油脂供应与库存
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油脂数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:53
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest, soybean oil oscillates between cost support and inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8600, and 8540 respectively, with a decrease of 10 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of palm oil futures (South China) was 5000, 4000, and 3000 in these regions [1]. - **First - grade soybean oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8390, and 8490 respectively, with an increase of 10 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9780, 9830, and 10100 respectively, with an increase of 30 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of rapeseed oil futures (East China) was 3000 [1][2]. Futures Data - **Price difference between soybean and palm oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was - 544, a decrease of 92 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Price difference between rapeseed and soybean oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was 1376, a decrease of 107 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Warehouse receipts**: On November 6, 2025, the palm oil warehouse receipts were 650 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 26460 (a decrease of 984), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5112 (a decrease of 1726) compared to November 5 [1]. Industry News - **Palm oil supply**: Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to reach 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the production is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. As of October 29, China's palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06% [2]. - **Soybean news**: Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement. StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre. Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil import**: The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.3%, due to the concentrated arrival of new - season rapeseed oil from Russia [2].