Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. The fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.19, or 1.90%, to $63.93; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.15, or 1.75%, to $66.89; INE main crude oil futures fell 7.60 yuan, or 1.55%, to 481.9 yuan [1] - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.23 million barrels to 14.24 million barrels, a 9.49% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.65 million barrels to 9.33 million barrels, a 7.53% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.67 million barrels to 24.65 million barrels, a 6.36% decrease; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.21 million barrels to 48.21 million barrels, a 0.44% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 14, the 01 contract fell 44 yuan/ton to 2435 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic methanol production has increased, and enterprise profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Import unloading speed has accelerated, while port MTO plants have shut down, leading to rising port inventories. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. Currently, methanol valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 14, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 1726 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic urea production has increased from a decline, and enterprise profits are still low but expected to bottom out. Production is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and overall supply is abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. With the start of autumn fertilizer production, compound fertilizer production has been rising, and future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Currently, domestic demand is weak, and enterprise inventory reduction is slow. The overall urea valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to consider going long at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU trended weakly in a volatile manner [8] - **Industry Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. All - steel tire domestic and export orders were normal. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders were weak. As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, down 0.48 million tons, or 0.4%. China's dark rubber social inventory was 804,000 tons, down 0.13%; light rubber social inventory was 485,000 tons, down 0.8%. As of August 11, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [9] - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a neutral approach to rubber prices and wait and see for the time being. Consider taking advantage of the price difference between RU2601 and RU2509 for band - trading [10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 46 yuan to 4970 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 110 (+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 154 (- 3) yuan/ton [10] - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 79.5%, up 2.6% month - on - month. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8,000), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+54,000). Enterprise comprehensive profits have reached a high for the year, with high valuation pressure. Maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and production is at a five - year high. Multiple plants are expected to start production in the short term. Downstream domestic operating rates are at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended. It is recommended to wait and see [10] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [12] - **Fundamentals**: The macro - market sentiment was positive, and there was still support from the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential. The production of pure benzene decreased slightly, but supply remained abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, while styrene production continued to rise. Styrene port inventory decreased significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products declined. It is expected that the BZN spread will adjust upward, port inventory will decrease from a high level, and styrene prices will fluctuate upward following the cost side [13] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices of polyethylene fell [15] - **Fundamentals**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support from the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the downward valuation space of PE was limited. Trader inventory fluctuated at a high level, weakening price support. During the seasonal off - season, agricultural film orders were at a low level, and the overall operating rate declined. In August, there is a large capacity - release pressure, with a planned capacity release of 1.1 million tons. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices of polypropylene fell [16] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, leading to a marginal increase in propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate declined seasonally. In August, there is only a planned capacity release of 450,000 tons. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side is expected to dominate the market, and it is expected that polypropylene prices will follow the upward trend of crude oil in July [16] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 106 yuan to 6614 yuan, and PX CFR fell 7 dollars to 824 dollars. The basis was 161 yuan (+47), and the 11 - 1 spread was - 4 yuan (- 20) [18] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of PX in China was 82%, up 0.9% month - on - month; the Asian operating rate was 73.6%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Some plants increased production or restarted, while others shut down. PTA operating rate was 76.4%, up 1.7% month - on - month. In early August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 112,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5,000 tons. Inventory decreased by 210,000 tons month - on - month at the end of June. The PXN was 268 dollars (+4), and the naphtha crack spread was 82 dollars (- 3). PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and the valuation has support at the bottom but limited upside in the short term. It is recommended to consider going long following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 52 yuan to 4640 yuan, the East China spot price fell 45 yuan to 4650 yuan, the basis was - 14 yuan (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 26 yuan (+8) [20] - **Fundamentals**: PTA operating rate was 76.4%, up 1.7% month - on - month. Some plants shut down, while others restarted. Downstream operating rate was 89.4%, up 0.6% month - on - month. Terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates increased. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 33,000 tons on August 8. Spot processing fees fell by 7 yuan to 205 yuan, and futures processing fees rose by 17 yuan to 301 yuan. Supply is expected to increase due to new plant startups, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. PTA processing fees have limited room for operation. It is recommended to wait for an improvement in downstream orders during the peak season and consider going long following PX [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 39 yuan to 4367 yuan, the East China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4468 yuan, the basis was 82 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 47 yuan (+3) [21] - **Fundamentals**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 66.4%, down 2% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or reduced production. Downstream operating rate was 89.4%, up 0.6% month - on - month. Terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates increased. Import arrival forecast was 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons. Naphtha - based production profit was - 256 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 570 yuan, and coal - based production profit was 1051 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained flat, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased. It is expected that port inventory reduction will slow down, and the valuation is relatively high compared to the same period last year. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is pressure for the valuation to decline in the short term [21]