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中国海油(600938):油气产量高速增长,部分抵消油价波动压力
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-28 15:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 100.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 33 billion CNY, down 17.6% year-on-year [1] - The significant growth in natural gas production is attributed to the full production of the "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project, with a year-on-year increase of 13.6% in natural gas production [2] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in unit depreciation, operating expenses, and management fees [3] - The average realized price of oil in Q2 2025 was 65.77 USD per barrel, down 19.7% year-on-year, but the discount to Brent crude has narrowed significantly [4] - Capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 57.6 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.8% year-on-year [5] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 128.3 billion CNY, 133.1 billion CNY, and 135.8 billion CNY respectively, with a PE ratio of 9.6 times based on the August 28, 2025 stock price [5] - The projected dividend yield for A/H shares is 4.8% and 7.1% respectively based on a dividend payout ratio of 45.5% [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s revenue for 2025 is estimated at 404.86 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.72% [6] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 128.31 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 6.98% compared to 2024 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.70 CNY [6]