1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a "Bullish" rating on the industry [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Italian government has raised the mandatory requirements for renewable fuels and lifted the ban on using palm fatty acid distillates as raw materials, which may affect the palm oil market [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 25 increased compared to the same period in December, with a 10% growth according to ITS data, and Indonesia's palm oil exports in December increased by 52% month - on - month, indicating positive trends in the palm oil export market [2] - The preliminary results of China - Canada talks suggest that China will adjust anti - dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds according to relevant laws and regulations, which may impact the canola oil market [2] - Indian buyers are canceling Brazilian and Argentine soybean oil orders, and the "oil substitute war" is taking place in the Indian market due to the doubling of soybean oil's premium over palm oil [2] - The US 45Z clause is beneficial to the demand for US soybean oil and Canadian canola oil, and indirectly benefits the domestic oil market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - 24 - degree palm oil: In Tianjin, the price on January 26, 2026, was 9110, up 100 from January 23; in Zhangjiagang, it was 9030, up 100; in Huangpu, it was 9030, up 100 [1] - First - grade soybean oil: In Tianjin, the price on January 26, 2026, was 8470, up 100 from January 23; in Zhangjiagang, it was 8720, up 100; in Huangpu, it was 8770, up 100 [1] - Fourth - grade canola oil: In Zhangjiagang, the price on January 26, 2026, was 9950, up 200 from January 23; in Wuhan, it was 10000, up 200; in Chengdu, it was 10200, up 200 [1] 3.2 Futures Data - The price difference between the main soybean and palm oil contracts was - 866 on January 26, 2026, down 50 from January 23; the price difference between the main canola and soybean oil contracts was 1119, up 222 [1] - Palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 660 to 0; soybean oil warehouse receipts remained at 26525; canola oil warehouse receipts decreased by 500 to 625 [1] 3.3 Important Information - Italian biofuel regulations and palm oil export data from Malaysia and Indonesia may impact the palm oil market [2] - China - Canada talks on canola seeds, the canola oil trading results of China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation, and the "oil substitute war" in the Indian market affect the canola oil and soybean oil markets [2] - The US 45Z clause has a positive impact on the domestic oil market [2]

成文日期：20260122 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:棕榈? 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棕榈油期货日报 1 期货市场 棕榈油期货主力合约 P2605 收盘价 8,944 元/吨,较前一交易日 上涨 1.59%；开盘价 8,850 元/吨,最高价 8,964元/吨,最低价 8,850 元/吨，成交量 502,993 手，持仓量 467,244 手，成交额 448.37 亿元。 数据来源：wh6，国金期货 1: 棕榈油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 前。 出口数据显著改善：1 月 1 日至 20 日，马来西亚棕榈油出口量 环比增长 8.64%–11.4%,出口回升反映印度、中国等主要进口国节 前备货需求增强、库存去化预期提升。 国内库存高位但边际缓和：截至 2026 年 1 月 21 日，全国棕榈 油商业库存为 77.60 万吨，较前一周微增 0.6 万吨，同比仍高出 31 万吨,但库存增速放缓,叠加进口成本倒挂收窄 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Malay high-frequency data has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and then continue to decline, awaiting the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders taking delivery and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has risen. Short-term observation is recommended, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree palm oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8650, 8590, and 8490 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to December 26, 2025. The palm oil main contract spot basis in South China for Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu was 5000, 4000, and 3000 (or 2000) respectively [1] - First-grade soybean oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8250, 8390, and 8400 respectively, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade rapeseed oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9880, 9930, and 10130 respectively, with an increase of 100 compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil main contract spot basis in North China for Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu was 2000, 1500, and 1000 respectively [1] Futures Data - The price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was -694 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 38 compared to December 26, 2025. The price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1222 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 12 compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 260 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil warehouse receipts were 28264 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3456 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] Industry News - On December 19, the Indonesian energy minister said that the country had launched a road test for B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy for B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - MPOC predicts that the crude palm oil price will fluctuate between 3800 and 4100 ringgit per ton in January next year, supported by seasonal low production and increased demand before the Lunar New Year and Ramadan [2] - According to MPOA, Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 20 increased by 2.4% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture announced that a private exporter reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - According to the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October, reaching 632,341 tons. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 370,661 tons. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% compared to the previous month, reaching 142,953 tons, the lowest in two years. India also imported 5,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE. The decrease in soybean and sunflower oil imports led to a 13.3% decrease in India's total edible oil imports in November compared to the previous month, reaching a seven - month low of 1.15 million tons. In November, India imported a record - high 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China due to discounts offered by Chinese crushers due to oversupply [2]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic palm oil prices have increased by 2.44% week-on-week in early December, driven by concerns over production cuts and shifting demand from India, with expectations of continued strong performance in palm oil prices as production cut forecasts materialize [1][7]. Group 1: Production Insights - Concerns over production cuts have been heightened due to weather disturbances affecting palm oil output, leading to price increases [1][7]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported a 4.38% month-on-month decline in crude palm oil production for November, exceeding previous estimates of a 2.9% drop, which supports price increases despite overall high production levels [3]. - November palm oil exports from Malaysia saw a significant decrease of approximately 15%, suggesting potential inventory accumulation despite production declines [3]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The price differential has led to increased demand for palm oil from India, with expected imports rising by 4.6% month-on-month to 630,000 tons in November [5]. - Indian refiners have canceled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil purchases scheduled for December to January due to rising global soybean oil prices, opting for more competitively priced palm oil instead [5]. - Currently, palm oil prices in India are over $100 per ton lower than soybean oil, enhancing the attractiveness of palm oil imports [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - As weather-related factors diminish, market focus is shifting back to the fundamentals of palm oil, with close attention on high-frequency production and sales data from major producing countries and the upcoming MPOB report [7]. - If production cuts are confirmed to be more significant than anticipated, this could further support price increases [7]. - The domestic market is experiencing a subdued trading atmosphere, with some regions facing pressure to expedite transactions, which may limit upward price movement [7]. - Overall, the likelihood of a price rebound in December is high, with expectations for 24-degree palm oil prices to range between 8,660 and 9,000 yuan per ton [7].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.19% to 8632.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Malaysia's palm oil inventory surged to its highest level in over six years due to a decline in exports in November, with a 10% increase from the previous month to 2.71 million tons, marking a 47% rise compared to the same period last year [2] - On December 3, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports reached 300 tons, a 200% increase compared to the previous trading day [3] - The CNF price for 24-degree palm oil for December and January shipments was reported at 1049 to 1051 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 20 to 27 USD/ton, which translates to a total cost of 8860 to 8870 yuan/ton upon arrival in South China, up by 160 to 210 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Group 2: Institutional Insights - CICC Futures noted that external factors stimulating the oil market are receding, shifting market focus to the MPOB monthly report. High inventory levels of domestic edible oils limit the upward momentum for soybean and rapeseed oils, with palm oil futures expected to face downward pressure [4] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures highlighted that the weak ADP employment data in the U.S. for November and the potential for a rate cut in December are contributing to a weaker dollar index, while oil prices remain low. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to reach 2.66 million tons in November, up from 2.46 million tons the previous month, indicating ample supply. Weather conditions in Southeast Asia may impact supply, leading to a forecasted reduction in production, which could provide support for prices. Short-term palm oil is expected to trade within a range [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Southeast Asian floods have limited impact on palm oil, with potential negative expectation gaps [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - On December 1, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to November 28, 2025, at 8710, 8670, and 8570 respectively [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu increased by 50 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 8470, 8610, and 8620 respectively [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 30 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 10080, 10130, and 10330 respectively [1] Futures Data - On December 1, 2025, the spread between the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 364, an increase of 18 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The spread between the main contracts of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1482, a decrease of 31 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 352; the soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 5469 to 5469; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 110 to 3855 [1] Important Information - Indonesia - Indonesia's GAPKI believes that floods in Sumatra have not had a significant impact on palm oil production [1] - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported a total of 19.49 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 7.83% increase compared to the same period last year. In October, 1.91 million tons of palm oil were exported, up from 1.38 million tons in September [1] Important Information - Malaysia - According to SPPOMA, the average yield per unit of palm oil in Malaysia in November decreased by 0.2% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 19.7% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 12.8% [1] - According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 10% [1] Other Information - In September, the U.S. usage of soybean oil for biofuel production rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the overall growth of Brazilian soybeans indicates that the yield potential in most regions will be lower than in the 2024/25 season. The current sowing progress is 86.97%, compared to 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [2] - As of the week ending October 16, the net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.108 million tons, in line with expectations, up from 0.785 million tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, down from 0.1 million tons the previous week. The export shipments of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.73 million tons, up from 0.693 million tons the previous week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Malay palm oil has increasing production and decreasing exports, with significant pressure in the near term, and should be treated bearishly; rapeseed oil is expected to change the supply shortage situation due to the supply expectations of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and there may be a catch - up decline compared to the trend of last year [2] 3. Summary by Related Categories Spot Price - On November 26, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8480, 8360, and 8290 respectively, with a decrease of 80 compared to November 25 [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8460, and 8470 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 25 [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10110, 10160, and 10360 respectively, with decreases of 80, 80, and 110 compared to November 25 [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the spread between the main soybean and palm oil contracts was - 290, a change of - 74; the spread between the main rapeseed and soybean oil contracts was 1669, a change of - 5 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 0, with no change; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24625, a decrease of 2596; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3968, a decrease of 3 [1] Production and Export - According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 20, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.32% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 20, 1 - 15, and 1 - 10, the exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 20.5%, 15.5%, and 12.8% respectively compared to the same period last month; according to AmSpec, the corresponding decreases were 14%, 10%, and 10% [1] Inventory - As of November 14, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 65.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a high level in recent years [1] - As of November 14, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 114.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - The expected rapeseed oil import volume in November is 22.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.3%, due to the concentrated arrival of new - season rapeseed oil from Russia [2] US Soybean Forecast - The 2025/26 US soybean production is forecasted to be 4.266 billion bushels, with a yield per unit area of 53.1 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 0.304 billion bushels; the export is forecasted to be 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September forecast [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Malay palm oil has increasing production and decreasing exports, facing significant short - term pressure, and should be treated bearishly [2] - Rapeseed oil is expected to change the supply shortage situation due to the supply expectations of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and there may be a catch - up decline compared to last year's trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil (2025/11/21)**: Tianjin price is 8,660 (down 200 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,540 (down 200), Huangpu is 8,470 (down 200) [1] - **First - grade soybean oil (2025/11/21)**: Tianjin price is 8,330 (down 100 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,470 (down 100), Huangpu is 8,520 (down 100) [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil (2025/11/21)**: Zhangjiagang price is 10,170 (up 100 from 2025/11/20), Wuhan is 10,220 (up 100), Chengdu is 10,450 (up 100) [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Bean - palm main contract spread (2025/11/21)**: - 360, up 62 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Rapeseed - bean main contract spread (2025/11/21)**: 1,626, up 71 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 50, down 450 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 24,625, down 2 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 4,033, down 98 from 2025/11/20 [1] 3.3 Production and Export - **Malaysian palm oil production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased by 10.32% compared to the same period last month [1] - **Malaysian palm oil export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 12.8%. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 10% [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic palm oil**: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 65.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [1] - **Domestic soybean oil**: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 114.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed oil import**: The import volume in November is expected to be 22.6 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2] 3.5 US Soybean Forecast - The 2025/26 US soybean production forecast is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit area is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 0.304 billion bushels [1] - The 2025/26 US soybean export forecast is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly affected by the enhanced export competitiveness of South American soybeans and the slowdown of international procurement rhythm [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Malay high-frequency production data shows an increase in production in the first half of November, creating a negative expectation gap, and palm oil is expected to run weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8640, and 8570 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8450, 8590, and 8640 respectively compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10240, 10290, and 10520 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was -398, a decrease of 10 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was 1598, a decrease of 69 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 17, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 730 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24777 (a decrease of 216), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5323 (unchanged) compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Production, Export, and Inventory - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit increased by 0.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production increased by 4.09% compared to the same period last month; the production in the first 10 days decreased by 4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 12.8% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 653,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [2] - **US Soybean Production and Export**: In the 2025/26 season, the predicted production of US soybeans is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 304 million bushels. The predicted export is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September prediction [2] - **Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed Oil Import**: The predicted import volume of rapeseed oil in November 2025 is 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Last week, the average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil ranged between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. Despite the import cost rising and then falling during the week, the price linkage of competing oils like soybean oil and concerns about rapeseed oil supply provided bottom - line support for the sector, preventing a unilateral decline [1]. - Globally, the abundant supply is the core negative factor. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach a historic high, exceeding 20 million tons for the first time, and Indonesia's production from January to September increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are maintained in the range of 1.2 - 1.25 million tons. Although the import volume is increasing, downstream提货 is stable, and the short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - The demand shows "structural improvement". The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is continuously repairing, and the high price of rapeseed oil due to supply shortage concerns boosts the sentiment of the entire oil sector, providing bottom - line support for palm oil. However, negative factors are also prominent, such as India's imports dropping to a five - year low and the weakening of crude oil prices suppressing the demand for palm oil in the biodiesel field, with no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - In the short term, palm oil futures will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil last week was in the range of 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The price linkage of competing oils and concerns about rapeseed oil supply supported the market, preventing a one - sided decline [1]. - Globally, supply is abundant. Malaysia's production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and Indonesia's January - September production increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are stable, and short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - Demand has "structural improvement" but also faces negative factors. The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is repairing, and rapeseed oil prices boost the sector. However, India's low imports and weak crude oil prices suppress demand, and there is no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - Short - term palm oil futures will fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is advised [1]. Factors to Watch - November palm oil production and export data in Malaysia, the repair of the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and India's import policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - date Quotation and Import Profit Calculation - For the December 24 - degree palm oil ship - date in South China, the CNF is 1,030, the forward exchange rate is 7.0807, the import cost is 8,745 yuan/ton, the disk price is 8,364 yuan/ton, and the profit against the disk is - 111 yuan/ton [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The disk price is the price of the main palm oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange from 11:00 - 11:30. The import cost does not include processing fees and is the gross profit against the disk. The profit against the disk = disk price - import cost. The forward exchange rate is the real - time exchange rate of foreign exchange futures on the Singapore Exchange. The import cost = import CIF price * exchange rate * tariff * VAT + port charges [4]