（来源：南京玛合雅） 来源：市场资讯 一、【市场关注】 1、基于美国农业部压榨周报的计算结果显示，截至2025年11月21日当周，美国大豆压榨利润为每蒲 2.73美元，比一周前减少12.2%。作为参考，2024年的压榨利润平均为2.44美元/蒲，低于2023年的3.29 美元/蒲。 2、AmSpec：马来西亚11月1-25日棕榈油出口量为987978吨，较上月同期出口的1182216吨减少16.4%。 AmSpec：马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油出口量为828680吨，较上月同期出口的965066吨减少14.1%。 3、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至11月22日，巴西大豆播种率为78%，上周为 69%，去年同期为83.3%，五年均值为75.8%。 4、据Mysteel调研显示，截至2025年11月21日，全国重点地区豆油、棕榈油、菜油三大油脂商业库存总 量为222.40万吨，较上周增加0.10万吨，涨幅0.04%；同比去年同期上涨25.30万吨，涨幅12.84%。 全国重点地区豆油商业库存117.99万吨，环比上周增加3.14万吨，增幅2.73%。同比增加11.40万吨，涨 幅10.70% ...

目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 棕榈油高频数据较差施压油脂 油脂周报 2025/11/22 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 市场综述：本周三大油脂走势较弱，棕榈油仍然被外资空配，其他油脂多单持仓也下降。棕榈油产地高频数据一般，SPPOMA数据显示，11月 1日至15日，马来西亚棕榈油单产月环比增加1.82%，出油率增加0.43%，产量增长4.09%，产量在去库季节仍在增长，高频出口则显示前20日 下降14.1%-20.5%，意味着下游需求一般。菜油方面因沿海油厂多数缺籽停机，菜油库存持续去化，走势相对较强，不过俄罗斯菜油及澳洲 菜籽填补一定空缺，上方空间也承压。豆油则跟随震荡为主。 国际油脂：按往年正常水平产量及国际需求来看，来年一季度棕榈油将会进入快速去库节奏。不过今年马来西亚、印尼产量均同比偏大，一 季度是油脂需求淡季，若此时东南亚棕榈油产量仍维持高位，则预期中的去库可能会反转，因此当前 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 三大油脂周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.14 | 2025.11.21 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2025.11.14 | 2025.11.21 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2601 | 8644 | 8550 | -94 | -1.09 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8690 | 8676 | -14 | -0.16 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 9923 | 9816 | -107 | -1.08 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10287 | 10140 | -147 | -1.43 | | 豆油 | Y2601 | 8256 | 8190 | -66 | -0.80 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8462 | 84 ...

我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 油油油MPOB 油油油油油 油油油油 2 0 2 5 / 1 1 / 1 1 作者：聂波 从业资格证号：F03117695 交易咨询证号：Z0019358 研究联系方:niebo@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 周末美国环境保护署允许两份小型炼油厂100%豁免申请，但是有12份只获得50%的豁免申请，同时也拒绝了两份豁免申请， 美豆油主力跌破50美分/磅，但是并未持续较长时间，毕竟此前有消息称关于小型炼油厂豁免申请的批复被延迟到明年初， 虽然也没有豁免义务再分配的消息，但是市场更想等待2026年以以后的合规义务分配量，从EIA公布的8月数据，豆油在美 国生柴的投料比例回升至39%，但是废弃油脂以及动物脂肪的投料比例下跌明显，美豆油需求仍然旺盛，只是略低于去年同 期。 油脂 定性 解析 核心观 中性 10月马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增加11.02%至204万吨，高于市场预估的194-195万吨，分地区来看，马来半岛环比增加6.55%， 沙捞越州和沙巴州分别增15%和19%，进入10月产区旱季明显，多数地区降雨偏低，且10月假期少，当 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term may show a state of "bad news exhausted" after the release of next week's MPOB report. The downward drive of the supply side in the production - reduction season requires additional high - yield to stimulate. The upward opening of the palm oil price space can only expect a smooth production reduction in the fourth quarter, waiting for new story imagination space injected by floods in the producing areas and lower - than - expected production in the first quarter. - With the callback pressure of palm oil, soybean oil is the main choice for multi - allocation, but it has no independent upward drive. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be finally reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports. [2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - **Palm Oil**: The market worried that Malaysia's production in the fourth quarter would still be large, and there was a lack of effective demand stories for B50 and US soybean oil. However, India's buying interest improved, and there were signs of stabilization in the second half of the week in the producing areas. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.59% last week, may stabilize in the short - term, and there is still a possibility of a second dip by the end of the year. Attention should be paid to the support at the 8400 - 8600 level. [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, soybean oil is difficult to have an independent driving force and mainly fluctuates weakly following the oil and fat sector. However, the strong export demand of soybean oil and the inevitable inventory - reduction process make soybean oil still maintain a relatively strong operation among oil and fat varieties. The soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.39% last week. [1] This Week's Viewpoints and Logic - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's production and rainfall conditions this year are generally good, which may make the fourth - quarter production above the level of the same period last year. After the inventory in October accumulated to nearly 2.5 million tons, the year - end inventory will slowly decline to around 2.3 million tons, a historically high level, and continue to decline to about 2 million tons by next March. The market has not fully priced in the high - level production in November and December (1.75 million and 1.65 million tons respectively). In Indonesia, affected by the possible tax cut in December, the export pressure in November is large, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has been declining, giving room for the consumer areas to replenish stocks. Overall, it is very likely that the inventory in Indonesia and Malaysia will recover to more than 5.5 million tons by the end of the year, even approaching 6 million tons. The Indian CPO's recent import profit has risen rapidly, which may play a certain price - bottoming role, but there is no additional positive news. The EPA announced new small - refinery exemptions, which is a negative surprise for the biodiesel demand in 2026. Without a substantial improvement in US soybean oil, international oil and fat prices are suppressed and lose the biggest driving force for reversal. [2] - **Soybean Oil**: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined rapidly recently, and there is a large inventory - accumulation pressure by the end of the year. Before the specific blending policy for next year is implemented, it is too early for US soybean oil to rebound. The EPA's new small - refinery exemptions are a negative surprise for the biodiesel demand in 2026. The final release of RVO is likely to be postponed to January next year or later. Before the policy is implemented, the inevitable inventory - accumulation trend of US soybean oil will make it unable to officially reflect the tight - fundamental expectation. The price of US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate following crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and US soybean prices and is still in a downward channel. In November, sufficient rainfall in the central - western part of Brazil and Paraná State is conducive to sowing acceleration. The new - season soybean prospects in the three South American countries are still positive, and a high - yield pattern is taking shape. The large - supply pattern of global soybeans in 2025/2026 restricts the upward driving force of the international soybean system. The boost effect of China's promised purchase of US soybeans on US soybean exports is limited. In the domestic market, there is almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January. The export demand may keep domestic soybean oil in a monthly inventory - reduction process until March next year. Therefore, among oil and fat varieties, especially when palm oil still has callback pressure, soybean oil is the main choice for multi - allocation, but it has no independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be finally reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports. [4] Basic Market Data of the Futures Market | Futures Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 8,732 yuan/ton | 8,756 yuan/ton | 8,562 yuan/ton | 8,660 yuan/ton | - 1.59% | | Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 8,108 yuan/ton | 8,230 yuan/ton | 8,062 yuan/ton | 8,184 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous Contract | 9,396 yuan/ton | 9,610 yuan/ton | 9,299 yuan/ton | 9,533 yuan/ton | 0.78% | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 4,204 ringgit/ton | 4,219 ringgit/ton | 4,080 ringgit/ton | 4,110 ringgit/ton | - 2.26% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 48.78 cents/pound | 50.33 cents/pound | 48.27 cents/pound | 49.63 cents/pound | 2.08% | | Futures Variety | Trading Volume | Trading Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,782,635 lots | 162,078 | 416,049 lots | 23,054 | | Soybean Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,620,557 lots | - 168,991 | 471,543 lots | - 21,478 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Continuous Contract | 2,641,662 lots | - 18,678 | 210,490 lots | - 10,248 | | Spread Variety | This Week's Closing Price | Last Week's Closing Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Soybean 01 Spread | 1,349 yuan/ton | 1,294 yuan/ton | 4.25% | | Soybean - Palm 01 Spread | - 476 yuan/ton | - 636 yuan/ton | 25.16% | | Palm Oil 1 - 5 Spread | - 70 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 40.00% | | Soybean Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 224 yuan/ton | 170 yuan/ton | 31.76% | | Rapeseed Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 405 yuan/ton | 281 yuan/ton | 44.13% | | Warehouse Receipt Variety | This Week | Last Week | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil | 650 lots | 0 | 650 | | Huanghai (not clear what it is) | 26,014 lots | 27,644 lots | - 1,630 | | Rapeseed Oil | 5,024 lots | 7,540 lots | - 2,516 | [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil market is that after a significant decline, it has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short - term, each oil variety lacks a clear driving force, and the upward space is limited [6][8][9]. - For palm oil, one can consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy and the October Malaysian palm oil production [6]. - For soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [8]. - For rapeseed oil, continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8188, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8438, 8488, and 8358 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is 300, 250, and 170 respectively [3]. - Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 8732, up 142. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8632, 8732, and 8832 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 100, 0, and 100 respectively [3]. - Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9564, up 157. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9914 and 10064 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi is 350 and 500 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 182, down 6; for palm oil, it is - 66, up 40; for rapeseed oil, it is 391, up 46 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The Y - P 01 contract spread is - 544, up 107; the OI - Y spread is 1376, up 92; the OI - P spread is 832, up 15; the oil - meal ratio is 2.67, up 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 224, with a CNF price of 1045 for the December shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1331, with a FOB price of 1085 for the December shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 121.6 (last year's same - period 110.1, last week 125.0), palm oil inventory is 53.9, and rapeseed oil inventory is 51.4 (last year's same - period 41.8, last week 53.5) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Palm companies have increased the discount on soybean oil, attracting buyers from India and Pakistan. India bought about 140,000 tons of palm oil this week, and Pakistan's purchases remained stable. However, factors such as higher - than - expected production prospects of growers, a decline in Malaysia's exports in early November, and a stronger ringgit may limit price increases [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The price has stabilized and rebounded, and the YP spread has widened, making palm oil more cost - effective. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 59.28 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from last week, a decline of 2.36%. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 300. There are rumors of 3 near - month purchase ships today. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price oscillated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2253400 tons, with an operating rate of 61.99%. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1215800 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from last week, a decline of 2.76%. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price oscillated higher, up more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6000 tons, with an operating rate of 1.6%. As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 514000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 1100. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see for palm oil [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest; soybean oil fluctuates between cost support and inventory pressure; rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - On November 5, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8770, 8610, and 8550 respectively, all down 20 from the previous day [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8310, 8380, and 8480 respectively, all down 40 from the previous day [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9750, 9800, and 10070 respectively, all down 20 from the previous day [1] 3.2 Futures Data - On November 5, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 452, up 56 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1269, down 66 from the previous day [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 650; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 27444, down 200 from the previous day; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 6838, down 702 from the previous day [1] 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil production forecast for 2025 is raised to 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%, strengthening the global supply - loosening expectation [2] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach a two - year high. The inventory at the end of October is expected to be 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the highest since October 2023, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%. The crude palm oil production in the same period is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%, the highest since October 2018 [2] - As of October 29, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06%, rising for three consecutive weeks and at a recent high [2] - Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement [2] - StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield per acre to 53.6 bushels, still higher than the USDA forecast [2] - Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2, lagging behind the same period last year and the five - year average [2] - The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of Russia's new - season rapeseed oil [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. The overall market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6][74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the oil and fat market did not rise after the holiday but showed an oscillating downward trend. Palm oil and rapeseed oil had relatively large declines, while soybean oil was more resistant to decline. In the first and middle of October, affected by factors such as negative MPOB reports and the expectation of eased China - Canada relations, there was a lack of positive drivers. In the second half of October, more negative factors emerged, leading to a rapid decline [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil remains low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. Currently, soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market, with limited upward momentum but more resistance to decline. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range before there is substantial progress in rapeseed imports from Canada and Australia [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. - Arbitrage: P15 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, in October, the oil and fat market showed an oscillating downward trend, with palm oil and rapeseed oil having larger declines and soybean oil being more resistant to decline. Negative factors in the first and middle of October and more negative factors in the second half of the month led to the decline [10]. 3.2.2 High Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory and Higher - than - Expected Indonesian Production - Malaysian palm oil: In September, the ending inventory unexpectedly increased to 2.36 million tons, a 7% month - on - month increase. Production decreased slightly by 1% to 1.84 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Exports increased to 1.43 million tons as expected, still lower than the five - year average, and apparent consumption decreased to 330,000 tons, a 33% decline. It is estimated that in October, production may slightly increase to 1.87 million tons, and inventory may increase to around 2.45 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating weakly, and the export reference price for November has been lowered. After October, it will enter the traditional production - reduction season [13][14]. - Indonesian palm oil: In August, production decreased slightly by 1% to 5.55 million tons, a record high in the same period. Exports decreased but were still at a high level in the same period, and inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, still at a low level in the same period. The estimated production for this year has been raised to 56 - 57 million tons. The fruit bunch price has declined, the CPO tender price has stabilized and declined, and exports in September decreased significantly. The domestic biodiesel consumption from January to September increased by nearly 10% year - on - year, and the B50 policy is planned to be implemented in the middle of next year, but there are some implementation difficulties [28][29]. 3.2.3 End of Holiday Stocking and Slower Indian Procurement - Import: As of September, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 13.98 million tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by about 14%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 4.39 million tons, a 42% increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 20% on a high base but were still at a relatively high level in the same period. - Inventory: In September, India's port inventory continued to increase to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining stable, sunflower oil inventory decreasing, and soybean oil inventory increasing significantly. All three major oils' inventories were higher than the five - year average. - Price: The domestic edible oil price increase in India has slowed down but is still at a high level in the same period. Sunflower oil prices are rising, rapeseed oil prices are falling rapidly, and soybean and palm oil prices are stable at high levels. It is estimated that India will import more than 700,000 tons of palm oil in October, at a relatively low level in the same period, and soybean oil imports will remain at a relatively high level. It is expected that in the 25/26 fiscal year, India's edible oil imports will continue to increase to more than 17 million tons, with a significant increase in palm oil imports and relatively stable soybean oil imports [36][37]. 3.2.4 Weak Domestic Demand and High Oil and Fat Inventory - Palm oil: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 607,100 tons, a 5.45% increase from the previous week. Imports from January to September were at a relatively low level in the same period, and the import profit was in a state of inversion. It is estimated that the inventory will continue to increase. Consumption from January to September was also at a relatively low level in the same period, the basis was oscillating weakly, and the soybean - palm oil spot price difference is expected to continue to repair. The palm oil market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [43]. - Soybean crushing: In September, soybean imports reached a record high of 12.87 million tons, a 5% month - on - month increase, and soybean crushing was also at a high level. It is expected that imports in October and November will decrease to about 9 million tons. As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 2.15% from the previous week. The market expects that the inventory will gradually decrease slightly later, but the supply is expected to be relatively loose [44]. - Rapeseed crushing: In September, domestic rapeseed crushing was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the rapeseed inventory was almost exhausted. As of October 24, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level in the same period but was decreasing. The basis of rapeseed oil has risen rapidly. Due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range [47]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil is expected to remain low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. The domestic palm oil inventory will continue to increase, and the supply will be relatively loose. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range. The overall oil and fat market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices and conducting range - bound operations [74].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Poor High - frequency Data of Malaysian Palm Oil, Oils and Fats Oscillating Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - High - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October while exports were poor, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. Palm oil lacks positive drivers and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential. Domestic soybean oil may experience slight de - stocking, and there is some support from exports. Domestic rapeseed oil continues to de - stock marginally, providing some support for its price [4][21]. Summary by Section 1. International Market 1.1 Malaysian Palm Oil - Production: MPOA data indicates a 11% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October. UOB expects the increase to be between 10% - 14%, and SPPOMA predicts a 2.71% increase compared to the same period last month. It is expected to slightly increase in October and be higher than the 5 - year average [7]. - Exports: ITS data shows a 0.4% decline in Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days of October. Overall, exports in October are expected to be average and lower than the 5 - year average. The inventory in October is expected to reach 235 - 245 tons [7]. 1.2 Indonesian Palm Oil - Biodiesel consumption: In January - September 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was 10.57 million liters, nearly 10% more than the same period last year. The implementation of biodiesel this year is smooth but may not reach the target. - Policy: Indonesia plans to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel to 50% in the second half of 2026. The predicted biodiesel target for next year is 17.55 - 17.85 million tons, with an increase in CPO of 1.8 - 2.1 million tons. However, some analysts expect the B50 policy to be postponed to 2027, which still disturbs the market [10]. 2. Domestic Market 2.1 Palm Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025 (Week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 575,700 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. It is currently at a slightly lower - than - average level in the same historical period. - Import: Palm oil imports were poor in September, only 190,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January - September were 2.25 million tons, at a historical low. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 120. It is expected that imports in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is expected to be stable and weak. - Market outlook: In the short term, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil is negative, and domestic palm oil is slightly accumulating inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential [13]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.224 million tons, a 3.25% decrease from last week. - Supply and demand: This week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. Spot transactions were weak, and there were reports of small - scale exports to India. In the future, as soybean arrivals and crushing decrease, inventory may slightly de - stock, but overall supply is sufficient. - Market outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips for the 05 contract [16]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period but is continuously de - stocking. - Supply and demand: This week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 11,000 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil increased to around $1100, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 900. Rapeseed oil imports were relatively stable, while rapeseed imports decreased significantly to 115,000 tons. - Market outlook: The overall upward momentum of oils and fats is weak. The rapeseed oil market may fluctuate due to changes in rapeseed purchases and crushing. The current fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the continuous marginal de - stocking still supports the price [19]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Oils and fats are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Consider going long on dips after the market stabilizes. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely and continue the oscillating trend next week [34]. - Medium - to long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and its center of gravity is expected to move up in the medium - to long - term [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Futures and Spot Prices - From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined, with weekly declines of 1.38%, 1.99%, and 0.55% respectively. The spot prices also decreased, with weekly declines of 1.28%, 1.12%, and 0.59% respectively [4]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of October 17, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 196 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week), 286 yuan/ton (an increase of 79 yuan/ton), and 74 yuan/ton (an increase of 8 yuan/ton) respectively. The YP spread was - 1052 yuan/ton (an increase of 84 yuan/ton from the previous week) [10]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 60,000 tons (a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 547,600 tons, the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 1,872,700 tons [13]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm oil**: MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, and Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 2.568 million tons [19]. - **Soybean oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons, the major oil mill soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill operating rate was 57%. As of October 16, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 608.30 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. - **Rapeseed oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week. As of October 17, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2066.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.20 yuan/ton from the previous week) [25]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 478.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 14.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [31]. Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance in the market; Canada's foreign minister will visit China this week, and Sino - Canadian relations may ease [32]. - **Foreign factors**: As of October 12, the US soybean harvest progress reached 58%, higher than 39% a week ago. The expected soybean good - to - excellent rate remained at 61%, the same as a week ago. The US soybean crushing volume in September 2025 was 197.863 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 186.34 million bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, the production in September decreased by 0.73% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, and the export volume increased by 7.69% month - on - month to 1.43 million tons [32]. - **Import and crushing**: The oil mill operating rate was 57%, the soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 60,000 tons, the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 547,600 tons, and the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons [32]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils declined resonantly. The decline of palm oil spot price was 1.28%, that of soybean oil was 0.59%, and that of rapeseed oil was 1.12% [32]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, palm oil futures closed down 1.38%. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, far higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Considering that Malaysian palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction cycle and Indonesia's B50 policy will be implemented, there is still support from the origin in the medium - to long - term [33]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus includes the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather [36]