油料周报 油料产业周报 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力 ...

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油料周报 油料产业周报 2025/12/5 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 从供需结构来看，由于供给端压力释放与需求刚性增长不足的矛盾主导，叠加国际市场联动与政策托底博弈。供给压力成为价格核 心制约...... 油料供需平稳，维持震荡格局 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 期货研究报告 | 油料年报 2025-11-30 油料供需平稳，维持震荡格局 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall inventory pressure in the oilseed industry remains high, but the absolute price is too low to have much downward space, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. Attention should be paid to the import volume of US soybeans from December to January, as well as the import changes of rapeseed under the influence of tariffs. In the oil market, different oils face different supply - demand situations, with some facing supply pressure and some having relatively strong price patterns due to supply tightening [5][40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - USDA's current report lowered US soybean production, inventory, and exports, but the figures were lower than market expectations. Brazil's soybean sowing is going smoothly, and an increase in area and production is expected, which may put pressure on supply from March to May next year [5]. - Domestic port soybean inventory is sufficient, at a three - year high, and supply pressure is large. The loss in the aquaculture industry has suppressed purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in weak demand [5]. - The progress of domestic purchases of US soybeans is still slow, and attention should be paid to the purchase volume from December to January [5]. - Import reduction has led to domestic rapeseed inventory approaching zero, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by import tariffs. The import of Canadian rapeseed has not been resumed, and the arrival of Australian imports has increased recently. The expected rapeseed import volume in December and January remains at the historical average [5]. - With the end of the peak season for aquatic product demand, demand support will further weaken [5]. 3.2 Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: Supply has improved with the increase in crushing, but overall inventory pressure is large. Overseas biodiesel topics have slowed down, and the decline in US soybean oil prices has put pressure on import costs. The weakening of the biodiesel topic in the crude oil market has also had a short - term impact. However, the approaching year - end demand peak season provides some support for demand [39][40]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's monthly production and inventory have increased month - on - month, with sufficient inventory in the main production areas and obvious supply pressure. Short - term Chinese imports have slowed down, and demand is weak. However, the approaching Spring Festival demand peak season may drive demand improvement. The possible delay of Indonesia's B50 plan and the delay of US biodiesel subsidies have weakened the demand expectation for palm oil [40]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: High tariffs on imported rapeseed in China and uncertain import volume of Canadian rapeseed have affected the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials. Low domestic rapeseed arrivals, reduced oil mill operating rates, and tightened supply of imported rapeseed oil have led to continuous inventory reduction, resulting in a relatively strong price pattern for rapeseed oil [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The market demand for oilseeds is weak, and the prices are stable. The trading of soybeans and peanuts is light, with prices under pressure and mainly showing a volatile trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2601 contract was 4108.00 yuan/ton, a change of -42.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of -1.01% [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 8, a change of +42 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The prices of soybeans in Northeast China were stable, but the trading of grain traders was light, and the prices still faced pressure. In the inner - region producing areas, high - quality soybeans commanded high prices, and the purchase prices of grain trading enterprises were firm, but downstream buyers were reluctant to accept high - priced goods, and the purchasing and selling rhythm was slow [1] - Market Information: The loading prices of national standard first - class soybeans with 39% protein in various markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged compared with the previous day [1] Peanut - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 7942.00 yuan/ton, a change of +98.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.25% [2] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The spot basis was PK01 - 942.00, a change of -98.00 from the previous day, an increase of 11.61% [2] - Market Information: The prices of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil remained unchanged. Among related oils, the spot price of national first - class sunflower oil decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price difference with peanut oil increased by 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - class corn oil remained unchanged, and the price difference with peanut oil remained the same. Currently, the inventory of oil mills in the market is not high, but consumption is limited, the market trading is light, and the upward momentum is insufficient, so the prices are mainly volatile [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is that the external market of US soybeans is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention is paid to whether the ending inventory in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the tariff implementation, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and long-term weakness. [4] - The current focus of rapeseed meal futures trading is that the supply and demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter. After the Chinese government's decision to resume group tours to Canada on November 3rd, there is an additional expectation of negotiations. Considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal remains high, limiting the rebound space. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. [3] 2. Hedging Strategy Table - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] - For feed mills with low regular inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] 3. Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3054, down 9 (-0.29%); soybean meal 05 is 2836, up 7 (0.25%); soybean meal 09 is 2952, up 9 (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2500, down 27 (-1.07%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2421, down 7 (-0.29%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2494, down 2 (-0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1127.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1232, up 0.0018 (0.03%). [7][10] 4. Price Spreads and Import Costs/Profits - The price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, along with the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [11] - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are presented, including daily and weekly changes. [11] 5. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors include that the Brazilian export premium supports the far-month contract prices from the cost side, the external market strengthens under the background of US soybean procurement, and the pressure on the near-month contracts is relieved during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts. [9] - Bearish factors include that the current near-month supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills remains high, Brazilian planting is progressing smoothly with a high-yield expectation in South America, and the far-month supply gap is filled under the background of China-US negotiations. [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the oilseed market, Sino-US trade relaxation leads to China's plan to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans, causing a rebound in US soybean prices and cost - driven support for soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the aquaculture industry limit the upside of soybean meal prices. The rapeseed meal market has a generally loose supply - demand situation, with uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports supporting prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. - For the oil market, US soybean price rebounds support soybean oil prices, but high oil mill operating rates, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices. Palm oil has significant supply pressure due to high production in major producing areas and weak demand. Canola oil has a tightening supply due to uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and falling domestic rapeseed arrivals, with its decline being relatively small [39][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal - **Price Influencing Factors**: US soybean price rebounds due to Sino - US trade relaxation, supporting soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the loss - making aquaculture industry limit price increases [7]. - **Profit and Supply**: Oil mill crushing profits need to be repaired, and mills have a strong willingness to support prices. But high domestic port soybean inventories create supply pressure [7]. 2. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall supply - demand is loose, with limited rapeseed meal crushing volume. The low - level soybean - rapeseed meal price difference suppresses substitution demand [7]. - **Price Support**: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports support prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. 3. Soybean Oil - **Positive Factors**: The rebound of US soybean futures prices supports soybean oil futures prices [39]. - **Negative Factors**: High oil mill operating rates, the psychology of supporting soybean meal and selling off soybean oil, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices [39]. 4. Palm Oil - **Supply**: High production in Indonesia and Malaysia leads to sufficient inventory and significant supply pressure [39]. - **Demand**: Weak demand from India and potential delays in Indonesia's B50 plan, along with falling international oil prices and a strong US dollar, weaken market attractiveness [39]. 5. Canola Oil - **Supply**: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and low domestic rapeseed arrivals lead to a tightening supply and continuous inventory reduction [42]. - **Price Movement**: It follows the decline of other oils in the short term, but its decline is smaller due to supply concerns and inventory reduction, while high domestic inventory and the decline of soybean and palm oils limit its rebound [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the oilseed market, after the China - US talks, China may increase purchases of US soybeans, which will boost short - term US soybean export sentiment. High inventory pressure persists in the short term, but short - term price rebounds may occur due to cost increases. For rapeseed, domestic supply - demand changes are limited, and attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed and potential import policy changes [7]. - In the oil market, soybean oil maintains a slightly oversupplied pattern with high inventory pressure; palm oil's market trend is oscillating due to conflicts between weakening biodiesel concepts and seasonal production cuts; and rapeseed oil is in a slow de - stocking cycle, with attention on Sino - Canadian relations and import tariffs [39][40][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oilseed Market - **Soybean Meal**: After the China - US talks, China may increase US soybean purchases, which will drive short - term US soybean export sentiment. Imports from Brazil and Argentina from October to November exceeded expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of US soybean purchases. After December, South American soybean supply will decline, and US soybean purchases will affect subsequent inventory changes. There is short - term high inventory pressure, but short - term price rebounds may occur due to cost increases [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic supply - demand changes are small. Attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed. With the China - US talks, there are high expectations for the easing of Sino - Canadian relations, and attention should be paid to potential changes in rapeseed import tariffs. Domestic demand has entered a seasonal consumption off - season, especially for aquatic products, and attention should be paid to future import policy changes [7]. Oil Market - **Soybean Oil**: After the China - US talks, the increase in overseas soybean prices may affect domestic costs. The Indonesian B50 plan may fall short of expectations, weakening the biodiesel concept and being unfavorable to the oil market. Recent soybean crushing has slowed down, and soybean oil inventory remains high in the short term, maintaining a slightly oversupplied pattern [39]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations this month, with a month - on - month increase, and the report is slightly bearish. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel plan may not be realized, weakening the biodiesel concept. Domestic inventory is still in a high - accumulation stage. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle caused by seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year. The market trend is oscillating due to conflicts between weakening biodiesel concepts and seasonal production cuts [40]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic market is in a slow de - stocking cycle. Sino - Canadian relations are variable, and attention should be paid to potential impacts and changes in import tariffs. Attention should be paid to the possible easing of rapeseed oil imports due to tariff issues, which may lead to lower market expectations [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans and related products: The USDA report this month is neutral to bearish overall, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production. China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure persists. After December, China may turn to buying US soybeans, depending on the China - US negotiation progress. The short - term domestic spot market is in a low - level oscillation, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season with large inventory pressure [5]. - For rapeseed and related products: The domestic supply - demand situation has little change, and attention should be paid to the new rapeseed harvest in Canada. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. The domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquatic product demand. If there is a negotiation with the US, it may ease the China - Canada relationship and relax rapeseed imports [5]. - For oils: - **Soybean oil**: In the short term, the soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month due to the slowdown of soybean crushing but remains at a high level. The Indonesian B50 plan may fall short of expectations, weakening the biodiesel concept and being unfavorable to oils. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil. The market generally shows a slightly oversupplied pattern with high inventory pressure [36]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report this month shows that the inventory has accumulated more than expected, and the report is neutral to bearish. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel plan may not be realized, weakening the biodiesel theme. The domestic inventory is still in a relatively high accumulation stage. The market trend is oscillatory due to the conflict between the weakening of biodiesel and the seasonal production decline of palm oil [37]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The domestic market is in a slow de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to the changes in imports from Russia and the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. The short - term trend is weak, but there is support in the medium term due to reduced imports [38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean and Related Products - **Market fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted US soybean production, global production, and US soybean inventory. China's imports from Brazil and Argentina in October - November exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure continues. After December, the supply from South America may decrease, and China may turn to US soybeans depending on negotiations [5]. - **Price and spread**: There are various price and spread data such as the closing prices of domestic and foreign soybean futures, soybean meal futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), and the price ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) [4][27][60]. - **Inventory and consumption**: Data on soybean crushing volume, soybean inventory in crushing plants, soybean meal inventory, and consumption in China are presented, showing the current supply - demand situation [16][18]. Rapeseed and Related Products - **Market fundamentals**: The domestic supply - demand situation is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the new rapeseed harvest in Canada. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed and possible trade negotiations may affect imports [5]. - **Price and spread**: There are data on rapeseed meal futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), rapeseed meal spot basis, and the price ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) [26][29][63]. - **Inventory and consumption**: Data on rapeseed expected arrival volume, rapeseed inventory in crushing plants, rapeseed meal inventory, and consumption are provided [21][24]. Oils - **Soybean oil**: The short - term inventory change is affected by soybean crushing, and factors such as the Indonesian B50 plan and Argentina's exports impact the market. There are data on soybean oil production, consumption, inventory, and price spreads [36][40][67]. - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report shows inventory changes, and the Indonesian B50 plan and seasonal production decline affect the market trend. Data on palm oil production, consumption, inventory, and price spreads in Malaysia and Indonesia are presented [37][50][64]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The domestic market is in a de - stocking cycle, and anti - dumping measures and trade negotiations affect supply. There are data on rapeseed oil supply, consumption, inventory, and price spreads [38][42][72].