Report Overview - Report Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The three major oils have collectively corrected, mainly dragged down by the decline in the external crude oil market. Due to the bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report, the oversupply of US soybeans, the increase in Brazilian soybean production, and sufficient global soybean supply, combined with soybean auctions, the Y2605 contract is under significant pressure near the integer mark of 8000 and recent highs. The main contract Y2605 is expected to trade in the range of 7850 - 8150 in the first quarter. [8] - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to rising Malaysian palm oil inventories and the delay in Indonesia's shift from B40 to B50 in 2026. Attention should be paid to whether Indian demand can recover. If export improvement fails to meet market expectations, a second bottoming is expected. [8] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney visited China on January 14, and the market expects the China - Canada trade relationship to ease. China may gradually cancel the 100% punitive tariff on Canadian canola oil. This week, canola oil prices have continued to bottom out under the guidance of policy expectations. Attention should be paid to whether there are official signals of tariff adjustment. [8] - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on canola oil. Oils are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with pressure on the upside and support on the downside. Current prices face correction pressure. [8] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - East China third - grade canola oil: 05 + 800 in February; 05 + 650 from February to May; 05 + 600 from April to May. Dongguan canola oil quote: 05 + 1200 for third - grade canola oil from January to February. [7] - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: For first - grade soybean oil, spot is Y05 + 520; 05 + 500 from January to March; 05 + 480 from February to March; 05 + 380 from February to May; 05 + 360 from March to May; 05 + 300 from April to May; 05 + 240 from May to July; 05 + 210 from June to September; 05 + 200 from July to September; third - grade soybean oil is 05 + 450; degummed soybean oil is 05 + 320. [7] - Dongguan traders' palm oil quotes are stable: 05 - 20 for 24 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories; 05 + 40 for Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil; 05 - 200 for 52 - degree palm oil from Dongguan factories. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: - For futures trading, pay attention to the price range of Y2605 (7850 - 8150 in Q1). Monitor the recovery of Indian palm oil demand and official signals of canola oil tariff adjustment. [8] - For arbitrage, adopt the strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on canola oil. [8] 3.2 Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 727,440 tons, a 18.6% increase compared to 613,172 tons from December 1 - 15. [9] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 3.73 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 2.4 million tons. If the estimate comes true, it will be a 233% increase compared to 1.12 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period. ANEC's head said on January 7 that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade canola oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and canola oil, and price spreads such as P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, and exchange rates like the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [13][16][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to start a high - level correction due to factors such as the approaching final contract - changing period and profit - taking after recent price increases, but the correction amplitude is expected to be limited [5][6][9][11] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8526 with a rise of 10; palm oil's 2601 closing price was 9640 with a rise of 56; and rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price was 9850 with a rise of 24. The basis of each variety in different regions had different changes [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 320 with a fall of 62; for palm oil, it was 308 with a rise of 8; and for rapeseed oil, it was 151 with a rise of 5 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 1114 with a fall of 46; the OI - Y spread was 1324; the OI - P spread was 210 with a fall of 32; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70 with a fall of 0.002 [3] - **Import Profits**: The盘面 profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 119, and the盘面 profit of Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil was - 533 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (2025, Week 33)**: The soybean oil inventory was 60.0 tons, the palm oil inventory was 61.7 tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 66.0 tons. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventories had different changes [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) stated that supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth, Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to remain above 4300 ringgit. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [5] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of August 15, 2025 (Week 33), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 61.73 tons, a 2.92% increase from last week. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. Short - term, the palm oil price may correct, and holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 233.9 tons, and the operating rate was 65.75%. As of August 15, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 114.27 tons, a 0.44% increase from last week. The basis was stable. Short - term, the oil price may correct, and soybean oil will be more resistant to the decline. The YP01 may rebound in the short term [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The spot market was weak, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. Short - term, policy disturbances are frequent, and the price will maintain a wide - range shock [9] Part 3: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term, the oil price is expected to correct at a high level, but the correction amplitude is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, and those without positions can consider short - selling or waiting patiently for the correction and then going long at a low price [11] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The YP01 may rebound in the short term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding; the P15 can be considered to be widened after the correction [11] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [12] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oil products [15][18]