Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Malay high-frequency data has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and then continue to decline, awaiting the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders taking delivery and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has risen. Short-term observation is recommended, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree palm oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8650, 8590, and 8490 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to December 26, 2025. The palm oil main contract spot basis in South China for Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu was 5000, 4000, and 3000 (or 2000) respectively [1] - First-grade soybean oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8250, 8390, and 8400 respectively, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade rapeseed oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9880, 9930, and 10130 respectively, with an increase of 100 compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil main contract spot basis in North China for Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu was 2000, 1500, and 1000 respectively [1] Futures Data - The price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was -694 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 38 compared to December 26, 2025. The price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1222 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 12 compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 260 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil warehouse receipts were 28264 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3456 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] Industry News - On December 19, the Indonesian energy minister said that the country had launched a road test for B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy for B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - MPOC predicts that the crude palm oil price will fluctuate between 3800 and 4100 ringgit per ton in January next year, supported by seasonal low production and increased demand before the Lunar New Year and Ramadan [2] - According to MPOA, Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 20 increased by 2.4% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture announced that a private exporter reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - According to the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October, reaching 632,341 tons. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 370,661 tons. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% compared to the previous month, reaching 142,953 tons, the lowest in two years. India also imported 5,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE. The decrease in soybean and sunflower oil imports led to a 13.3% decrease in India's total edible oil imports in November compared to the previous month, reaching a seven - month low of 1.15 million tons. In November, India imported a record - high 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China due to discounts offered by Chinese crushers due to oversupply [2]

在产地减产担忧、印度需求转向等利多驱动下，12月首周，国内棕榈油现货价格周环比上涨2.44%。后 期来看，随着产地减产预期逐步兑现，预计12月棕榈油价格或偏强运行。 11月底，产地天气扰动令市场对棕榈油产量下滑存在担忧，推动棕榈油价格走高。国内来看，截至12月 5日，国内24度棕榈油现货价格参考8831元／吨，周均价为8777元／吨，环比上涨209元／吨，涨幅 2.44%。 从产地市场来看，马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）最新数据显示，马来西亚11月毛棕榈油产量环比下降 4.38%，此前机构预估降幅为2.9%，产量降幅超出此前预期，对价格构成利多支撑。但马棕产量整体仍 处于相对高位，叠加当月马棕出口量环比大幅下降约15%，因此尽管产量降幅扩大，市场预计11月马棕 库存仍可能继续累积。 10月以来，受棕榈油价格持续下跌影响，国际豆油与棕榈油价差明显扩大。印度贸易商预计，该国11月 棕榈油进口量将环比增加4.6%至63万吨。另有市场消息显示，因全球豆油价格上涨，印度炼油厂已取 消约7万吨原定于12月至1月交付的豆油采购，转而寻求更具价格优势的替代油脂。目前印度市场棕榈油 价格较豆油低100美元／吨以上，性价比显著回 ...

根据一项调查，由于11月出口下降，马来西亚的棕榈油库存激增至六年多以来的最高水平。来自11份种 植园高管、贸易商和分析师估算的中值显示，库存较上月猛增10%至271万吨。这是自2019年4月以来的 最高水平，比一年前增加了47%。 12月4日，棕榈油期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约小幅走低1.19%，报8632.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 机构观点 中金财富期货：外盘油脂短期刺激因素退场，市场关注点转向MPOB月报。国内三大食用油库存高企， 豆油和菜油市场追涨动力受限。受隔夜CBOT豆油下挫拖累，国内油脂买盘人气预计整体降温，棕榈油 期货有望承压领跌。 铜冠金源期货：宏观方面，美国11月ADP就业数据疲软，12月降息继续升温，美元指数走弱；油价低位 震荡运行。基本面上，市场机构预计11月马棕油库存达到266万吨，上个月为246万吨，库存供应仍充 足。近期东南亚天气一定程度影响供应，后续产量预计减少，供应收缩提供支撑。预计短期棕榈油区间 震荡运行。 12月3日，全国港口24度棕榈油成交量300吨，环比上个交易日增加200.00%。 监测显示，12月3日，12、1月船期24度棕榈油进口CNF报价104 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Southeast Asian floods have limited impact on palm oil, with potential negative expectation gaps [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - On December 1, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to November 28, 2025, at 8710, 8670, and 8570 respectively [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu increased by 50 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 8470, 8610, and 8620 respectively [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 30 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 10080, 10130, and 10330 respectively [1] Futures Data - On December 1, 2025, the spread between the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 364, an increase of 18 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The spread between the main contracts of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1482, a decrease of 31 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 352; the soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 5469 to 5469; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 110 to 3855 [1] Important Information - Indonesia - Indonesia's GAPKI believes that floods in Sumatra have not had a significant impact on palm oil production [1] - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported a total of 19.49 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 7.83% increase compared to the same period last year. In October, 1.91 million tons of palm oil were exported, up from 1.38 million tons in September [1] Important Information - Malaysia - According to SPPOMA, the average yield per unit of palm oil in Malaysia in November decreased by 0.2% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 19.7% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 12.8% [1] - According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 10% [1] Other Information - In September, the U.S. usage of soybean oil for biofuel production rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the overall growth of Brazilian soybeans indicates that the yield potential in most regions will be lower than in the 2024/25 season. The current sowing progress is 86.97%, compared to 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [2] - As of the week ending October 16, the net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.108 million tons, in line with expectations, up from 0.785 million tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, down from 0.1 million tons the previous week. The export shipments of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.73 million tons, up from 0.693 million tons the previous week [2]

国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 线 型 www.itf.com.cn 00-8888-598 | | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/11/27 | | | | 农产品中心 | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | 期货从业证号 | 176 投资咨询证号 | | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号_ 30 陈凡生 | | | | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 2025/11/26 | | 2025/11/25 | 一口价变动 | | | | | | | | | | | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 天津 8480 | | 8560 | -80 | 5000 | | | | | | 8360 张家港 | | 8440 | -80 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 8290 | | 8370 B | -80 | 3000 | ...

官 方 网 线 型 www.itf.com.cn 00-8888-598 | | | | | | 油脂数据日报。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/11/24 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业证号 | 176 | 投资咨询证号 | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号。 | | | 国学 陈凡生 | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 2025/11/21 | | 2025/11/20 | 一口价变动 | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 一天津 8660 | | 8860 | -200 | 5000 | | | | | | 8540 张家港 | | 8740 | -200 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 8470 | | 8670 9 | -200 | 3000 | | | | | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Malay high-frequency production data shows an increase in production in the first half of November, creating a negative expectation gap, and palm oil is expected to run weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8640, and 8570 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8450, 8590, and 8640 respectively compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10240, 10290, and 10520 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was -398, a decrease of 10 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was 1598, a decrease of 69 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 17, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 730 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24777 (a decrease of 216), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5323 (unchanged) compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Production, Export, and Inventory - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit increased by 0.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production increased by 4.09% compared to the same period last month; the production in the first 10 days decreased by 4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 12.8% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 653,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [2] - **US Soybean Production and Export**: In the 2025/26 season, the predicted production of US soybeans is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 304 million bushels. The predicted export is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September prediction [2] - **Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed Oil Import**: The predicted import volume of rapeseed oil in November 2025 is 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Last week, the average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil ranged between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. Despite the import cost rising and then falling during the week, the price linkage of competing oils like soybean oil and concerns about rapeseed oil supply provided bottom - line support for the sector, preventing a unilateral decline [1]. - Globally, the abundant supply is the core negative factor. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach a historic high, exceeding 20 million tons for the first time, and Indonesia's production from January to September increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are maintained in the range of 1.2 - 1.25 million tons. Although the import volume is increasing, downstream提货 is stable, and the short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - The demand shows "structural improvement". The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is continuously repairing, and the high price of rapeseed oil due to supply shortage concerns boosts the sentiment of the entire oil sector, providing bottom - line support for palm oil. However, negative factors are also prominent, such as India's imports dropping to a five - year low and the weakening of crude oil prices suppressing the demand for palm oil in the biodiesel field, with no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - In the short term, palm oil futures will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil last week was in the range of 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The price linkage of competing oils and concerns about rapeseed oil supply supported the market, preventing a one - sided decline [1]. - Globally, supply is abundant. Malaysia's production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and Indonesia's January - September production increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are stable, and short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - Demand has "structural improvement" but also faces negative factors. The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is repairing, and rapeseed oil prices boost the sector. However, India's low imports and weak crude oil prices suppress demand, and there is no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - Short - term palm oil futures will fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is advised [1]. Factors to Watch - November palm oil production and export data in Malaysia, the repair of the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and India's import policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - date Quotation and Import Profit Calculation - For the December 24 - degree palm oil ship - date in South China, the CNF is 1,030, the forward exchange rate is 7.0807, the import cost is 8,745 yuan/ton, the disk price is 8,364 yuan/ton, and the profit against the disk is - 111 yuan/ton [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The disk price is the price of the main palm oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange from 11:00 - 11:30. The import cost does not include processing fees and is the gross profit against the disk. The profit against the disk = disk price - import cost. The forward exchange rate is the real - time exchange rate of foreign exchange futures on the Singapore Exchange. The import cost = import CIF price * exchange rate * tariff * VAT + port charges [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest, soybean oil oscillates between cost support and inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8600, and 8540 respectively, with a decrease of 10 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of palm oil futures (South China) was 5000, 4000, and 3000 in these regions [1]. - **First - grade soybean oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8390, and 8490 respectively, with an increase of 10 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9780, 9830, and 10100 respectively, with an increase of 30 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of rapeseed oil futures (East China) was 3000 [1][2]. Futures Data - **Price difference between soybean and palm oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was - 544, a decrease of 92 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Price difference between rapeseed and soybean oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was 1376, a decrease of 107 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Warehouse receipts**: On November 6, 2025, the palm oil warehouse receipts were 650 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 26460 (a decrease of 984), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5112 (a decrease of 1726) compared to November 5 [1]. Industry News - **Palm oil supply**: Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to reach 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the production is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. As of October 29, China's palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06% [2]. - **Soybean news**: Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement. StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre. Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil import**: The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.3%, due to the concentrated arrival of new - season rapeseed oil from Russia [2].

Report Summaries 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating suggests a range-bound market with a recommendation to wait and see [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current situation of the global oil and fat market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and production and export data from major producers. It also highlights policy changes in Indonesia and the production progress of soybeans in Brazil and the United States [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On October 15, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9420, 9260, and 9200 respectively, each down 80 from the previous day [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: Prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu on October 15, 2025, were 8420, 8520, and 8590 respectively, each down 30 from the previous day [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: Prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu on October 15, 2025, were 10150, 10190, and 10470 respectively, each down 30 from the previous day [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On October 15, 2025, it was - 1070, up 20 from the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On October 15, 2025, it was 1680, down 39 from the previous day [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 500; soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 850 to 26294; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained at 7590 [1] International Market Conditions - **India**: In September 2025, total vegetable oil imports were 1639743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports decreased significantly, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports increased [2] - **Indonesia**: Plans to raise the crude palm oil (CPO) export tax from 10% to 15% to fund the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. B50 is in the final testing stage, with full - scale testing expected in Q2 2026 and official implementation in the second half of the same year [2] - **Malaysia**: In September 2025, palm oil production was 184.12 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 1.06%. From October 1 - 10, 2025, production increased by 6.59% month - on - month. Exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.9% (ITS) and 19.4% (AmSpec) compared to the previous month [2] Domestic Market Conditions - **Soybean Production**: As of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 11.1%. As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the harvest rate was 19% [2]