Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in domestic palm oil and rapeseed oil purchases and the call to postpone B50 limit the upside space for oils. However, in the long term, the supply - demand of the three major oils is expected to tighten, laying the foundation for the rise of oil prices. The price performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be stronger than that in the third quarter [2][60]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, the support levels for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are 8400 - 8500, 9300 - 9400, and 9700 respectively. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and chasing highs should be done with caution. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of rapeseed oil 11 - 01 [3][61]. Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: Although palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, with the August inventory rising to 2.13 million tons but lower than market expectations, and the high - frequency data showing a decrease in production and an increase in exports in August, palm oil is expected to strengthen again after a small correction [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB July report shows that Malaysia's palm oil has strong supply and demand, but high domestic consumption leads to a lower - than - expected inventory increase. In August, export data improved, with a 16.5 - 21.3% increase in exports from August 1 - 15 compared to the previous month, and production growth slowed down, which is beneficial for price increases. However, seasonal inventory accumulation from September to October may disrupt prices [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The GAPKI May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in exports, with the inventory decreasing to 2.916 million tons. From June to July, production continued to decline, possibly due to the crackdown on illegal plantations. Domestic consumption and export demand are expected to remain strong, and the supply - demand is expected to maintain a long - term tight balance, driving up international palm oil prices. The main uncertainties come from lagging data and the risk of B50 postponement [8]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: In the short term, the supply is relatively abundant, with the inventory reaching 617,300 tons as of August 15. Recently, the import profit has improved, and traders are increasing purchases from August to November. In the long term, although the supply pressure from the origin is not large, the price may be affected by Malaysian seasonal inventory accumulation, Indian procurement demand fluctuations, and Indonesian biodiesel policies [13][17]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: The USDA August report was unexpectedly bullish, and the high - level of domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories, along with concerns about future soybean supply, lead to a short - term strong - side oscillation for soybean oil [18]. - **US Soybean Production**: The USDA August report increased the 25/26 US soybean yield but decreased the planting area by 2.5 million acres. The new - crop supply - demand has tightened, and there is a possibility of further tightening. If the yield drops to 52.5 bushels, the ending inventory will decline to a very low level of 200 million bushels [19]. - **US Soybean Demand**: In the biodiesel sector, the increase in demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is likely, but the increase may be lower than expected. In the export sector, as of August 18, there was no news of China's resumption of US soybean purchases, which may suppress US soybean prices [20]. - **South American Soybeans**: China continues to purchase a large amount of Brazilian soybeans. If China does not buy US soybeans, the cost of Brazilian soybeans will increase, and Argentina's soybean meal may be imported in large quantities in the fourth quarter [23]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to August, a large amount of South American soybeans entered China, leading to high inventories of domestic soybeans and soybean oil. In the short term, the supply is sufficient, but after October, if US soybeans cannot be imported, the supply will tighten, which is beneficial for soybean oil destocking [23]. Rapeseed Oil - **Price Fluctuation**: The price of rapeseed oil has fluctuated significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed. After the initial sharp rise, it declined due to the risk warning from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and news of alternative imports [38]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: After August 14, the import of Canadian rapeseed will decrease significantly. Although there are plans to increase imports from other countries, they cannot fully make up for the supply shortage. The supply - demand of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, which is beneficial for price increases. However, policy adjustments and alternative imports may disrupt prices [40]. - **Impact on Canada**: China is the largest buyer of Canadian rapeseed. After the anti - dumping review, the export demand of Canadian rapeseed will face a significant decline, and the supply - demand will shift from slightly loose to significantly loose or even severely surplus, suppressing the price of Canadian rapeseed [50]. - **International Trade**: After the anti - dumping decision, China's dependence on Canadian rapeseed products will decrease, while its dependence on Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other countries will increase. Canada will increase its dependence on the US, UAE, and the EU [54].