General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 8492, opening price 8450, high price 8490, low price 8412, closing price 8466, down 26 (-0.31%), volume 445676, open interest change -3164 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 8498, opening price 8452, high price 8488, low price 8420, closing price 8468, down 30 (-0.35%), volume 46546, open interest change 3486 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 7968, opening price 7936, high price 7940, low price 7862, closing price 7894, down 74 (-0.93%), volume 308543, open interest change -22325 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 7958, opening price 7930, high price 7930, low price 7872, closing price 7902, down 56 (-0.70%), volume 81936, open interest change 19354 [7] - OI2509: Previous settlement price 9614, opening price 9590, high price 9608, low price 9512, closing price 9548, down 66 (-0.69%), volume 265206, open interest change -16717 [7] - OI2601: Previous settlement price 9547, opening price 9522, high price 9549, low price 9451, closing price 9492, down 55 (-0.58%), volume 36194, open interest change 3884 [7] - Quotes from Dongguan rapeseed oil traders: Dongguan triple - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 60, single - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 240. Basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: single - refined soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509 + 220, October - January Y2601 + 300. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 150 yuan/ton, real orders subject to negotiation [7] Oil and Fat Review - Oil and fat prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release monthly data on Thursday. A survey indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June is expected to remain flat or decline, ending the previous four - month growth trend due to unexpectedly reduced production and strong exports. China's domestic oil and fat supply - demand is stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, during the off - season of domestic oil and fat consumption, oil and fat inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil and fat price spread shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy. If crude oil and US soybean oil weaken, the short - term trend of domestic oil and fat will be under pressure. Attention should still be paid to the progress of US tariff policies [8] 2. Industry News - Reuters survey: Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June may drop to 1.99 million tons, production is 1.7 million tons (down 4.04% month - on - month), and exports are 1.45 million tons. Bloomberg's estimated data shows that June production is 1.74 million tons, exports are 1.44 million tons, and inventory is 2 million tons [9] - Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA): Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 is estimated to be 1.69 million tons (down 4.69% month - on - month). Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased 0.68% month - on - month, production in Sabah decreased 11.95% month - on - month, production in Sarawak decreased 8.98% month - on - month, and production in East Malaysia decreased 11.24% month - on - month [9] - Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA): Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 decreased 0.65% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased 0.23%, and oil extraction rate decreased 0.08% [9] - Shipping survey agency SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1.195265 million tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to 1.069643 million tons in May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to 132,000 tons in the same period last month. ITS exports were 1.382 million tons (up 4.7% month - on - month), and AmSpec data was 1.286 million tons (up 4.5% month - on - month) [9][10] 3. Data Overview - StoneX raised Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/25 season by over 500,000 tons to a record 168.75 million tons due to higher production in Bahia state [15] - As of July 4, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6.4 million tons, compared with 7.6 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month were 1.5 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in July 2025 is 11.3 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons (7.32% month - on - month) compared with the forecasted arrival volume of 10.5 million tons last month, and an increase of 1.9 million tons (20.86% year - on - year) compared with the arrival schedule of 9.3 million tons in the same period last year [15]