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中国海油(600938):Q3净利润324亿符合预期
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-31 08:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 net profit was 32.4 billion, which met expectations, while revenue reached 104.9 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. However, net profit decreased by 12.16% year-on-year [1]. - The total oil and gas production in Q3 2025 was 194 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with oil and gas production increasing by 7.1% and 10.4% respectively [2]. - The cost per barrel of oil for Q1-Q3 2025 was $27.35, a decrease of $0.79 year-on-year, but there was a slight increase of $1.31 per barrel in Q3 due to production declines caused by typhoons [3]. - The realized oil price in Q3 2025 was $66.62 per barrel, with a discount of $1.6 compared to Brent, showing a year-on-year narrowing of the discount but a slight widening compared to the previous quarter. The realized natural gas price remained stable at 1.96 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 was 171.7 billion, down 6% year-on-year, while capital expenditure was 86 billion, down 10% year-on-year, with a full-year capital expenditure plan of 125-135 billion [5]. Financial Data Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 128.3 billion, 133.1 billion, and 135.8 billion respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 and 6.9 times based on the stock price as of October 30, 2025. The dividend yield is projected at 4.5% and 6.6% for 2025 [5]. - The financial data for the years 2023 to 2027 shows a projected revenue of 404.9 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -3.72%. The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 278.6 billion, with a net profit of 128.3 billion [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.70 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 10.01 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.73 [6].
中国海油(600938):产量高增速,业绩韧性足
Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - CNOOC reported a revenue of 207.61 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4][12] - Despite a decline in oil prices, the company's performance showed resilience, with a smaller drop in net profit compared to the decrease in oil prices [13] - The company has successfully increased production, with total oil and gas output reaching 196 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [14] - CNOOC continues to maintain a high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 31.64 billion yuan for H1 2025, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 45.5% [15] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 132.3 billion yuan, 136 billion yuan, and 140.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.78 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 2.95 yuan [16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, CNOOC's revenue was 207.61 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4][12] - Q2 2025 revenue was 100.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year and 5.7% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 32.97 billion yuan, down 17.6% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter [12] Production and Cost Management - CNOOC's total oil and gas production in Q2 2025 was 196 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7.3% year-on-year, with crude oil production at 151 million barrels, up 5.5%, and natural gas production at 263.2 billion cubic feet, up 13.7% [14] - Capital expenditure in Q2 2025 was 29.89 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, but still at a high level to support business operations [14] Dividend Policy - The company proposed a cash dividend of 31.64 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a dynamic dividend yield of 4.89% for A shares and 6.97% for H shares [15] Earnings Forecast - CNOOC's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 132.3 billion yuan, 136 billion yuan, and 140.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.78 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 2.95 yuan [16]
中国海油(600938):油气产量高速增长,部分抵消油价波动压力
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-28 15:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 100.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 33 billion CNY, down 17.6% year-on-year [1] - The significant growth in natural gas production is attributed to the full production of the "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project, with a year-on-year increase of 13.6% in natural gas production [2] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in unit depreciation, operating expenses, and management fees [3] - The average realized price of oil in Q2 2025 was 65.77 USD per barrel, down 19.7% year-on-year, but the discount to Brent crude has narrowed significantly [4] - Capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 57.6 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.8% year-on-year [5] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 128.3 billion CNY, 133.1 billion CNY, and 135.8 billion CNY respectively, with a PE ratio of 9.6 times based on the August 28, 2025 stock price [5] - The projected dividend yield for A/H shares is 4.8% and 7.1% respectively based on a dividend payout ratio of 45.5% [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s revenue for 2025 is estimated at 404.86 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.72% [6] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 128.31 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 6.98% compared to 2024 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.70 CNY [6]
中国海油(600938):Q1净利润366亿,成本竞争优势进一步巩固
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-30 13:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price based on expected returns exceeding 20% over the next six months [7][16]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 36.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with revenues of 106.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.14% in revenue and 7.95% in net profit [1]. - Domestic oil production increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with domestic production growing by 4.4%, primarily due to contributions from the Bohai Zhong 19-6 oil and gas field [2]. - The average realized oil price was 72.65 USD per barrel, down 7.7% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the discount to Brent crude [4]. Financial Performance - The main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 27.03 USD, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, attributed to lower oil prices and changes in production structure [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 128.3 billion yuan, 133.1 billion yuan, and 135.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.3 and 5.8 times for A/H shares [4]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is 4.8% based on a 45% payout ratio [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to decline by 3.44% in 2025, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.70 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 9.27 [5]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with an asset-liability ratio of 28.74% and a net asset value per share of 16.49 yuan [7].