Report on the Oilseed Industry Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybean meal remains ample due to sufficient imports, high oil - mill operation rates, and stable production. In the demand side, the high inventory of downstream feed enterprises and losses in pig farming have weakened purchasing power. Seasonal factors also play a role as demand enters a slow season. Overseas, the expected high - yield of South American soybeans has put downward pressure on US soybean prices, leading to lower import costs in China. Overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is tight as domestic rapeseed stocks have hit historical lows, and press volumes have stagnated. The delay in Australian rapeseed arrivals has exacerbated the situation. On the demand side, the winter season has reduced aquaculture demand, and the expanded price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal has diminished the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal. However, the potential improvement in China - Canada relations may increase future imports [7] Supply - Demand Analysis Soybean Meal - **Supply**: Abundant imports, high oil - mill operation rates, and stable production result in high inventory levels [2] - **Demand**: High inventory of feed enterprises, losses in pig - farming, and seasonal factors lead to weak demand [2] - **Overseas**: Expected high - yield in South America, USDA's inventory increase and export decrease forecasts for US soybeans affect the market [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: Low domestic rapeseed stocks, stagnant press volumes, and delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals cause supply shortages. Future imports may increase due to potential policy changes [7] - **Demand**: Reduced aquaculture demand in winter and limited substitution demand due to price differences [7] Report on the Edible Oil Industry Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: High weekly production from imported soybean crushing, declining inventory, and the start of Spring Festival stocking support the spot market. Recovering catering consumption and increased small - package oil purchases are positive factors, but the weaker - than - expected terminal stocking has limited the upside. Overseas bio - diesel news has provided external support [37] - **Palm Oil**: High inventory in Malaysia and domestic ports creates supply pressure. Although domestic demand for edible and industrial use has increased, high inventory restricts price movements. Policy uncertainties from Indonesia and the US add to the complexity [37] - **Rapeseed Oil**: A significant drop in domestic rapeseed crushing and production, but expected Australian arrivals will ease supply concerns. Pre - Spring Festival stocking has supported short - term demand, but high prices have dampened purchasing enthusiasm [37] Supply - Demand Analysis Soybean Oil - **Supply**: High weekly production from imported soybeans and decreasing inventory [37] - **Demand**: Recovering catering consumption and increased small - package oil purchases, but weak terminal stocking [37] - **External**: Overseas bio - diesel news provides support [37] Palm Oil - **Supply**: High inventory in Malaysia and domestic ports [37] - **Demand**: Increased edible and industrial demand, but high inventory restricts prices [37] - **Policy**: Uncertainties from Indonesia's and the US's bio - diesel policies [37] Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: Decreased domestic production, but expected Australian imports will ease supply [37] - **Demand**: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices limit purchases [37] - **Policy**: Potential increase in imports due to improved China - Canada relations and uncertain overseas bio - diesel policies [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of soymeal remains loose, with sufficient imported soybeans, stable production, and high inventory, while demand is in a seasonal slump and external factors exert long - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Rapeseed meal supply is currently tight but may face increased pressure in the long - term due to potential policy changes, and demand is weak in the winter [3] - For cooking oils, different oils have different supply - demand situations and are affected by various factors such as production, inventory, consumption, and policies [37][38][39] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soymeal - **Supply**: Imported soybean arrivals are sufficient (6 million tons expected in January), oil mill operating rates are around 54%, production is stable, and inventory, though decreasing for two consecutive weeks, remains at a historically high level (1.05 million tons) [2] - **Demand**: Downstream feed enterprises have high inventory (physical inventory up 55% year - on - year), and pig farming losses suppress procurement enthusiasm. Demand is in a seasonal slump, and purchases are mainly made on a need - to - use basis [2] - **External Factors**: The expected high yield of South American soybeans (Brazil's production is expected to be 177 million tons) suppresses US soybean prices, reducing domestic import costs and exerting long - term downward pressure on soymeal [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a historical low (coastal oil mill inventory is close to zero), and crushing volume has stagnated for 6 consecutive weeks. It currently relies on port granular rapeseed meal inventory (474,200 tons), but delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals have led to a tight supply [3] - **Demand**: Aquaculture is in a winter slump, with daily提货量 only in the hundreds of tons, and the demand for poultry feed addition is limited. The widening price difference between soymeal and rapeseed meal weakens the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal [3] - **Policy Variables**: The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has raised expectations of a loosening of rapeseed import policies. If anti - dumping tax adjustments are implemented, long - term supply pressure will increase significantly, suppressing price flexibility [3] Cooking Oils Soybean Oil - **Supply**: The weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, and soybean oil output is stable. However, inventory has been decreasing, and pre - Spring Festival stocking supports the spot market [37] - **Demand**: Catering consumption is gradually recovering, and purchases of small - packaged oils are increasing, but terminal stocking efforts are lower than expected, and the spot market remains strong [37] - **External Linkage**: Crude oil may have a certain impact [37] Palm Oil - **Supply**: Malaysia's inventory reached 2.835 million tons in December, a five - year high, and domestic port inventory has also increased to 765,000 tons, indicating significant supply pressure [38] - **Demand**: The recovery of domestic catering consumption has driven edible demand, and the biodiesel blending policy supports industrial demand, but high inventory suppresses price flexibility [38] - **Policy Game**: Indonesia plans to raise the export tax from 10% to 15%, and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain [38] Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: Domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased by 48% year - on - year (2.97 million tons accumulated in 2025), and rapeseed oil production has decreased significantly. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed imports (estimated at 300,000 - 400,000 tons) will ease the raw material shortage, and long - term supply is expected to be loose [39] - **Demand**: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm, the basis has declined, and the spot market is weakening [39] - **Policy Impact**: Expectations of improved China - Canada trade relations are rising. If Canadian rapeseed imports resume, it will further suppress the premium of rapeseed oil, and prices will face long - term downward pressure [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's December report met market expectations, and the market continues to focus on the sowing and weather conditions of South American soybeans. The progress of China's procurement of US soybeans remains slow, and the arrival volume from December to January may be lower than expected. Brazil's soybean sowing is going smoothly, and the market expects an increase in area, which may put pressure on the supply from March to May next year. State reserve soybean auctions recently are beneficial for alleviating the shortage of domestic supply around January. On the demand side, breeding losses are suppressing purchasing enthusiasm, and demand is weak, being in a seasonal off - peak. Low prices and excessive forward discounts in futures may over - price future negative factors. For rapeseed, domestic rapeseed inventories are close to zero due to reduced imports, and both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil imports are restricted by import tariffs. The arrival of Australian imports has increased recently, and the rapeseed import volume in December and January is expected to be at the historical average level. As the peak season for aquatic product demand ends, demand - side support will further weaken. For oils, the pressure on the supply side of soybean oil has slightly eased, and there is some support on the demand side due to the year - end peak season. The overseas biodiesel theme has slowed down, putting short - term pressure on oils. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has exceeded expectations, and China's imports have slowed down, but the approaching Spring Festival may drive demand. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan may be postponed, weakening the demand expectation for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. The high tariff on imported rapeseed in China affects the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials, and rapeseed oil is in a passive weak shock [6][38][39][40][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA December report met expectations, and the market focuses on South American soybean sowing and weather. China's procurement of US soybeans is slow, and the December - January arrival volume may be lower than expected. Brazil's soybean sowing is smooth, which may pressure the March - May supply next year. State reserve auctions can alleviate the supply shortage around January. Demand is weak due to breeding losses and is in a seasonal off - peak. Low prices and forward discounts may over - price future negatives [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic rapeseed inventories are close to zero due to reduced imports, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by tariffs. Australian imports are increasing, and the December - January import volume is expected to be at the historical average. As the aquatic product demand peak ends, demand support will weaken. Domestic rapeseed crushers are mostly shut down, and the spot price is scarce, being more affected by soybean meal in the short term [6] 3.2 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The recent decline in oil mill crushing volume has slightly eased the supply - side pressure. There is some support on the demand side due to the year - end peak season. The slowdown of the overseas biodiesel theme puts short - term pressure on soybean oil. With low absolute prices and weak fundamentals, the price maintains a weak shock [38][39] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's December supply - demand data exceeded expectations, with inventory accumulation higher than expected. China's imports have slowed down, and demand is weak, but the approaching Spring Festival may drive demand. The postponement of Indonesia's B50 plan weakens the demand expectation for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Attention should be paid to the possible inventory reduction cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries from December to February [40] - **Rapeseed Oil**: High tariffs on imported rapeseed in China make the import volume of Canadian rapeseed uncertain, affecting the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials. Reduced imports have led to continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil. In the context of overall weak oils, rapeseed oil is in a passive weak shock, and short - term shocks are caused by demand substitution [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory pressure in the oilseed industry remains high, but the extremely low absolute prices limit significant downside potential, and the supply - demand relationship shows no obvious improvement. Attention should be paid to the new USDA monthly supply - demand report, the import of US soybeans, the production in Brazil, and the impact of import tariffs on the rapeseed industry [5]. - In the oil market, the supply pressure persists, but the approaching year - end demand peak provides some support. The prices are expected to remain range - bound at low levels, and the absolute downside space may narrow as fundamentals are gradually digested [37][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Supply Side** - USDA will release a new monthly supply - demand report next week. Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the market anticipates an increase in area, which may put pressure on the supply from March to May next year. Chinese port soybean inventories are sufficient, at a three - year high, leading to significant supply pressure. Import reduction has caused domestic rapeseed inventories to approach zero, and rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are restricted by import tariffs [5]. - Canadian rapeseed imports are still not resumed, while Australian imports have increased recently. The expected rapeseed imports in December and January are at the historical average level [5]. - **Demand Side** - In the livestock and poultry breeding industry, losses have curbed purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in weak demand. The end of the peak season for aquatic product demand will further weaken the demand for rapeseed meal [5]. - China's procurement of US soybeans is still slow, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume from December to January [5]. 2. Oil Market - **Soybean Oil** - Supply remains relatively high as soybean crushing continues at a high level, and the supply - side pressure persists [37]. - The slowdown in the overseas biodiesel theme has put short - term pressure on oils. The approaching year - end demand peak provides some support for demand. With low prices and a weak fundamental outlook, prices are likely to remain range - bound at low levels, and the absolute downside space may narrow [38]. - **Palm Oil** - In Malaysia, monthly production and inventory have increased month - on - month, and the main producing regions have sufficient inventory, resulting in obvious supply pressure [38]. - Short - term Chinese imports have slowed down, leading to weak demand. However, the approaching Spring Festival may boost demand. The possible delay of Indonesia's B50 plan has weakened the demand expectation for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Attention should be paid to the potential inventory reduction cycle from December to February due to seasonal production cuts in the main producing regions [38]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - China's high tariffs on imported rapeseed products and the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed imports have affected the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials [39]. - Low domestic rapeseed arrivals, reduced refinery operating rates, and tightened supply of imported rapeseed oil have led to a continuous decline in rapeseed oil inventory. Rapeseed oil is experiencing passive weak oscillations in the context of a weak overall oil market [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [7][10] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand structure of oilseeds is stable, maintaining a volatile pattern. For soybeans, supply pressure is the core constraint on prices, with high - yield expectations domestically and globally, and rigid demand. For peanuts, the short - term is a north - strong, south - weak and range - bound pattern, and the medium - to - long - term is likely to first stabilize and then decline [4][6][9] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Market Review - From January to October 2025, the soybean futures market maintained a low - level volatile pattern, and the spot market showed a high - quality, high - price situation. Futures prices fluctuated in different periods due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, policy signals, and weather [12][15][19] 2. Soybean Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the national soybean sown and harvested areas are expected to be 10,424 thousand hectares, with a 0.96% increase compared to 2024/25. The predicted yield per unit area in November is 2,005 kg/ha. The total output is expected to be 2.09 million tons. The reasons for the high - yield are good weather in the producing areas and strong policy support. The predicted soybean import volume in 2025 is 108 million tons, with a 2.9% year - on - year increase, and the import dependence drops to 79.5%. The import of non - genetically modified soybeans from January to September 2025 decreased significantly [20][21][27] - **Demand**: The change in domestic soybean crushing demand is related to the supply of imported soybeans. The edible demand has obvious seasonal characteristics, and the overall demand increment is small [32] 3. Soybean Future Outlook - Supply pressure is the core factor affecting prices. Domestic and global soybean supplies are expected to be abundant, while demand growth is rigid. The price will mainly fluctuate, and the deep - decline space is limited by the purchase policy of CGS. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US soybean purchases and the impact of South American weather on global supply expectations [34][37] 4. Peanut Market Review - From January to October 2025, peanut prices showed a pattern of bottom - building and then differentiated upward. The price was suppressed in the early stage due to slow inventory digestion and weak consumption. After June, the price was affected by policies and seasonal factors. In September - October, the market showed a pattern of strong in the northeast and weak in Henan [38] 5. Peanut Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The national peanut planting area in 2025 is expected to increase by 3%. The average yield per unit area is estimated to be 458.8 jin/mu, and the total output is about 1.7 million tons. The output expectations from different sources vary. The planting areas in different regions have different trends. The import volume from January to September 2025 decreased significantly, and the import inventory has returned to normal. The weather in Henan has a great impact on peanut production [40][42][45] - **Demand**: Peanut demand is mainly divided into food consumption and oil - pressing consumption. The oil - pressing demand shows a trend of low in the front and high in the back, which is mainly affected by the profit of oil - pressing [48][51] 6. Peanut Future Outlook - **Short - term**: From November 2025 to before the Spring Festival, the peanut market will maintain a north - strong, south - weak and range - bound pattern. The high oil - pressing profit will support the price, but the pressure of new grain listing in Henan and the difficulty of high - price transactions in the sales area will limit the increase [52] - **Medium - to - long - term**: In 2026, the peanut market is likely to first stabilize and then decline. The supply will be loose, while the demand increment is less than the output increment. The price is expected to be under pressure after the Spring Festival and have a short - term rebound in the off - season [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall inventory pressure in the oilseed industry remains high, but the absolute price is too low to have much downward space, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. Attention should be paid to the import volume of US soybeans from December to January, as well as the import changes of rapeseed under the influence of tariffs. In the oil market, different oils face different supply - demand situations, with some facing supply pressure and some having relatively strong price patterns due to supply tightening [5][40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - USDA's current report lowered US soybean production, inventory, and exports, but the figures were lower than market expectations. Brazil's soybean sowing is going smoothly, and an increase in area and production is expected, which may put pressure on supply from March to May next year [5]. - Domestic port soybean inventory is sufficient, at a three - year high, and supply pressure is large. The loss in the aquaculture industry has suppressed purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in weak demand [5]. - The progress of domestic purchases of US soybeans is still slow, and attention should be paid to the purchase volume from December to January [5]. - Import reduction has led to domestic rapeseed inventory approaching zero, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by import tariffs. The import of Canadian rapeseed has not been resumed, and the arrival of Australian imports has increased recently. The expected rapeseed import volume in December and January remains at the historical average [5]. - With the end of the peak season for aquatic product demand, demand support will further weaken [5]. 3.2 Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: Supply has improved with the increase in crushing, but overall inventory pressure is large. Overseas biodiesel topics have slowed down, and the decline in US soybean oil prices has put pressure on import costs. The weakening of the biodiesel topic in the crude oil market has also had a short - term impact. However, the approaching year - end demand peak season provides some support for demand [39][40]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's monthly production and inventory have increased month - on - month, with sufficient inventory in the main production areas and obvious supply pressure. Short - term Chinese imports have slowed down, and demand is weak. However, the approaching Spring Festival demand peak season may drive demand improvement. The possible delay of Indonesia's B50 plan and the delay of US biodiesel subsidies have weakened the demand expectation for palm oil [40]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: High tariffs on imported rapeseed in China and uncertain import volume of Canadian rapeseed have affected the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials. Low domestic rapeseed arrivals, reduced oil mill operating rates, and tightened supply of imported rapeseed oil have led to continuous inventory reduction, resulting in a relatively strong price pattern for rapeseed oil [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The market demand for oilseeds is weak, and the prices are stable. The trading of soybeans and peanuts is light, with prices under pressure and mainly showing a volatile trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2601 contract was 4108.00 yuan/ton, a change of -42.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of -1.01% [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 8, a change of +42 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The prices of soybeans in Northeast China were stable, but the trading of grain traders was light, and the prices still faced pressure. In the inner - region producing areas, high - quality soybeans commanded high prices, and the purchase prices of grain trading enterprises were firm, but downstream buyers were reluctant to accept high - priced goods, and the purchasing and selling rhythm was slow [1] - Market Information: The loading prices of national standard first - class soybeans with 39% protein in various markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged compared with the previous day [1] Peanut - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 7942.00 yuan/ton, a change of +98.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.25% [2] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The spot basis was PK01 - 942.00, a change of -98.00 from the previous day, an increase of 11.61% [2] - Market Information: The prices of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil remained unchanged. Among related oils, the spot price of national first - class sunflower oil decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price difference with peanut oil increased by 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - class corn oil remained unchanged, and the price difference with peanut oil remained the same. Currently, the inventory of oil mills in the market is not high, but consumption is limited, the market trading is light, and the upward momentum is insufficient, so the prices are mainly volatile [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is that the external market of US soybeans is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention is paid to whether the ending inventory in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the tariff implementation, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and long-term weakness. [4] - The current focus of rapeseed meal futures trading is that the supply and demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter. After the Chinese government's decision to resume group tours to Canada on November 3rd, there is an additional expectation of negotiations. Considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal remains high, limiting the rebound space. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. [3] 2. Hedging Strategy Table - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] - For feed mills with low regular inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] 3. Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3054, down 9 (-0.29%); soybean meal 05 is 2836, up 7 (0.25%); soybean meal 09 is 2952, up 9 (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2500, down 27 (-1.07%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2421, down 7 (-0.29%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2494, down 2 (-0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1127.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1232, up 0.0018 (0.03%). [7][10] 4. Price Spreads and Import Costs/Profits - The price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, along with the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [11] - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are presented, including daily and weekly changes. [11] 5. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors include that the Brazilian export premium supports the far-month contract prices from the cost side, the external market strengthens under the background of US soybean procurement, and the pressure on the near-month contracts is relieved during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts. [9] - Bearish factors include that the current near-month supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills remains high, Brazilian planting is progressing smoothly with a high-yield expectation in South America, and the far-month supply gap is filled under the background of China-US negotiations. [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the oilseed market, Sino-US trade relaxation leads to China's plan to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans, causing a rebound in US soybean prices and cost - driven support for soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the aquaculture industry limit the upside of soybean meal prices. The rapeseed meal market has a generally loose supply - demand situation, with uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports supporting prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. - For the oil market, US soybean price rebounds support soybean oil prices, but high oil mill operating rates, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices. Palm oil has significant supply pressure due to high production in major producing areas and weak demand. Canola oil has a tightening supply due to uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and falling domestic rapeseed arrivals, with its decline being relatively small [39][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal - **Price Influencing Factors**: US soybean price rebounds due to Sino - US trade relaxation, supporting soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the loss - making aquaculture industry limit price increases [7]. - **Profit and Supply**: Oil mill crushing profits need to be repaired, and mills have a strong willingness to support prices. But high domestic port soybean inventories create supply pressure [7]. 2. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall supply - demand is loose, with limited rapeseed meal crushing volume. The low - level soybean - rapeseed meal price difference suppresses substitution demand [7]. - **Price Support**: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports support prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. 3. Soybean Oil - **Positive Factors**: The rebound of US soybean futures prices supports soybean oil futures prices [39]. - **Negative Factors**: High oil mill operating rates, the psychology of supporting soybean meal and selling off soybean oil, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices [39]. 4. Palm Oil - **Supply**: High production in Indonesia and Malaysia leads to sufficient inventory and significant supply pressure [39]. - **Demand**: Weak demand from India and potential delays in Indonesia's B50 plan, along with falling international oil prices and a strong US dollar, weaken market attractiveness [39]. 5. Canola Oil - **Supply**: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and low domestic rapeseed arrivals lead to a tightening supply and continuous inventory reduction [42]. - **Price Movement**: It follows the decline of other oils in the short term, but its decline is smaller due to supply concerns and inventory reduction, while high domestic inventory and the decline of soybean and palm oils limit its rebound [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the oilseed market, after the China - US talks, China may increase purchases of US soybeans, which will boost short - term US soybean export sentiment. High inventory pressure persists in the short term, but short - term price rebounds may occur due to cost increases. For rapeseed, domestic supply - demand changes are limited, and attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed and potential import policy changes [7]. - In the oil market, soybean oil maintains a slightly oversupplied pattern with high inventory pressure; palm oil's market trend is oscillating due to conflicts between weakening biodiesel concepts and seasonal production cuts; and rapeseed oil is in a slow de - stocking cycle, with attention on Sino - Canadian relations and import tariffs [39][40][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oilseed Market - **Soybean Meal**: After the China - US talks, China may increase US soybean purchases, which will drive short - term US soybean export sentiment. Imports from Brazil and Argentina from October to November exceeded expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of US soybean purchases. After December, South American soybean supply will decline, and US soybean purchases will affect subsequent inventory changes. There is short - term high inventory pressure, but short - term price rebounds may occur due to cost increases [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic supply - demand changes are small. Attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed. With the China - US talks, there are high expectations for the easing of Sino - Canadian relations, and attention should be paid to potential changes in rapeseed import tariffs. Domestic demand has entered a seasonal consumption off - season, especially for aquatic products, and attention should be paid to future import policy changes [7]. Oil Market - **Soybean Oil**: After the China - US talks, the increase in overseas soybean prices may affect domestic costs. The Indonesian B50 plan may fall short of expectations, weakening the biodiesel concept and being unfavorable to the oil market. Recent soybean crushing has slowed down, and soybean oil inventory remains high in the short term, maintaining a slightly oversupplied pattern [39]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations this month, with a month - on - month increase, and the report is slightly bearish. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel plan may not be realized, weakening the biodiesel concept. Domestic inventory is still in a high - accumulation stage. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle caused by seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year. The market trend is oscillating due to conflicts between weakening biodiesel concepts and seasonal production cuts [40]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic market is in a slow de - stocking cycle. Sino - Canadian relations are variable, and attention should be paid to potential impacts and changes in import tariffs. Attention should be paid to the possible easing of rapeseed oil imports due to tariff issues, which may lead to lower market expectations [41].