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油价大跌!7月13日油价迎大幅下跌,调价后全国地区油价价格
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 06:08
油价过山车:7月15日午夜或迎小幅下调,国际油价风云变幻莫测 引言: 盛夏时节,能源需求旺盛,国内油价的走势却如同过山车般跌宕起伏。在经历了一系列涨跌互现的调整后,7月15日午夜,国内油价或将迎来新一轮的调整 窗口。然而,国际原油市场的风云变幻,也为此次调价平添了几分不确定性。 一、国际油价的惊险跳水与反弹: 本轮调价周期伊始,受地缘政治因素的影响,国际油价一度气势如虹,WTI原油价格飙升超过5%,市场情绪高涨。然而,好景不长,原油库存数据出乎意 料地大幅增加,让市场对能源需求的旺盛程度产生了质疑。机构纷纷开始重新评估能源需求前景,对等关税的影响也逐渐显现,悲观情绪蔓延。 本周四,国际油价遭遇重挫,大幅下跌。正当市场一片哀嚎之际,周五剧情却出现反转。国际能源署突然发声,声称全球原油供应其实比大家想象中还要紧 张,并宣布将对加拿大加征35%的关税。这一消息犹如一剂强心针,瞬间止住了油价的颓势,国际油价应声反弹。 二、国内油价调整预测:145元/吨的降幅能否保住? 截至目前,本轮油价调整的统计周期已接近尾声,完成了约80%。根据当前的国际原油价格变动率-3.52%测算,专家预测,此次调整或将导致汽柴油价格每 吨降 ...
白银价格创13年新高!“避险需求+工业属性”双轮动驱使年内涨幅35%超黄金
智通财经网· 2025-07-14 06:29
今年以来,白银累计涨幅已达35%,不仅超过黄金28%的涨幅,更凸显其作为避险资产与工业原料的双重属性。市场分析指出,此轮上 涨主要受两方面因素推动:一是美国潜在关税政策引发市场担忧,推动资金转向贵金属避险;二是黄金价格持续攀升后,部分投资者转 向相对低估的白银市场。 智通财经APP获悉,现货白银价格在亚洲交易时段持续走高,盘中一度上涨1.6%,延续上周4%的涨幅,价格触及2011年以来最高水 平。 值得关注的是,当前市场紧张情绪已反映在交易细节中。一个月期白银隐含借贷成本飙升至6%以上,远超通常接近零的水平,显示实 物白银供应趋紧。与此同时,伦敦现货白银与纽约9月期货合约的价差持续扩大,这一现象与今年年初的情形高度相似,当时市场担忧 美国加征关税,导致黄金、白银从伦敦向美国的运输量激增,直接推高两地价差。 Phillip Nova分析师Priyanka Sachdeva指出,尽管现行关税政策未直接波及白银,但美国实需企业和工业用户已提前布局,试图在潜在政 策落地前确保供应安全。 白银市场的供需基本面进一步支撑价格。据白银协会数据,全球白银市场已连续五年呈现供不应求态势,太阳能电池板等新能源领域 的需求持续增长 ...
7月13日原油大涨5.1%,下周油价下调已锁定,跌幅“猛减”中
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-12 21:41
据机构分析,本轮周期内,国际油价趋势偏强,虽然,本周四原油价格出现大降的局面,但是,周五原油价格降幅全涨回落,周期内,原油价格创下阶段性 新高!支撑原油涨价的逻辑,主要受市场对于原油供应偏紧的担忧较高,由于能源需求进入夏季高峰阶段,虽然,上周美国原油库存意外增加707万桶,但 是,汽油库存却大幅下降!而受本周五国际能源署消息称,全球能源供应比表面更紧张,这进一步拉动原油市场偏强运行! 不过,市场对于原油上涨的持续性存在质疑,毕竟,美国对等关税即将全面启动,经济前景不确定性增加,而OPEC+8月日均增产达到54.8万桶,亚洲主流 经济体能源需求有下降的担忧,原油市场仍存后市下降的机会! 2025年7月13日,今天是星期天,农历六月十九!截至今日,距离7月15日,新一轮汽柴油调价,仅剩2天时间。本轮周期的10个工作日完成80%的历程,距 离调价也仅有2个工作日。当前,周期原油均价在68.12美元/桶,油价下降幅度超搁浅线,国内油价仍处于下降范畴! 【原油变化】据悉,上轮周期末,7月1日,国际原油市场,WTI原油价格65.11美元/桶,布伦特原油67.61美元/桶!截至本周五,7月11日,原油市场,WTI 原油单日 ...
电钴减产逐步兑现,钴价上行可期
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-07 02:50
Core Insights - The report indicates that cobalt production cuts are gradually being realized, leading to an expected increase in cobalt prices due to tightening supply conditions [1][6][98] - The report maintains a bullish stance on strategic metals, particularly recommending rare earths and antimony due to their rigid supply characteristics and potential for value reassessment [6][84] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 32,393.83 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 30,354.97 billion yuan [2] - In May, the production of electric vehicles in China saw a significant year-on-year increase, with sales reaching 1.27 million units, marking a 35% growth [22][24] - The photovoltaic sector also experienced robust growth, with newly installed capacity reaching 197.85 GW in the first five months of 2025, a 150% increase year-on-year [19] Cobalt Market Analysis - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its export ban on cobalt for an additional three months, which is expected to further tighten supply and drive prices upward [6][98] - In June, the production of electrolytic cobalt was reported at 2,730 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][106] - The price of standard-grade MB cobalt was reported at $15.78 per pound, down 0.79% from the previous period, while alloy-grade MB cobalt increased by 1.31% to $19.35 per pound [17][98] Rare Earth Market Insights - The report highlights that rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with the domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 446,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase [6][82] - The strategic value of rare earths is being reassessed due to export controls on medium and heavy rare earths, which are expected to lead to a more concentrated supply structure [84] Lithium Market Dynamics - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown signs of recovery, with a current price of 62,300 yuan per ton, up 2.05% [43][44] - Lithium hydroxide prices have slightly decreased by 0.74%, currently at 60,100 yuan per ton, while lithium concentrate prices increased by 3.80% to $653 per ton [44][70] Antimony and Other Metals - Antimony remains in a tight supply situation, with domestic antimony ingot prices at 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% [6][8] - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations, with SHFE tin prices at 267,300 yuan per ton, down 0.60%, while LME tin prices increased by 0.61% to $33,770 per ton [6][8]
原油大涨3%,开局大降245元/吨后,油价降幅大缩水,7月15日调价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 06:55
Group 1 - The domestic refined oil market has experienced a significant price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 235 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of nearly 0.2 yuan per liter [1][3] - The current year has seen a shift in the direction of oil price adjustments, with the decline in gasoline and diesel prices shrinking to 95 yuan and 90 yuan per ton respectively, leaving a minimal decrease of approximately 0.08 yuan per liter compared to the beginning of the year [1][3] - The upcoming oil price adjustment (the 14th of 2025) is anticipated to reflect a decrease, with the first working day of the pricing cycle showing a drop of 245 yuan per ton, which exceeds the previous increase [3][5] Group 2 - The recent surge in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2 dollars to 77.45 dollars and 79.11 dollars per barrel respectively, has influenced the domestic oil price outlook [3][5] - Factors supporting the rise in oil prices include reduced geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, alongside increased energy demand expectations as the Northern Hemisphere enters summer [5][7] - Despite the recent price increases, concerns remain regarding U.S. oil inventory levels and potential tariff measures, which may hinder a sustained upward trend in oil prices [5][7] Group 3 - The latest gasoline prices across various regions in China show that 92 gasoline is priced at 7.36 yuan per liter in Beijing, while 95 gasoline is at 7.84 yuan per liter [7] - The price adjustments reflect the most recent changes, with gasoline and diesel prices having increased by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton respectively [7]
周报:刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期,或提振钴价上行-20250622
Huafu Securities· 2025-06-22 13:07
行 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 22 日 业 研 究 有色金属 20250622 周报:刚果(金)钴出口禁令延期,或 提振钴价上行 投资要点: 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属:美国关税政策反复,黄金长期配置价值不改。近期多项美国 经济数据展现疲软态势,进一步加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧。经济数据 走弱将为美联储未来降息提供依据。根据钢联援引世界黄金协会调查数据, 全球73家央行中有76%预计未来五年将持续增持黄金以分散对美元资产的 依赖,凸显地缘因素及美元信用下滑背景下央行购金意愿。短期而言,美 "对等关税"的潜在风险及不确定性引发市场避险情绪支撑金价,整体呈 现易涨难跌格局;中长期而言,全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景 下,避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心,长期配置价值不改。个股:黄 金建议关注中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金,低估弹性关注株冶集团,其 他关注湖南黄金及招金矿业;白银建议关注兴业银锡、盛达资源。 分析师: 王保庆(S0210522090001) WBQ3918@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、地缘危机与美联储降息预期共振,黄金走强— —2025.06.14 2、美对华上调钢铁和铝关 ...
欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯:欧佩克预计到2050年,全球能源需求将增加24%。
news flash· 2025-06-10 16:42
欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯:欧佩克预计到2050年,全球能源需求将增加24%。 ...