC has good export to India but weak domestic demand, and it may follow cost - end changes. Caustic soda is in a weak operation due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is de - stocking and bullish short - term but oversupplied long - term. Glass has limited downside and can consider the long - glass short - soda strategy [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [2][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4506, the highest was 4532, the lowest was 4392, and the closing price was 4402, a weekly decline of 132 or 2.92% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton production capacity, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to September 2025, domestic PX production was 28.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.82%; imports were 7.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.02%. In August, the PX social inventory was 3.9179 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. This month, PX imports were high and downstream device operating loads were low, leading to an increase in PX social inventory [5] - The domestic PX load decreased by 0.81% to 87.4%, and the Asian PX load increased by 0.96% to 77.92%. This week's PX output was 733,100 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared with last week. During the period, the average PX - N was $225.68/ton, a month - on - month increase of $6.9/ton [5] - This week, Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 - million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month; Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. Overseas, the PX of Indonesia's TPPI refinery was still operating after a fire, and South Korea's SK refinery's PX device was not affected by a fire. Next week, PTT and Satorp will have devices for planned maintenance, and the overseas PX load is expected to decrease. There will be few Asian PX device maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the load of Asian and domestic PX is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with PXN under pressure [6] 2.2 Increased PTA Maintenance Intensity - From January to September 2025, domestic PTA production was 54.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This week, domestic PTA production was 1.3983 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with last week and 7,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. The average PTA cost was 4,234.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 127.46 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 277.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton; the average processing fee was 182.27 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton [8] - This week, Hengli Petrochemical reduced production as planned, Yisheng New Materials increased load in the middle of the week, the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased, and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device slightly reduced load. The domestic supply met expectations, and the domestic overall production inventory decreased this period. The current PTA social inventory is 3.1984 million tons, a decrease of 61,200 tons or 1.88% compared with last week. With the recovery of some PTA device loads and news of new device commissioning, the PTA spot basis weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches the risk - free arbitrage point and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce device loads, the subsequent basis decline space is limited [8] 2.3 High Polyester Operating Load - From January to September 2025, domestic polyester production was 58.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 91.18 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester production), a year - on - year increase of 15.8% [12] - This week, China's polyester industry output was 155,400 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 0.04% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. Longzhong predicts that next week, China's polyester industry output is expected to be around 155000 - 156000 tons, a slight increase compared with this period. At present, after the previous device commissioning and the restart of long - stopped devices, the load will gradually increase, and there are also device commissioning plans next week. It is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will increase slightly next week [12] - As of October 17, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%. As of October 17, the inventory of grey cloth of East China weaving enterprises was 30.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 day. As of October 17, the inventories of POY, FDY, bottle chips, and staple fibers were 16.8 days, 22.1 days, 16.0 days, and 6.1 days respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms first decreased and then increased, the downstream polyester load was relatively stable, the market production and sales structure was differentiated, the filament inventory accumulated, and the staple fiber inventory decreased month - on - month. However, recently, trade frictions have escalated, terminal export orders have declined. As the terminal demand enters the off - season, it is expected that the loads of filaments and staple fibers may decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [14]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with paraxylene (PX) futures experiencing a slight increase, reaching a high of 6852.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 1.70% [1] - Recent supply of PX has increased, while PTA operating rates remain stable, leading to a marginal weakening of PX fundamentals. However, terminal demand is expected to recover seasonally in August and September, with an anticipated increase in polyester operating rates [1] - Overall, while terminal demand shows marginal improvement and short-term supply-demand dynamics provide some support, PX valuations have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, suggesting limited upward potential and a likely period of volatility ahead, particularly in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The decline in crude oil prices has led to an overall correction in the energy and chemical sector, with PTA facilities experiencing reduced production due to low processing fees, resulting in limited recovery [2] - Despite the recent tightening of PX supply, the PX-N price spread remains robust at 254 USD, while PX prices in the external market have seen a slight rebound to 833 USD, indicating a continued volatile market environment [2] - The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation as stakeholders await changes in PTA facility operations [2]

Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates decreased to 81% (-2.8%), while Asian PX operating rates increased to 74.1% (+1.1%) [2] - PTA operating rates rose to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] Price Trends - On July 9, Asian PX prices increased by $3/ton to $850/ton, equivalent to RMB 7009/ton [1] - The current spot market for PX is under pressure due to limited downstream polyester consumption and insufficient supply-side support [1] Market Outlook - PX supply-demand expectations remain tight due to new PTA production forecasts, while oil prices are expected to trend strong in the short term [4] - Strategies suggest a short-term long position for PX around 6600 [4]

Supply and Demand - PTA supply has increased significantly, with operating rates rising to 83% (+1.7%) [3] - Polyester operating rates remain stable at approximately 90.9% (-0.2%), with mixed impacts from maintenance and restarts [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in oil prices, affecting long fiber prices and production sales [3] Market Outlook - The supply-demand balance for PTA is expected to weaken, with downstream polyester manufacturers anticipating further production cuts [4] - Despite a tight spot market, the expectation of a decline in basis due to weakening supply-demand dynamics is noted [4] - The upcoming maintenance schedules for PTA facilities are limited, and new installations are expected to support PX demand, maintaining price support [4] - Oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances are anticipated to keep PTA prices relatively strong in the short term [4] Pricing and Costs - As of June 17, PTA spot processing fees are around 232 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 is 344 CNY/ton [2] - Spot market transactions for PTA are reported at prices between 4965 and 5050 CNY, with July and August contracts also showing varying price ranges [1]

Supply and Demand - The supply of PX has increased, with Asian PX operating rates rising to 87% (+4.9%) and domestic PX rates at 75.1% (+3.1%) [2] - Demand for PTA has also improved, with operating rates around 84%, as several PTA plants are restarting operations [2] Market Outlook - Following the recovery of PX profitability, supply has increased due to delayed maintenance and higher operating rates, leading to a weakening supply-demand balance [3] - Despite the recent pressure on PX prices, strong short-term demand from PTA restarts and new capacity coming online may limit further price declines [3] - The short-term strategy suggests monitoring support around 6400, with potential for price fluctuations, and a focus on short-term spread trades [3] Spot Market - On June 10, Asian PX prices rebounded, with spot prices for July at 815 and August at 813, while paper prices for September were at 800/805 [1] - The cost of PX rose by 9 USD/ton to 817 USD/ton, equivalent to 6765 RMB/ton [1]

Supply and Demand - Asian PX supply has increased, with overall load rising to 69.4% (+1.9%) and domestic PX load reaching 78% (+3.9%) [2] - Demand has seen a decrease, with PTA load dropping to 75.7% (-1.4%) due to the restart of 1 million tons of PTA capacity by Energetic and 1.5 million tons by Taiwan Chemical, while Dushan Energy's 3 million tons facility is under maintenance [2] Market Performance - On May 29, Asian PX prices rose by $16/ton to $852/ton, equivalent to 7061 RMB/ton, with PXN near $282/ton [1] - The current spot market for PX remains strong, with July prices negotiating at +20/+30, August at +13, and September at +10/+17 [1] - The market sentiment is buoyed by reduced tariff risks and rumors of some PTA manufacturers cutting PTA contract volumes due to PX shortages [1][3] Market Outlook - Despite the recent recovery in PX profitability and the gradual restart of previously maintained facilities, there is an expectation of weakening supply-demand dynamics due to downstream polyester production cuts [3] - Short-term PX market remains tight, with upward price movement limited by the anticipated supply-demand shift [3] - Strategies include monitoring pressure above 6800 for PX and looking for opportunities in PX-SC spread trading [3]