国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货油脂月报 油脂 美国生物柴油或逐步落地 利多能否兑现成关键 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断 并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 2026 年 3 月 1 日 国际方面，3月美豆油市场则面临多项生物柴油政策落地，政策与预期能 否兑现成为关键，市场希望美豆油强预期的兑现。目前美豆油供给增加明显， 但需求增幅不明显，库存压力明显，如果政策利好落地，强预期向强现实转化， 那么美豆油或继续走高，如果掺混政策不及预期，那么美豆油则面临利多出尽， 回吐涨幅的可能。 对于马棕油市场而言，沉重的库存压力是制约价格走高的关键所在。从 库存来看，2025年以来马棕油库存变动情况与2018年-2019年同期较为相似， 2019年2月马棕油库存见顶回落，而2025年12月马棕油库存见顶回落。马棕油 价格在7月止跌反弹因库存降至240万吨以下。由此可以预计，短期马棕油价格 或因库存高企而低位震荡反复。一旦库存降至240万吨以下，价格或迎来上涨 契机。2月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For sugar, wait until the northern hemisphere starts to finish squeezing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, then the international sugar price may rebound. Domestically, as the supply of imported sugar gradually decreases and the sugar price falls to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased on a weekly basis, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [13]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the oil price rose significantly yesterday. The domestic inventory of the three major oils has been decreasing on a weekly basis. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to experience seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contract may fluctuate weakly, while the far - end contract may continue to correct its valuation, so maintain a short - selling strategy [19]. - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic, so maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. The far - end production capacity decline has been revised down, but there are still expectations of high fat - to - standard price differences, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand, so pay attention to the downside support after the price follows the decline [22]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5248 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. The offer price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - **Industry Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,670 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 16,183 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a decrease of 194,900 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2767 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.25% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2287 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 1.63% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was reported at 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was reported at 2490 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - **Industry Data**: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from December and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8282 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9240 yuan/ton, down 222 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9380 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9260 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Industry Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20, 2026, decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils slightly decreased by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. India's total vegetable oil imports in December 2025 were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [15][16]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices generally fell, with some areas experiencing relatively large declines. The price in Heishan remained at 3.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui dropped 0.23 yuan to 3.84 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, the supply of small eggs was slightly tight, the inventory was not large, the downstream demand was limited, the wholesale market sales slowed down, and the purchasing intention of traders weakened. Egg prices may continue to fall this week [18]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with some areas being weak. The average price in Henan rose 0.04 yuan to 12.52 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.16 yuan to 11.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farmers slowed down, the slaughter volume decreased, the downstream demand was relatively stable, the procurement difficulty increased, and the pig price mainly rose under the situation of supply less than demand. The supply pressure in a few southern regions was relatively large, and the pig price was stable. It is expected that the pig price will be mainly strong today [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the domestic three major oils are weak due to high production in palm oil - producing areas, sluggish exports, and high domestic inventories. However, in the long - term, with Indonesia's measures such as confiscating illegal plantations and implementing the B50 plan, and the expected significant increase in the total consumption of bio - diesel oils in the US in 2026, the outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. As of Friday, the May contract of soybean oil closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous week; the May contract of palm oil closed at 8,682 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton or 1.14%; the May contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,042 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.5%. In terms of spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean oil was 156 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was 112 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 21 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The basis of the May contract of soybean oil was 526 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was - 2 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 758 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Information**: Indonesia's Energy Ministry may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints. Last year, Indonesia consumed 14.2 million liters of palm - based biodiesel, a 7.6% increase from the previous year. The Energy Ministry has allocated 15.65 million liters of palm - based biodiesel for this year's blending task and plans to increase the blending ratio to 50% in the second half of the year. The Indonesian President said that Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year. The MPOB will release the December monthly supply - demand report next Monday. As of the week ending January 2, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [11]. - **Fundamentals Assessment**: The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is high, while that of palm oil is low. The biodiesel spread is neutral considering inventory, and the import profit is low. Palm oil in the producing areas still has high inventory in the first quarter. Global sunflower seed production is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, and rapeseed production will increase by 9 million tons. Global palm oil inventory is still at a low level. Overall, oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spreads between different contracts, etc., including the basis of the May contract of palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of the May contract of soybean oil, the basis of the May contract of rapeseed oil, the spread between the May contracts of soybean oil and palm oil, the May - September contract spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [19][20][23][25][27]. 3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the production and export of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply - side situation of the oils [31][33][34][35]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The report shows the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts [39]. - **Palm Oil**: It presents the near - month import profit of palm oil, the commercial inventory of palm oil, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [41][48]. - **Soybean Oil**: It shows the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants [43]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It shows the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil [45]. 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil**: It shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: It shows the import price of rapeseed oil for near - month shipments and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 6. Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: It shows the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: It shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Oil Daily Report - Report Date: January 5, 2026 - Report Type: Agricultural Product Research Report [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7,856 with a decrease of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,376, 8,416, and 8,266 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 560 (unchanged), 520 (unchanged), and 410 (up 10) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8,488 with a decrease of 96. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8,458, 8,478, and 8,608 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30 (unchanged), -10 (unchanged), and 120 (unchanged) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 9,044 with a decrease of 43. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 9,794 and 9,994 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 750 (down 50) and 950 (unchanged) [2]. Monthly Spreads - **Soybean Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 126 with a decrease of 4. - **Palm Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 112 with a decrease of 10. - **Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 35 with a decrease of 24 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P (05 contract)**: The spread was -632 with an increase of 90. - **OI - Y (05 contract)**: The spread was 1,188 with a decrease of 37. - **OI - P (05 contract)**: The spread was 556 with an increase of 53. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.85 with a decrease of 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree Palm Oil (Malaysia & Indonesia)**: The CNF price was 1,045 for a 2 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 233. - **Rapeseed Oil (Rotterdam)**: The FOB price was 1,030 for a 1 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 1,193 [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventories (in 10,000 tons, Week 52, 2025) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 108.9, last week was 112.4, and last year was 93.3. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 73.4, last week was 70.0, and last year was 50.2. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 29.1, last week was 30.8, and last year was 48.4 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high. The median estimate of 10 traders, planters, and analysts indicates a 4.7% month - on - month increase to 2.97 million tons. Production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, down 9% from the previous month, and exports are expected to grow 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [4] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices closed down more than 1%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 72.67 million tons, a 1.01% decrease from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the historical range. Import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are reports of three near - month purchases. The basis is stable. It lacks a clear driver, and a "sell on rallies" strategy is recommended [4][5] - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 175,330 tons, with an operating rate of 48.23%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.081 million tons, a 0.73% decrease from last week. It is at a high level in the historical range, but the inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis is stable with a slight decline. The market is quiet, and some mills have stopped due to lack of soybeans. Supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the crushing volume in coastal regions was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 2, 2026, the coastal inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons. It is at a high level in the historical range but is continuously decreasing. The FOB price in Europe is stable at around $1,050, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1,200. The basis is stable with a slight decline, and the market is quiet. Policy has a significant impact, and the price is still strongly supported [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term, oils are expected to fluctuate with increased volatility. Palm oil should be sold on rallies, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil market due to lack of drivers [8] Arbitrage - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] Options - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing various indicators such as spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][14][19][23]

Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining an export tax of $74 per ton and an additional 10% export levy [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain stable oil production through the first quarter of 2026, with oil prices dropping over 18% in 2025 due to concerns of oversupply, marking the largest annual decline since 2020 [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are reported at 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from the previous month, while exports for December 1-25 increased by 1.6% to 1,058,112 tons [1] - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are estimated at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from the previous month [1] Inventory and Demand - Reuters reports that Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to nearly a seven-year high, with a 4.7% month-on-month increase to 2.97 million tons, while production is expected to decline by 9% to 1.76 million tons [2] - India's palm oil imports fell to an eight-month low in December, estimated at 507,000 tons, a decrease of 20% month-on-month, which may increase inventories in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia [3] Market Sentiment - The expectation of high palm oil inventories is putting downward pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures, leading to a bearish market sentiment [5] - Seasonal declines in production are anticipated in the coming months, which may influence market dynamics [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver remains in the overseas origin markets. The weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils, and the market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and further news on Indonesia's B50 [1][2]. - In the short - term, due to the lack of trend drivers, it is advisable to treat it as a short - term range. As palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year, the pressure in the palm oil origin will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We can wait to see if it will start to rise after inventory destocking [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil origin. Malaysia's inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve the supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down the destocking pace. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which is in line with market expectations, but it has limited short - term benefits [1]. - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed to the first quarter of 2026, and the allocation ratio is uncertain [1]. - The negotiation between China and Canada shows no positive trend. However, the global new - season rapeseed harvest and the arrival of Australian rapeseeds have eased the supply tension, weakening the support for rapeseed oil. If the relationship between China and Canada recovers, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations No relevant content provided. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term low - level volatile adjustment, with a possibility of rebound in the first quarter of next year. - Price range: P2605 fluctuates in the range of [8200 - 8800], Y2605 in the range of [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 in the range of [8600 - 9500]. - Technical analysis: Treat it with a short - term low - level consolidation mindset for single - side trading. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads. - Basis strategy: Currently, view the basis with a short - term weak - volatility mindset. - Monthly spread strategy: None for now. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [22]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices: Palm oil 01 is at 8646 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 8658 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8534 yuan/ton with a 1.52% increase; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4072 ringgit/ton with a 0.62% increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 8590 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 [24]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices: Soybean oil 01 is at 8150 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase; Soybean oil 05 is at 7878 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase; Soybean oil 09 is at 7756 yuan/ton with a 0.03% decrease; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 49.26 cents/pound with a 0.12% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8220 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 [24]. - Rapeseed oil futures and spot daily prices: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9653 yuan/ton with an increase of 178; Rapeseed oil 05 is at 9040 yuan/ton with a decrease of 6; Rapeseed oil 09 is at 8997 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17; ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton with an increase of 1; East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10130 yuan/ton with an increase of 250 [24]. - Oil monthly and inter - variety spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 12 yuan/ton with an increase of 20; Y - P 01 is - 444 yuan/ton with an increase of 38; etc. [25]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 2130000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 220000 tons. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1089000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34500 tons, a decrease of 3.07%. In October, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year decline of about 3%. The production of crude palm oil was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than 2.59 million tons in the previous month [26][27]. - **Negative Information**: Favorable weather conditions in South America for soybean harvest, light trading before the New Year holiday, and the start of sporadic soybean harvesting in Brazil have weakened the upward space of the US soybean market. The ICE Canadian rapeseed futures market closed lower, mainly reflecting sufficient supply. The import of soybeans is still sufficient despite the oil mills' intention to hold prices [28]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions have remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [30]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and high - frequency export data; Origin weather information [40]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market continued to fluctuate widely this week. The pressure in the origin has not been cleared, lacking a trend - driven upward momentum. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the global oil market demand expansion is limited. The recent positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious. Foreign capital has insufficient confidence in the oil sector [39]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the main basis of oils continued to bottom - out and consolidate. Due to high domestic oil inventories and general downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [42]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of soybean oil became shallower, and the weak reality continued to suppress the disk. The spot end of palm oil is still weak, but the expected decrease in supply pressure in the first quarter of next year has injected a premium into the 05 contract. There is still a supply gap in the near - month rapeseed oil, but it is expected to ease over time [42]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads rebounded slightly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts destocking, the support improves, and the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [49]. 3.3.2 External Market This week, the external market fluctuated. The pressure in the palm oil origin remained unchanged, with insufficient weather disturbances and limited expectations for Indonesia's B50. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and the US soybean lacks positive drivers, showing a weak oscillation. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and the US soybean oil has declined, dragging down the international palm oil, which also remained weak [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain This week, the POGO spread rebounded slightly as the palm oil price stabilized, and the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels increased slightly. The BOHO spread continued to weaken due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, and the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel remained at a multi - year low [56]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the origin price has been consolidating at a low level, and the import profit has changed slightly with a limited profit range. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the profit weakened again near the end of the year [58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in December, but the export boost was insufficient. It is expected that an inventory inflection point may be seen in January [62]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. As it enters the production - reduction season in the origin, the willingness to sell is limited. Considering the easy solidification of palm oil in winter and the negative basis, domestic orders are not expected to increase. We can wait for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [64]. - **Soybean Oil**: In December, the arrival of raw materials decreased, and the crushing volume declined. Although the current inventory pressure is large and the overall supply is relatively loose, the seasonal shortage of soybean arrivals in the first quarter needs attention [64]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseeds are arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory is mainly in the process of destocking. With the global rapeseed harvest, the cost price is weak. More Australian rapeseeds will arrive next year, and if the China - Canada relationship improves, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [64]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction In the short - term, the inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. After the festival stocking ends, the boost to the market is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market. The market will maintain low - level fluctuations, waiting for the US energy policy and further news on Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8,200 yuan/ton, and the palm oil may have a chance to improve in the future [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the oil market lies in the external market. Key issues include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the impact of China - Canada relations on rapeseed oil supply, and the overall sufficient supply of the three major domestic oils [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - No specific content provided other than the headings. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - The short - term trend is low - level shock adjustment, with a possible rebound in Q1 2026. The price ranges for P2605, Y2605, and OI2605 are [8,200 - 8,800], [7,600 - 8,100], and [8,600 - 9,500] respectively. Technical analysis suggests a short - term low - level consolidation approach for single - side trading and observing the weakening trend of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads for arbitrage. The current basis is expected to be weak in the short term, and the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads are expected to weaken [19]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on basis, spreads, and other indicators [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The US will exempt Indonesia's palm oil tariffs. Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in December. Indonesia has started the B50 biodiesel road test, and its implementation is likely in H2 2026. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October [23][24]. - **Likely Negative Information**: Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is similar to 2025. China's palm oil inventory increased in December. Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased in December. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Key events include domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysia's palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the US small refinery exemption re - allocation, China - Canada trade negotiation progress, and producing area weather information [33]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market was weak this week, lacking upward drivers. Capital trends showed a bearish sentiment in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. The basis continued to be weak, and the market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. The rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads weakened slightly [32][35][43]. - **International Market**: The international market was weak and volatile. Palm oil producing areas faced pressure, and the US soybean market lacked positive drivers. The market sentiment was pessimistic [45]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread rebounded slightly, and the BOHO spread continued to weaken [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Import profits fluctuated slightly, but were limited. Profits weakened again near the end of the year [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Producing Area Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Malaysia's palm oil inventory pressure remained in November. December production decreased, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [55]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: Low - season demand and winter factors limit domestic purchases. Wait for inventory pressure relief. - Soybean oil: December raw material arrivals may decline, but inventory is still abundant. Pay attention to potential short - term supply shortages in Q1. - Rapeseed oil: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed arrivals have increased, the supply gap may gradually disappear [57]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Short - term demand for the three major oils is weak. The traditional consumption peak in Q4 has limited impact, and the overall demand is expected to remain stable and weak [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. High - frequency shipping data showed that the export data in early December was also poor, possibly related to India's reduced palm oil purchases. In December, the destocking cycle is not expected to start yet. The high inventory in the producing areas continues to suppress prices. Currently, it is still in the stage of negative realization, and there is no substantial positive news yet. Future attention should be paid to the production and export situations in the producing areas [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or 0.97% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan or 0.86%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,063 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan or 1.45% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.17%, with a spot basis of P05 + 20 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.84%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 408 yuan, a decrease of 2 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan or 1.24%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 497 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan [1] Market Information - Affected by the shutdown of coastal oil mills, the output of imported and pressed rapeseed oil continued to stagnate last week. Against the background of overall sluggish spot trading, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil maintained a passive downward trend and has dropped to a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.34% from the previous week. The contract volume was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons or 9.98% from the previous week [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,159 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,120 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,070 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) was 484 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (January shipment) was 245 cents/bushel, unchanged; US West Coast (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from December 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.55% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 2.97% [2]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil and fat market, with the market in a wide - range oscillation, waiting for the final US energy policy and further news on Indonesia's B50 [1][2]. - The future trading of the oil and fat market will focus on the final determination of US biofuel obligations, the supply - demand balance game in palm oil - producing areas, the arrival schedule of US soybeans, and the progress of China - Canada relations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the oil and fat market lies in the game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil - producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the potential tight supply of rapeseed due to China - Canada relations, and the overall sufficient supply of the three major domestic oils and fats [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range oscillation adjustment, with a possible upward shift in the price center in the medium term. - **Price Ranges**: P2601 oscillates between 8200 - 8900 yuan/ton, Y2601 between 8000 - 8400 yuan/ton, and OI between 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton. - **Technical Analysis**: For single - side short - term trading, consider a rebound in palm oil; for arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil 9300 - 10300 yuan/ton, and palm oil 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [21][23]. - **Strategies**: Adopt a short - term weak - oscillation view for the basis strategy; for the calendar - spread strategy, with high uncertainty in Indonesia's B50 policy next year, holders of the P1 - 5 reverse spread can take profits [22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides detailed information on the daily prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both the futures and spot markets [24][25]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Indonesia's palm oil rectification is accelerating, which may disrupt production efficiency [26]. - **Negative Information**: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November is expected to reach a six - year high; domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories are increasing, and the soybean crushing volume is high [27]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil and fat transactions have remained stable, with an increase in rapeseed oil transactions and a slight decline in soybean oil and palm oil transactions [28]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysia's high - frequency palm oil production and export data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35]. 3. Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil and fat market rebounded this week, but lacks upward momentum. Capital trends vary among palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with different positions and sentiment [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil and fat contracts continued to bottom out this week, remaining weak due to high inventory and average demand [33]. - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: The oil and fat market shows differentiation, with the soybean oil and rapeseed oil in a Back structure that has become shallower; the palm oil 1 - 5 spread has repaired upward, indicating lower expectations for the producing areas next year [34]. - **Spread Structure**: The soybean - palm, rapeseed - soybean, and rapeseed - palm spreads all declined slightly this week, with rapeseed oil weakening and palm oil rebounding slightly [61]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weakly oscillating this week, with palm oil and soybean oil under pressure due to a lack of positive factors [65]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads rebounded slightly this week, but the cost of soybean oil - based biodiesel remained at a multi - year low [68]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As a net importer of palm oil, China's import profit has changed slightly, with few new purchases due to the negative basis [70]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections in Producing Areas - Malaysia's palm oil production in November is expected to decline slightly, but the inventory is expected to reach a six - and - a - half - year high, with supply pressure still existing [72]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Palm oil: Low procurement willingness due to the negative basis, and limited domestic purchases are expected during the off - season [75]. - Soybean oil: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [75]. - Rapeseed oil: The inventory will continue to decline, and supply may be tight if China - Canada relations do not improve [75]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - The short - term inventory of the three major oils and fats is relatively high, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall terminal demand for oils and fats may remain stable and weak [77].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.19% to 8632.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Malaysia's palm oil inventory surged to its highest level in over six years due to a decline in exports in November, with a 10% increase from the previous month to 2.71 million tons, marking a 47% rise compared to the same period last year [2] - On December 3, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports reached 300 tons, a 200% increase compared to the previous trading day [3] - The CNF price for 24-degree palm oil for December and January shipments was reported at 1049 to 1051 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 20 to 27 USD/ton, which translates to a total cost of 8860 to 8870 yuan/ton upon arrival in South China, up by 160 to 210 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Group 2: Institutional Insights - CICC Futures noted that external factors stimulating the oil market are receding, shifting market focus to the MPOB monthly report. High inventory levels of domestic edible oils limit the upward momentum for soybean and rapeseed oils, with palm oil futures expected to face downward pressure [4] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures highlighted that the weak ADP employment data in the U.S. for November and the potential for a rate cut in December are contributing to a weaker dollar index, while oil prices remain low. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to reach 2.66 million tons in November, up from 2.46 million tons the previous month, indicating ample supply. Weather conditions in Southeast Asia may impact supply, leading to a forecasted reduction in production, which could provide support for prices. Short-term palm oil is expected to trade within a range [4]