Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of soymeal remains loose, with sufficient imported soybeans, stable production, and high inventory, while demand is in a seasonal slump and external factors exert long - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Rapeseed meal supply is currently tight but may face increased pressure in the long - term due to potential policy changes, and demand is weak in the winter [3] - For cooking oils, different oils have different supply - demand situations and are affected by various factors such as production, inventory, consumption, and policies [37][38][39] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soymeal - **Supply**: Imported soybean arrivals are sufficient (6 million tons expected in January), oil mill operating rates are around 54%, production is stable, and inventory, though decreasing for two consecutive weeks, remains at a historically high level (1.05 million tons) [2] - **Demand**: Downstream feed enterprises have high inventory (physical inventory up 55% year - on - year), and pig farming losses suppress procurement enthusiasm. Demand is in a seasonal slump, and purchases are mainly made on a need - to - use basis [2] - **External Factors**: The expected high yield of South American soybeans (Brazil's production is expected to be 177 million tons) suppresses US soybean prices, reducing domestic import costs and exerting long - term downward pressure on soymeal [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a historical low (coastal oil mill inventory is close to zero), and crushing volume has stagnated for 6 consecutive weeks. It currently relies on port granular rapeseed meal inventory (474,200 tons), but delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals have led to a tight supply [3] - **Demand**: Aquaculture is in a winter slump, with daily提货量 only in the hundreds of tons, and the demand for poultry feed addition is limited. The widening price difference between soymeal and rapeseed meal weakens the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal [3] - **Policy Variables**: The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has raised expectations of a loosening of rapeseed import policies. If anti - dumping tax adjustments are implemented, long - term supply pressure will increase significantly, suppressing price flexibility [3] Cooking Oils Soybean Oil - **Supply**: The weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, and soybean oil output is stable. However, inventory has been decreasing, and pre - Spring Festival stocking supports the spot market [37] - **Demand**: Catering consumption is gradually recovering, and purchases of small - packaged oils are increasing, but terminal stocking efforts are lower than expected, and the spot market remains strong [37] - **External Linkage**: Crude oil may have a certain impact [37] Palm Oil - **Supply**: Malaysia's inventory reached 2.835 million tons in December, a five - year high, and domestic port inventory has also increased to 765,000 tons, indicating significant supply pressure [38] - **Demand**: The recovery of domestic catering consumption has driven edible demand, and the biodiesel blending policy supports industrial demand, but high inventory suppresses price flexibility [38] - **Policy Game**: Indonesia plans to raise the export tax from 10% to 15%, and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain [38] Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: Domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased by 48% year - on - year (2.97 million tons accumulated in 2025), and rapeseed oil production has decreased significantly. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed imports (estimated at 300,000 - 400,000 tons) will ease the raw material shortage, and long - term supply is expected to be loose [39] - **Demand**: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm, the basis has declined, and the spot market is weakening [39] - **Policy Impact**: Expectations of improved China - Canada trade relations are rising. If Canadian rapeseed imports resume, it will further suppress the premium of rapeseed oil, and prices will face long - term downward pressure [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Oilseeds - The market lacks obvious drivers, with focus on US trade negotiations. The US - Japan tariff agreement raises expectations for negotiations with the EU and China, which is beneficial for soybean exports and price support. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68% (lower than the expected 71% but still at a five - year high), and late - month high temperatures and rainfall in the production areas have limited impact on soil moisture [6]. - In the Dalian soybean meal market, the upcoming China - US tariff consultations next week have led to the withdrawal of both long and short positions for risk - avoidance. China's "anti - involution" policy for the pig industry weakens the demand expectation for soybean meal, and enterprises' procurement of Argentine soybean meal diversifies the supply. Spot prices are under pressure and have declined, with high inventories at oil mills leading to a temporary supply surplus, and weak momentum from end - users to chase high prices. Spot prices are hovering between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [6]. - For rapeseed meal, during the week, influenced by China's "anti - involution" policy for pigs (weakening soybean meal demand) and large enterprises' procurement of Argentine soybean meal (strengthening supply), short positions entered the market, and it followed the decline of Dalian soybean meal. The uncertainty of the China - US trade consultation results may cause significant price fluctuations [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - International negative factors include the expected high yield of US soybeans and the poor progress of China - US negotiations, which are negative for CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. Trade negotiations are also dragging down NYMEX crude oil. Domestically, oil mills face high inventory pressure, but the market expects demand to improve in August [40]. - In the short - term, soybean oil futures have declined slightly this week, dragged down by the futures market. Purchasing is light, and downstream procurement has slowed down, with the average daily factory transactions decreasing week - on - week. Currently, at the end of July, oil mills are mainly focused on urging提货, and there are few contracts for sale. The pressure to urge提货 is relatively small in Jiangsu and greatest in Guangdong and Guangxi. After August, supported by procurement costs, it will be difficult for traders to easily lower the basis. Although a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will arrive at ports, there is uncertainty about China - US negotiations and soybean imports in the fourth quarter. Coupled with the start of universities and Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling, the spot basis will adjust in the short - term and rise in the medium - to - long - term [40]. Palm Oil - Internationally, the palm oil market is in a high - level oscillatory adjustment. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month inventory forecast. If production increases and exports decline, leading to a continuous increase in inventory, it may fall below 4200 ringgit and continue to weaken. If it stabilizes at 4200 ringgit, there is still a chance to test 4500 ringgit [41]. - In the domestic market (Dalian palm oil), if Malaysian palm oil falls below 4200 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may follow and test 8500 - 8600 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil stabilizes and strengthens between 4200 - 4250 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may stand firm at 8900 yuan and then rise. It is also noted that due to the large previous increase, risks should be carefully considered [45]. Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil futures and the spot market follow the price changes of the futures. The basis quotation has been lowered by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, and the spot prices at major ports such as Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi have decreased by 120 - 160 yuan/ton month - on - month. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal acceptance willingness, weak transactions in many areas, and the basis continuing to decline slightly [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oilseeds Soybean Meal - **Market Drivers**: Focus on US trade negotiations, with the US - Japan tariff agreement raising expectations for other negotiations and supporting exports. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68% [6]. - **Domestic Market**: China - US tariff consultations lead to risk - avoidance by traders. The "anti - involution" policy for pigs weakens demand, and procurement of Argentine soybean meal diversifies supply. Spot prices are between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Price Fluctuations**: Influenced by domestic policies and international trade uncertainties, it may experience significant fluctuations [6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Movement**: Followed the decline of Dalian soybean meal this week due to domestic policy and supply factors. Uncertainty in China - US trade may cause large price swings [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed to around 300 yuan/ton, leading to reduced rapeseed meal transactions. In Fujian, inventories are low, and quotes are scarce. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis oscillates within a narrow range [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - **International Factors**: Negative factors include US soybean high - yield expectations, poor China - US negotiation progress, and their impact on related markets [40]. - **Domestic Situation**: High inventory pressure at oil mills, but expected demand improvement in August. Short - term futures decline, light purchasing, and different levels of pressure to urge提货 in different regions [40]. - **Future Outlook**: After the end of the urging提货 period in August, prices may oscillate and rise with the improvement of demand. Spot basis is expected to adjust in the short - term and rise in the medium - to - long - term [40]. Palm Oil - **International Market**: High - level oscillatory adjustment, with inventory forecast at the end of the month being a key factor affecting price trends [41]. - **Domestic Market**: Influenced by Malaysian palm oil prices, with different price trends expected based on the performance of Malaysian palm oil [45]. Rapeseed Oil - **Market Trend**: Futures and spot prices decline, with the basis quotation and major port spot prices decreasing. The basis of East China crude rapeseed oil is near par, and transactions are weak [42].