1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Oilseeds - The market lacks obvious drivers, with focus on US trade negotiations. The US - Japan tariff agreement raises expectations for negotiations with the EU and China, which is beneficial for soybean exports and price support. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68% (lower than the expected 71% but still at a five - year high), and late - month high temperatures and rainfall in the production areas have limited impact on soil moisture [6]. - In the Dalian soybean meal market, the upcoming China - US tariff consultations next week have led to the withdrawal of both long and short positions for risk - avoidance. China's "anti - involution" policy for the pig industry weakens the demand expectation for soybean meal, and enterprises' procurement of Argentine soybean meal diversifies the supply. Spot prices are under pressure and have declined, with high inventories at oil mills leading to a temporary supply surplus, and weak momentum from end - users to chase high prices. Spot prices are hovering between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [6]. - For rapeseed meal, during the week, influenced by China's "anti - involution" policy for pigs (weakening soybean meal demand) and large enterprises' procurement of Argentine soybean meal (strengthening supply), short positions entered the market, and it followed the decline of Dalian soybean meal. The uncertainty of the China - US trade consultation results may cause significant price fluctuations [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - International negative factors include the expected high yield of US soybeans and the poor progress of China - US negotiations, which are negative for CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. Trade negotiations are also dragging down NYMEX crude oil. Domestically, oil mills face high inventory pressure, but the market expects demand to improve in August [40]. - In the short - term, soybean oil futures have declined slightly this week, dragged down by the futures market. Purchasing is light, and downstream procurement has slowed down, with the average daily factory transactions decreasing week - on - week. Currently, at the end of July, oil mills are mainly focused on urging提货, and there are few contracts for sale. The pressure to urge提货 is relatively small in Jiangsu and greatest in Guangdong and Guangxi. After August, supported by procurement costs, it will be difficult for traders to easily lower the basis. Although a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will arrive at ports, there is uncertainty about China - US negotiations and soybean imports in the fourth quarter. Coupled with the start of universities and Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling, the spot basis will adjust in the short - term and rise in the medium - to - long - term [40]. Palm Oil - Internationally, the palm oil market is in a high - level oscillatory adjustment. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month inventory forecast. If production increases and exports decline, leading to a continuous increase in inventory, it may fall below 4200 ringgit and continue to weaken. If it stabilizes at 4200 ringgit, there is still a chance to test 4500 ringgit [41]. - In the domestic market (Dalian palm oil), if Malaysian palm oil falls below 4200 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may follow and test 8500 - 8600 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil stabilizes and strengthens between 4200 - 4250 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may stand firm at 8900 yuan and then rise. It is also noted that due to the large previous increase, risks should be carefully considered [45]. Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil futures and the spot market follow the price changes of the futures. The basis quotation has been lowered by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, and the spot prices at major ports such as Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi have decreased by 120 - 160 yuan/ton month - on - month. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal acceptance willingness, weak transactions in many areas, and the basis continuing to decline slightly [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oilseeds Soybean Meal - **Market Drivers**: Focus on US trade negotiations, with the US - Japan tariff agreement raising expectations for other negotiations and supporting exports. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68% [6]. - **Domestic Market**: China - US tariff consultations lead to risk - avoidance by traders. The "anti - involution" policy for pigs weakens demand, and procurement of Argentine soybean meal diversifies supply. Spot prices are between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Price Fluctuations**: Influenced by domestic policies and international trade uncertainties, it may experience significant fluctuations [6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Movement**: Followed the decline of Dalian soybean meal this week due to domestic policy and supply factors. Uncertainty in China - US trade may cause large price swings [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed to around 300 yuan/ton, leading to reduced rapeseed meal transactions. In Fujian, inventories are low, and quotes are scarce. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis oscillates within a narrow range [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - **International Factors**: Negative factors include US soybean high - yield expectations, poor China - US negotiation progress, and their impact on related markets [40]. - **Domestic Situation**: High inventory pressure at oil mills, but expected demand improvement in August. Short - term futures decline, light purchasing, and different levels of pressure to urge提货 in different regions [40]. - **Future Outlook**: After the end of the urging提货 period in August, prices may oscillate and rise with the improvement of demand. Spot basis is expected to adjust in the short - term and rise in the medium - to - long - term [40]. Palm Oil - **International Market**: High - level oscillatory adjustment, with inventory forecast at the end of the month being a key factor affecting price trends [41]. - **Domestic Market**: Influenced by Malaysian palm oil prices, with different price trends expected based on the performance of Malaysian palm oil [45]. Rapeseed Oil - **Market Trend**: Futures and spot prices decline, with the basis quotation and major port spot prices decreasing. The basis of East China crude rapeseed oil is near par, and transactions are weak [42].