1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oil and fat market is mainly driven by external crude oil. Attention should be paid to the progress of US biofuel policy and international crude oil price trends. The expected improvement of bilateral relations significantly boosts market risk appetite and US soybean export procurement expectations. The US biofuel policy may be finalized at the end of March. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes in April and accelerate its B50 biodiesel mandatory blending plan. The continuous Middle - East conflict supports oil prices and the demand outlook for biofuel raw materials, keeping the oil and fat sector at a high level, and a bull spread option can be considered. If the macro - situation cools down, with the seasonal increase in palm oil production in the producing areas, the increase in future imported soybean arrivals, and the possible suppression of demand due to weak economic growth and Middle - East situation uncertainties, oil and fat prices will回调 from high levels, and there is an opportunity for the soybean - palm oil price spread to widen [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Quotes Review**: Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil traders offer quotes: 6 - 9 months, third - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 100, first - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 300. East China's third - grade rapeseed oil in March: OI2605 + 520. East China's soybean oil basis quotes: first - grade soybean oil, spot: Y05 + 320; far - month price: y2605 + 250 (5 - 6 months); Y2609 + 240 (5 - 7 months); y2609 + 250 (6 - 9 months). Third - grade soybean oil: 05 + 270, degummed soybean oil in April: 05 + 100. A Guangdong oil factory's palm oil basis quotes are stable: imported 24 - degree P2605 + 30, national standard 24 - degree P2605 + 80, refined 24 - degree P2605 + 230, 18 - degree P2605 + 170 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Bull spread options can be considered. If the macro - situation cools down, there is an opportunity for the soybean - palm oil price spread to widen [8] 3.2行业要闻 - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: As of March 25, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports is about 8 million tons, compared with 6.8 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.5 million tons. The cumulative arrivals this month are 5.7 million tons. In March 2026, the imported soybean arrivals are 7.1 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons compared with the forecast of 5.2 million tons last month (a month - on - month change of 36.17%), and an increase of 1.9 million tons compared with 5.1 million tons in the same period last year (a year - on - year change of 37.61%) [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From March 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 9.74% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.28% month - on - month [10] 3.3数据概览 - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 are 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase compared with 1,022,673 tons from February 1 - 25. Exports to China are 90,400 tons, an increase of 38,400 tons compared with 52,000 tons in the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 are 1,389,549 tons, a 50.6% increase compared with 922,649 tons from February 1 - 25 [17] - **Australian Rapeseed Production**: Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach the second - highest in history. The March quarterly report of ABARES raised the rapeseed production forecast by 450,000 tons to 7.7 million tons [17]

Group 1: General Information - The report is about the oil and fat industry, dated March 25, 2026 [1][2] - The researchers are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: The previous settlement price was 9820, the opening price was 9680, the highest price was 9774, the lowest price was 9532, the closing price was 9644, down 176 or 1.79%, the trading volume was 512,050, and the open interest decreased by 21,561 [7] - P2609: The previous settlement price was 9780, the opening price was 9660, the highest price was 9740, the lowest price was 9508, the closing price was 9622, down 158 or 1.62%, the trading volume was 173,245, and the open interest decreased by 10,373 [7] - Y2605: The previous settlement price was 8678, the opening price was 8632, the highest price was 8680, the lowest price was 8544, the closing price was 8594, down 84 or 0.97%, the trading volume was 296,544, and the open interest decreased by 32,990 [7] - Y2609: The previous settlement price was 8592, the opening price was 8580, the highest price was 8606, the lowest price was 8474, the closing price was 8532, down 60 or 0.70%, the trading volume was 108,631, and the open interest increased by 945 [7] - OI2605: The previous settlement price was 9896, the opening price was 9840, the highest price was 9896, the lowest price was 9701, the closing price was 9813, down 83 or 0.84%, the trading volume was 218,082, and the open interest decreased by 14,079 [7] - OI2609: The previous settlement price was 9776, the opening price was 9685, the highest price was 9773, the lowest price was 9607, the closing price was 9705, down 71 or 0.73%, the trading volume was 36,940, and the open interest decreased by 692 [7] Price Quotes - Dongguan third - grade rapeseed oil trader quotes: Spot: OI2605 + 400 (Dongguan/Guangxi); March - April: OI2605 + 350 (Dongguan/Guangxi); May - July: OI2605 + 80 (Dongguan/Guangxi/Fujian); June - August: OI2609 + 120 (Dongguan/Guangxi/Fujian) [7] - East China soybean oil basis quotes: First - grade soybean oil: Spot: Y2605 + 270; April - May: Y2605 + 240; May - July: Y2605 + 150; June - September: Y2605 + 130; Third - grade soybean oil: Y2605 + 200; Degummed soybean oil: March - May: Y2605 + 100 [7] - A Guangdong oil factory's palm oil basis quotes: Imported 24 - degree: P2605 + 30; National standard 24 - degree: P2605 + 80; Refined 24 - degree: P2605 + 230; 18 - degree: P2605 + 170 [7] Market Analysis - Intraday, the oil and fat market was dragged down by the crude oil trend and declined. In the short term, the oil and fat market mainly depends on the external crude oil driving factors and some funds are changing contracts. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US biodiesel policy and the international crude oil price trend [8] - If the macro - situation cools down, with the seasonal increase in palm oil production in the producing areas and the increase in the future arrival volume of imported soybeans, as well as the weak economic growth and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation that may suppress demand, the oil and fat prices will回调 from high levels, and there is an opportunity for the soybean - palm oil price spread to widen [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from March 1 - 20 were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.1% increase from the 863,358 tons in the same period last month. Exports to China were 82,000 tons, a significant increase from 40,000 tons last month [9] - According to the Brazilian consulting firm Home农商 Company, as of March 20, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 65.79%, up from 57.43% a week ago, lower than 73.84% in the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average of 66.96% [9] - MPOC: Due to the continuous high oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict, palm oil prices are expected to remain above 4450 ringgit per ton in the short term. However, the agency warns that weak economic growth and price volatility caused by the uncertainty of the Middle East situation may temporarily delay imports in major markets and suppress the further rise of palm oil prices [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the price spreads of P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit [11][13][14][23][29][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Brazil's soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season is 68% as of March 19, 2026, 8 percentage points higher than the previous week but still behind last year's 80%. The harvest speeded up due to rainfall interruption in the Matopiba region and significant progress in previously lagging states [1] - The expected spring soybean planting area in the US this year is 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast of 85 million acres. The expected corn planting area is 94.4 million acres, higher than the February forecast of 94 million acres. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting intention report [1] - As of March 19, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume for the week was 1,101,730 tons, compared with 833,816 tons in the same period last year. The total US soybean export inspection volume so far in the 2025/26 season is 29,182,214 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%, reaching 68.1% of the annual export target [1] - Brazil's shipping recovery eases concerns about near - month arrivals. If soybean arrivals are normal and state reserve sales are implemented, the near - month crushing profit will narrow slightly, but the decline is limited due to high import costs [2] - In March, palm oil trade flow changed significantly due to energy market fluctuations and new policy pressures. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased supply - chain risks, disrupted regional trade, and led to longer shipping routes, higher freight uncertainties, and increased insurance costs. Refiners in the region are consuming inventory instead of purchasing new goods [2] - Indonesia's increase in export tax and the improvement of biodiesel economic benefits make exporters re - evaluate export volumes. The rise in diesel prices encourages more palm oil for domestic energy use. Market speculation about the B50 policy resurfaced, which may increase Indonesia's domestic crude palm oil demand by about 2 million tons and tighten export supply [2] - As of March 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in China is 2312900 tons, a decrease of 57000 tons (2.41%) from last week and a decrease of 62900 tons (2.65%) year - on - year [3] - Trump's social media message led to a decline in the crude oil and oil sectors. The short - term price movement of the oil sector is hard to predict due to the unresolved Iran issue. Whether crude oil prices can remain high is the most important factor for the oil trend [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Bean Meal - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of March 19, 2026, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress is 68%, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but behind last year's 80% [1] - **US Planting Forecast**: The expected US soybean planting area this spring is 86.1 million acres, and the expected corn planting area is 94.4 million acres, both higher than February forecasts [1] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of March 19, 2026, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume is 1,101,730 tons. The total export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season so far is 29,182,214 tons, down 27.0% year - on - year, reaching 68.1% of the annual target [1] - **Near - Month Situation**: Brazil's shipping recovery eases near - month arrival concerns. If arrivals are normal and state reserve sales occur, near - month crushing profit will narrow slightly with limited decline due to high import costs [2] Oils - **Palm Oil Trade**: In March, palm oil trade flow changed due to energy market and policy factors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased supply - chain risks. Indonesia's export tax increase and biodiesel economic benefits change export decisions. The B50 policy speculation may tighten palm oil export supply [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in China is 2312900 tons, down 2.41% from last week and 2.65% year - on - year [3] - **Price Trend**: Trump's social media message led to a decline in the oil sector. The short - term price movement is hard to predict, and crude oil price level is the key factor for the oil trend [3][4]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: March 24, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market review**: Dongguan third - grade rapeseed oil trader quotes, East China soybean oil basis quotes, and a Guangdong oil factory's palm oil basis quotes are provided [7] - **Core view**: The energy market is the key variable for oil and oilseed pricing. The ongoing Iran conflict has led to high - running crude oil prices, increasing biodiesel expectations and supporting oil prices. Brazil's biodiesel producers can support a 20% blending ratio. China has agreed to relax the zero - tolerance standard for weeds in Brazilian soybean cargoes. Domestic soybean oil is expected to continue de - stocking, and the basis will remain stable. Short - term oil market depends on external crude oil drivers and some funds changing positions. If the macro - situation cools, oil prices may decline [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week of March 18, the core agricultural area in Argentina had widespread rainfall, benefiting late - sown soybeans. 78% of soybean crops were rated normal to good, and 79% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions [9] Group 4: Data Overview - **Argentina**: As of the week of March 18, early - sown soybeans in the core agricultural area were close to harvest. The estimated yield per hectare in the northern core area was 3.59 tons, and 3.79 tons in the southern core area. About 74.7% of second - season soybeans were in the critical growth stage, with 67% rated "normal to excellent". The national soybean production forecast was maintained at 48.5 million tons, and the planting area was 17.6 million hectares, a 4.3% decrease from the previous year [11] - **Brazil**: As of March 20, the harvest progress of the 2025/26 soybean season was 65.79%, lower than last year's 73.84% and the five - year average of 66.96%. Brazilian biodiesel producers can support a 20% blending ratio, and the association called on the government to allow a higher blending ratio when needed [11] - **MPOC**: Due to the high oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict, palm oil prices are expected to remain above 4,450 ringgit per ton in the short term. However, economic slowdown and price fluctuations may suppress palm oil price increases [11]

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of Guoxin Guozheng Futures on March 24, 2026, covering multiple futures varieties [1] Index Futures - On March 23, the three major A - share indexes weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.49% to 3235.22 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 23, closing at 4418.00, a decrease of 149.02 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 23, the weighted index of coke oscillated stronger, closing at 1867.8, a rise of 117.3 compared to the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 23, closing at 1323.6 yuan, a rise of 122.3 compared to the previous day [3] - Coke: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing willingness of traders slightly improves [4] - Coking coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1461 vehicles. The resumption of work in coal mines is good, the weekly production level continues to rise slightly, the spot auction transactions within the week are good, and the transaction price has increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the inventory at the production end has decreased slightly [4] - Policy: According to the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, by 2030, China's comprehensive energy production capacity will reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal. Coal will play a long - term role in ensuring energy security and economic stability [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and the increase in spot quotes in the morning, the futures price oscillated higher, and then oscillated lower due to the sharp decline in the stock market. At night, it oscillated lower due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [5] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premixed powder were 830,000 tons and 592,000 tons respectively, an increase of 75,000 tons and 266,000 tons year - on - year. The total import volume was 1.422 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons or 31% year - on - year [7] Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, the Shanghai Rubber oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. At night, it oscillated and rose slightly due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [7] - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased 1.2% year - on - year to 14.03 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the import of truck and bus tires decreased 4.1% year - on - year and 3.4% month - on - month to 4.72 million [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on March 23, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1164.5 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.34%. As of the week of March 19, the US soybean export inspection was 1,101,730 tons, in line with market expectations. The export inspection volume to China was 664,967 tons, accounting for 60.36% of the total inspection volume. As of last Thursday, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 68%, behind 80% of the same period last year [7] - In the domestic market on March 23, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 3007 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.73%. With the relaxation of the inspection of weeds and pests on imported Brazilian soybeans in China, it is expected that many soybeans stranded at ports will complete customs clearance one after another. After the soybean inventory of oil mills is replenished, the soybean meal production will remain high, and the tight supply situation of soybean meal will be alleviated [7] Live Pigs - On March 21, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The slaughter plan of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month, the slaughter rhythm accelerated significantly, the market supply was sufficient, and the sales were active. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was loose. On the demand side, it is in the seasonal off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Although frozen product segmentation warehousing and some secondary fattening have formed a certain bottom - support, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand as a whole [7] Palm Oil - On March 23, benefiting from the rise of crude oil prices over the weekend, the palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated stronger. The main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9960, the lowest price was 9650, and the closing price was 9942, a rise of 2.31% compared to the previous trading day [8] - As of March 20, 2026 (the 12th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons or 4.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 419,900 tons or 108.14% compared to 388,300 tons of the same period last year [8] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 94,510, reached a high of 94,740, a low of 91,500, and closed at 92,100, with a settlement price of 92,870. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots. Macro - suppression: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar suppress commodities. The fundamentals are weak: High smelting operation rate, increased imports, and rising bonded - area inventory; the demand in the "Golden March" is lower than expected, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper is 93,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan per ton; the premium to CU2605 is 120 - 160 yuan per ton [8] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15,316 yuan per ton at night on March 23. The cotton inventory decreased by 16 lots compared to the previous trading day. Entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream textile enterprises purchase as they use [8] Iron Ore - On March 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 819 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the demand for molten iron from steel mills' resumption of production increased, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - On March 23, the main contract of asphalt 2606 oscillated and rose, with a rise of 4.27% and a closing price of 4661 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, the inventory increased slightly, the downstream demand has not started, the refinery's shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825 on March 23, with a low of 819, a high of 832, and a closing price of 822, with an increase of 702 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8][9] Steel - On March 23, rb2605 closed at 3154 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3330 yuan per ton. The military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on March 23 entered the 24th day, and the transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and high oil prices will last longer. On the one hand, the energy substitution effect is strengthened, the shipping cost rises, and the prices of black - series raw fuels are pushed up. On the other hand, the global inflation expectation heats up, the liquidity tightens, the risk - aversion sentiment spreads, and the global economic growth is impacted. In the short term, driven by high costs, steel prices may oscillate stronger [9] Alumina - On March 23, ao2605 closed at 3093 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the new production capacity is being put into operation at an accelerated pace. The 1.2 million - ton project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai will be put into trial production in April, and another new production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. Coupled with the high arrival volume of imported alumina from March to April (about 250,000 tons per month on average), the subsequent supply pressure is becoming increasingly prominent, which will effectively suppress the upward space of prices. On the demand side, the consumption improvement space is limited, and the spot trading atmosphere is average. Although the slight recovery of downstream consumption and the firmness of the spot provide a bottom support for alumina, the commissioning of new projects in many places and the increase in raw material arrivals have established the expectation of loose supply [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 23, al2605 closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. On the macro - level, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The US threatens to expand attacks on Iran's power generation facilities, and Iran responds firmly. The inflation risk caused by geopolitics intensifies, further leading to a collapse in demand and a shrinkage in investment. The market sentiment of trading recession remains. The precious metals and non - ferrous metal markets continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of Guinea's bauxite export policy. On the supply side of the fundamentals, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point. On the demand side, the receiving situation continues to improve. The absolute price has dropped to an ideal range, and downstream and terminal buyers increase their purchases at low prices, which continues to strengthen the support for the spot [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Oil and fats [1] - Report date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market quotes: Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil trader quotes: third - grade rapeseed oil 05+120 (5 - 6), first - grade rapeseed oil 05+860; East China soybean oil basis quotes: first - grade soybean oil spot Y05+270, fixed price 8870, far - month prices vary by period; Dongguan palm oil quotes are stable with a slight decline [7] - Market analysis: Night - session crude oil strengthened due to the Middle East situation, and domestic oils stopped falling. Palm oil prices are supported by high energy prices and favorable biodiesel processing profits. For soybean oil, quarantine issues may slow down arrivals from March to April, leading to continued inventory reduction and potential basis price increases. Rapeseed oil's near - term supply shows no significant increase, with difficult spot market pick - up. In the short term, oils will fluctuate at high levels, and prices may correct if the macro situation cools [8] Group 3: Industry News - Palm oil production forecasts: Malaysia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 19.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, with an estimated range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous forecast [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Crop production and export data: The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production forecast remains at 178 million tons, and the Argentine soybean production forecast remains at 47 million tons, with a neutral - to - downward adjustment tendency. In March 2026, Brazil's soybean exports are estimated to be 16.32 million tons, a 3.8% increase from March 2025 [19] - Market impact: The agricultural futures market has not fully felt the impact of the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, and the cost of agricultural production inputs has been affected by the fluctuations in oil and gas prices [19]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the outlooks are as follows: - Oils and fats: Oscillatory [7][8] - Protein meals: Oscillatory [9] - Corn: Oscillatory [10][11] - Hogs: Oscillatory and weakening [11] - Natural rubber: Oscillatory [12][14] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory and strengthening [15] - Cotton: Oscillatory and strengthening [16] - Sugar: Oscillatory [18] - Pulp: Oscillatory [20] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [20][22] - Logs: Oscillatory [23] Group 2: Core Views - The overall agricultural market is currently characterized by complex and diverse trends, with different commodities showing various price movements and supply - demand relationships. The market is significantly influenced by factors such as macroeconomics, geopolitics, and seasonal patterns. For example, the hog market is facing high supply and weak demand, while the oil and fat market is affected by geopolitical tensions and supply - demand dynamics in the international market. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Oils and fats continue to oscillate. Geopolitical factors in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, affecting the cost of vegetable oils. Different types of oils have their own supply - demand situations. For example, palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in the first half of March, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [8]. Protein Meals - **View**: Trading is清淡, and the two major protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) oscillate in a narrow range. International factors such as inflation concerns in the US, geopolitical tensions, and the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest affect the price of soybeans, which in turn impacts protein meals. Domestically, the import cost has slightly decreased, but the decline in the futures price is limited. The spot market has light trading volume [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory [9]. Corn - **View**: The market maintains a tight balance, and the futures price oscillates. The supply is affected by factors such as farmers' selling rhythm and the increase in wheat supply. The demand from downstream enterprises is mainly for replenishment, and the market is in a state of game between supply and demand [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short - term. In the medium - term, it has a bullish tendency based on the annual supply - demand balance [11]. Hogs - **View**: Supply remains high, and hog prices continue to decline. In the short - term, supply exceeds demand due to high inventory and low consumption. In the medium - term, the supply pressure will continue until August 2026. In the long - term, hog prices may gradually pick up in the third quarter of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and weakening. It is recommended that the industrial sector consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year and anti - arbitrage strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The macro - environment is weak, and rubber prices continue to decline. The market is affected by the macro - economic downturn, the expected high yield in the Yunnan production area, and the decline in tire orders to the Middle East [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price is relatively firm. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a reduction in the supply of butadiene, driving up the price of synthetic rubber. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall under the current geopolitical situation [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. The price will remain strong in the short - term if oil prices continue to rise [15]. Cotton - **View**: The macro - sentiment is bearish, and cotton prices continue to correct. The fundamentals are generally good, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but the upside is limited in the short - term [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a long - term buying strategy on dips [16]. Sugar - **View**: Short - term domestic and international sugar prices oscillate with oil prices. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, but oil price fluctuations may affect the sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil, thereby influencing sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The domestic price range can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [18]. Pulp - **View**: Pulp shows signs of stabilizing after continuous decline. The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and low downstream demand. However, the cost provides a certain support [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is expected to maintain an interval - oscillation strategy, with support at 4950 - 5050 yuan/ton and resistance at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton [20]. Offset Paper - **View**: It oscillates weakly. The market is generally stable, with some price increases. The paper mills have inventory pressure, and the demand from downstream printers is average. The price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [20][22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [22]. Logs - **View**: Geopolitical factors increase the volatility of logs. The price is mainly driven by cost factors, such as the increase in freight and exchange rate. In the short - term, the futures price oscillates strongly, but in the medium - term, it may face pressure due to increased supply [23]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. It is recommended to operate within the range of 780 - 830 yuan/cubic meter [23]. Group 4: Commodity Index Data - On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2569.19, with a change of - 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, with a change of - 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, with a change of + 0.39%. - The agricultural product index on March 19, 2026 was 968.39, with a daily change of - 0.19%, a 5 - day change of - 1.96%, a one - month change of + 4.04%, and a year - to - date change of + 3.79% [185][187].

Report Information - Report Date: March 19, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoint - The upward momentum of the oil and fat sector has temporarily paused, with all three major oils declining during the day, led by palm oil. Trump's postponement of his visit to China due to the Iran war has dampened market sentiment. However, geopolitical risks have restricted the decline of palm oil. Palm oil exports are strong, and Indonesia's consideration of a new tax on commodities may lead to supply tightening. Although palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted downward under pressure, it still has the opportunity to strengthen in the medium to long term. The quarantine incident may delay the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China, and domestic soybean oil inventories are continuously decreasing, with the basis quote likely to rise. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US biodiesel policy and the trend of international crude oil prices [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil trader quotes: Third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 120 (5 - 6), and first - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 860. East China's soybean oil basis quotes: First - grade soybean oil, spot price is Y05 + 270, fixed price is 8870; far - month prices are Y2605 + 240 for April - May, Y2605 + 150 for May - July, Y2605 + 130 for June - September; third - grade soybean oil is 05 + 200; degummed soybean oil is 05 + 100 for March - May. Dongguan's palm oil trader quotes are stable with a slight decline: Guangzhou Yihai's 18 - degree palm oil is 05 + 150; Dongguan's 24 - degree palm oil from various factories is 05 - 40, national standard 24 - degree is 05 + 20, 52 - degree is 05 - 350, and 33 - degree is 05 + 20 [7] - **Market Analysis**: The oil and fat sector has seen a temporary halt in its upward trend, with palm oil leading the decline. Geopolitical risks and export data, as well as potential supply - tightening policies, affect the market. The quarantine incident in Brazil may impact soybean oil inventories and basis quotes [8] 2. Industry News - **Palm Oil Exports**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15, 2026, were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase compared to 393,853 tons in the same period in February. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the previous month [9] - **Indian Oil Imports**: In February, India's palm oil imports increased by about 11% to 847,689 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 7% to 299,046 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by about 45% to 145,308 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - **Price and Basis Charts**: There are charts showing the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, and the price spreads of palm oil futures contracts (P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1), and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit and the Chinese yuan [11][15][19][25][29][33]