市公司 THE THE 2025 年 10 月 31 日 中国海滩 (600938) -业绩表现稳健,现金流环比显著提升 证券分析师 | 报告原因： 有业绩公布需要点评 | | --- | | 买入(维持) | | 市场数据: | 2025 年 10 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 27.01 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 29.81/23.11 | | 市净率 | 1.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.71 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 80,760 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,986.90/13,532.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.53 | | 资产负债率% | 30.09 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 47,530/2,990 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/44,540 | 年内股价与大盛对比走势： 相关研究 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@s ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 100.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 33 billion CNY, down 17.6% year-on-year [1] - The significant growth in natural gas production is attributed to the full production of the "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project, with a year-on-year increase of 13.6% in natural gas production [2] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in unit depreciation, operating expenses, and management fees [3] - The average realized price of oil in Q2 2025 was 65.77 USD per barrel, down 19.7% year-on-year, but the discount to Brent crude has narrowed significantly [4] - Capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 57.6 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.8% year-on-year [5] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 128.3 billion CNY, 133.1 billion CNY, and 135.8 billion CNY respectively, with a PE ratio of 9.6 times based on the August 28, 2025 stock price [5] - The projected dividend yield for A/H shares is 4.8% and 7.1% respectively based on a dividend payout ratio of 45.5% [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s revenue for 2025 is estimated at 404.86 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.72% [6] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 128.31 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 6.98% compared to 2024 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.70 CNY [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.47 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has experienced rapid growth in oil and gas production, with a net production of 385 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [2]. - Despite a decline in oil prices, the company has managed to maintain a relatively smaller decrease in net profit due to effective cost control measures [1][3]. - The company has a strong dividend payout ratio of 45.6%, with a projected dividend yield of 2.6% for A-shares and 3.9% for H-shares [4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 207.61 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.53 billion CNY, down 12.8% year-on-year [1]. - The Brent crude oil price averaged 69.15 USD per barrel in the first half of 2025, a decline of 13.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s cost control measures have led to a decrease in per barrel costs, with operating expenses at 6.76 USD per barrel, down 0.7% year-on-year [3]. Production and Exploration - The company achieved a net oil production of 296 million barrels, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, and natural gas production of 516.3 billion cubic feet, up 12.0% year-on-year [2]. - The company has made five new discoveries in domestic exploration and signed multiple contracts for overseas exploration, including a contract in Kazakhstan and two in Indonesia [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 122.19 billion CNY, 126.39 billion CNY, and 130.20 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.57 CNY, 2.66 CNY, and 2.74 CNY for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 10, and 9 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in oil and gas production, with a net production of 189 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit, the company continues to demonstrate strong cost control, with a decrease in per barrel cost to $27.03, down 2.0% year-on-year [4]. - The company is advancing new projects that will support continued production growth, including several domestic and international projects with significant production capacities [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1068.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 365.6 billion yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s oil price realization was $72.65 per barrel, a decline of 7.7% year-on-year, while natural gas prices increased by 1.2% to $7.78 per thousand cubic feet [2]. Production and Projects - The company achieved a net production of 1.89 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2025, with domestic and overseas production contributing 69.3% and 30.7% respectively [2]. - Seven new projects have been put into production, contributing to the overall production capacity, including significant contributions from the Bohai Zhong 26-6 oil field and the Brazil Buzios 7 project [3]. Cost Management - The company has effectively managed costs, with a reduction in operational expenses and taxes, leading to a lower cost per barrel [4]. - The report highlights the intention of the controlling shareholder to increase their stake in the company, indicating confidence in its future performance [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong dividend characteristics and benefit from a high oil price environment, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 1268.78 billion, 1306.44 billion, and 1345.41 billion yuan respectively [5][6].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 中国海油（600938.SH） 优于大市 油气产量稳增长，2025 年第一季度实现归母净利润 365 亿元 公司 2025 年第一季度实现归母净利润 365 亿元，盈利韧性凸显，业绩超预 期。公司 2025 年第一季度实现营业收入 1068.6 亿元（同比-4.1%，环比 +13.1%），归母净利润 365.3 亿元（同比-8.0%，环比+71.9%），扣非 归母净利润 370.3 亿元（同比-6.2%，环比+111.2%）。2025 年第一季度 布伦特原油期货均价为 75.0 美元/桶（同比-8.3%），公司受益于油气 产销量上升、降本增效、人民币贬值、实现气价上升等因素，部分抵销 了实现油价下跌的影响，业绩超预期。 公司油气净产量稳步增长，成本管控成效显著。公司 2025 年第一季度油气 销售收入为 882.7 亿元（同比-1.9%，环比+4.9%），油气净产量达到 188.8 百万桶油当量（同比+4.8%），其中国内净产量 130.8 百万桶油当量（同比 +6.2%），占比 69.3%，主要得益于渤中 19-6 等油气田贡献，海外净产量 58.0 百万桶油当量（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations despite a decline in oil prices, with a gross margin of 54.65%, up 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased natural gas prices and reduced oil costs [7] - The company is expected to maintain a stable profit level with Brent crude oil prices projected to fluctuate between $60 and $80 per barrel [7] - Capital expenditures remain high, with a target of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2025, supporting steady growth in oil and gas production [7] - The company demonstrates strong cost control, with a barrel oil cost of $27.03, down 2.03% year-on-year [7] - Operating cash flow remains robust, with a net cash flow of 57.274 billion yuan in Q1 2025, allowing for sustained high dividend levels [7] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 139.9 billion, 144.8 billion, and 149 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 9X, 8X, and 8X respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 444.457 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 139.927 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [6] - Earnings per share are expected to be 2.94 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 51.6% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, Zhongman Petroleum achieved a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 17%, reaching 943 million yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 34% to 230 million yuan [1][3] - The increase in profits is primarily attributed to the engineering segment, which saw a substantial recovery compared to the previous year [3] - The company’s oil and gas production increased by 28.51% year-on-year, totaling 277,200 tons, with crude oil production at 218,800 tons, reflecting a 10.62% increase [3] - The report anticipates continued strong performance for the company, projecting net profits of 903 million yuan, 1.181 billion yuan, and 1.697 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.5%, 30.8%, and 43.6% [3][4] Financial Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 45.98% and a net margin of 26.17%, with financial expenses turning negative at -22.63 million yuan compared to 39.27 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.95 yuan, 2.56 yuan, and 3.67 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.03, 6.14, and 4.28 [3][4] - The report indicates that the company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 4.485 billion yuan in 2025 to 6.766 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q1 2025, Zhongman Petroleum achieved a revenue of 943 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.96%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan, up 34% year-on-year and 301% quarter-on-quarter [1][3] - The report indicates that the increase in net profit is primarily driven by the engineering segment, which saw significant profit growth compared to the previous year when it faced challenges due to rig relocations [3] - The company’s oil and gas production totaled 277,200 tons in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.51%, with crude oil production at 218,800 tons, up 10.62% year-on-year [3] - The report notes that the development of the Iraq oil and gas blocks is progressing steadily, with the first joint management meeting for the EBN and MF projects completed, which is expected to positively impact future operational performance [3] Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the total revenue is projected to grow from 3,732 million yuan in 2023 to 6,766 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.7%, 10.8%, 8.5%, 18.7%, and 27.1% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 812 million yuan in 2023 to 1,697 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.3%, -10.6%, 24.5%, 30.8%, and 43.6% [4] - The report projects the earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 1.76 yuan in 2023 to 3.67 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 8.94 to 4.28 [4][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the company's resource endowment advantages, with dividends and share buybacks enhancing shareholder returns [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 420.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.9 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year [6] - The company’s net production exceeded annual targets, with proven reserves reaching a historical high of 727.1 million tons of oil equivalent, resulting in a reserve replacement ratio of 167% [6] - The company maintains a low cost advantage, with a cost of 28.52 USD per barrel of oil equivalent in 2024, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [6] - The operating cash flow increased by 5.32% year-on-year to 220.9 billion yuan, reflecting stable operations despite declining oil prices [6] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, with a planned dividend of 1.4 HKD per share in 2024 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 444.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 139.9 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 1.4% increase year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share are expected to be 2.94 yuan in 2025 [5] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 51.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.0% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 9 for 2025 and 2026, and 8 for 2027 [6]