油脂供应宽松
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油脂日报:油脂供应宽松,价格震荡运行-20250520
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 03:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and prices are fluctuating. Domestic oil mill operating rates are increasing with the arrival of soybeans, leading to increased market supply and a decline in basis. The US biodiesel policy is highly variable, and market expectations of a possible nuclear agreement between the US and Iran have caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, putting pressure on oil and fat prices [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,998.00 yuan/ton yesterday, with a环比 change of +14 yuan and a change rate of +0.18%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,776.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +22.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.28%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,361.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +84.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.91% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -50.00 yuan and a change rate of -0.58%, and the spot basis was P09 + 512.00, with a环比 change of -64.00 yuan. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,050.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of -0.49%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 274.00, with a环比 change of -62.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +80.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.85%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 179.00, with a环比 change of -4.00 yuan [1] Market News - From May 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.34%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41%, and the production increased by 8.50%. As of the week of May 15, the soybean harvest rate in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the 2024/25 season reached 98%, a 3% increase from the previous week, higher than 85% in the same period of the previous year and the five-year average of 92%. The soybean production in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 13.3 million tons, a 27.4% decrease from 18.6 million tons in the 2023/24 season. The soybean planting area is expected to be 6.77 million hectares, with an average yield per unit area of 1,957 kg per hectare. In the previous season, the planting area was 6.7 million hectares, and the average yield per unit area was 2,784 kg per hectare. Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the level of a 9.5% export tariff. The calculated reference price for June is 3,926.59 ringgit per ton, compared to 4,449.35 ringgit per ton in May, with a corresponding tariff of 10% [2]