1月7日，在撰写外汇教育文章时，业内常有一种困惑，即为什么如此多的交易者难以实现持续盈利。 Radex Markets瑞德克斯认为，讽刺的是，大多数人懂得并不少，但真正的问题在于他们不懂那些至关 重要的核心逻辑。在交易领域磨爬滚打14年后，获利应当成为一种本能，这并非依靠神奇指标或秘密策 略，而是源于理解了"大钱"是如何交易的。这是大多数散户交易者，尤其是新手最容易误入歧途的地 方。 一组统计数据应当让所有投资者警醒：银行交易员仅占外汇交易者的 5%，却控制着约 92% 的总交易 量，而剩下的 95% 则是投机者。如果你不理解这 5% 的群体如何运作，那么你的操作本质上只是 在"猜"。Radex Markets瑞德克斯认为，关于机构交易员最大的误区是认为他们整天在疯狂敲击买卖按钮 以赚取微利，实际上他们大部分活动只是在为客户执行订单，即所谓的"清理流量"，几乎从不为自营盘 频繁操作。 当涉及到银行自营交易这种真正决定奖金多寡的核心业务时，银行交易员通常每周仅进行两到三笔交 易。Radex Markets瑞德克斯表示，他们绝不会草率行事，更不会死盯五分钟图表进行"剥头皮"。他们是 有条不紊且高度挑剔的，只有在技 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： modest_ 来源：雪球 25年收益率15%左右 ， 赚钱主要靠电解铝 ， 招商银行 ， 港股高派息的小公司 ， 亏钱的是成都银行 、 格力 、 火电 。 在牛市的大环境下跑输 大盘 ， 和雪球满屏的高收益总结对比 ， 我这个收益实在有点拿不出手 。 24年吃了银行和红利板块的贝塔 ， 25年仍然重仓银行和吃股息的公司 ， 导致25年的业绩比较平庸 。 做的不好的另外的原因还有 忽视市场 ， 过 去自己主要把精力用在了基本面分析和估值判断 ， 忽略了市场 。 其实我以前的体系是有缺陷的 ， 一是因为价值是一个主观的东西 ， 有时候需要借助市场走势来确认 。 另外 ， 散户的研究是比较浅的 ， 完全忽 略市场很容易踩到价值陷阱 。 我这篇虽然反思多次提到了注重市场 ， 但是我担心会误导球友 ， 所以还是要强调 价值 （ 基本面和估值 ） 是基础 ， 在投资决策中估值和基本面 仍然占到90%的比重 ， 普通人坚持基本面和估值是盈利的基础 。 谈谈过去一年的教训和经验 ： 用我经常提 ...

文/王召金 进一步观察1小时级别行情，金价呈现阶梯式下行格局，反弹过程中量能持续萎缩，说明多头反攻意愿 薄弱。K线沿短期下行趋势线运行，每次反弹至趋势线附近均遇阻回落；KDJ指标在低位反复钝化后再 度向下发散，未出现明显的超买修复信号，暗示短线调整节奏仍在延续。当下1小时图的关键支撑位于 4280一线，若该位置失守，将加速向下方强支撑区间靠拢。 聚焦4小时级别走势，金价周五再度震荡走低，尽管单日跌幅有限，但技术形态已显疲态。若4300关键 支撑位被有效跌破，下方下行空间将全面打开。目前短期均线组已拐头向下形成压制，MACD指标运行 于0轴下方，空头动能呈现逐步增强的态势。综合基本面与多周期技术面分析，下周一黄金短线操作思 路建议以反弹做空为主、回调做多为辅。上方短期需重点关注4380-4400一线阻力区间，下方则需留意 4270-4250一线支撑区域的防守力度。 尽管当前市场利好因素云集，但黄金后续上涨空间或面临显著约束。一方面，前期累计的较大涨幅已积 累丰厚获利盘，部分交易员大概率选择落袋为安，机构投资者也可能基于仓位平衡需求进行投资组合再 调整，这将对金价形成直接抛压。另一方面，全球大宗商品交易龙头——芝 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 行业轮动如何做到既敏锐又不丢主线？ ——2025 年行业打分表结论回顾与策略反思 核心观点 2024 年 11 月，团队外发 2025 年年度策略报告《坐看云起，胜在今朝》，其中行业打 分表综合得分排名前 5 的为电新、军工、有色、机械、化工（通信、电子名列第 6 和 7），与实际年度涨跌幅正相关性较高。若以前五名行业指数构建等权模拟组合，截至 2025 年 12 月 23 日累计收益率为 44.8%，相对于沪深 300 超额为 22.2%，12 个日历 月中，有 11 个月获得正超额，月胜率超 90%，总体表现较优。若直接以每月发布的 《板块轮动月报》行业打分表前五名等权构建模拟组合，2025 年以来样本外收益率 34.7%，相对沪深 300 超额 14.8%。我们认为，牛市的趋势性行情中对行业基本面比 较的关注度应高于对交易面比较，发现景气逻辑主线买入并持有的策略优于轮动交易。 2026 年，我们认为值得持续给以较高基本面附加分的行业集中在顺周期和科技两方 面，叙事上紧扣顶层政策设计中频繁出现的三个提法：科技自立、内需、反内卷。 ❑ 2025 年行业回顾 20 ...

黄金在金融市场里一直扮演着避险的角色，我个人觉得这点特别吸引人，尤其在当下不确定性增多的时候。炒黄金有什么技巧？这问题问得很 好，其实没有一成不变的答案，但如果非要说，我认为最可靠的还是从宏观大局入手，再辅以一些实用方法。眼下现货黄金价格还在高位徘徊， 12月下旬一度触及4400美元上方，这背后既有避险情绪，也有实际需求的支撑，让人忍不住多思考几步。 炒黄金有什么技巧之一：基本面分析方法 我一直相信，黄金价格的长期走势离不开宏观环境。利率高低、通胀预期、地缘局势，这些因素往往决定了大方向。比如利率实际下降时，持有 黄金的成本就低了，自然容易上涨。美联储的政策转向尤其关键，降息周期里黄金的表现通常不错。另外，全球央行这些年的购金动作，也给了 市场一个稳定的底部支撑——2025年前三季度净购金量达到634吨，这数字本身就说明了不少问题。 地缘事件的影响有时来得突然，却能快速推高价格。我的经验是，与其追逐热点，不如养成习惯定期关注几项核心数据：美国就业、通胀报告、 美元指数走势。这样做下来，趋势的转向往往能提前察觉一些，而不是事后才后悔。 金盛贵金属平台上的实时行情工具，我觉得用起来挺顺手，能帮投资者把这些基本面思 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年12月24日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为048元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为690.33元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

谈及近年来红枣期货市场变化，参赛者普遍感受到市场正在经历一场深刻的变化：供需格局波动加剧、 价格季节性特征强化、参与者结构多元化。 第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛暨第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛已圆满收官，其中首次设 立的"同舟杯"专项奖以突出的产业烙印与精密的赛制设计，成为连接金融交易与实体产业的重要桥梁。 近日，"同舟杯"红枣组的两位杰出交易者接受期货日报记者采访，分享了他们在红枣这个独具中国特色 的期货品种上的实战心得。 顺应天时的交易节奏 "从供应端来看，红枣价格波动明显，主要原因在于天气变化。2023年红枣因天气灾害减产，2024年恢 复性增产，预计2025年将再次减产。同时，红枣需求弹性也在增大，消费者对价格的敏感度不断提高， 被动消费比例持续上升。在价格波动特性方面，红枣期货波动率显著上升，今年上半年红枣期货主力合 约日均波动率为2.8%。"昵称为"hero"的参赛者表示，总体而言，红枣市场已形成"供应波动大、价格敏 感度高、产业参与深"的新特征。 对于风险控制，"徐霞客"和"hero"都认为，严格的仓位控制是期货交易的"生命线"。 "hero"表示，参与红枣期货交易要实时跟踪关键期的天气 ...

沪深交易所数据显示，A股散户亏损率常年居高不下。很多人抱着"赚快钱"的心态入市，最后却沦为"韭菜"。其实散户输钱，大多栽在这六个可防可控的坑 里。 第四个坑，迷信小道消息当"接盘侠"。40%的亏损源于大V荐股、股吧传言。机构早就把公开信息消化完毕，散户跟风入场时，往往站在股价高位。数据显 示，靠消息炒股成为"接盘侠"的概率超80%。 第五个坑，加杠杆赌一把满盘皆输。使用杠杆的散户爆仓概率高达78%。涨时贪心加杠杆追高，跌时被强制平仓加速亏损，不仅本金亏光，还可能倒欠平台 钱，一次失误就彻底出局。 第六个坑，不懂基本面盲目跟风。70%的散户看不懂PE、PB等核心指标，只看股价涨跌决策。忽视行业周期和公司质地，退潮时接盘主跌板块，踩雷风险 比专业投资者高3倍。就像有人听"新能源有利好"就满仓，连公司负债率都不看，利好兑现后只能被套。 其实散户输钱的核心，是"纪律缺失+认知不足"。前三个坑都属操作层面问题，守住这三道防线，就能避开80%的亏损陷阱。 想少亏钱，关键在建立简单体系：先设止损止盈线，比如亏15%无条件离场、赚20%分批止盈；再界定能力圈，上班族别追热点打板，深耕熟悉领域更靠 谱；最好别满仓，留30%现金 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation on the strong side", with an overall "oscillation thinking" [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1125.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.0% [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Recent coking coal production has slightly decreased, while imported Mongolian coal has increased significantly. The supply - side support is limited, and downstream coke production has weakened, with no obvious improvement in the fundamentals [5] - **Market Performance**: As the market trades on supply - side pressure, the long - short game in the coking coal futures has increased recently, and the price has started to oscillate at a low level [5] Coke (J) - **Price**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, both supply and demand of coke have decreased, and the reduction on the demand side is more obvious, with relatively weak fundamentals [6] - **Market Performance**: In December, domestic high - level meetings have not released direct benefits for coke. The market maintains the fundamental logic. Affected by double pressure from the cost and demand sides, the coke futures will oscillate at a low level in the short term [6]