热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （来源：粮信网） 本周适逢元旦假期，国内油脂上涨乏力，三大油脂维持区间震荡整理。小长假前工厂均有停机检修计 划，部分工厂大豆到厂延迟或影响开机时间。那么周内外围油脂期价跌跌不休的状态下，国内油脂能否 逆势迎来一波上涨行情呢？ 美豆市场交投清淡 周内CBOT大豆期货以下跌为主，主因仍是围绕着出口疲软与南美丰产预期为主。首先，自10月份中美 关系缓和以来，中国采买进度影响美豆走势。据最新媒体报道称，中国在2025年已采购至少800万吨美 国大豆，逐步接近1200万吨的采购目标，已成交船货主要集中在12月至次年3月装船。但是由于中美之 间尚未达成正式贸易协议，市场对后续采购节奏仍存疑虑，这种不确定性被部分交易者视为压制大豆价 格的重要因素。其次，当下南美天气，特别是巴西天气相当不错，丰产可期，进入1月份巴西部分早熟 地块进入收割期。叠加美豆价格优势不明显，使得美豆未来压力重重。 周内棕榈油期价下跌 本周马来西亚棕榈油期价以下跌为主，周内跌幅2.42%。在刚刚结束的2025年，棕榈油期货下跌近9%， 主要因为棕榈油供应增长，出口需求面临印尼竞争，令吉汇 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on agricultural products (oils) dated December 1, 2025, released by the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 3: Core Views - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Group 4: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with a gain of 44. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8588, and 8458 respectively. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300, 270, and 170 respectively [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8652 with a gain of 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8602, 8732, and 8762 respectively. Basis values in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 50, 80, and 110 respectively [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9770 with a gain of 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10070, 10320. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 300, and 550 respectively [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 202 with a decline of 2. For palm oil, it was - 46 with a gain of 6. For rapeseed oil, it was 286 with a gain of 30 [2] Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 364 with a gain of 18, the OI - Y spread was 1482 with a decline of 31, the OI - P spread was 1118 with a decline of 13, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a gain of 0.02 [2] Import Profits - The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 225, and the CNF price was 1048. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1074, and the FOB price was 1095 [2] Weekly Commercial Inventories - In the 47th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118.0 tons (last week: 114.9 tons, last year: 105.3 tons), palm oil was 66.7 tons (last week: 65.3 tons, last year: 48.3 tons), and rapeseed oil was 38.5 tons (last week: 43.0 tons, last year: 44.1 tons) [2] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to foreign media reports, the devastating floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not had a significant impact on palm oil production. The affected areas are mostly residential areas rather than palm oil plantations [4] Domestic Market - Palm oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons (2.13%). It is at a neutral level compared to historical periods. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has widened to about - 300. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks a clear driver, with limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Soybean oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons (2.73%). It is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The basis is stable. There are rumors of 1 - 3 tons of soybean oil exports. Domestic demand is average. Short - term supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see and then try to go long lightly after a callback [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of November 21, 2025, the coastal inventory was 38.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 tons. It is at a high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has widened to about - 1000. The domestic basis is strong. It is expected that the coastal inventory will continue to decrease. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts when there is a callback [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Options - It is recommended to wait and see [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: High - frequency data is bearish, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increases, so palm oil will run weakly; Australian rapeseed will arrive at ports one after another, but it will take time for customs clearance and pressing, so rapeseed oil will run in a volatile manner; soybean oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with ample supply, and will run weakly due to the disturbance of US biodiesel policy [28]. - Medium - to long - term: After palm oil finds the bottom in a volatile manner, considering that the producing areas are about to enter the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil needs to closely monitor the Sino - Canadian trade trend, which may determine the futures price trend; the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering that soybean oil consumption is still cost - effective, the cost center is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Three - major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 1.09%, 1.08%, and 0.80% respectively. The spot prices decreased by 0.16%, 1.43%, and 0.47% respectively [4]. 3.2 Three - major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 20, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), 361 yuan/ton (an increase of 9 yuan/ton), and 30 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton) respectively. As of November 21, 2025, the YP price difference was - 360 yuan/ton (an increase of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three - major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.08 million tons (a decrease of 0.52 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 65.32 million tons (an increase of 5.59 million tons); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.85 million tons (a decrease of 0.87 million tons); the total inventory of the three - major oils was 182.25 million tons (an increase of 4.2 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of November 21, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8813 yuan/ton (a decrease of 152 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 79 yuan/ton (an increase of 171 yuan/ton). From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 992.60 million tons (a decrease of 40.8 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 747.71 million tons (a decrease of 14.24 million tons), and the mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 7% from the previous week). The soybean crushing profit was - 573.35 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.85 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons (a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week). As of November 20, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2533.80 yuan/ton (a decrease of 159.4 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 20, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1400 tons, the trading volume of first - class soybean oil was 12500 tons, and the POGO price difference was 345.24 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Three - major Oil Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: There have been many disturbances in the US biodiesel policy recently. There are rumors of more favorable blending volume and also negative news of delaying or reducing import biofuel subsidies. The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring on November 20, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy and replacing the renewable energy efficiency department. The market is also concerned about the progress of Sino - Canadian trade relations [26]. - **Foreign Factors**: The latest USDA supply - and - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. In addition, exports were unexpectedly lowered by 50 million bushels, about 1.36 million tons. From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 20.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil [26]. - **Import and Pressing**: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week [26]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 2.08 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 65.32 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 114.85 million tons [26]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three - major oils decreased in resonance. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, rapeseed oil by 1.43%, and soybean oil by 0.47% [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil market is that after a significant decline, it has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short - term, each oil variety lacks a clear driving force, and the upward space is limited [6][8][9]. - For palm oil, one can consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy and the October Malaysian palm oil production [6]. - For soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [8]. - For rapeseed oil, continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8188, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8438, 8488, and 8358 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is 300, 250, and 170 respectively [3]. - Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 8732, up 142. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8632, 8732, and 8832 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 100, 0, and 100 respectively [3]. - Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9564, up 157. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9914 and 10064 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi is 350 and 500 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 182, down 6; for palm oil, it is - 66, up 40; for rapeseed oil, it is 391, up 46 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The Y - P 01 contract spread is - 544, up 107; the OI - Y spread is 1376, up 92; the OI - P spread is 832, up 15; the oil - meal ratio is 2.67, up 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 224, with a CNF price of 1045 for the December shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1331, with a FOB price of 1085 for the December shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 121.6 (last year's same - period 110.1, last week 125.0), palm oil inventory is 53.9, and rapeseed oil inventory is 51.4 (last year's same - period 41.8, last week 53.5) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Palm companies have increased the discount on soybean oil, attracting buyers from India and Pakistan. India bought about 140,000 tons of palm oil this week, and Pakistan's purchases remained stable. However, factors such as higher - than - expected production prospects of growers, a decline in Malaysia's exports in early November, and a stronger ringgit may limit price increases [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The price has stabilized and rebounded, and the YP spread has widened, making palm oil more cost - effective. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 59.28 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from last week, a decline of 2.36%. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 300. There are rumors of 3 near - month purchase ships today. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price oscillated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2253400 tons, with an operating rate of 61.99%. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1215800 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from last week, a decline of 2.76%. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price oscillated higher, up more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6000 tons, with an operating rate of 1.6%. As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 514000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 1100. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see for palm oil [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][17].

Group 1: Overnight Market Information - The soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso for the 2025/26 season has reached 60.05%, an increase of 16.48 percentage points from last week, higher than the five - year average of 57.27% and the same period last year of 55.73% [1] Group 2: Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/10/20 | 2870 | 2480 | 8540 | - | 10230 | | 2025/10/21 | 2870 | 2450 | 8550 | 9200 | 10210 | | 2025/10/22 | 2860 | 2440 | 8480 | 9070 | 10160 | | 2025/10/23 | 2910 | 2470 | 8410 | 9030 | 10060 | | 2025/10/24 | 2910 | 2460 | 8440 | 9020 | 10090 | [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, selling put - type strategies on dips can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2601 contract were 8150, 9234, and 10093 respectively, with changes of (12), (2), and (69). The spot basis of different varieties in various regions also showed different trends. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and in Tianjin it was 170 with a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 238, 174, and 503 respectively, with changes of 2, (10), and (17) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (1084), 1943, and 859 respectively, with changes of (10), (57), and (67). The oil - meal ratio was 2.78 with a change of (0.0003) [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the October shipment had a CNF price of 1096 and a negative profit of (119); the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the November shipment was 1069 and a negative profit of (433) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 38th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 123.6, 58.5, and 58.6 million tons respectively, compared with 125.1, 64.2, and 61.0 million tons last week and 115.6, 50.6, and 40.5 million tons in the same period last year [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the next few months, reaching around 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports to meet holiday demand [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons or 5.62% from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 150. The basis is stable. The short - term market lacks a clear driver but has strong bottom support, and it is recommended to consider light - position buying on significant dips [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 226.72 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%. As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 124.87 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons or 1.04% from last week. The short - term domestic supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. Considering the uncertainty of U.S. soybean imports, it is recommended to consider buying on significant dips [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 2 million tons, with an operating rate of 5.33%. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons or 2.2%. The European rapeseed oil FOB price has increased, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 450. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and the basis is stable with an increase. The coastal de - stocking trend is expected to continue. Considering the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect the oil and fat futures market to fluctuate, and consider buying on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Consider selling put - type strategies on dips [11]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the historical trends of spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, including data from 2016 - 2025 [14][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market lacks a strong upward driver and will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the later period, the combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and the stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4][53]. - Currently, domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking, and it may continue to do so slightly in the future, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight [4][53]. - The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. With insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking, which will support its price [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats. The rapeseed oil 01 contract rose nearly 4%, soybean oil fell more than 2%, and palm oil fell nearly 1% [3][10]. - Affected by policies such as the US renewable fuel policy, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and Argentina's export tariff policy, the oil and fat market fluctuated. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen, with OI - Y01 reaching a high of around 2000 [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In the short term, the oil and fat futures market will maintain a volatile trend, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips. The combined inventory of palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will remain below the 5 - year average, and stable spot prices in the producing areas will support palm oil prices [4]. - Domestic soybean oil is slightly destocking and may continue to do so slightly, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and it will continue to destock marginally, which will support its price [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: In the short term, the oil and fat market is volatile. Consider buying on dips in batches [5]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a positive spread arbitrage strategy for OI 1 - 5, but do not chase high prices [5]. - Options: Buy call options or sell put options [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, in September, there was significant differentiation among oils and fats, and the market fluctuated due to policy factors. The spreads OI - Y01 and OI - P01 continued to strengthen [3][10]. 3.2.2 Malaysia's Palm Oil Inventory Accumulated in August, Indonesia's Production Surged in July, and the Overall Inventory Remains Tight - Malaysia: In August, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil reached 220 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase. Production increased by 2% to 186 tons, exports decreased to 132 tons, and apparent consumption reached a record high. It is expected that the production increase in September may decline, with an estimated output of about 177 tons, slightly lower than the 5 - year average. Exports in September are expected to be slightly higher than the 5 - year average [15]. - Indonesia: In July, Indonesia's palm oil production reached 560 tons, a 6% increase, and exports were 354 tons. The inventory slightly increased to 257 tons, remaining at a historically low level. As of July, the cumulative production from January to July was 3349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. It is expected that the annual production increase will exceed 200 tons [23]. 3.2.3 The International Soybean Oil Price Declined, and India Made Large - Scale Soybean Oil Purchases - Import: As of August, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 1238 tons, an 8% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by 19%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 389 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 25% [31]. - Inventory: In August, India's port inventory increased to 97 tons. Palm oil inventory increased from 45 to 54 tons, while sunflower oil and soybean oil inventories decreased to around 21 tons [31]. - Price: Recently, the increase in India's domestic edible oil prices has slowed down. Currently, India mainly has import and refining profits for sunflower oil. Due to Argentina's cancellation of soybean export tariffs, the international soybean oil price declined, and the soybean - palm oil spread narrowed to below 0 dollars. It is rumored that India purchased 30 tons of Argentine soybean oil [31]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oils and Fats May Gradually Destock, and the Basis of Oils and Fats Will Increase Steadily - Palm oil: As of September 19, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 58.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 tons. The import profit was negative, but the purchase enthusiasm increased, and the far - month purchases were relatively large. It is expected that the combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [35][37]. - Soybean oil: In August, soybean crushing was about 899 tons, and soybean oil production was about 171 tons. In September and October, soybean arrivals and crushing are expected to decrease. As of September 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 123.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease. The soybean oil market will maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider buying on dips [38]. - Rapeseed oil: In August, rapeseed crushing was about 22 tons, and rapeseed oil production was about 10 tons. As of September 19, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.61 tons, a decrease. Due to insufficient rapeseed supply, rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [39][40]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that Malaysian palm oil production may decline in September, and exports may increase slightly. The combined inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil will remain below the 5 - year average, and one can consider buying the 01 contract on dips [53]. - Domestic soybean oil will continue to slightly destock, but the inventory is unlikely to be tight. One can consider buying on dips when the price is low [53]. - Domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue destocking. One can consider buying on dips on a single - side basis and maintaining a positive spread arbitrage strategy for the 1 - 5 spread, but not chasing high prices [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of palm oil has improved overall, with production decreasing and exports increasing in August in Malaysia. Indonesia's palm oil production and inventory data also show certain trends. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the overall situation of the three major oils is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and policies [27][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined. Palm oil futures fell by 2.88%, rapeseed oil by 1.02%, and soybean oil by 1.18%. The spot prices also decreased, with palm oil down 0.40%, rapeseed oil down 0.58%, and soybean oil down 0.94% [2] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of August 28, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 76 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), 117 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton), and 118 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 29, the YP spread was - 958 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.5 tons (up 0.05 tons from the previous week), the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 58.21 tons (down 3.52 tons), the national soybean oil mill inventory was 118.60 tons (up 4.33 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.31 tons (up 0.86 tons) [8] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [11] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.80 tons (down 2.8 tons from the previous week), the major oil mill soybean inventory was 682.53 tons (up 2.13 tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (unchanged from the previous week). As of August 29, the soybean crushing profit was - 586.00 yuan/ton (down 19.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [17] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 15 tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2575.00 yuan/ton (up 291.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20] Demand Side - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 2966 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 10000 tons. The POGO spread was 450.99 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [26] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. Foreign: USDA reported that the US soybean yield increased, the sown area decreased, and the production decreased; MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports all changed in July. Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate was unchanged, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories were stable. Inventory: The rapeseed oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean oil inventory increased. Spot: The spot prices of the three major oils all decreased this week [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Palm oil fluctuated weakly at a high level this week, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 9200 - 9650. Medium - and long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and the expected fluctuation range is 9200 - 10000. The focus and risk warnings next week are the US biodiesel policy, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [28][29][30]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8984 | 8936 | 8980 | 8828 | 8946 | -38 | -0.42% | 604377 | 449955 | -6493 | | P2601 | 8972 | 8940 | 8962 | 8814 | 8932 | -40 | -0.45% | 126478 | 172241 | -2218 | | Y2509 | 8160 | 8160 | 8160 | 8062 | 8120 | -40 | -0.49% | 281245 | 490324 | -14314 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8104 | 8120 | 8022 | 8076 | -38 | -0.47% | 104689 | 384599 | 3856 | | OI2509 | 9441 | 9457 | 9467 | 9330 | 9406 | -35 | -0.37% | 258838 | 201338 | -9445 | | OI2601 | 9388 | 9409 | 9413 | 9280 | 9357 | -31 | -0.33% | 64240 | 111834 | 3489 | [7] 1.2 Basis Price - East China Rapeseed Oil Trader Quotes: 7 - 8 months: OI2509 + 90; 9 - 10 months: OI2509 + 140 for third - grade rapeseed oil; 7 months: OI2509 + 170; 8 months: OI2509 + 190 for first - grade rapeseed oil. - East China Soybean Oil Basis Price: Spot soybean oil: Y2509 + 90; 8 - 9 months: Y2509 + 160; 10 - 1 months: Y2601 + 230. - East China Spot 24 - degree Palm Oil: P09 + 50 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] 1.3 Oil and Fat Comments - Palm oil is undergoing high - level adjustments, mainly due to the drag of Malaysian palm oil trends and concerns about continuous growth in port inventories. From July 1 to 25, palm oil exports decreased by 9.2% - 15.2% month - on - month, leading to concerns about inventory backlog. The production increase and weak demand are pressuring palm oil prices. - Rapeseed oil is affected by both sufficient domestic supply and policies, with a weak basis. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. - Soybean oil continues to trade in the range of 7800 - 8200. Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Its price is mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. - The basis of the three major domestic oils in the spot market has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to appropriately buy far - month basis. The oils are expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with recent rotation of varieties for speculation. Risk control should be noted. [8] 2. Industry News - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil (including refined products), a nearly 50% month - on - month increase. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that from July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.24% month - on - month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 18.95% month - on - month, while in Sabah it decreased by 0.14% month - on - month, in Sarawak it increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and in East Malaysia it increased by 0.01% month - on - month. [9] 3. Data Overview - AmSpec Agri data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June. ITS data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to June 1 - 25. - The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) data showed that from July 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.03% month - on - month and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The European Commission data showed that as of July 20, EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting July 1) were 519,609 tons, a 32% year - on - year decrease. As of July 20, EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]