能源化工日报 2025-08-15 2025/08/15 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 1.19 美元，涨幅 1.90%，报 63.93 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 1.15 美元，涨幅 1.75%，报 66.89 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 7.60 元，跌幅 1.55%， 报 481.9 元。 数据方面：新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存累库 1.23 百万桶至 14.24 百万桶，环比 累库 9.49%；柴油库存累库 0.65 百万桶至 9.33 百万桶，环比累库 7.53%；燃料油库存去库 1.67 百万桶至 24.65 百万桶，环比去库 6.36%；总成品油累库 0.21 百万桶至 48.21 百万桶，环比累 库 0.44%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，且宏观偏空，但当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静 态基本面与动态预测仍表现良好。当前油价已经迎来左侧布局良机，基本面将支撑当前价格， 而如若地缘溢价重新打开 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 市场回归基本面，胶价或震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 11 日星期一 展望后市，在前期的宏观影响减弱之后，橡胶走势逐步回 归基本面。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期东南亚主产区天气 好转，国内产区也降雨减少，新胶持续放量，供给端存在一定 压力。7 月进口同比增加。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均有 微幅下降，半钢轮胎成品库存远高于去年同期，处于历史高位； 全轮胎企业成品去库速度放缓，同比略有提升。终端车市方面， 6 月汽车产销量有所回暖，7 月重卡销量环比小幅下降，同比大 幅上涨；1-7 月，重卡市场累计销量同比增长约 11%。上半年中 国轮胎出口同比小幅增长。库存方面，上周上期所库存持续下 降；上周中国天然橡胶社会库存和青岛总库存均小幅回落。 综上所述，近期宏观影响减弱，橡胶走势逐步回归基本面。 虽然近期终端需求有所转好，但是国内外主产地天气都有好转， 原料价格下跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Attention should be paid to China's purchases and weather in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the far - month supply - demand gap is the focus for layout [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include Sino - US peace talks expectations, strong far - month bullish sentiment in the weather market, and cost support from Brazil's export premium for far - month contracts. Bearish factors involve spot supply pressure on the basis, expected soybean arrivals, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed issue and potential supply recovery of rapeseed [5][6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are as follows: Soybean meal 01 closed at 3116, up 12 (0.39%); Soybean meal 05 at 2769, up 9 (0.33%); Soybean meal 09 at 3095, up 9 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 01 at 2444, up 7 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 05 at 2383, up 6 (0.25%); Rapeseed meal 09 at 2758, up 22 (0.8%) [7][9]. Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, are presented in the report. For example, the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 347, up 3 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.7627 and a weekly decrease of 0.004. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40.4599 and a weekly increase of 0.9124. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The egg futures price is falling. The supply pressure is large due to high in - production laying hen inventory and increasing small - sized egg supply, and the demand is weak in summer. The egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, with the low - price area limiting the decline, and the strong support area of the main egg futures contract price is 3370 - 3350 [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to oscillate upward as the US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China to promote Sino - US trade [7]. - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term, although it has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. It can be bought at a low price when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. - Iron ore is in a state of wide - range oscillation. Supply is increasing, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and the risk of over - valuation is increasing, so attention should be paid to steel mill profits [14][15]. - Glass is in an oscillating state, and it is still waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introduction. The supply side has no major cold - repair, factory inventory is high, and downstream demand is weak [18][19]. - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate or be strong in the short - term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the 7950 - 8000 pressure area, it can be short - sold lightly [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Egg Futures - Supply: High in - production laying hen inventory, increasing new - laying hens, and more small - sized egg supply lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is difficult to relieve as the culling of old hens is limited [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption, and school holidays reduce canteen purchases. Although low prices may stimulate promotions and restocking, overall demand is weak and difficult to change in the short - term [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward as the US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China to promote Sino - US trade [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term trend is still bullish, and it can be bought at a low price when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply is increasing, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The risk of over - valuation is increasing, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, it is in a wide - range oscillation [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side has no major cold - repair, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power and weak demand. It is still waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introduction, and technically, it is in an oscillating state [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - In the short - term, it may oscillate or be strong due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the 7950 - 8000 pressure area, it can be short - sold lightly [23].

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" - Date: April 28, 2025 - Research Focus: Analysis of the sharp decline in hog futures prices and technical analysis of various futures I. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report II. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in hog futures prices on April 24, 2025, was mainly caused by supply, demand, and market sentiment factors. Future hog supplies are expected to be sufficient, demand is weak, and previous bullish factors have been realized, leading to concerns about supply pressure and a subsequent price slump [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term is a complex shock pattern, and the low point of the previous day is crucial. Above this point, there is still upward momentum; below it indicates weakness [7] - Gold is facing a short - term technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains. However, the long - term upward logic remains intact. The low point of the previous day is a key point [11] - Iron ore prices may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill复产 cycle, but are constrained by long - term capacity expansion and other factors. The market is in a short - term wide - range shock [14] - Glass demand needs real estate stimulus or major policies to increase. The short - term trend is bearish [17] - Due to the approaching end of the Brazilian new - season soybean harvest and a bumper harvest, the upward space for domestic soybean (bean one) prices is limited [20] III. Summary by Category 1. Hog Futures - **Supply Side**: Official data shows that the number of breeding sows increased until the end of December last year, indicating an upward trend in theoretical hog slaughter until the end of October this year. The number of newborn piglets in March this year was close to the high level in 2023, putting pressure on the September contract. The weight gain and supply shift caused by hog backlogging and secondary fattening from February to April will increase future supply pressure [3] - **Demand Side**: Despite the approaching May Day holiday, high hog prices have reduced consumer purchasing willingness, and some consumers have chosen alternative meats. Current consumption is in a off - season, and daily pork demand is stable, unable to drive up prices [4] - **Market Sentiment**: Previous bullish factors for hog futures prices have been realized, and concerns about supply pressure in the production - increasing cycle have intensified, leading to the price slump [4] 2. Stock Index Futures - Policy side: The Ministry has denied Sino - US tariff negotiation consultations. Technically, the short - term is a complex shock pattern, and the low point of the previous day is important [7] - Market performance: The three major indexes showed continued divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up and the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, and CSI 1000 closing down [8] 3. Gold Futures - Short - term: Risk - aversion sentiment has ebbed, and there are many profit - taking positions. It is facing a technical correction. - Long - term: The long - term upward logic remains intact due to the damaged US dollar credit. The low point of the previous day is a key point for judging the short - term trend [11] 4. Iron Ore Futures - Short - term: Steel mills are in the复产 cycle, and short - term replenishment demand may support prices. - Long - term: Constrained by capacity expansion. Trade frictions may indirectly affect exports and steel demand, and the lack of substantial positive news from the Politburo meeting has weakened market sentiment. The short - term is in a wide - range shock [14] 5. Glass Futures - Demand: Demand needs real estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Currently, daily melting is at a low level, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation [17][18] - Technical: The price closed down and broke the low again, with a short - term bearish trend [17] 6. Bean One Futures - Supply: The Brazilian new - season soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is certain. Future exports will set a record, so domestic supply is not tight, and the upward space for bean one prices is limited [20]