| | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/08/21 | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | 农产品中心 | | 176 期货从业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号。 | | 国分 陈凡生 | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/19 | 一口价变动 | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 天津 | 9660 | 9860 | -200 | 5000 | | | | | | 张家港 | 9540 | 9740 | -200 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 | 9510 | 9710 B | -200 | 3000 2000 | | | | | | 级豆油 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/19 | 一口价变动 | 1000 | | | | | | 大 ...

| | | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ITG国贸期货 | | | | | | 国贸期货出品 | | | 2025/08/19 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | | 农产品中心 | | | 期货从业证号 | 176 | 投资咨询证号 | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号。 | | | | | 国分 陈凡生 | | | F03117830 | | Z0022681 | | | 2025/08/15 | | 24度棕櫚油 | 2025/08/18 | | 一口价变动 | | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 9710 | | 一大津 | | 9440 | 270 | 5000 | | | | | | | 9640 | | 张家港 | | 9370 | 270 | 4000 | | | | | | | 9300 | | 黄浦 | 9570 | | 270 | 3000 2000 | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on oils and fats as the bullish drivers are temporarily hard to disprove [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the spot and futures prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as relevant market data and news, suggesting a long - position in the oils and fats market due to non - falsifiable bullish drivers [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Different Data Spot Price - On August 13, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9520, 9450, and 9380 respectively, with a daily increase of 120 [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8720, 8840, and 8820 respectively, with a daily increase of 170 [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10260, 10310, and 10520 respectively, with a daily increase of 500 [1] Futures Data - On August 13, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 848, up 38 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1488, up 162 [1] - The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 1420, unchanged; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 22170, an increase of 216; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487, unchanged [1] Market News - The Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that imported Canadian rapeseed was dumped. From August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies [2] - Affected by the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic long - term rapeseed procurement progress is slow. The imported rapeseed arrival volume in August is expected to be about 200,000 tons, and the average monthly arrival volume from September to October is about 130,000 tons [2] - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: Palm oil production increased 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - From August 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month [2] - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased 23.3% and 23.7% respectively compared with the same period last month according to ITS and AmSpec [2] - The USDA report adjusted the new - crop soybean yield per acre from 52.5 bushels/acre to a record high of 53.6 bushels/acre but unexpectedly reduced the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a 43 million - bushel reduction in production to 4.292 billion bushels [2] - The US soybean and corn good - to - excellent rates as of August 10 were 68% and 72% respectively, in line with market expectations [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests going long on the palm oil 09 contract and the soybean oil 09 contract [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Spot Price - On August 7, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin was 9120 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous day; in Zhangjiagang it was 9050 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Huangpu it was 9000 yuan, up 50 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8550 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Zhangjiagang it was 8630 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Huangpu it was 8670 yuan, up 50 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang was 9630 yuan, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan it was 9680 yuan, down 70 yuan; in Chengdu it was 9890 yuan, down 70 yuan [1] Futures Data - On August 7, 2025, the price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 544, up 20 from the previous day; the price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1090, down 66 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 570, unchanged; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 15370, an increase of 3830; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487, unchanged [1] Import Data of India - In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons; soybean oil imports soared by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% month - on - month to 201,000 tons; total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 1.53 million tons [2] Malaysian Data - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: production increased by 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased by 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased by 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - From July 1 - 31, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit increased by 7.19% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02% month - on - month, and production increased by 7.07% month - on - month [2] - According to ITS, from July 1 - 31, exports decreased by 6.7% compared to the previous month; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 9.6% compared to the previous month [2] Other Data - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August to $910.91 per metric ton, up from $877.89 in July, and the export tax will increase from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton [2] - From July 27 to August 2, Brazil's soybean exports were 2.5504 million tons, up from 2.2902 million tons the previous week [2] - In the next two weeks, the overall precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is good, which is beneficial to the soybean yield per unit [2] - As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the flowering rate was 76% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests caution as the oils and fats market may experience a correction after the cooling of macro - sentiment, and recommends a wait - and - see approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price Information - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 9070, down 50 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 9020, down 50; and in Huangpu it was 8920, down 50 [1]. - **Grade I Soybean Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 8270, up 20 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 8370, up 20; and in Huangpu it was 8320, up 20 [1]. - **Grade IV Rapeseed Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Zhangjiagang was 9590, up 50 from July 28; in Wuhan it was 9610, up 50; and in Chengdu it was 9820, up 50 [1]. Futures Data - **Contract Spreads**: On July 29, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 744, up 82 from July 28; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1266, down 20 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On July 29, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 570, unchanged; soybean oil warehouse receipts were 21113, down 382; and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487, unchanged [1]. Palm Oil Supply and Demand Information - **Indonesia**: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. Exports reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase. May's crude palm oil production was 4.17 million tons, lower than April but a 7.2% increase from last year [2]. - **Malaysia**: From July 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased 7.03% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased 6.19% month - on - month. Export data from different institutions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous month [2]. - **India**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, the highest in 11 months [2]. Other Information - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [2]. - **Australian Rapeseed**: Australian rapeseed is expected to enter the domestic market, which will alleviate the shortage of rapeseed imports caused by the tense China - Canada relationship [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market is concerned about the demand for palm oil and the impact of international crude oil on palm oil. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,336 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is -24 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2] - The futures trading volume of the active palm oil contract is 428,231 lots, a decrease of 3,330 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 470 lots [2] - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of palm oil are 41,923 lots, a decrease of 8,481 lots; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 3,959 Malaysian ringgit/ton, down 33 ringgit/ton [2] - The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it is 8,530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it is 8,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,005 per ton, unchanged; the CNF price is $1,043 per ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Malaysia's palm oil production in the month is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the month is 4.9 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; exports are 2.88 million tons, unchanged; the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2] - The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $49.48 per ton, an increase of $7.35 [2] - SGS's daily palm oil export volume is 847,695 tons, an increase of 185,115 tons; ITS's daily export volume data is not clearly presented in a comparable way [2] - The weekly palm oil inventory is 759,881 tons, an increase of 246,668 tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil import profit is -499.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.08 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2] - The national port inventory of soybean oil is 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil is 752,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons [2] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 8,929.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.08 yuan/ton [2] - The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian is 9,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysia's annual food use of palm oil is 870,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons; industrial use is 3.1 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Indonesia's annual food use of palm oil is 7.4 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; industrial use is 13.75 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons [2] - China's annual food use of palm oil is 3.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons; industrial use is 2.3 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil is 17.85%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.89%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of palm oil is 19.08%, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.69%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 0.23% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.08% month - on - month [2] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to the previous month [2] - On Monday, edible oil importers cancelled 6,500 tons of crude palm oil import orders originally scheduled to arrive at Indian ports from July to September [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - After the stagnation or decline of crude oil, the oils and fats are expected to experience a compensatory decline due to the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to take short positions with a light hand or buy put options [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to the previous day at 8640, 8570, and 8490 respectively [1] - **First - grade soybean oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu decreased by 20 compared to the previous day, reaching 8140, 8240, and 8190 respectively [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 100 compared to the previous day, reaching 9680, 9700, and 9880 respectively [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Soybean - palm oil main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was - 360, an increase of 16 compared to the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - soybean main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was 1492, a decrease of 130 compared to the previous day [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 0 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 18882 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 100 [1] 3.3 Palm Oil Information - **Malaysian production**: According to MPOA, from June 1 - 20, production decreased by 4.55% compared to the same period last month; according to SPPOMA, from June 1 - 20, production increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month, from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4%, from June 1 - 10, it decreased by 17%, and from June 1 - 5, it increased by 10% [2] - **Malaysian exports**: According to ITS, from June 1 - 25, exports increased by 7% compared to the previous period; from June 1 - 20, exports increased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from June 1 - 15, it increased by 26.3%; from June 1 - 10, it increased by 26.3% [2] - **Weather**: Malaysian precipitation is expected to be moderately low, which is beneficial for current production [2] 3.4 Soybean Information - **Argentine soybean harvest**: As of June 18, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 soybean season in Argentina was 96.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than a week ago but still 2 percentage points behind last year. Early - sown soybeans were 98.4% harvested with an average yield of 3.16 tons per hectare, and late - sown soybeans were 91% harvested with an average yield of 2.5 tons per hectare [2] - **US soybean situation**: According to USDA, as of the week ending June 22, the sowing progress of US soybeans reached 96%, higher than the previous week's 93% but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 97% and the five - year average of 97%. The emergence rate was 90%, higher than the previous week's 84% and in line with the historical average. The first - reported flowering rate this week was 8%, higher than last year's and the historical average of 7%. The good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as last week and lower than the analysts' expectation of 67% [2] - **US weather**: Precipitation in the US is expected to be moderately high in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the influence of US biodiesel news, soybean oil and palm oil are considered bullish in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is to be put under temporary observation due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price Data - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8870, 8820, and 8800 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 80, and 0 compared to June 18 [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8400, and 8360 respectively, with price changes of 70, 50, and 70 compared to June 18 [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 9920, and 10100 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and 20 compared to June 18 [1] 2. Futures Data - **Spread between Main Contracts**: On June 19, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 386, up 48 from June 18; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1539, down 80 from June 18 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, 2025, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 540, 17552, and 100 respectively, with no change compared to June 18 [1] 3. Policy and Trade Data - **US Biodiesel Policy**: EPA's expected biomass diesel BBD blending obligations for 2026 - 2027 are 56.1 and 58.6 billion gallons respectively, exceeding the previous market expectation of 46.5 - 52.5 billion gallons [1] - **Indian Imports**: In May, India's sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports were 183555 tons, 398585 tons, and 592888 tons respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.9%, 10.42%, and 84.44%; the total vegetable oil imports were 1187068 tons, a 33.15% month - on - month increase [1] 4. Production and Inventory Data - **MPOB May Data**: Palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 67900 tons, an 18.32% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; consumption was 327600 tons, a 3.36% month - on - month decrease; and the ending inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase [1] - **June High - frequency Data**: From June 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 26.3% (ITS data) or 17.77% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month [1] - **Argentine Soybean Production**: As of June 11, the 24/25 soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, 2.8 percentage points behind the same period last year [2] - **US Soybean Production**: As of June 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [2] 5. Other Factors - **Weather**: Future two - week precipitation for US soybeans is moderately high, and Malaysia's precipitation is expected to be neutral [1][2] - **Trade Relations**: There is an expectation of easing China - Canada trade relations [2] - **Domestic Supply**: In the short - term, the low rapeseed inventory makes the supply of rapeseed oil tight, but the supply may be supplemented in the far - month due to the expected easing of trade relations [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Short - term international crude oil prices are volatile, and dry weather in the US and Europe may bring bullish speculation. Short - term oil and fat prices are expected to fluctuate upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Content Spot Price - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9230, 9030, and 8980 respectively, down 100 from April 28 [1]. - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged from April 28 at 8220, 8370, and 8270 respectively [1]. - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On April 29, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9370, 9400, and 9530 respectively, down 30 from April 28 [1]. Futures Data - **Soybean - Palm Oil Main Contract Spread**: On April 29, 2025, it was - 340, up 20 from April 28 [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Main Contract Spread**: On April 29, 2025, it was 1522, up 3 from April 28 [1]. - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipts**: There were no changes on April 29, 2025, remaining at 0 [1]. - **Soybean Oil Warehouse Receipts**: On April 29, 2025, there were 4005, an increase of 970 from April 28 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Warehouse Receipts**: There were no changes on April 29, 2025, remaining at 1357 [1]. High - frequency Data in April - **Production**: From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 9.11% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area up 7.69% and oil extraction rate up 0.27% [2]. - **Exports**: According to AmSpec, exports from April 1 - 25, 2025 reached 92.39 tons, up 14.75% month - on - month; ITS reported 95.10 tons, up 13.8%; SGS reported 70.32 tons, up 3.6% [2]. Key Information - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Progress**: As of April 19, 2025, the harvest progress of Brazil's 24/25 soybean was 92.5%, compared to 88.3% the previous week and 83.2% the same period last year [2]. - **US Weather and Sowing**: In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - producing areas will be high, which may delay new - crop sowing. As of April 20, 2025, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%, higher than the historical average of 5% [2]. - **Trade Relations**: The evolution of China - Canada trade relations is still uncertain, and Canadian rapeseed is a key variable [2]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic available inventory is limited, and subsequent rapeseed imports may tighten, and imported rapeseed oil cannot fill the gap caused by the tight rapeseed supply [2].