大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 国际市场：ITS 数据显示，马来西亚 8 月 1-25 日棕榈油出口量为 1141661 吨，较上月同 期出口的 1029585 吨增加 10.9%。 国内市场（P/Y/OI）：今日棕榈油期价震荡小幅收跌。截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日（第 34 周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存 58.21 万吨，环比上周减少 3.52 万吨，减幅 5.70%，处 于历史同期中性略偏高水平。产地报价有所减少，进口利润倒挂有所缩小。传今日存在 1 船 远月买船。现货市场变化不大，基差稳中有增，关注后期国内买船及到港情况。短期油脂市 场消息较多，对油脂盘面造成较大扰动，棕榈油或将出现回调，多单持有者可考虑部分止盈 部分持有，无单者可耐心等待回调后继续逢低试多。 今日豆油期价震荡小幅收涨。上周油厂大豆实际压榨量 227 万吨，开机率为 63.81%，较 前一周有所减少。截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日，全国重点地区豆油商业库存 118.6 万吨，环比上 周增加 4.33 万吨，增幅 3.79%，略低于历史同期，但高于三年同期水平。基差偏稳运行。短 期油脂上涨动力有所不足，豆油表现将更为抗跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

Report Information - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - With good palm oil production data from Indonesia and the upcoming harvest of North American soybeans and rapeseeds, the single - sided trend of oils may face upward pressure [8]. - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil in August was OI2601 + 130, from September to October it was OI2601 + 200, and from August to September it was OI601 + 160 (non - GMO). The basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil in August was OI2601 + 180. For soybean oil, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil in the spot market was 01 + 170, from August to September it was Y2601 + 190, from October to November it was Y2601 + 240, from October to January it was Y2601 + 260, and from February to May it was Y2605 + 180. The basis price of third - grade soybean oil was 01 + 120. In the Dongguan market, the price of 24 - degree palm oil was 01 - 50 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: With the good production data of Indonesian palm oil and the upcoming listing of North American soybeans and rapeseeds, the single - sided trend of oils may face upward pressure. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [8]. 3.2. Industry News - **Indonesia Palm Oil**: In June, Indonesia's crude palm oil production increased by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons. In the first half of the year, the production of palm oil, including palm kernel oil, reached 27.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Despite the production increase, due to the continuous rise in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. In June, Indonesia exported 3.61 million tons of palm oil, a month - on - month increase of 35.4% [8][9]. - **Malaysia Palm Oil**: From August 1 to 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.3% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 2.12% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.46% month - on - month [10]. - **Purchase Progress**: As of August 19, the cumulative purchase of the August shipment was 9.171 million tons, with a purchase progress of 100%. The cumulative purchase of the September shipment was 8.439 million tons, a weekly increase of 129,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 99.22%. The cumulative purchase of the October shipment was 5.478 million tons, a weekly increase of 1.253 million tons, with a purchase progress of 68.48%. The cumulative purchase of the November shipment was 724,000 tons, a weekly increase of 196,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 11.14%. The cumulative purchase of the December shipment was 66,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 1.47%. The cumulative purchase of the February 2026 shipment was 1.782 million tons, a weekly increase of 268,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 18.76%. The cumulative purchase of the March 2026 shipment was 5.544 million tons, a weekly increase of 462,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 46.2% [10]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China Grade 4 soybean oil, the spot price of South China 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 spread, the P5 - 9 spread, the P9 - 1 spread, the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, etc. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][12][16]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - Palm oil has strong fundamental support, and it is advisable to go long during macro pullbacks [1]. - Soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,486 yuan/ton with a -1.06% change, and night - time closing price was 9,560 yuan/ton with a 0.78% change; soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,442 yuan/ton with a -1.31% change, and night - time closing price was 8,418 yuan/ton with a -0.28% change; rapeseed oil's daytime closing price was 9,901 yuan/ton with a 0.03% change, and night - time closing price was 9,782 yuan/ton with a -1.20% change. The Malaysian palm oil's daytime closing price was 4,497 ringgit/ton with a -0.51% change, and night - time closing price was 4,529 ringgit/ton with a 0.69% change. CBOT soybean oil's daytime closing price was 51.41 cents/pound with a -0.77% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 7,875 to 79,561 lots, and open interest decreased by 26,336 to 97,566 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 14,509 to 97,939 lots, and open interest decreased by 44,957 to 111,062 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 5,695 to 23,619 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,258 to 38,617 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,510 yuan/ton; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 8,610 yuan/ton; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 9,830 yuan/ton; Malaysian palm oil FOB price decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 1,110 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 24 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 168 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 71 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 274 yuan/ton (previous trading day) and 210 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,140 yuan/ton and - 1,114 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 68 yuan/ton and - 52 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 28 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 73 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - The direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be limited due to the uniqueness and non - substitutability of Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certified products. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the total annual exports. The government will continue to provide assistance through various measures such as the oil palm smallholder replanting financing incentive program [2][3]. - Amspec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month. ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [3]. [Trend Strength] - Palm oil trend strength is 0, and soybean oil trend strength is 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic three major oils reduced positions and declined, with some seats taking profits. Technically, there is a short - term adjustment need, so be cautious about chasing high [8]. - Palm oil is expected to maintain a high - level shock consolidation trend. Although the export growth rate has narrowed and production is seasonally increasing with expected inventory growth in August - September, Indian import demand may rebound in August [8]. - Due to domestic tariff policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of going long remains until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired [8]. - For soybean oil, the short - term inventory is high and the supply is abundant, but it is bullish in the long - term due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, possible reduction in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and warming domestic demand [8]. - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to overweight rapeseed oil and underweight soybean oil [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of rapeseed oil and soybean oil has different performance in different months. For example, the basis of East China third - grade rapeseed oil in August is OI2601 + 130, and the basis of one - grade soybean oil in the spot market is 01 + 170 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For palm oil, expect high - level shock consolidation; for rapeseed oil, maintain the long - buying logic; for soybean oil, be bullish in the long - term; and in arbitrage, overweight rapeseed oil and underweight soybean oil [8]. 2. Industry News - Independent inspection agency AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from July 1 - 20 [9]. - Shipping survey agency ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were 724,191 tons, a 16.5% increase from July 1 - 15, with exports to China decreasing by 28,300 tons compared to the same period last month [9]. - AmSpec data also shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were 696,425 tons, a 21.3% increase from July 1 - 15 [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit [11][17][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to start a high - level correction due to factors such as the approaching final contract - changing period and profit - taking after recent price increases, but the correction range is limited. [11] - For different oil products, there are different trends and trading suggestions, including specific views on palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. [5][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8414 with a decline of 112. Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 9554 with a decline of 86. Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9828 with a decline of 22. The basis of each variety in different regions is also presented. [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil is 290 with a decline of 30, palm oil is 306 with a decline of 2, and rapeseed oil is 145 with a decline of 6. [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread is - 1140 with a decline of 26, the OI - Y spread is 1414 with an increase of 90, the OI - P spread is 274 with an increase of 64, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.66 with a decline of 0.03. [3] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 144, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 485. [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 33rd week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 109.6 million tons, palm oil inventory is 60.0 million tons, and rapeseed oil inventory is 66.0 million tons. [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase compared to the same period last month. [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures price fluctuated and slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 61.73 million tons, a 2.92% increase from the previous week. The import profit inversion has expanded, and there was a reported purchase of one ship. [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated and declined by over 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 233.9 million tons with an operating rate of 65.75%. As of August 15, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 114.27 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week. [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and slightly declined. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 million tons with an operating rate of 11.94%. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week. The import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has expanded. [9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - term shorting or waiting patiently for a correction to go long at low prices. [11] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking. P15 can be considered to be widened after a correction. [11] - **Option Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. [12] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the spot basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025. [15][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to start a high - level correction due to factors such as the approaching final contract - changing period and profit - taking after recent price increases, but the correction amplitude is expected to be limited [5][6][9][11] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8526 with a rise of 10; palm oil's 2601 closing price was 9640 with a rise of 56; and rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price was 9850 with a rise of 24. The basis of each variety in different regions had different changes [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 320 with a fall of 62; for palm oil, it was 308 with a rise of 8; and for rapeseed oil, it was 151 with a rise of 5 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 1114 with a fall of 46; the OI - Y spread was 1324; the OI - P spread was 210 with a fall of 32; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70 with a fall of 0.002 [3] - **Import Profits**: The盘面 profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 119, and the盘面 profit of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil was - 533 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (2025, Week 33)**: The soybean oil inventory was 60.0 tons, the palm oil inventory was 61.7 tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 66.0 tons. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventories had different changes [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) stated that supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth, Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to remain above 4300 ringgit. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of August 15, 2025 (Week 33), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 61.73 tons, a 2.92% increase from last week. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. Short - term, the palm oil price may correct, and holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 233.9 tons, and the operating rate was 65.75%. As of August 15, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 114.27 tons, a 0.44% increase from last week. The basis was stable. Short - term, the oil price may correct, and soybean oil will be more resistant to the decline. The YP01 may rebound in the short term [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The spot market was weak, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. Short - term, policy disturbances are frequent, and the price will maintain a wide - range shock [9] Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term, the oil price is expected to correct at a high level, but the correction amplitude is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, and those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the correction and then going long at a low price [11] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding; the P15 can be considered to be widened after the correction [11] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [12] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oil products [15][18]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 19 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 | | | 华东三级菜油：8 月：OI2601+110，9-10 月：OI2601+200，8-9 月：OI601+160(非 转)华东转一级菜油：8 月：OI2601+180。华东市场豆油基差价格：现货：Y2601+80， 9 月：Y2601+100，10-11 月：Y2601+160，10-1 月：Y2601+210。东莞各厂 24 度 01-80。 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of edible oils fluctuated after a sharp rise, driven by positive news. The domestic vegetable oil market has been rising alternately due to multiple factors such as raw material costs, biodiesel policies, and trade relations. The positive impact of raw material costs on edible oils is expected to continue, and the domestic edible oil market is expected to remain strong. However, after continuous price increases, there is significant upward pressure, and short - term sharp fluctuations are possible [8][31][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review and Important Information - **Futures Prices**: This week, the Y2601 soybean oil futures contract rose 1.74% to close at 8,534 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil futures contract rose 5.11% to close at 9,460 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil futures contract rose 2.05% to close at 9,757 yuan/ton [5][29]. - **Palm Oil**: According to the August Malaysian Palm Oil MPOB report, in July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; and the end - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The production and inventory data were lower than expected, and the report was positive, driving the Malaysian palm oil futures price up 5.27%. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026 [6][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: On August 12, after the market closed, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed in the form of a deposit. Starting from August 14, 2025, importers purchasing Canadian rapeseed through Canadian companies need to provide a deposit ratio of up to 75.8% to Chinese customs. The US soybean price rose 5.70% this week [7][30]. b. Spot Analysis - **Soybean Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [9]. - **Palm Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 14, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years [12]. c. Other Data - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 1.308 million tons. On August 13, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 565,000 tons. As of August 14, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,735,500 tons [16][20]. - **Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at the average level compared to the past five years. The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [21][24].